nevada- las vegas (+6.5)
nevada- las vegas moneyline (+240)
always am amazed at how this matchup always is played at the pace of the home team. no matter how hard unlv tries, the utes just beat the shit out of them in the half court when the games are in utah. but then when the utes comes to vegas, they get caught up in the unlv running game and lose more often than not, even if they have a size advantage inside (which is the case this year). i know utah is playing outstanding basketball right now, but to be laying a good chunk of points is risky, especially to a team that, while inconsistent, was the preseason favorite to win the conference and is capable of winning going away (or losing going away for that matter) on any given night. i think theres a ton of value on unlv tonight.
butler bulldogs under
wright state has played uncharacteristically bad defense the last few games, so im expecting them to really get after it tonight, especially against a team who they always play close, low-scoring games with. since biancardi took over at wright state, these two teams have played games of 59-54, 51-39, and 54-53. these games are played at a sloooowww tempo. butler is starting to play better again, and they kinda pissed away the first meeting, leading by 11 in the 2h at home and letting wsu sneak it out. not even seeing 120 points in this game
everything else that is posted below is totally unrelated to today's games so those who dont care to read any further can stop here and click on other posts pertaining to the matchups tonight.
have been out of town since early saturday so havent been around to post. will try to close the book on the detroit/cleveland state game by simply saying it was the worst collapse ive endured betting college hoops....ever. to completely blow a game in which you led by 24 in the 2nd half, and also have it be against a team you had beaten 10 straight times is bad enough. but the worst part about the collapse is that detroit allows 61 points a game for the season. they play some of the best defense in the entire country. and they got outscored 46-18 in the 2nd half? thats almost impossible to fathom.
very quickly....im not trying to single anyone out, but to address gjn's reaction to the play/game -- if you genuinely feel there is (your quote) "something wrong with [my] picks" and that i should "bet against myself" because i am the titanic, then certainly you can have your opinion but i will keep capping games the same way i have. why the hell would i change what im doing? obviously im capping SOMETHING right if i have had my two biggest plays of the season up by 21 at halftime (detroit laying 1) and up by 17 at halftime (toledo vs. bg), and both were on the road.
would i be a smarter handicapper if i bet ON the teams who came back from 17-point and 21-point halftime deficits?
i doubt it. that would mean that i got pretty damn lucky and i would be very worried about how i was wagering on teams who consistently get blown out in the 1st half. and im sure anyone who followed in that type of situation would not be too comfortable laying points in a game they trailed at the half by 20 points. would anyone be saying, "wow, what a great game of the year call" if i had csu or bowling green in those fluky comebacks? again, i highly doubt it.
bottom line: sometimes, unfathomable bullshit happens.....once every five seasons, a team who allows 60ppg will blow a 24-pt 2nd half lead. im certainly not happy with it. i know perry watson aint too fu.ckin pleased with it. and im sure other detroit bettors are pissed too.
i certainly cant explain how ive had the unfortunate luck of being on the wrong end of:
toledo blowing a 17 pt halftime lead.
rutgers blowing an 18 pt halftime lead.
providence blowing an 11pt lead with under 10:00 left.
and i certainly cant explain detroit blowing a 24 point 2nd half lead.
its very, very hard to blow those kinds of leads, even if you TRY. in a rare case, a team might have a lull and get their lead cut to 7 or 8 points, but then they take back control of the game and the opposition just runs out of gas. but these have been full-blown collapses by all four teams. all within 3 weeks.
all im gonna do is keep capping the way im capping. some people on the board cap games solely to try and get a following of coattailers and to be king of the mountain.
not to sound overly altruistic, but i cap and write up games so that i can help guys maybe get a better grasp of some of these smaller teams, and maybe they can take some info and apply it to a bet down the road. and then hope in return that the help is reciprocated. and it almost always is -- whether it be guys capping the big 12, the west coast conference, the pac10, the wac...whatever. i let people read my stuff and form their own opinions. and whatever that opinion is, theyre entitled to it. even you gjn.
also, im not posting any of this because i want a pat on the ass or an ego prop. just felt it kinda necessary to address what gjn said.
ultimately, the right side is the side who cashes their betting tickets.
i think it comes down to this:
id rather lose a fluke game or two (even if it is on a substantial wager) but know that my capping approach is solid and likely to win money down the road .....
....than i would to win a big GOY, get a handful of the "good job gman" posts, but really just be damn lucky to cash that GOY because an improbable sequence of events took place and i caught a big break, but would be losing money in the coming weeks because i wasnt doing my homework correctly.
maybe that makes sense. maybe it doesnt.
regardless, im still confident in knowing that, while i dont think im better than anyone, id put my work up against anyone else's and feel good about my chances.
g
nevada- las vegas moneyline (+240)
always am amazed at how this matchup always is played at the pace of the home team. no matter how hard unlv tries, the utes just beat the shit out of them in the half court when the games are in utah. but then when the utes comes to vegas, they get caught up in the unlv running game and lose more often than not, even if they have a size advantage inside (which is the case this year). i know utah is playing outstanding basketball right now, but to be laying a good chunk of points is risky, especially to a team that, while inconsistent, was the preseason favorite to win the conference and is capable of winning going away (or losing going away for that matter) on any given night. i think theres a ton of value on unlv tonight.
butler bulldogs under
wright state has played uncharacteristically bad defense the last few games, so im expecting them to really get after it tonight, especially against a team who they always play close, low-scoring games with. since biancardi took over at wright state, these two teams have played games of 59-54, 51-39, and 54-53. these games are played at a sloooowww tempo. butler is starting to play better again, and they kinda pissed away the first meeting, leading by 11 in the 2h at home and letting wsu sneak it out. not even seeing 120 points in this game
everything else that is posted below is totally unrelated to today's games so those who dont care to read any further can stop here and click on other posts pertaining to the matchups tonight.
have been out of town since early saturday so havent been around to post. will try to close the book on the detroit/cleveland state game by simply saying it was the worst collapse ive endured betting college hoops....ever. to completely blow a game in which you led by 24 in the 2nd half, and also have it be against a team you had beaten 10 straight times is bad enough. but the worst part about the collapse is that detroit allows 61 points a game for the season. they play some of the best defense in the entire country. and they got outscored 46-18 in the 2nd half? thats almost impossible to fathom.
very quickly....im not trying to single anyone out, but to address gjn's reaction to the play/game -- if you genuinely feel there is (your quote) "something wrong with [my] picks" and that i should "bet against myself" because i am the titanic, then certainly you can have your opinion but i will keep capping games the same way i have. why the hell would i change what im doing? obviously im capping SOMETHING right if i have had my two biggest plays of the season up by 21 at halftime (detroit laying 1) and up by 17 at halftime (toledo vs. bg), and both were on the road.
would i be a smarter handicapper if i bet ON the teams who came back from 17-point and 21-point halftime deficits?
i doubt it. that would mean that i got pretty damn lucky and i would be very worried about how i was wagering on teams who consistently get blown out in the 1st half. and im sure anyone who followed in that type of situation would not be too comfortable laying points in a game they trailed at the half by 20 points. would anyone be saying, "wow, what a great game of the year call" if i had csu or bowling green in those fluky comebacks? again, i highly doubt it.
bottom line: sometimes, unfathomable bullshit happens.....once every five seasons, a team who allows 60ppg will blow a 24-pt 2nd half lead. im certainly not happy with it. i know perry watson aint too fu.ckin pleased with it. and im sure other detroit bettors are pissed too.
i certainly cant explain how ive had the unfortunate luck of being on the wrong end of:
toledo blowing a 17 pt halftime lead.
rutgers blowing an 18 pt halftime lead.
providence blowing an 11pt lead with under 10:00 left.
and i certainly cant explain detroit blowing a 24 point 2nd half lead.
its very, very hard to blow those kinds of leads, even if you TRY. in a rare case, a team might have a lull and get their lead cut to 7 or 8 points, but then they take back control of the game and the opposition just runs out of gas. but these have been full-blown collapses by all four teams. all within 3 weeks.
all im gonna do is keep capping the way im capping. some people on the board cap games solely to try and get a following of coattailers and to be king of the mountain.
not to sound overly altruistic, but i cap and write up games so that i can help guys maybe get a better grasp of some of these smaller teams, and maybe they can take some info and apply it to a bet down the road. and then hope in return that the help is reciprocated. and it almost always is -- whether it be guys capping the big 12, the west coast conference, the pac10, the wac...whatever. i let people read my stuff and form their own opinions. and whatever that opinion is, theyre entitled to it. even you gjn.
also, im not posting any of this because i want a pat on the ass or an ego prop. just felt it kinda necessary to address what gjn said.
ultimately, the right side is the side who cashes their betting tickets.
i think it comes down to this:
id rather lose a fluke game or two (even if it is on a substantial wager) but know that my capping approach is solid and likely to win money down the road .....
....than i would to win a big GOY, get a handful of the "good job gman" posts, but really just be damn lucky to cash that GOY because an improbable sequence of events took place and i caught a big break, but would be losing money in the coming weeks because i wasnt doing my homework correctly.
maybe that makes sense. maybe it doesnt.
regardless, im still confident in knowing that, while i dont think im better than anyone, id put my work up against anyone else's and feel good about my chances.
g
