monday ncaa hoops

[loophole]

66-50 overall, 5-1 double plays. getting in early on one:


rider +9 *double play*: going to go ahead and get this one in as the line has already dropped a point and a half this morning. this line appears so off to me when i first saw it last night i thought it was a mistake. lappas has a mess in amherst. umass has already lost at home to central connecticut, and just got beat by lafayette this weekend in springfield. they shot 35% vs lafayette, and they are under 40% for the year. the minutemen average around 61% from the charity stripe, have way more turnovers than assists, and are being outrebounded as a team. highly touted uconn transfer marcus cox has been a bust - 5.9 ppg, 17-53 fg, 2-20 on treys, and a stunning 25 to's by himself. the point guard experiment with former a-10 rookie of the year anthony anderson has also been a failure, and both forward positions are still unsettled with no one really stepping up. rider has been playing much more solidly as a team, and is coming off a rout of coppin st and a nice come-from-behind win over princeton in trenton. umass is laying way more than home court ad to a better team - an excellent betting opportunity.


box and one - if you're out there, give me your take here if i've missed anything on these two teams. this line makes me think i might have overlooked something.

 

[Valuist]

Have to agree on this one. I see the line is down to 8.5 at some outlets. Rider plays good D allowing just 38% on FG while UMass is a poor 46% against. Rider also has a big edge at the line, 77% to 67%. Both teams played on Saturday but UMass had a much more stressful game, losing 54-52 at home to a forgettable Lafayette team.

 

[Heyward]

Agreed. When I was doing my lines last night, I came up with UMass by 2 and I was worried I may be giving them too much credit for home court even then. It's at +8.5 now and I'm going to go ahead and get it. Good luck.

 

[loophole]

let one get away . . .

let one get away . . .

had to go into the office for a few hours this morning, and was going to put in was -12 when i got home. just called and found out the line is now -15-. really liked the play as this game looks to be a huskie rout, but at the current number most of the line value is gone. if you can still get this game around -12, i recommend you get on it.

i do see one other game that looks good:


w ky -3-: pacific is rebuilding after losing four starters and nine lettermen from last year's team. they have beaten lamar, a then woefully shorthanded san francisco, and a bad san jose st team without their best scorer. they have an impressive home record s/u, but are less than stellar ats, especially as a home dog. even after shooting over 50% against san jose, they are still under 40% for the year, and prone to the turnover to boot. w ky's young team is starting to come around now that everyone has learned their role without marcus on the court. they have won three of their last four, the only loss to what we all know to be a solid e was team. this will be the hilltoppers first game in of a seven game road trip and is a layover stop on their way to a holiday tournament in hawaii. a loss tonight would be a huge setback to this young team, and i expect we'll see their best effort in this game. in terms of athleticism this game is a mismatch.

 

[Box and one]

loophole,your on the money with Rider.Lappas is already wearing out his welcome.I love Johnson at the pt.He could start for any Big 10.Big 12,team.Rider was one of my 10 teams I listed in the beggining of the season that you could get some value on going against.Porter was a monster in the MAAC.Wicks on defense was a stopper. Both are gone.But Young is nice and really stepped up.Reed at 6'10 is a workhorse.Taylor has been scoring.Harnum is a good coach.Really does a nice job adjusting during a game.
The reason it is a lean for me is Mass is capable of dominating them.Look what they did to Conn in the 1st half.Rodgers inside is much more athletic then anyone Rider has.Micah can also dominate.Everyone is still waiting including his former HS coach who I know personally.
I'll grab the 8 but Mass has so much more talent.But of course that doesn't prove anything.Look at Princeton-Texas the other day.Small lean on Rider.
GL