Scouting reports from the "Worldwide Leader".....
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance scouting report on this week's matchup between the Jets and Falcons. Now they're back with a second look.
? RB Curtis Martin gives the Jets their best chance of pulling off an upset at Atlanta on Monday night. The Falcons are undersized up front defensively and their lack of depth at the defensive tackle position behind starters Rod Coleman and Chad Lavalais is negatively affecting this group. Coleman and Lavalais are quick, one-gap interior defensive linemen that will do a great job of getting upfield and disrupting when fresh, but they can only play with a high motor for so long. Coleman and Lavalais are undersized and lack the base to anchor at the point of attack. So, when worn down, they become vulnerable to teams running directly at them.
Making matters worse, the Falcons linebacker corps has been shuffled around due to the injury of MLB Ed Hartwell, who was the biggest and most stout run defender on this unit. In his absence, Keith Brooking has had to move from SLB to MLB, Demorrio Williams has had to move from WLB to SLB, and rookie fifth-round pick Michael Boley has been thrust into a starting role at WLB. The Falcons are extremely susceptible to a strong rushing attack, which makes Martin and the Jets' offensive line the keys to Monday night's game. In order to capitalize, the Jets must avoid turnovers, stay dedicated to the run and give Martin at least 25 carries.
? The problem facing the Jets, however, is the inconsistency of their passing game. On one hand, QB Vinny Testaverde has the arm strength and the speed at wide receiver with Laveranues Coles and Justin McCareins to take several vertical shots via the air. On the other hand, Testaverde is immobile and has a long history of throwing the ball up for grabs when things fall apart around him. Offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger will want to take advantage of his potential to hit the home run in the passing game, but he also knows that his best chance of winning this game is to slow down the tempo, control the clock, and continue to pound away at an extremely susceptible Falcons run defense. As such, Heimerdinger's game plan and play-calling could affect Monday night's outcome more so than maybe any other coach on either team.
? Atlanta LDC DeAngelo Hall's ability to hold up on an island in man-to-man coverage gives his team a big advantage in this game. As noted, the Falcons' defensive front seven is overmatched versus Martin and the Jets rushing attack. However, because Hall has proven on a weekly basis this season that he is capable of holding up one-on-one versus an opponents' No. 1 receiver, it gives defensive coordinator Ed Donatell the freedom to be more aggressive with SS Keion Carpenter and FS Bryan Scott, both of whom do a good job of supporting the run.
Until the Jets prove they can beat the Falcons vertically through the air, look for Donatell to use a lot of "man-free" coverage with Carpenter typically cheated up as a fourth linebacker across from the tight end and Scott playing a deep centerfield-type coverage, cheated a few steps over to RDC Jason Webster's side in order to give Webster deep support versus Coles or McCareins. An extra defender in "the box" won't solve the Falcons problems versus the run, but it certainly will make blocking assignments much more difficult for a Jets' offensive line that is without Kevin Mawae, who is lost for the season with a torn triceps.
? As much as the Falcons are struggling to defend the run, their pass rush pressure has been outstanding. Only one team in the NFL (Colts) has more sacks than the Falcons after six games. Coleman leads the team with six sacks and the defensive line as a whole has notched 15 of the team's 20 sacks thus far. Donatell is also doing a fine job of mixing in the blitz in order to overload opposing offensive lines, as LBs Brooking and Williams both have two sacks and FS Scott has also chipped in with one sack. Against a shuffled Jets offensive line and an immobile quarterback in Testaverde, look for Donatell to turn up the heat even more this week.
? Brian Finneran has emerged as the Falcons' No. 2 wide receiver opposite second-year pro Michael Jenkins. Finneran lacks explosive quickness and initial burst, but he has deceptive deep speed and his size makes him a vertical threat due to his ability to win on the "jump ball". In watching recent film of the Falcons' offense, it seems that Finneran is the wide receiver that QB Michael Vick has become most comfortable with in terms of timing. TE Alge Crumpler remains Vick's favorite target and Jenkins flashes occasional explosiveness, but Finneran has added some consistency to the perimeter passing game for Vick in the last few games.
? So far this season, Jets LDC Ty Law has been the only cornerback that defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson can count on when left alone in man-to-man coverage. As a result, Henderson has been able to cheat up a safety and be more aggressive in terms of his blitz package, knowing that Law is fine on one side and that the other safety can cheat over in order to provide deep-support for RDC David Barrett. If Ty Law (questionable, back/groin) is unable to play -- or is less effective than usual -- it will severely limit Henderson's options in those regards.
? The Jets have a good deal of talent along their defensive front seven, but the unit desperately misses departed NT Jason Ferguson. In his place, James Reed simply has not been able to control gaps and protect linebackers versus the run, which is resulting in MLB Jonathan Vilma and WLB Eric Barton making plays two and three yards deep instead of at the line of scrimmage or in the opponents' backfield.
The Falcons' offensive line is doing a terrific job of opening holes for RBs Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett. The unit lacks elite overall talent but each individual is efficient, taking great angles, using leverage and working hard to finish blocks. Even if Duckett (questionable, ankle) is unable to play, look for the combination of Dunn and Vick to be entirely too much for the Jets' struggling run defense to handle over the course of four quarters.
Special Teams
The Jets have had some serious issues on special teams so far this season. Rookie PT Ben Graham and rookie KOR Justin Miller have actually been pleasant surprises. Graham is averaging a solid 43.8 yards per punt and has landed eight of his 35 attempts inside the opponents' 20-yard line, while Miller is averaging an impressive 26.9 yards per kickoff return with a long of 50 yards. However, that's where the good news ends. The other rookie specialist is PK Mike Nugent, who has failed to come close to meeting expectations as a second-round selection in this year's draft. Nugent has missed three of his first eight field goal attempts, all of which have come within 49 yards. PR Jerricho Cotchery is not a rookie, but he is only a second-year pro. Cotchery has shown some flashes of explosiveness throughout his first two seasons as the teams' punt return specialist, but he has had some problems handling punts so far this season and he is only averaging 7.8 yards per return.
With so much inexperience at key positions on special teams, coach Herm Edwards and his staff have to be concerned about how these youngsters will hold up under the pressure of playing their first Monday Night Football game. Also concerning is the fact that the Falcons have been much more efficient on special teams so far in 2005.
Falcons' newly acquired PK Todd Peterson is a perfect nine-for-nine on field goal attempts this season. There were questions regarding the legitimacy of first-year punter Michael Koenen heading into the season, but he has done nothing to disappoint through six games. He is averaging 43.3 yards per punt and has landed nine of his 32 attempts inside the opponents' 20-yard line. The Falcons' kickoff return game is also in good hands with Allen Rossum, who is averaging 23.4 yards per attempt. Rossum has not been as effective returning punts but he is at least reliable. Also, when the team is in need of a spark it will occasionally call on DeAngelo Hall, who has returned two punts for an average of 18.5 yards this season.
Matchups
? Atlanta TE Alge Crumpler vs. New York SS Kerry Rhodes
? Atlanta LOT Kevin Shaffer vs. New York RDE John Abraham
? Atlanta WR Michael Jenkins vs. New York RDC David Barrett
? New York RB Curtis Martin vs. Atlanta MLB Keith Brooking
? New York WR Laveranues Coles vs. Atlanta LDC DeAngelo Hall
Scouts' Edge
The quarterback position will be the storyline for Monday Night Football. Vick is the focus every time the Falcons play. As for the Jets, all the talk will focus on 41-year old Tesataverde. However, lost in all the quarterback hype is the fact that two of the best running backs in the NFL are doing battle against two of the worst run defenses that the league has to offer. Martin should finish with a 25-plus carry, 120-plus rushing yard performance, but that won't be enough to lift the reeling Jets past the Falcons in Atlanta on Monday night. As poorly as the Falcons' run defense has been, the Jets are simply too one-dimensional on offense to keep up. The Jets have had no answers in terms of stopping the run, which spells disaster versus Vick, Dunn and the Falcons' top-ranked ground game. MNF won't offer much of an aerial display, but there will be more points than expected in a game that the Falcons will eventually run away with.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Jets 17
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance scouting report on this week's matchup between the Jets and Falcons. Now they're back with a second look.
? RB Curtis Martin gives the Jets their best chance of pulling off an upset at Atlanta on Monday night. The Falcons are undersized up front defensively and their lack of depth at the defensive tackle position behind starters Rod Coleman and Chad Lavalais is negatively affecting this group. Coleman and Lavalais are quick, one-gap interior defensive linemen that will do a great job of getting upfield and disrupting when fresh, but they can only play with a high motor for so long. Coleman and Lavalais are undersized and lack the base to anchor at the point of attack. So, when worn down, they become vulnerable to teams running directly at them.
Making matters worse, the Falcons linebacker corps has been shuffled around due to the injury of MLB Ed Hartwell, who was the biggest and most stout run defender on this unit. In his absence, Keith Brooking has had to move from SLB to MLB, Demorrio Williams has had to move from WLB to SLB, and rookie fifth-round pick Michael Boley has been thrust into a starting role at WLB. The Falcons are extremely susceptible to a strong rushing attack, which makes Martin and the Jets' offensive line the keys to Monday night's game. In order to capitalize, the Jets must avoid turnovers, stay dedicated to the run and give Martin at least 25 carries.
? The problem facing the Jets, however, is the inconsistency of their passing game. On one hand, QB Vinny Testaverde has the arm strength and the speed at wide receiver with Laveranues Coles and Justin McCareins to take several vertical shots via the air. On the other hand, Testaverde is immobile and has a long history of throwing the ball up for grabs when things fall apart around him. Offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger will want to take advantage of his potential to hit the home run in the passing game, but he also knows that his best chance of winning this game is to slow down the tempo, control the clock, and continue to pound away at an extremely susceptible Falcons run defense. As such, Heimerdinger's game plan and play-calling could affect Monday night's outcome more so than maybe any other coach on either team.
? Atlanta LDC DeAngelo Hall's ability to hold up on an island in man-to-man coverage gives his team a big advantage in this game. As noted, the Falcons' defensive front seven is overmatched versus Martin and the Jets rushing attack. However, because Hall has proven on a weekly basis this season that he is capable of holding up one-on-one versus an opponents' No. 1 receiver, it gives defensive coordinator Ed Donatell the freedom to be more aggressive with SS Keion Carpenter and FS Bryan Scott, both of whom do a good job of supporting the run.
Until the Jets prove they can beat the Falcons vertically through the air, look for Donatell to use a lot of "man-free" coverage with Carpenter typically cheated up as a fourth linebacker across from the tight end and Scott playing a deep centerfield-type coverage, cheated a few steps over to RDC Jason Webster's side in order to give Webster deep support versus Coles or McCareins. An extra defender in "the box" won't solve the Falcons problems versus the run, but it certainly will make blocking assignments much more difficult for a Jets' offensive line that is without Kevin Mawae, who is lost for the season with a torn triceps.
? As much as the Falcons are struggling to defend the run, their pass rush pressure has been outstanding. Only one team in the NFL (Colts) has more sacks than the Falcons after six games. Coleman leads the team with six sacks and the defensive line as a whole has notched 15 of the team's 20 sacks thus far. Donatell is also doing a fine job of mixing in the blitz in order to overload opposing offensive lines, as LBs Brooking and Williams both have two sacks and FS Scott has also chipped in with one sack. Against a shuffled Jets offensive line and an immobile quarterback in Testaverde, look for Donatell to turn up the heat even more this week.
? Brian Finneran has emerged as the Falcons' No. 2 wide receiver opposite second-year pro Michael Jenkins. Finneran lacks explosive quickness and initial burst, but he has deceptive deep speed and his size makes him a vertical threat due to his ability to win on the "jump ball". In watching recent film of the Falcons' offense, it seems that Finneran is the wide receiver that QB Michael Vick has become most comfortable with in terms of timing. TE Alge Crumpler remains Vick's favorite target and Jenkins flashes occasional explosiveness, but Finneran has added some consistency to the perimeter passing game for Vick in the last few games.
? So far this season, Jets LDC Ty Law has been the only cornerback that defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson can count on when left alone in man-to-man coverage. As a result, Henderson has been able to cheat up a safety and be more aggressive in terms of his blitz package, knowing that Law is fine on one side and that the other safety can cheat over in order to provide deep-support for RDC David Barrett. If Ty Law (questionable, back/groin) is unable to play -- or is less effective than usual -- it will severely limit Henderson's options in those regards.
? The Jets have a good deal of talent along their defensive front seven, but the unit desperately misses departed NT Jason Ferguson. In his place, James Reed simply has not been able to control gaps and protect linebackers versus the run, which is resulting in MLB Jonathan Vilma and WLB Eric Barton making plays two and three yards deep instead of at the line of scrimmage or in the opponents' backfield.
The Falcons' offensive line is doing a terrific job of opening holes for RBs Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett. The unit lacks elite overall talent but each individual is efficient, taking great angles, using leverage and working hard to finish blocks. Even if Duckett (questionable, ankle) is unable to play, look for the combination of Dunn and Vick to be entirely too much for the Jets' struggling run defense to handle over the course of four quarters.
Special Teams
The Jets have had some serious issues on special teams so far this season. Rookie PT Ben Graham and rookie KOR Justin Miller have actually been pleasant surprises. Graham is averaging a solid 43.8 yards per punt and has landed eight of his 35 attempts inside the opponents' 20-yard line, while Miller is averaging an impressive 26.9 yards per kickoff return with a long of 50 yards. However, that's where the good news ends. The other rookie specialist is PK Mike Nugent, who has failed to come close to meeting expectations as a second-round selection in this year's draft. Nugent has missed three of his first eight field goal attempts, all of which have come within 49 yards. PR Jerricho Cotchery is not a rookie, but he is only a second-year pro. Cotchery has shown some flashes of explosiveness throughout his first two seasons as the teams' punt return specialist, but he has had some problems handling punts so far this season and he is only averaging 7.8 yards per return.
With so much inexperience at key positions on special teams, coach Herm Edwards and his staff have to be concerned about how these youngsters will hold up under the pressure of playing their first Monday Night Football game. Also concerning is the fact that the Falcons have been much more efficient on special teams so far in 2005.
Falcons' newly acquired PK Todd Peterson is a perfect nine-for-nine on field goal attempts this season. There were questions regarding the legitimacy of first-year punter Michael Koenen heading into the season, but he has done nothing to disappoint through six games. He is averaging 43.3 yards per punt and has landed nine of his 32 attempts inside the opponents' 20-yard line. The Falcons' kickoff return game is also in good hands with Allen Rossum, who is averaging 23.4 yards per attempt. Rossum has not been as effective returning punts but he is at least reliable. Also, when the team is in need of a spark it will occasionally call on DeAngelo Hall, who has returned two punts for an average of 18.5 yards this season.
Matchups
? Atlanta TE Alge Crumpler vs. New York SS Kerry Rhodes
? Atlanta LOT Kevin Shaffer vs. New York RDE John Abraham
? Atlanta WR Michael Jenkins vs. New York RDC David Barrett
? New York RB Curtis Martin vs. Atlanta MLB Keith Brooking
? New York WR Laveranues Coles vs. Atlanta LDC DeAngelo Hall
Scouts' Edge
The quarterback position will be the storyline for Monday Night Football. Vick is the focus every time the Falcons play. As for the Jets, all the talk will focus on 41-year old Tesataverde. However, lost in all the quarterback hype is the fact that two of the best running backs in the NFL are doing battle against two of the worst run defenses that the league has to offer. Martin should finish with a 25-plus carry, 120-plus rushing yard performance, but that won't be enough to lift the reeling Jets past the Falcons in Atlanta on Monday night. As poorly as the Falcons' run defense has been, the Jets are simply too one-dimensional on offense to keep up. The Jets have had no answers in terms of stopping the run, which spells disaster versus Vick, Dunn and the Falcons' top-ranked ground game. MNF won't offer much of an aerial display, but there will be more points than expected in a game that the Falcons will eventually run away with.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Jets 17
