Monday NBA play and write up

[pt101]

Spurs/Nugs under 204.5 - 4 units

Line is down to 201.5 now which I would have no problem playing. The play angles are 1) After playing a recent game where shooting %?s and scoring were up, these two teams will be quite familiar with each others tendencies, thus limiting opponents opportunities. 2) Spurs playing a b2b and 4 in 5, will not likely, either coaching staff wise, nor individually as players, want to get into a track meet. 3) When the champion Spurs desperately need a win they rely on their defense, and win ugly. 4) This game will likely be war. Nuggets have a season 2-1 edge, winning the last two match ups. Denver is fighting for the 8th playoff spot, and along with this being a double revenge game, the Spurs really need a win to keep up with the Lakers for the 1 seed. A relaxed game environment doesn?t appear likely here.

 

[Freddog5]

Good luck.
I agree with you on all counts.
I like Den +7 myself

 

[jmizeus]

gl luck on the game. but why post the number @ 204' when its 201'. i can see if it were maybe a half-to a 1 pt diff.but its not. not bashing you but that is a big move. normally when i post a play its right after i bet it. gl on the play and would you still bet it at 201'?

 

[pt101]

gl luck on the game. but why post the number @ 204' when its 201'. i can see if it were maybe a half-to a 1 pt diff.but its not. not bashing you but that is a big move. normally when i post a play its right after i bet it. gl on the play and would you still bet it at 201'?

Because that's the actual line I played it at and when writing the post this morning I noticed the line movement and let everyone know I would have played it at the lower number anyway. Guess I wasn't as clear as I thought I was.

This is a situational play, and I would play it regardless of the number, really. Just lower the play amount incrementally as the line drops. If the total was set at 197, for example, I would probably play it for 1-2 units.

Personally I think we have a 95-92 type game.

 

[jmizeus]

thanks pt and gl on the play

 

[jmizeus]

think you were headed in the right direction here.but spurs didnt play the defense you would have thought.i think your angle on this game was right on except no defense tonite. but bottom line was a huge line move on this one,sometimes it dont matter but i like to stay away from games when a move is that big. gl on the next one im sure you will hit it

 

[jmizeus]

that 2nd qtr was the killer no doubt! how did they score 13 points in last 43 seconds? that qtr hurt but you missed,gl and stay focused