Monday nite football

[Altgator]

I like the under 43 in tonites game and heres why:

- SF D has given up 15.0 Ppg in 4 games this year
- SF avg total this year is 36.5 ppg
- SF avg 5.4 ypc & Seattle D gives up 5.3 ypc, SF will try to run the ball down Seattle's throat, i.e. clock runs & runs
- Seattle avgs 21 ppg, but this avg is skewed because of the 48 points scored in the Minnesota debacle on sunday nite. I seattle other 3 games they scored 17, 13 & 6( avg of 12 per game)
- seattle's offense is only ranked 27 in the league & SF Def is ranked 7
- Holgrem & Maricucci know each others teams well. this translates into a lower scoring game.
- Trent Dilfer generally will beat you by managing the game, not with his arm.
-SF has value as an under team, national perception of SF is of high scoring offense. this SF team is a hard nosed defensive, run first pass second team.

My numbers show SF winning 20-16. I think the side is a tough bet, however if these teams play to form it should be hard hitting defensive game.

good Luck to all

Al T.

Go Gators!!

 

[Coca-Cola Kid]

I'm with ya !!

I rate it very high this week....

Possible boring game

GL to ya !

 

[Altgator]

The more I look at this game, the clearer it becomes that there is no way that you can play on Seattle!

I do think that Seattle is overated. they did all their damage against a terrible Minnesota team:

So far this year Seattle
- Lost to Oak 17 -31 on the road
- Lost to Ariz 13-24 at home
- Lost to NYG 6-9 on the road
- Hammered Minn 48-23 at home

Looking at the results above:

Oakland is a Super Bowl contender, there is no shame in losing to the Raiders by 14 on the road. Arizona is an avg to below avg team. the Cards handled the Seahawks easily in Seattle. The NYG are a strong defensive team and at best an above average team in a lousy division. Minnesota needed a come from behind rally to nip that pesky Detroit Lion (1-4) team yesterday.

I don't think this years play justifies a play on Seattle +3 points. Assuming a 3 point home field advantage, the line says that these to teams are even. NO WAY JOSE! On a neutral field the 49'ers are a 5-7 point favorite. I think the Monday nite dog is factored a bit to much into this line.

I believe I will add a 1 unit parlay of SF-3 & under 43., to my previous 3 unit SF under 43 play.

good luck to all. Comments welcome!


Al T.

 

[Altgator]

Tough loss last nite, I knew the under was in trouble when Engram ran the punt back. As the stats bear out, SF ran for 161 yards (5.2 ypc) as most people on SF predicted. What most of us SF backers didn't anticipate was that Seat would run for 123 yards (4.1 ypc).

Trent Dilfers scrambles and the punt return pushed this game over the top.

I had a feeling SF would cover, but this was a tight game.

Oh well, that why they call it gambling. Still having my best NFL season, since I started keeping records (last 7 years).

Congratulations to the SF & over bettors!

GLTA

Al T.