Monday October 1st 2007
One-game showdown between the Padres & Rockies at Coors Field.
Padres (Peavy) @ Rockies (Fogg)
padres 57% (-140)-2
under 9 53% (+100)+3
team totals:
padres: even (over 5 +100)
Rockies: -8 (under 4 -110)
I'm giving a large edge to the Padres pitching and a medium-sized edge to the Rockies hitting.
Padres' Peavy has done outstanding work in 2 meetings vs the Rockies this season, earning no decisions but owning a 1.29 era vs them with a BAA of .160. Both of those starts came at home. In his career at Coors he's 3-3 with a 3.96 era and a .281 BAA, allowing 5 HR's over 38.2 IP with 27 K's thrown in. Career he's 4-4 with a 4.11 era vs the Rockies; not his favorite opponent but this year he's really shut them down, as he's done to pretty much everybody. I have the Padres bullpen rated a 79 (think %'s like a grade in school) and availability should be fine, including closer Hoffman who's had a solid though not outstanding season.
Rockies' Fogg has faced the Padres 3 times this season. One was a good start at Petco to start the season back in April, then he had a a crappy April start vs them at home, then he just had a recent, decent start at home Sept.9th. For 2007 he's 1-1 with a 6.28 era vs the Padres, Padres hitting .369 against him. He's been pretty good lately and is coming off of a great start vs a Dodgers team that had just been eliminated from the playoffs and was playing a quiet lineup. He's 3-2, 5.48 career vs the Padres. He owns a lifetime 5.93 era at Coors with a 5.66 there this season. I have the Rockies bullpen rated a 71; availability might be more limited for the Rockies but you'd think that all arms would be ready for a one-game scenario like this. They've finally seemed to have found a decent closer in Manny Corpas.
Padres .779 OPS the past 7 days (likely doesn't include Sunday).
Rockies .896 OPS the last 7 days (same).
One interesting note, as far as comparing these two teams at the plate: while the Padres OPS vs R is only .713 and the Rockies vs R is .796, a comparison between these two on the road reveals an interesting story: Padres OPS on the road is .775 while the Rockies on the road are at .730. I know that this game will be at Coors, giving the Rockies a decided home-field edge (especially staying home while the Padres travel), but it is quite revealing, I think, that the Padres are the better hitting team on the road.
I think that the Padres will be able to hit Fogg. I'm expecting 4-6 runs by the visitors.
Rockies will do their darndest facing Cy Peavy, but I think that they'll be in for a long day. Might see 3-5 Rockies runs, if they can get something off of the bullpen.
Predicted Score: Padres 5 Rockies 4
They've just opened the lines. About the most I'd pay for the Padres in this situation.
Not really any value by my numbers, but Peavy is hard to pass on here.
Plays pending.
GL
One-game showdown between the Padres & Rockies at Coors Field.
Padres (Peavy) @ Rockies (Fogg)
padres 57% (-140)-2
under 9 53% (+100)+3
team totals:
padres: even (over 5 +100)
Rockies: -8 (under 4 -110)
I'm giving a large edge to the Padres pitching and a medium-sized edge to the Rockies hitting.
Padres' Peavy has done outstanding work in 2 meetings vs the Rockies this season, earning no decisions but owning a 1.29 era vs them with a BAA of .160. Both of those starts came at home. In his career at Coors he's 3-3 with a 3.96 era and a .281 BAA, allowing 5 HR's over 38.2 IP with 27 K's thrown in. Career he's 4-4 with a 4.11 era vs the Rockies; not his favorite opponent but this year he's really shut them down, as he's done to pretty much everybody. I have the Padres bullpen rated a 79 (think %'s like a grade in school) and availability should be fine, including closer Hoffman who's had a solid though not outstanding season.
Rockies' Fogg has faced the Padres 3 times this season. One was a good start at Petco to start the season back in April, then he had a a crappy April start vs them at home, then he just had a recent, decent start at home Sept.9th. For 2007 he's 1-1 with a 6.28 era vs the Padres, Padres hitting .369 against him. He's been pretty good lately and is coming off of a great start vs a Dodgers team that had just been eliminated from the playoffs and was playing a quiet lineup. He's 3-2, 5.48 career vs the Padres. He owns a lifetime 5.93 era at Coors with a 5.66 there this season. I have the Rockies bullpen rated a 71; availability might be more limited for the Rockies but you'd think that all arms would be ready for a one-game scenario like this. They've finally seemed to have found a decent closer in Manny Corpas.
Padres .779 OPS the past 7 days (likely doesn't include Sunday).
Rockies .896 OPS the last 7 days (same).
One interesting note, as far as comparing these two teams at the plate: while the Padres OPS vs R is only .713 and the Rockies vs R is .796, a comparison between these two on the road reveals an interesting story: Padres OPS on the road is .775 while the Rockies on the road are at .730. I know that this game will be at Coors, giving the Rockies a decided home-field edge (especially staying home while the Padres travel), but it is quite revealing, I think, that the Padres are the better hitting team on the road.
I think that the Padres will be able to hit Fogg. I'm expecting 4-6 runs by the visitors.
Rockies will do their darndest facing Cy Peavy, but I think that they'll be in for a long day. Might see 3-5 Rockies runs, if they can get something off of the bullpen.
Predicted Score: Padres 5 Rockies 4
They've just opened the lines. About the most I'd pay for the Padres in this situation.
Not really any value by my numbers, but Peavy is hard to pass on here.
Plays pending.
GL
