monday ncaa basketball ........

gman2

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looking over my stuff, and have come to the realization that ive been making way too many plays in hoops right now. im not being nearly as selective as i should be and im playing too many games rinky-dink fu.ck-around plays that have cut into profits from my bigger plays and mac plays. gonna try and be more discriminating for a little while.

notre dame irish (pk)

two things stand out to me on this game.

one: this is syracuse's first game outside the state of new york all season. they've played two true road games and they've both been against grossly inferior foes (st.johns and siena). obviously theyre experienced and well-coached, but theyve really benefitted from staying within the empire state from november until what will be monday january 10th, a span of sixteen games.

two: free throw shooting. syracuse frequently overcomes their free throw deficiencies by simply throwing more athletes at you and suffocating you with their zone on the defensive end. well, notre dame can shoot the ball (thomas, quinn, and falls all shoot 39%+ from 3pt range) and they also knock down their free throws (almost 74% as a team). syracuse is 66% as a team and wouldnt be even remotely close to that if it wasnt for mcnamara. i think the oklahoma state game was the perfect example of how free throw shooting really hurts this team in close games. warrick looked almost scared to shoot because he didnt want to get fouled and go to the line (where, incidentally, he was 5-13 against osu).

to me, notre dame is almost an obligatory play given those two variables mentioned above. syracuse is certainly the better team overall, but i think they will struggle in this first 'legitimate' road game of the season. notre dame is the tennessee of the big east: a talented squad capable of beating anyone in the conference on any given night, but theyre also capable of laying an egg. im aware of that. but theyre playing good basketball since getting worked by depaul a month ago.
 

gman2

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unlv rebels (+7)

utah is smashing teams at home right now, but these vegas/utah games have really been tight in recent years. its normally one of the better matchups in the mwc. obviously contrasting styles, although utah is getting out and running a bit more this season. four of the last five meetings have been decided by 6 points or less. i know this is kind of a transition year for the rebs but theyve started to play pretty well of late. if you really look at it, they've got 5 losses but only one of those (st.mary's in vegas) could be considered a 'bad loss' (as good as smc is, cant excuse that home loss). but otherwise, vegas has lost to texas, nevada, pepperdine, and oklahoma state -- 4 teams with a combined 46-11 mark. unlv is doing a good job on the glass this year and theyve improved a bit at the line from recent seasons. i think this game stays close the whole way.
 

Irish

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With you on the Irish tonight
Best of luck, nice write up

GL
Irish
 

Scott4USC

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gman2

I apologize to being a little off topic in your thread but I have question for you. This question is sorta directed for everybody who caps NCAA HOOPS but I singled you out because you always take the time to give great write-ups and you seem very knowledgable on a wide range of teams. You don't seem to cap strictly on formula/numbers. I could be wrong and maybe you fne tune your capping to only a couple conferences but I think I see plays from you from wide range of conferences. Anyways, hee is my question.

How do you know so much about so many teams in NCAA Hoops? There are what, 250+ Div. 1a teams. CFB is my best and most profitable sport but 100 1a teams is all you have to cap/know about. I was looking into trying to cap NCAA Hoops for fun (very small bets) but my knowledge is very limited. Of course you could single any game out and search and learn about both teams. But when you look at a basketball card say on a saturday, how the hell do you cap it all? Maybe the answer to my question is through years of watching/capping NCAA hoops, you just gradually learn little about most of the programs. I dunno. It just amazes me how people can cap NCAA hoops if you don't just solely focus on couple conferences.

BTW, thanks fo always giving info behind your picks. I appreciate it.
 

vyrus858

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IVe always wondered the same Scott...guys like Box and One and Gman seem to know some things that I didnt know you could find on the internet lol...I believe it is because their very well tuned in all sports they wager on and keep notes and records and jot down things they notice from teams (like gman has shown many times), or they know alot about the type of players on the team from recruiting standpoint and know how many of the kids will develop (like Box, in my opinion)...it definatley is the TOUGHEST sport to cap because of all the games but the great thing is it is also where you can make hte most money, because many times Vegas cant catch up to over 100 gams on a given day...gl
 
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gman2

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scott:

youre right, i definitely dont cap 'formulas and numbers' like some guys do. its actually funny you mentioned that particular point because ive always been interested in how guys make their power numbers or how they go about taking a more formulaic approach. while i dont use that method, ive always been intrigued by how some guys establish ratings and numbers for each team.

a lot of my approach is basically the application of what i know from experience and basically having been around college sports on a high enough level, along with just keeping in touch with friends who have played in alot of these conferences (acc, pac10, mac, horizon, big 10 along with some other smaller ones.)

i have no explanation for my retention of all these division-1 hoops teams. its just something i really enjoy. all my friends and people i speak with most have all played or are playing on some level so, naturally, its all we talk about. i guess the downside of this is that i probably am not as diversified as i should be, lol. you will never ever see me in the political forum or debating any stuff like that.....because i have zero clue about what goes on with that part of the world. i know it sounds bad, but its true. that shit doesnt interest me.

as far as the actual capping goes, i know some legitimately cap every game and if their numbers differ from the line by 'x amount', then its a play for them. i guess i almost take a backward approach to it. ill look at a card and can pretty much know what im playing within 5 minutes. then ill go back into it and actually cap it to make sure my reasoning for the original inclination to play it is sound.

i enjoy discussing this part of the betting process, but the last thing i want to do is pontificate on a board with so many solid guys. which leads me to a final thing ill mention: ive done even better since coming to jacks because this forum almost offers a way to 'check' my capping. for example, i trust my stuff greatly in the mac, but spang is one of the sharpest cappers ive come across and he knows akron inside and out and is dynamite in the conference as well. it helps to be able to bounce opinions off of him and trade info with a guy like him. same with sun tzu in the big 12. the guy just quietly dominates the conference and hes helped me immensely in a conference that i never used to bet all that much.

to me, its about being a sponge. taking note of everything i read. everything i see and hear. all season long your usc threads had a ton of useful stuff that i applied to my pac10 capping. just because i didnt always agree with your inherent trojan bias didnt mean that i didnt take all kinds of applicable capping info from your posts.

id add more, but sometimes over the 'net, well-intentioned stuff comes across as being pompous so perhaps ill leave it at that. but i always like shooting the shit about this kind of stuff. good luck
 

Mr Hockey

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GL2N Gman

I see some interesting #'s for tomorrow's games especially Missouri vs Oklahoma State.
 

vyrus858

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gman2 said:
.....because i have zero clue about what goes on with that part of the world. i know it sounds bad, but its true. that shit doesnt interest me.


Amen to that...Sports is so positive and delighting (except for those 0-3 and 0-4 days lol), why waste time arguing about why a war should take place and the grisley, horrific tragedies that surround it
 

caper

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your point on nd's 3 pt shooting is a strong arguement for breaking the vaunted orange zone D...and utah supposed to be starting a rearranged lineup tonite, no clue as to impact...looks like i'm on okie, iona, chatt tonite, gl caper
 

xusnhtus

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i agree with ya Gman, personally i'm awful at capping football (my reason i believe is that i don't like football) But basketball i live for from coaching 5/6th grade to refereeing high school so i follow the talented kids all the way to college or if they are really good NBA to if they have the fortitude(& ice in their veins) coaching. This will date me but i remember meeting a 7th grade kid in Lansing that blew me away with his passion for basketball, his name Earvin Johnson. i knew right then that i too had basketball in my blood(wish i had the talent in my blood!).
I'll be watching Benton Harbor,Mi vs Battle Creek Central next weds, & i'm sure i'll be surprised or excited by their play.
I follow basketball all year long, i read recruiting newsletters or Sporting News's Mike DeCourcy when everyone else is watching baseball of football.
i become a little depressed after NCAA final game & a little more depressed after NBA's Champion is crown (thank god for AAU).
i feel for anyone that is similar to me.
Good Luck on Yodeling Amish got $ on em too, and rebels
 

xusnhtus

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vyrus858 said:
Amen to that...Sports is so positive and delighting , why waste time arguing about why a war should take place and the grisley, horrific tragedies that surround it


so true vyrus, i need to read your quote every morning.
 

HeavyHitter

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like the avatar...graduating class of 1998 at the good ole SUNY A...always look forward to your plays...good luck this CBB season
 

Sun Tzu

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Not my best Big 12 start as I am batting around 500 so far this year but thanks for the props GMan. SOunds like I cap like GMan, just write less. I know my card in about 2 minutes, sometimes before the line even comes out. Situations, knowing what public does with certain teams and so on. I have always found college hoops the easiest to bet. Got crushed when I first did it in 92, primarily because I played 30 games every Saturday and bet the chalk way too much. Know a conference and bet it. Look close at any home dog that is a remotely decent team. Look for sandwiches - if for example No Carolina is playing Duke, at Clemson, then NcState at home that middle game is almost always a play to me. If the line smells there is usually a reason. I got burned on texas Tech fading Saturday but would bet that game same way every time. And so on. Bottom line to me, strangely enough, is there aint much magic to it.
 

DrTrivia

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xusnhtus said:
I'll be watching Benton Harbor,Mi vs Battle Creek Central next weds, & i'm sure i'll be surprised or excited by their play.

Living "next door" to Benton Harbor...you will find this team not only exciting, but talented as well. When I first moved to this area, worked for local radio station, did color and play-by-play for local area HS Sports (Primarily F-ball & B-ball). To this day, I still believe its the "purest" and most fun to watch.

And on a personal note Gman, I too am having a tough year, (different personal circumstances are preventing me from doing a decent job of 'cappin')...but as Scott said...You, Box, Ts, Spang, and Scott too, just to name a few have added so much to this forum with your insight and information that even when you're on a "bad" streak, I'd still trust your reasoning, just for the mere fact that you're not a "power numbers" 'capper and play alot from the gut, which I think alot of us do. Things will turn around. GL :toast:
_______

Doc
 

Scott4USC

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I too would be interested in how people calculate their own power numbers. What formula do they use?

I am the same way in CFB after looking at the card I know right away who I like or if a strong play jumps out at me.

In hoops where I am not really a strong capper and this is where I rely on madjack cappers, I prefer to play (and make my big wagers) on favorites at -3 or less or underdogs. I sorta like it when the team is trying to win my bet. My biggest mistake in hoops and I seem to never learn is always taking the more talented team -1 or -2 on the road against a somewhat lesser opponent. ALWAYS SEEM TO GET BURNED! I never give enough credit to home court advantage.

An example is Iona over Can. last night although I had no $$$ on it.
 
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Bill

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This is a fun and educational thread. Thanks to all for sharing their capping processes. It helps someone like me who mostly coatails you guys.

Again, thank you.

Bill
 
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