monday night football...week 4

[cooz3]

record on posted plays...14 wins-10 losses-3 pushes

denver vs. baltimore... could be a classic letdown game for denver...coming off of games with rams/niners/bills...but this isnt sunday at 4pm in a non televised game...this is monday night football..the only game on tv tonight in front of a national audience...

does baltimore at home on monday night as a 8 point dog (currently) scare me????...as a bettor yes but common sense wise ..absolutely not....this team has done NADA....thier defense will keep them in the game a bit ...but to many 3 and outs will wear them out...and denver will try and establish the run ...they may not be able to early but eventually after being on the field constantly baltimore d will give up some yardage..

baltimores offense will struggle...they will not run with much effectiveness against a unit that has held some good offenses in check.....eventually redmon will be asked to make some plays and thats a recipe for disaster...i expect baltimore to try and keep it as simple as possible for most of the game...but dont be surprised if they come out throwing...something about Billick actually saying they will give the ball to thier back for over 30 touches bothers me...especially in the situation the ravens are in on national tv...and they have absolutely nothing to lose by doing so....and they may catch denver by surprise by doing so

so the more this game is analyzed with a bettors eye..worrying about why the number isnt higher, the public is on denver etc...game looks to easy...the more i think will confuse us...

lets use our common sense on this one...baltimore may be one of the worst teams in the NFL...Denver potentially could be one of the better teams...yes they are on the road...yes its monday night..and yes balt. is a home dog ...but give me a solid angle why denver should not blow this team out...

i may not play this one but im leaning towards DENVER ..undecided on the total...

cooz

 

[ddubs]

Re: monday night football...week 4

lets use our common sense on this one

Cooz, always enjoy reading your post as you always put down what's going on in your mind in deciding your plays.

I agree with Mizer here that with MNF a lot of it is luck. On SNF and MNF you just have to expect the unexpected. I wouldn't be surprised to see Den-10 by game time.

On paper, Den should absolutely crush Balt. With Anderson and Portis as the 1-2 punch in the back field, Sharp, McCaffrey (the Energizer bunny....or bronco ) and Rod Smith as the receiving corp, plus the anemic Balt offense (what the streak now? 7 straight scoreless qtrs?? 22 straight possessions?? ouch!). The only positive Balt has is their D which hasn't allowed any TD's inside the red zone. Besides that, it just looks way too one-sided. But Balt is no stranger to prime-time games, and they will be playing at home with a nothing-to-lose attitude. I teased the game at -1/under43.5, and will probably stick with it as the only play.

You want a solid angle to play Balt?? Can't give you one. I won't play heavy road favs on MNF, but I also couldn't find any good reasons to back Balt, even if the line is at 10.

Great call on Minn/Sea Over last nite, who would have thought that game would end up like that??

GLTonite

 

[cooz3]

dubs ...i think your tease is a good one...the only thing i cant get a grasp on is the total in this one...if both of us can see baltimore taking a "what do we have to lose?" attitude...why wont they throw..gimmick plays...onside kicks..things like that...the obvious angle on this game is baltimore wont score...but im not convinced (yet) they wont pull out some funny stuff tonight

now your point about the baltimore d..bending but not breaking in the redzone....

thier two opponents...

tampa and carolina...

i dont care what carolina's record is...their offense doesnt scare me one bit...thier defense is thier strong point in my opinion...and if memory serves me correct it was wienke playing qb against them

as for tampa...you dont know which offense is going to show and against baltimore they became one-dimensional...they could not run at all...and if you make tampa one-dimensional i think you you can hold them at bay (as with almost any team)...

so the question becomes can they stop denver from running???...maybe for a while ...but not the whole game...denvers offense is much more balanced than carolina and tampa...and will eventual wear them down

cooz

 

[And_One]

who would think the Lions would win SU against 3-0 Saints ???

Baltimore has nothing to lose....but a win here will make their fan happy.....I'm not saying that the Ravens will win SU but their chance of covering +9 is much better than Denver.

If I had to play this game I would play the Ravens. It would be better just to pass the game.

GL!

 

[cooz3]

i hear ya and one...but detroit is actually on a great run as a home dog against the spread..... ...as far as a win outright in that game..no i certainly didnt think they would win outright....but did you think the tampa line was a little to easy yesterday?? ...i did and didnt play it....your point is valid about baltimore getting points at home on monday night....the dreaded monday night dog...and the number keeps rising ..which is obviously troublesome..im undecided if there will be a play...but i seriously think baltimore is a very ..very ...bad team...is it out of the question you wont see a 34-0 denver...game tonight?......cooz

 

[cooz3]

after all this talk ...im not doing a thing....line up to 9.5 ...10 at some locals....might take baltimore for the principal of it....other than that good luck to everyone...just feel there are going to be tons of better games this week and will hold off...sit back drink a few and watch

best of luck tonight...

cooz