07:10 PM [951] PHI PHILLIES +138 ( J HELLICKSON -R / J COSART -R )
10:15 PM [958] TOTAL u8-122 (CIN REDS vrs SFO GIANTS) ( A DESCLAFANI -R / J PEAVY -R )
07:10 PM [960] TOTAL u10-115 (DET TIGERS vrs BOS RED SOX) ( J VERLANDER -R / D POMERANZ -L )
08:10 PM [964] HOU ASTROS -149 ( M PINEDA -R / D KEUCHEL -L )
08:10 PM [971] CHI CUBS -1.5 -120 ( J ARRIETA -R / M GONZALEZ -R )
1 unit bet pays 23 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-113, -17.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23th
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Gallardo, who spent more than a month on the DL with right shoulder bicep tendinitis, has shown better velocity since he returned to the team in June. However, his command has been uneven. In the last outing, Gallardo allowed four runs on five hits in the 5-0 loss to the Yankees. Still, Gallardo is looking to build on that performance.
"I was getting some early contact with the pitches, which means I was throwing the ball over the plate," Gallardo said. "I think I made the adjustment compared to the last start in Tampa. It's definitely a positive sign, and keep doing it. Try to stay consistent with that, and go deep in the ballgames as much as I can."
The Orioles got a boost Sunday when when right-handed pitcher and setup man Darren O'Day was reinstated from the disabled list. O'Day, who hadn't pitched since June 1, threw a scoreless inning and is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA, two saves and 28 strikeouts in 23 games (21 innings).
Martinez makes his sixth appearance and third start against the Mets in this contest. He is 1-1 with a 0.57 ERA and a 1.404 WHIP over 15.2 innings of work. This is his third appearance and second start at Citi Field. Martinez is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP over 6.2 innings.
Verlander?s second-half resurgence last year began last July 24 at Fenway Park, where he tossed eight innings of one-run ball in a no-decision...The Virginia native has thrived in four July starts, going 2-0 with a 1.63 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP and 32 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings.
Jarred Cosart is expected to join the rotation in time to start Monday against the Phillies. Cosart, who started the season with the Marlins, was quickly demoted after he went 0-1 with a 7.98 ERA in three starts.
He has been mediocre at Triple-A New Orleans, posting a 3-4 record, a 4.09 ERA, a .158 WHIP and .279 batting average allowed.
This will be Cosart's first major league start since April 22, when the Marlins finally gave up on a pitcher who walked 15 batters in his first 14 2/3 innings this season.
Now, though, they need Cosart again.
"(Cosart) is the guy," Mattingly said. "He is throwing the ball the best down there (in New Orleans) right now."
That's not exactly a strong endorsement, but what else can Mattingly say?
--
Chase Anderson,is 0-4 with a 9.13 ERA in his past six starts and has completed five innings one time. He has surrendered five home runs in those games, 19 walks versus 17 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings, and opposing hitters have a .337 average.
Shipley, 24, will start Monday against Milwaukee. The 15th overall pick in 2013 is 8-5, 3.70 at Triple-A Reno. His 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings is a career-low rate, but so is his 1.6 walks per nine innings.
?He?s really pitched well in Reno,? Arizona manager Chip Hale told reporters. ?When you talk to (Reno manager) Phil Nevin, there?s been a couple ? farmhands have come through and really have controlled the offenses in Reno?s ballpark, and Braden?s one of those guys. We?re excited about it.?
SCOUTING REPORT
Shipley isn?t missing as many bats as he has his in his career?he has a career 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings rate?but that?s by design. He?s getting far more ground balls than in the past and his fastball has been more low-90s than mid-90s. Shipley said the realization that he has a good sinker has changed his approach. He told BA correspondent Nick Piecoro that he can still reach back for 94 mph, but is more effective when he throttles back. When he humps the fastball, he said, it can get flat.
While Shipley says he can still reach back for the occasional 94 mph, he mostly sits in the 89-91 range. Shipley?s changeup and curveball have been called average to tick-above pitches, but he?s able to locate all three pitches.
With his new approach, Shipley apparently won?t pile up the strikeouts, but he keeps the ball in the park and should pitch to a league-average ERA if not a bit better.
Arizona +114 over MILWAUKEE
After a weekend series with the Cubbies that drew 40,000 plus a game, the Brewers will go back to playing in front of a mostly empty stadium tonight when the Diamondbacks come calling. In fact, Milwaukee?s last four home series have been against Chicago, St. Louis, the Dodgers and the Mets so there is an even better chance that their intensity in this series will not come close to matching their intensity of those aforementioned others. Situationally speaking, this is not a good series for the Brewers to thrive and now they?re favored with Chase Anderson going.
Anderson faces the team that traded him for Jean Segura and of course he would like to do well but wanting to and being able to are two different things. It?s not that Anderson isn?t capable of good game because like most pitchers at this level, he is. However, the Crew have lost five of his last six starts by scores of 11-5, 10-6, 9-8, 6-5 and 8-1. Milwaukee has only won six of Anderson?s 18 starts so why would we not accept a tag against a pitcher whose team wins just 33% of his starts? Anderson has weak peripherals (35/69 BB/K split in 90 innings). His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 36%/23%/41% is not only troublesome, it has not played well at this park all season long and doesn?t figure to play well here either. Anderson is prone to giving up bombs because of his fly-ball tendencies.
Braden Shipley gets the call from Triple-A to make his major league debut here. Shipley was ranked No. 47 in the preseason top 100 prospects by at least two publications. He was a first-round pick in the 2013 draft and has been effective with three average to above average offerings. This is his first season above Double-A and he?s done a much better job of commanding the plate with his sinking 91-96 mph fastball. On the one hand, his strikeout rate has been disappointing. On the other hand, he works all four quadrants of the strike zone and can get hitters to swing and miss at his power curveball. Shipley is an excellent athlete who repeats his smooth delivery very consistently. His best pitch might be his change-up that has plus deception and drop. He has some work to do with pitch sequencing, but he?s making strides in all facets of pitching. If everything comes together for him, Shipley has a very good chance of becoming a #2 or #3 starter with the potential for even more if he becomes more aggressive with his fastball. Shipley started 19 games for Reno of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and in 119 innings walked just 22 batters. He surrendered just seven jacks and also pitched to a 3.70 ERA, which is very good in that league. His xERA was even better at 3.52 and xERA does not take park factors into consideration. A first-time starter is usually risky but with that risk also comes reward and this is a good a spot for this kid to get his feet wet. He has the talent.
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The layoff appears to have rejuvenated Jake Arrieta. In his first outing after the break against the New York Mets, the Chicago Cubs' right-hander tossed seven frames for the first time in six starts, striking out eight while walking only one along the way....he is 8-2 with a 3.44 ERA in 10 starts on the road. Arrieta is now 21-3 with a 2.23 ERA in his last 28 starts on the road and 10-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 23 career interleague starts, while vs the White Sox he is 3-1 with a 3.82 ERA in six starts, including 2-1 with a 4.78 ERA in five starts here at U.S. Cellular Field.
Last Tuesday there was a focus here of Jake Arrieta?s struggles heading in to the All Star break, and whether an extended amount of time off was what the doctor ordered. It was, with a little curve being thrown in, literally. Now he gets to take the mound fresh again, having had five days off, and it opens the door for #917 Chicago Cubs Straight/Run Line (8:10 Eastern), with -185 or less for one-third of a position, and the Run Line for the remainder (you should be able to do -1.5 at -110). I?ll explain the splits in a moment.
Arrieta had a dominating outing against the Mets in which 25 of his first 27 pitches were strikes, and 63 of 85 for the full game were in the zone. By getting ahead of the hitters he was also able to work his curveball much more into the mix, 17.7 percent of all offerings, his season-high and far above the 12.1 prior to the break. Now he takes the mound with the league?s best defense behind him, and a bullpen that is well set ? only Clayton Richard and Joe Nathan carry fatigue ratings, and if you are a Cub backer Nathan not being available is actually a good thing.
Meanwhile the White Sox pitching brings a mess both early and late. Miguel Gonzalez may be nearing his twilight, that 9-12/4.41 with the Orioles last year being followed up with a 2-5/4.41, and that is something that a right-hander does not easily survive at the age of 32 (lefties get a longer look, of course). This will be the second straight season that his BB/9 has set a career-high, and after being above the MLB average in HR/FB rate from 2013-2015, that favorable 9.1 percent so far this season may not hold up, hence why xFIP at 4.63 and SIERA at 4.71 may be the better reads on him. Then there is a bullpen that saw both Nate Jones and David Robertson work twice yesterday, which means some late-game headaches for Robin Ventura, especially after each struggled in their second stint.
Note the end-game problem for the White Sox is why one-third of the ticket is on the outright win. Ordinarily this would be all Run Line, but even if the Cubs do not break the game open, they can still gut out a close late win against the ChiSox relief corps. That is why I want at least a small portion of the play on the straight ticket, taking handicapping advantage of that particular weakness.
Oakland +119 over TEXAS
Daniel Mengden was very good during his first four MLB starts in June (2.81 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) but it?s been a different story since with a 7.37 ERA. Fact is, Mengden?s skills were exactly the same in June as they have been during this current funk he?s in. He was averaging 9K?s/9 in his first four starts and is still averaging that. His groundball rate of 44% has remained steady. His walk rate is the same also. Mengden is getting a 14%+ swing and miss rate on both his slider and curveball, so he has two solid off-speed pitches at his disposal. He is also filthy against RH bats with 10.8 K?s/9, 1.4 BB?s/9 and a 50% groundball rate. To avoid his blowup risk, it would be best to pass on him against lineups with strong lefty bats but that is not the case here against the mostly right-handed lineup of the Rangers.
Martin Perez?s blowup risk is about 100 times higher than anyone else. Here?s a guy that has a BB/K split of 51/55 in 119 innings. His xERA of 6.10 is higher than any pitcher in the game that has thrown over 90 innings this year. Over his last 29 innings, Perez has walked 12 and struck out 10. His swing and miss rate is 4%. Perez is absolutely and completely at the mercy of batted balls in play variances and so far he?s been extremely lucky in that regard. This is a minor-league pitcher donning a major-league uniform and even calling him a minor-league pitcher might be generous.
San Diego vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
Please note that I'm recommending laying the -1.5 with Blue Jays here. I think they have enough advantages to beat the Padres by multiple runs in Monday's opener. San Diego just took two of three from Washington, but Toronto has the most Interleague wins (11) of any team in baseball.
Blue Jays starter Aaron Sanchez has a 1.80 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his L3 starts. He's allowed 2 ER or less in six consecutive starts. His last loss came all the way back on April 22nd. While the Padres' lineup has homered in 22 consecutive games, this will be the franchise's first foray ever into Toronto. Rogers Centre is known for being a hitter's park, but I'm unconvinced that San Diego will able to take advantage. They are just 19-31 in road games overall, including 1-5 as a dog of +200 to +225.
San Diego's Colin Rea has a 4.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP his L3 starts. He also gave up three home runs in his last start. That's key. Sanchez has allowed only two in his last six starts and if you take away the four he gave up in an uncharacteristically poor showing vs. Baltimore on June 12th, he's allowed just three since the start of May! The Blue Jays really need this one as the fight for Wild Card/playoff position. The Padres have been surprisingly competitive since the Break, but that ends here.
Drew Pomeranz - 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. He was cruising through the first three innings, then failed to record an out on the first five batters, who all came around to score. It was the second time all season Pomeranz used his Cutter more than his Curveball, and it may be because his deuce has missing over an inch of horizontal bend (second lowest amount of the season, the first being his 2016 debut in Colorado). I don't see this is a new standard and I still love The Dirty Cheerleader moving forward.
Detroit at Boston
Play: Under 10
Justin Verlander hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his four July starts. Drew Pomeranz got roughed up to the tune of five runs on eight hits (two homers) in just three innings of work in his Boston debut (bounce-back time). Prior to that, Pomeranz only allowed more than three runs once in his last seven starts as a Padre.
Michael Pineda - 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. I hate to admit this but I have Quit Playing Games With My Heart now cycling through my head. Pineda did this against the O's as the Yankees refuse to lose just one more time to turn up the gas on the hot stove. DO YOUR JOB BALTIMORE. Anyway, Pineda has been as Harvey Dent as they come in 2016, especially as this outing followed a pair of 5 ER clunkers. He's super two-faced and it's really tough for you to sit there calmly as you start him each night. It's the ultimate risk/reward pitcher and if that's your gig, by all means. At least his hard contact is falling from mid 30s levels to sub 32% with a 3.25 xFIP...man I want to love you so badly Pineda!
If you want to start an argument between a numbers-based analyst and someone who primarily watches games and goes by feel, drop the name Michael Pineda. Personally, I lean more to the numbers with an open mind to the likely possibility there's some bad pitching mixed in. By the numbers, Pineda's 10.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 should portend to a better ERA than the 5.25 he's recorded. The two contributors hurting the New York Yankees righty are a bloated .342 batting average on balls in play in tandem with an elevated 18 percent home run to fly ball rate. This is the area that likely combines bad luck with bad pitching.
The expected ERA of xFIP fleshes the assumed luck out of home run rate and lands Pineda at a much more palatable 3.24. If you're in a seasonal league, it's fair to expect Pineda's ERA to regress towards the better mark down the stretch.
The number-crunchers consider him a great option since his xFIP says he's a bargain for his price tag. The gut players stack against him, mostly to counter those using him as their pitcher, expecting that he'll continue to struggle. It's a great debate, one which will persist until we get a better handle on the next wave of data, namely exit velocity, launch angle and the like.
The immediate concern is Pineda squaring off with another sabermetric enigma in Dallas Keuchel. Adding to the intrigue is the fact the Houston Astros provide the platform for Pineda to have a huge strikeout game, or knock him out early.
Speaking of Keuchel, his actual 4.70 ERA is more than a run higher than his 3.55 xFIP, so he too should see better outcomes down the stretch. It also should be noted that Minute Maid Park is perceived to be a hitter's park, since it's very homer-friendly, but in fact the venue plays neutral for runs. (Actually, the same is true of Yankee Stadium.) As for this contest, the Yankees don't strike out often, but also aren't very potent. Keuchel has worked at least six frames in 17 of his 20 outings, seven of which were seven innings or more.
New York Yankees are:
1-5 in Pineda?s last 6 starts against a team with a winning record.
6-13 in their last 19 road games against a team with a winning record.
2-7 in Pineda?s last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his latest appearance.
Hector Santiago, who has gone 8-4 with a 4.32 ERA in 20 starts this year, including 4-0 with a 1.08 ERA in his last four starts and 4-2 with a 3.03 ERA in 10 starts on the road. Santiago is now 13-13 with a 3.81 ERA in his last 41 games (37 starts) on the road and 7-1 with a 2.17 ERA in his last nine starts in July, while vs the Royals he is 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA in his last 6 games (5 starts), including 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three starts here at Kauffman Stadium.
Los Angeles is:
3-10 in their last 13 during game one of a series
1-4 in Santiago?s last five starts during game one of a series
Kansas City is:
20-9 in their last 29 games vs. a left-handed starter
12-5 in their last 17 home games vs. a left-handed starter
Peavy (5-8, 5.15 ERA) has never lost a home game against Cincinnati, going 4-0 while allowing only 37 hits in 52 innings. His ERA over those seven starts (three no-decisions) is 1.90.
Peavy has been remarkably resilient since joining the Giants in a trade from the Red Sox for pitchers Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree in 2014. His 19-18 record tells only half the story.
Six of those losses came against teams Peavy faced again later in the same season. He won all six of the rematches, allowing only 13 runs in 39 2/3 innings (2.95 ERA) after having gotten lit up for 21 runs in 28 2/3 innings (6.59) in the first meeting.
He will be looking to extend that run to seven straight against the Reds, who roughed up Peavy for eight hits and seven runs in six innings in a 7-4 Cincinnati win on May 4.
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
Pick: San Francisco Giants
The SF Giants owned MLB?s best record at the All Star break (57-33) but the team has won just ONE of eight games (a 2-1, 12-inning victory this past Saturday) since resuming play. The Giants? NL West lead has been cut to three games over the Dodgers (down from 6 1/2 games at the break) as they get set to open a week-long homestand on Monday night against the 38-60 Cincinnati Reds. The Giants return home off a 1-7 road trip in which they batted just .125 (9-for-72) with RISP, averaging only 2.88 RPG. The Reds are 6-3 since the break but remain in last place in the NL Central, a whopping 21 /2 games back of the Cubs.
Anthony DeSclafani (5-0, 2.50 ERA) will take the mound for the Reds and Jake Peavy (5-8, 5.15 ERA) starts for the Giants. DeSclafani didn?t make his first start of 2016 until June 10 but after two no-decisions to open his season, he?s won FIVE of his last six starts. The Reds are 6-2 in his eight starts this year and despite making only eight starts, his five wins is tied for the most of any Cincinnati pitcher. He enters this contest having posted SIX consecutive quality starts but in his only career start vs the Giants, allowed SIX runs (all earned) in just three innings of a 9-8 loss back on May 17, 2015.
A look at Jake Peavy?s 5.15 ERA paints a poor picture but note that after the Giants lost SIX of his first nine starts of 2016, the team has rebounded to win SEVEN of his last 10 (the Giants are 10-9 in his starts this season, plus-$109 vs the moneyline).
Peavy?s just 19-18 since joining the Giants in a trade from the Red Sox but a deeper look shows that six of those losses came against teams Peavy faced again later in the same season and he won all six of the rematches while posting a 2.95 ERA, after owning a 6.59 ERA in the first meetings.
Maybe more importantly, Peavy is an impressive 7-1 with a 2.92 ERA in 13 career starts vs the Reds, with his teams going a money-making 11-2. He?s also NEVER lost a home start against Cincinnati, going 4-0 while allowing only 37 hits in 52 innings, while posting a 1.90 ERA. With the first-place Nats (NL East) coming to town Thursday for four games, this series is a great opportunity for the Giants to gain some momentum with a three-game sweep of the Reds. First things first and I?ll back Peavy and the Giants, tonight.
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -130
A sluggish start to the second half of the 2016 MLB campaign has the San Francisco Giants squad pleased to be back home at friendly AT&T Park. The Giants aim to reverse their fortunes (3-7 last 10 games overall) when they host the Cincinnati Reds on Monday in the opener of a three-game set.
San Francisco exited the first half of the season with a 6 1/2-game lead in the National League West. Following the Mid-Summer Classic the Giants have stumbled and take on the Reds tonight off a 1-7 road trip. The Giants currently own a 3-game lead over second place Los Angeles. The Reds finished a 6-3 homestand with a tough 9-8 loss to Arizona on Sunday afternoon.
Reds
DeSclafani has strung together six consecutive quality starts posted six straight quality starts. The Reds right-hander has not walked a batter in three straight turns DeSclafani tries to improve to 6-0 since returning from a left oblique strain that resulted in the righty missing the first two months of the season. The young right-hander is 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in eight starts. The aforementioned numbers are a signal that negative regression is forthcoming. DeSclafani has a below average strikeout rate (19%) and has been extremely fortunate with his strand ratio (83%). DeSclafani has also struggled against left-handed bats the past 2 seasons offering up a .350 wOBA. DeSclafani's lone start versus the Giants, a season ago, resulted in six runs allowed over three innings.
Giants
Peavy's two start week for the scuffling G-Men begins with a test against an inconsistent and pedestrian Cincinnati offense. Peavy sports a 3.46 FIP at home, vs. a 4.89 FIP on the road. His 5.15 ERA is the result of poor luck, overall, and nearly one run higher than his FIP year-to-date. His Swinging Strike percentage is up to 10.3%, the highest it?s been since 2008.
Outlook
The Giants do what they do well, defend their Bay turf and surf, and Peavy executes a quality start against the visiting Reds tonight and does so at a bargain price. Peavy is 7-1 with a 2.92 ERA in his career against the Reds and has issued two or fewer walks in 12 consecutive starts.
Under is 7-2-2 in DeSclafanis last 11 road starts.
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox -136
Recently acquired southpaw Drew Pomeranz arrived in Boston in the thick of a breakout campaign, posting a 2.47 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across seventeen starts. Unfortunately, the 27-year-old struggled in his Fenway debut, yielding five earned runs on 8 hits in just three innings against the Giants. "It takes about a week," Pomeranz said of getting acclimated with a new team. "When you transition anywhere, you have to remember what you've done all year. I know my approach, but they have their own approach here. It is all about integrating into one."
Despite last week's disappointing outing, Pomeranz's 2.83 ERA is fully supported by his peripheral: 3.37 FIP, 3.66 xFIP and a 3.75 SIERA. Pomeranz's ground ball rate has improved (46.7% GB% vs. 42.2% GB% in 2015) and he boasts a phenomenal 27.7% strikeout rate (10.20 K/9).
Upon arriving in Boston, Pomeranz ranked eighth in ERA-, 13th in FIP- and 21st in K-BB% out of 143 starting pitchers with a minimum 50 innings. In other words, it's important not to overreact to one start that came shortly after being traded from San Diego to the east coast.
Pomeranz's success has been predicated upon the development of a third pitch - a cutter - that was initially introduced to him by former Minor League teammate Travis Higgs during the offseason. "He showed me the grip and where to apply the pressure," Pomeranz said. Combined with an effective fastball and curveball, the cut fastball has allowed Pomeranz to keep batters off balance.
In his first seven starts this season, Pomeranz only threw the cutter 4% of the time. However, since May 18, a span encompassing 10+ starters, Pomeranz has thrown the cutter 19% of the time. "It has made all the difference in the world," Pomeranz said about his development of the cut fastball.
Even more impressive is the fact that Pomeranz is adept at throwing all three pitches at varying speeds and at any count. Since May 18, Pomeranz is ranked in the 92nd percentile in exit velocity allowed, which is the byproduct of his cut fastball. Pomeranz was also yielding a .328 OPS during his third time through the order prior to last week's outing, which was the best mark in baseball by over 100 points!
Pomeranz should have success against a Detroit lineup averaging just 4.5 runs per game on the road (.258 AVG.; .316 OBP; .728 OPS) and 3.0 runs over its last seven games (.242 AVG.; .296 OBP; .655 OPS). Technically speaking, Detroit is a money-burning 15-36 in its last 51 trips to Fenway Park, including losing its last five with Justin Verlander on the mound.
The Tigers are also 3-10 in Verlander's last 13 starts versus American League East foes and 2-5 in his last seven starts during game 1 of a series, whereas Boston is 6-0 in its last 6 during game 1 of a series and 9-2 in its last eleven home games. Detroit is a money-burning 2-8 in its last 8 road games versus teams with a winning record and 6-3 in its last 19 road games versus left-handed starters, including 0-4 in its last four against southpaws.
Cardinals +1.5 -145
I'm always a fan of taking better teams getting +1.5 Vs. a weak hitting team with one of the teams best pitchers...We have that here with the Cards and Martinez...Martinez hasn't allowed 4 runs or more going back to May....So asking him to give up 4 runs to a weak hitting team is tough...Not to mention we are getting +1.5 runs here...Cards have lost 2 in a row now and that will give them a boost here to hang Vs. Syndergaard...He hasn't been super sharp in his last 7 games..Some are hit and miss with some gems, but he can be hit versus this lineup...We get a low total here of 7, so the +1.5 is more valuable to us here..i'll take a shot here with the Cards at +1.5
Reds vs. Giants
Play: Under 8
The books have set the total too high for Monday's matchup between the Reds and Giants. Two underrated starters take the mound in this one. San Francisco sends out Jake Peavy against Cincinnati's Anthony Deslafani. Peavy has pitched much better at home compared to on the road and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of this last 8 starts. Deslafani on the other hand has been lights out since joining the rotation. He's 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in 8 starts. He hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in a single start this season. UNDER is 10-2-1 in Deslafani's last 13 starts against a team with a winning record and 7-1-1 in Peavy's last 9 starts against a team with a losing record.
St. Louis Cardinals +163
I'm willing to take a shot with the St. Louis Cardinals as massive road underdogs against the New York Mets in Game 1 of this series Monday night. This is a much more evenly-matched game on the mound than this line would indicate.
Carlos Martinez continues to go under the radar. He's 9-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in seven road starts.
Martinez has never lost to the Mets, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in two career starts against them. He has pitched 10 1/3 innings without allowing a single earned run in those two starts.
St. Louis is a very profitable 27-16 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season. The Cardinals are 10-2 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. St. Louis is 16-5 in Martinez's last 21 road starts.
Philadelphia +140 over MIAMI
Jeremy Hellickson has made some notable gains with his secondary offerings this year, particularly his change-up. With two near-elite offerings in his change-up and curveball, Hellickson has the goods to survive and occasionally thrive without lighting up the radar gun. There doesn't seem to be much room for further growth in his already high-quality curveball and change-up and the long-term velocity trend suggests that Hellickson isn't about to rediscover the upper-end of the "88-93 mph" range he brought with him to the bigs nearly six years ago. He can certainly survive with his current repertoire and it?s also worth noting that he?s been downright dominant against right-handed lineups and the Fish have a heavy right-handed lineup. Aside from that, this wager is more aboyut fading Jarred Cosart.
Cosart made three starts in April before Miami's patience with him came to an end. Cosart's 7.98 ERA somewhat exaggerates how bad his performance was in April but that's damning him with faint praise. His xERA was still a terrible 6.18 and it doesn?t appear that he worked out anything in the minors. In those three aforementoned starts at this level in April, Cosart walked 15 batters in 15 innings and struck out eight. In 58 minor-league innings since the demotion, Cosart walked 26 and whiffed 34. Dude couldn?t even strike out minor-leaguers at an acceptable rate. The sum of the parts has fallen short of the whole. Cosart?s K?s are sparse despite mid-90s heater. His swing and miss rate in the minors was 5% and it was 4% when he pitched here in April. The one constant has been shoddy control and until he reins that in, he'll continue to be enigmatic and largely unplayable. Concurrent and steady plummets in skills and first-pitch strike rate give no hope of a rebound. If you were thinking Miami, move on.
Coldest pitcher: Martin Perez, Texas (7-7, 4.37 ERA)
Perez has been horrid in the month of July, going 0-3 with an 8.34 ERA in four starts in the month, allowing five or more earned runs in each of his past three outings, all losses. Perez posted quality starts in six of seven outings from May 8 to June 9, but he has managed just two over his past seven assignments since. The Rangers have been terrible lately, winning just 3-8 in their past 11 games, and Perez doesn't figure to stem the tide of losing. While the Rangers are a surprising 8-3 in his past 11 outings, they're 0-5 in his past five against teams with a losing overall record.
Biggest UNDER run: Orioles (12-0 past 12)
The 'under' run for Baltimore has been amazing, one of a handful of impressive streaks. The 'under' is also 10-0 in the past 10 for the Yankees, 1-10-1 in the past 12 for the Mets and 2-8 over the past 10 for the Giants. Suddenly the offense has dried up for a lot of teams. Strong pitching has been the key to Baltimore's amazing under run, as they have allowed three or fewer runs in each of their past four games, and nine of the past 12 outings. They face a Colorado team which has seen the under go 12-4 in their past 16 against right-handed starting pitching, and 7-2 in their past nine road outings.
Biggest OVER run: Cardinals (5-3 past 8)
Offense has been at a premium lately in the majors, as teams appear to have a hangover after the All-Star break. The Cardinals have bucked that trend somewhat, as the 'over' is 5-3 in their past eight games, 5-1 in their past six against National League East teams and 3-1-5 in Martinez's past nine outings against NL East teams. The under is the predominant trend for the Mets, but the over is 4-1 in Noah Syndergaard's past five home outings and 7-2 in his past nine games overall.
10:15 PM [958] TOTAL u8-122 (CIN REDS vrs SFO GIANTS) ( A DESCLAFANI -R / J PEAVY -R )
07:10 PM [960] TOTAL u10-115 (DET TIGERS vrs BOS RED SOX) ( J VERLANDER -R / D POMERANZ -L )
08:10 PM [964] HOU ASTROS -149 ( M PINEDA -R / D KEUCHEL -L )
08:10 PM [971] CHI CUBS -1.5 -120 ( J ARRIETA -R / M GONZALEZ -R )
1 unit bet pays 23 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-113, -17.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23th
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Gallardo, who spent more than a month on the DL with right shoulder bicep tendinitis, has shown better velocity since he returned to the team in June. However, his command has been uneven. In the last outing, Gallardo allowed four runs on five hits in the 5-0 loss to the Yankees. Still, Gallardo is looking to build on that performance.
"I was getting some early contact with the pitches, which means I was throwing the ball over the plate," Gallardo said. "I think I made the adjustment compared to the last start in Tampa. It's definitely a positive sign, and keep doing it. Try to stay consistent with that, and go deep in the ballgames as much as I can."
The Orioles got a boost Sunday when when right-handed pitcher and setup man Darren O'Day was reinstated from the disabled list. O'Day, who hadn't pitched since June 1, threw a scoreless inning and is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA, two saves and 28 strikeouts in 23 games (21 innings).
Martinez makes his sixth appearance and third start against the Mets in this contest. He is 1-1 with a 0.57 ERA and a 1.404 WHIP over 15.2 innings of work. This is his third appearance and second start at Citi Field. Martinez is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP over 6.2 innings.
Verlander?s second-half resurgence last year began last July 24 at Fenway Park, where he tossed eight innings of one-run ball in a no-decision...The Virginia native has thrived in four July starts, going 2-0 with a 1.63 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP and 32 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings.
Jarred Cosart is expected to join the rotation in time to start Monday against the Phillies. Cosart, who started the season with the Marlins, was quickly demoted after he went 0-1 with a 7.98 ERA in three starts.
He has been mediocre at Triple-A New Orleans, posting a 3-4 record, a 4.09 ERA, a .158 WHIP and .279 batting average allowed.
This will be Cosart's first major league start since April 22, when the Marlins finally gave up on a pitcher who walked 15 batters in his first 14 2/3 innings this season.
Now, though, they need Cosart again.
"(Cosart) is the guy," Mattingly said. "He is throwing the ball the best down there (in New Orleans) right now."
That's not exactly a strong endorsement, but what else can Mattingly say?
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Chase Anderson,is 0-4 with a 9.13 ERA in his past six starts and has completed five innings one time. He has surrendered five home runs in those games, 19 walks versus 17 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings, and opposing hitters have a .337 average.
Shipley, 24, will start Monday against Milwaukee. The 15th overall pick in 2013 is 8-5, 3.70 at Triple-A Reno. His 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings is a career-low rate, but so is his 1.6 walks per nine innings.
?He?s really pitched well in Reno,? Arizona manager Chip Hale told reporters. ?When you talk to (Reno manager) Phil Nevin, there?s been a couple ? farmhands have come through and really have controlled the offenses in Reno?s ballpark, and Braden?s one of those guys. We?re excited about it.?
SCOUTING REPORT
Shipley isn?t missing as many bats as he has his in his career?he has a career 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings rate?but that?s by design. He?s getting far more ground balls than in the past and his fastball has been more low-90s than mid-90s. Shipley said the realization that he has a good sinker has changed his approach. He told BA correspondent Nick Piecoro that he can still reach back for 94 mph, but is more effective when he throttles back. When he humps the fastball, he said, it can get flat.
While Shipley says he can still reach back for the occasional 94 mph, he mostly sits in the 89-91 range. Shipley?s changeup and curveball have been called average to tick-above pitches, but he?s able to locate all three pitches.
With his new approach, Shipley apparently won?t pile up the strikeouts, but he keeps the ball in the park and should pitch to a league-average ERA if not a bit better.
Arizona +114 over MILWAUKEE
After a weekend series with the Cubbies that drew 40,000 plus a game, the Brewers will go back to playing in front of a mostly empty stadium tonight when the Diamondbacks come calling. In fact, Milwaukee?s last four home series have been against Chicago, St. Louis, the Dodgers and the Mets so there is an even better chance that their intensity in this series will not come close to matching their intensity of those aforementioned others. Situationally speaking, this is not a good series for the Brewers to thrive and now they?re favored with Chase Anderson going.
Anderson faces the team that traded him for Jean Segura and of course he would like to do well but wanting to and being able to are two different things. It?s not that Anderson isn?t capable of good game because like most pitchers at this level, he is. However, the Crew have lost five of his last six starts by scores of 11-5, 10-6, 9-8, 6-5 and 8-1. Milwaukee has only won six of Anderson?s 18 starts so why would we not accept a tag against a pitcher whose team wins just 33% of his starts? Anderson has weak peripherals (35/69 BB/K split in 90 innings). His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 36%/23%/41% is not only troublesome, it has not played well at this park all season long and doesn?t figure to play well here either. Anderson is prone to giving up bombs because of his fly-ball tendencies.
Braden Shipley gets the call from Triple-A to make his major league debut here. Shipley was ranked No. 47 in the preseason top 100 prospects by at least two publications. He was a first-round pick in the 2013 draft and has been effective with three average to above average offerings. This is his first season above Double-A and he?s done a much better job of commanding the plate with his sinking 91-96 mph fastball. On the one hand, his strikeout rate has been disappointing. On the other hand, he works all four quadrants of the strike zone and can get hitters to swing and miss at his power curveball. Shipley is an excellent athlete who repeats his smooth delivery very consistently. His best pitch might be his change-up that has plus deception and drop. He has some work to do with pitch sequencing, but he?s making strides in all facets of pitching. If everything comes together for him, Shipley has a very good chance of becoming a #2 or #3 starter with the potential for even more if he becomes more aggressive with his fastball. Shipley started 19 games for Reno of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and in 119 innings walked just 22 batters. He surrendered just seven jacks and also pitched to a 3.70 ERA, which is very good in that league. His xERA was even better at 3.52 and xERA does not take park factors into consideration. A first-time starter is usually risky but with that risk also comes reward and this is a good a spot for this kid to get his feet wet. He has the talent.
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The layoff appears to have rejuvenated Jake Arrieta. In his first outing after the break against the New York Mets, the Chicago Cubs' right-hander tossed seven frames for the first time in six starts, striking out eight while walking only one along the way....he is 8-2 with a 3.44 ERA in 10 starts on the road. Arrieta is now 21-3 with a 2.23 ERA in his last 28 starts on the road and 10-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 23 career interleague starts, while vs the White Sox he is 3-1 with a 3.82 ERA in six starts, including 2-1 with a 4.78 ERA in five starts here at U.S. Cellular Field.
Last Tuesday there was a focus here of Jake Arrieta?s struggles heading in to the All Star break, and whether an extended amount of time off was what the doctor ordered. It was, with a little curve being thrown in, literally. Now he gets to take the mound fresh again, having had five days off, and it opens the door for #917 Chicago Cubs Straight/Run Line (8:10 Eastern), with -185 or less for one-third of a position, and the Run Line for the remainder (you should be able to do -1.5 at -110). I?ll explain the splits in a moment.
Arrieta had a dominating outing against the Mets in which 25 of his first 27 pitches were strikes, and 63 of 85 for the full game were in the zone. By getting ahead of the hitters he was also able to work his curveball much more into the mix, 17.7 percent of all offerings, his season-high and far above the 12.1 prior to the break. Now he takes the mound with the league?s best defense behind him, and a bullpen that is well set ? only Clayton Richard and Joe Nathan carry fatigue ratings, and if you are a Cub backer Nathan not being available is actually a good thing.
Meanwhile the White Sox pitching brings a mess both early and late. Miguel Gonzalez may be nearing his twilight, that 9-12/4.41 with the Orioles last year being followed up with a 2-5/4.41, and that is something that a right-hander does not easily survive at the age of 32 (lefties get a longer look, of course). This will be the second straight season that his BB/9 has set a career-high, and after being above the MLB average in HR/FB rate from 2013-2015, that favorable 9.1 percent so far this season may not hold up, hence why xFIP at 4.63 and SIERA at 4.71 may be the better reads on him. Then there is a bullpen that saw both Nate Jones and David Robertson work twice yesterday, which means some late-game headaches for Robin Ventura, especially after each struggled in their second stint.
Note the end-game problem for the White Sox is why one-third of the ticket is on the outright win. Ordinarily this would be all Run Line, but even if the Cubs do not break the game open, they can still gut out a close late win against the ChiSox relief corps. That is why I want at least a small portion of the play on the straight ticket, taking handicapping advantage of that particular weakness.
Oakland +119 over TEXAS
Daniel Mengden was very good during his first four MLB starts in June (2.81 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) but it?s been a different story since with a 7.37 ERA. Fact is, Mengden?s skills were exactly the same in June as they have been during this current funk he?s in. He was averaging 9K?s/9 in his first four starts and is still averaging that. His groundball rate of 44% has remained steady. His walk rate is the same also. Mengden is getting a 14%+ swing and miss rate on both his slider and curveball, so he has two solid off-speed pitches at his disposal. He is also filthy against RH bats with 10.8 K?s/9, 1.4 BB?s/9 and a 50% groundball rate. To avoid his blowup risk, it would be best to pass on him against lineups with strong lefty bats but that is not the case here against the mostly right-handed lineup of the Rangers.
Martin Perez?s blowup risk is about 100 times higher than anyone else. Here?s a guy that has a BB/K split of 51/55 in 119 innings. His xERA of 6.10 is higher than any pitcher in the game that has thrown over 90 innings this year. Over his last 29 innings, Perez has walked 12 and struck out 10. His swing and miss rate is 4%. Perez is absolutely and completely at the mercy of batted balls in play variances and so far he?s been extremely lucky in that regard. This is a minor-league pitcher donning a major-league uniform and even calling him a minor-league pitcher might be generous.
San Diego vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
Please note that I'm recommending laying the -1.5 with Blue Jays here. I think they have enough advantages to beat the Padres by multiple runs in Monday's opener. San Diego just took two of three from Washington, but Toronto has the most Interleague wins (11) of any team in baseball.
Blue Jays starter Aaron Sanchez has a 1.80 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his L3 starts. He's allowed 2 ER or less in six consecutive starts. His last loss came all the way back on April 22nd. While the Padres' lineup has homered in 22 consecutive games, this will be the franchise's first foray ever into Toronto. Rogers Centre is known for being a hitter's park, but I'm unconvinced that San Diego will able to take advantage. They are just 19-31 in road games overall, including 1-5 as a dog of +200 to +225.
San Diego's Colin Rea has a 4.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP his L3 starts. He also gave up three home runs in his last start. That's key. Sanchez has allowed only two in his last six starts and if you take away the four he gave up in an uncharacteristically poor showing vs. Baltimore on June 12th, he's allowed just three since the start of May! The Blue Jays really need this one as the fight for Wild Card/playoff position. The Padres have been surprisingly competitive since the Break, but that ends here.
Drew Pomeranz - 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. He was cruising through the first three innings, then failed to record an out on the first five batters, who all came around to score. It was the second time all season Pomeranz used his Cutter more than his Curveball, and it may be because his deuce has missing over an inch of horizontal bend (second lowest amount of the season, the first being his 2016 debut in Colorado). I don't see this is a new standard and I still love The Dirty Cheerleader moving forward.
Detroit at Boston
Play: Under 10
Justin Verlander hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his four July starts. Drew Pomeranz got roughed up to the tune of five runs on eight hits (two homers) in just three innings of work in his Boston debut (bounce-back time). Prior to that, Pomeranz only allowed more than three runs once in his last seven starts as a Padre.
Michael Pineda - 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. I hate to admit this but I have Quit Playing Games With My Heart now cycling through my head. Pineda did this against the O's as the Yankees refuse to lose just one more time to turn up the gas on the hot stove. DO YOUR JOB BALTIMORE. Anyway, Pineda has been as Harvey Dent as they come in 2016, especially as this outing followed a pair of 5 ER clunkers. He's super two-faced and it's really tough for you to sit there calmly as you start him each night. It's the ultimate risk/reward pitcher and if that's your gig, by all means. At least his hard contact is falling from mid 30s levels to sub 32% with a 3.25 xFIP...man I want to love you so badly Pineda!
If you want to start an argument between a numbers-based analyst and someone who primarily watches games and goes by feel, drop the name Michael Pineda. Personally, I lean more to the numbers with an open mind to the likely possibility there's some bad pitching mixed in. By the numbers, Pineda's 10.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 should portend to a better ERA than the 5.25 he's recorded. The two contributors hurting the New York Yankees righty are a bloated .342 batting average on balls in play in tandem with an elevated 18 percent home run to fly ball rate. This is the area that likely combines bad luck with bad pitching.
The expected ERA of xFIP fleshes the assumed luck out of home run rate and lands Pineda at a much more palatable 3.24. If you're in a seasonal league, it's fair to expect Pineda's ERA to regress towards the better mark down the stretch.
The number-crunchers consider him a great option since his xFIP says he's a bargain for his price tag. The gut players stack against him, mostly to counter those using him as their pitcher, expecting that he'll continue to struggle. It's a great debate, one which will persist until we get a better handle on the next wave of data, namely exit velocity, launch angle and the like.
The immediate concern is Pineda squaring off with another sabermetric enigma in Dallas Keuchel. Adding to the intrigue is the fact the Houston Astros provide the platform for Pineda to have a huge strikeout game, or knock him out early.
Speaking of Keuchel, his actual 4.70 ERA is more than a run higher than his 3.55 xFIP, so he too should see better outcomes down the stretch. It also should be noted that Minute Maid Park is perceived to be a hitter's park, since it's very homer-friendly, but in fact the venue plays neutral for runs. (Actually, the same is true of Yankee Stadium.) As for this contest, the Yankees don't strike out often, but also aren't very potent. Keuchel has worked at least six frames in 17 of his 20 outings, seven of which were seven innings or more.
New York Yankees are:
1-5 in Pineda?s last 6 starts against a team with a winning record.
6-13 in their last 19 road games against a team with a winning record.
2-7 in Pineda?s last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his latest appearance.
Hector Santiago, who has gone 8-4 with a 4.32 ERA in 20 starts this year, including 4-0 with a 1.08 ERA in his last four starts and 4-2 with a 3.03 ERA in 10 starts on the road. Santiago is now 13-13 with a 3.81 ERA in his last 41 games (37 starts) on the road and 7-1 with a 2.17 ERA in his last nine starts in July, while vs the Royals he is 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA in his last 6 games (5 starts), including 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three starts here at Kauffman Stadium.
Los Angeles is:
3-10 in their last 13 during game one of a series
1-4 in Santiago?s last five starts during game one of a series
Kansas City is:
20-9 in their last 29 games vs. a left-handed starter
12-5 in their last 17 home games vs. a left-handed starter
Peavy (5-8, 5.15 ERA) has never lost a home game against Cincinnati, going 4-0 while allowing only 37 hits in 52 innings. His ERA over those seven starts (three no-decisions) is 1.90.
Peavy has been remarkably resilient since joining the Giants in a trade from the Red Sox for pitchers Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree in 2014. His 19-18 record tells only half the story.
Six of those losses came against teams Peavy faced again later in the same season. He won all six of the rematches, allowing only 13 runs in 39 2/3 innings (2.95 ERA) after having gotten lit up for 21 runs in 28 2/3 innings (6.59) in the first meeting.
He will be looking to extend that run to seven straight against the Reds, who roughed up Peavy for eight hits and seven runs in six innings in a 7-4 Cincinnati win on May 4.
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
Pick: San Francisco Giants
The SF Giants owned MLB?s best record at the All Star break (57-33) but the team has won just ONE of eight games (a 2-1, 12-inning victory this past Saturday) since resuming play. The Giants? NL West lead has been cut to three games over the Dodgers (down from 6 1/2 games at the break) as they get set to open a week-long homestand on Monday night against the 38-60 Cincinnati Reds. The Giants return home off a 1-7 road trip in which they batted just .125 (9-for-72) with RISP, averaging only 2.88 RPG. The Reds are 6-3 since the break but remain in last place in the NL Central, a whopping 21 /2 games back of the Cubs.
Anthony DeSclafani (5-0, 2.50 ERA) will take the mound for the Reds and Jake Peavy (5-8, 5.15 ERA) starts for the Giants. DeSclafani didn?t make his first start of 2016 until June 10 but after two no-decisions to open his season, he?s won FIVE of his last six starts. The Reds are 6-2 in his eight starts this year and despite making only eight starts, his five wins is tied for the most of any Cincinnati pitcher. He enters this contest having posted SIX consecutive quality starts but in his only career start vs the Giants, allowed SIX runs (all earned) in just three innings of a 9-8 loss back on May 17, 2015.
A look at Jake Peavy?s 5.15 ERA paints a poor picture but note that after the Giants lost SIX of his first nine starts of 2016, the team has rebounded to win SEVEN of his last 10 (the Giants are 10-9 in his starts this season, plus-$109 vs the moneyline).
Peavy?s just 19-18 since joining the Giants in a trade from the Red Sox but a deeper look shows that six of those losses came against teams Peavy faced again later in the same season and he won all six of the rematches while posting a 2.95 ERA, after owning a 6.59 ERA in the first meetings.
Maybe more importantly, Peavy is an impressive 7-1 with a 2.92 ERA in 13 career starts vs the Reds, with his teams going a money-making 11-2. He?s also NEVER lost a home start against Cincinnati, going 4-0 while allowing only 37 hits in 52 innings, while posting a 1.90 ERA. With the first-place Nats (NL East) coming to town Thursday for four games, this series is a great opportunity for the Giants to gain some momentum with a three-game sweep of the Reds. First things first and I?ll back Peavy and the Giants, tonight.
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -130
A sluggish start to the second half of the 2016 MLB campaign has the San Francisco Giants squad pleased to be back home at friendly AT&T Park. The Giants aim to reverse their fortunes (3-7 last 10 games overall) when they host the Cincinnati Reds on Monday in the opener of a three-game set.
San Francisco exited the first half of the season with a 6 1/2-game lead in the National League West. Following the Mid-Summer Classic the Giants have stumbled and take on the Reds tonight off a 1-7 road trip. The Giants currently own a 3-game lead over second place Los Angeles. The Reds finished a 6-3 homestand with a tough 9-8 loss to Arizona on Sunday afternoon.
Reds
DeSclafani has strung together six consecutive quality starts posted six straight quality starts. The Reds right-hander has not walked a batter in three straight turns DeSclafani tries to improve to 6-0 since returning from a left oblique strain that resulted in the righty missing the first two months of the season. The young right-hander is 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in eight starts. The aforementioned numbers are a signal that negative regression is forthcoming. DeSclafani has a below average strikeout rate (19%) and has been extremely fortunate with his strand ratio (83%). DeSclafani has also struggled against left-handed bats the past 2 seasons offering up a .350 wOBA. DeSclafani's lone start versus the Giants, a season ago, resulted in six runs allowed over three innings.
Giants
Peavy's two start week for the scuffling G-Men begins with a test against an inconsistent and pedestrian Cincinnati offense. Peavy sports a 3.46 FIP at home, vs. a 4.89 FIP on the road. His 5.15 ERA is the result of poor luck, overall, and nearly one run higher than his FIP year-to-date. His Swinging Strike percentage is up to 10.3%, the highest it?s been since 2008.
Outlook
The Giants do what they do well, defend their Bay turf and surf, and Peavy executes a quality start against the visiting Reds tonight and does so at a bargain price. Peavy is 7-1 with a 2.92 ERA in his career against the Reds and has issued two or fewer walks in 12 consecutive starts.
Under is 7-2-2 in DeSclafanis last 11 road starts.
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox -136
Recently acquired southpaw Drew Pomeranz arrived in Boston in the thick of a breakout campaign, posting a 2.47 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across seventeen starts. Unfortunately, the 27-year-old struggled in his Fenway debut, yielding five earned runs on 8 hits in just three innings against the Giants. "It takes about a week," Pomeranz said of getting acclimated with a new team. "When you transition anywhere, you have to remember what you've done all year. I know my approach, but they have their own approach here. It is all about integrating into one."
Despite last week's disappointing outing, Pomeranz's 2.83 ERA is fully supported by his peripheral: 3.37 FIP, 3.66 xFIP and a 3.75 SIERA. Pomeranz's ground ball rate has improved (46.7% GB% vs. 42.2% GB% in 2015) and he boasts a phenomenal 27.7% strikeout rate (10.20 K/9).
Upon arriving in Boston, Pomeranz ranked eighth in ERA-, 13th in FIP- and 21st in K-BB% out of 143 starting pitchers with a minimum 50 innings. In other words, it's important not to overreact to one start that came shortly after being traded from San Diego to the east coast.
Pomeranz's success has been predicated upon the development of a third pitch - a cutter - that was initially introduced to him by former Minor League teammate Travis Higgs during the offseason. "He showed me the grip and where to apply the pressure," Pomeranz said. Combined with an effective fastball and curveball, the cut fastball has allowed Pomeranz to keep batters off balance.
In his first seven starts this season, Pomeranz only threw the cutter 4% of the time. However, since May 18, a span encompassing 10+ starters, Pomeranz has thrown the cutter 19% of the time. "It has made all the difference in the world," Pomeranz said about his development of the cut fastball.
Even more impressive is the fact that Pomeranz is adept at throwing all three pitches at varying speeds and at any count. Since May 18, Pomeranz is ranked in the 92nd percentile in exit velocity allowed, which is the byproduct of his cut fastball. Pomeranz was also yielding a .328 OPS during his third time through the order prior to last week's outing, which was the best mark in baseball by over 100 points!
Pomeranz should have success against a Detroit lineup averaging just 4.5 runs per game on the road (.258 AVG.; .316 OBP; .728 OPS) and 3.0 runs over its last seven games (.242 AVG.; .296 OBP; .655 OPS). Technically speaking, Detroit is a money-burning 15-36 in its last 51 trips to Fenway Park, including losing its last five with Justin Verlander on the mound.
The Tigers are also 3-10 in Verlander's last 13 starts versus American League East foes and 2-5 in his last seven starts during game 1 of a series, whereas Boston is 6-0 in its last 6 during game 1 of a series and 9-2 in its last eleven home games. Detroit is a money-burning 2-8 in its last 8 road games versus teams with a winning record and 6-3 in its last 19 road games versus left-handed starters, including 0-4 in its last four against southpaws.
Cardinals +1.5 -145
I'm always a fan of taking better teams getting +1.5 Vs. a weak hitting team with one of the teams best pitchers...We have that here with the Cards and Martinez...Martinez hasn't allowed 4 runs or more going back to May....So asking him to give up 4 runs to a weak hitting team is tough...Not to mention we are getting +1.5 runs here...Cards have lost 2 in a row now and that will give them a boost here to hang Vs. Syndergaard...He hasn't been super sharp in his last 7 games..Some are hit and miss with some gems, but he can be hit versus this lineup...We get a low total here of 7, so the +1.5 is more valuable to us here..i'll take a shot here with the Cards at +1.5
Reds vs. Giants
Play: Under 8
The books have set the total too high for Monday's matchup between the Reds and Giants. Two underrated starters take the mound in this one. San Francisco sends out Jake Peavy against Cincinnati's Anthony Deslafani. Peavy has pitched much better at home compared to on the road and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of this last 8 starts. Deslafani on the other hand has been lights out since joining the rotation. He's 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in 8 starts. He hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in a single start this season. UNDER is 10-2-1 in Deslafani's last 13 starts against a team with a winning record and 7-1-1 in Peavy's last 9 starts against a team with a losing record.
St. Louis Cardinals +163
I'm willing to take a shot with the St. Louis Cardinals as massive road underdogs against the New York Mets in Game 1 of this series Monday night. This is a much more evenly-matched game on the mound than this line would indicate.
Carlos Martinez continues to go under the radar. He's 9-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in seven road starts.
Martinez has never lost to the Mets, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in two career starts against them. He has pitched 10 1/3 innings without allowing a single earned run in those two starts.
St. Louis is a very profitable 27-16 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season. The Cardinals are 10-2 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. St. Louis is 16-5 in Martinez's last 21 road starts.
Philadelphia +140 over MIAMI
Jeremy Hellickson has made some notable gains with his secondary offerings this year, particularly his change-up. With two near-elite offerings in his change-up and curveball, Hellickson has the goods to survive and occasionally thrive without lighting up the radar gun. There doesn't seem to be much room for further growth in his already high-quality curveball and change-up and the long-term velocity trend suggests that Hellickson isn't about to rediscover the upper-end of the "88-93 mph" range he brought with him to the bigs nearly six years ago. He can certainly survive with his current repertoire and it?s also worth noting that he?s been downright dominant against right-handed lineups and the Fish have a heavy right-handed lineup. Aside from that, this wager is more aboyut fading Jarred Cosart.
Cosart made three starts in April before Miami's patience with him came to an end. Cosart's 7.98 ERA somewhat exaggerates how bad his performance was in April but that's damning him with faint praise. His xERA was still a terrible 6.18 and it doesn?t appear that he worked out anything in the minors. In those three aforementoned starts at this level in April, Cosart walked 15 batters in 15 innings and struck out eight. In 58 minor-league innings since the demotion, Cosart walked 26 and whiffed 34. Dude couldn?t even strike out minor-leaguers at an acceptable rate. The sum of the parts has fallen short of the whole. Cosart?s K?s are sparse despite mid-90s heater. His swing and miss rate in the minors was 5% and it was 4% when he pitched here in April. The one constant has been shoddy control and until he reins that in, he'll continue to be enigmatic and largely unplayable. Concurrent and steady plummets in skills and first-pitch strike rate give no hope of a rebound. If you were thinking Miami, move on.
Coldest pitcher: Martin Perez, Texas (7-7, 4.37 ERA)
Perez has been horrid in the month of July, going 0-3 with an 8.34 ERA in four starts in the month, allowing five or more earned runs in each of his past three outings, all losses. Perez posted quality starts in six of seven outings from May 8 to June 9, but he has managed just two over his past seven assignments since. The Rangers have been terrible lately, winning just 3-8 in their past 11 games, and Perez doesn't figure to stem the tide of losing. While the Rangers are a surprising 8-3 in his past 11 outings, they're 0-5 in his past five against teams with a losing overall record.
Biggest UNDER run: Orioles (12-0 past 12)
The 'under' run for Baltimore has been amazing, one of a handful of impressive streaks. The 'under' is also 10-0 in the past 10 for the Yankees, 1-10-1 in the past 12 for the Mets and 2-8 over the past 10 for the Giants. Suddenly the offense has dried up for a lot of teams. Strong pitching has been the key to Baltimore's amazing under run, as they have allowed three or fewer runs in each of their past four games, and nine of the past 12 outings. They face a Colorado team which has seen the under go 12-4 in their past 16 against right-handed starting pitching, and 7-2 in their past nine road outings.
Biggest OVER run: Cardinals (5-3 past 8)
Offense has been at a premium lately in the majors, as teams appear to have a hangover after the All-Star break. The Cardinals have bucked that trend somewhat, as the 'over' is 5-3 in their past eight games, 5-1 in their past six against National League East teams and 3-1-5 in Martinez's past nine outings against NL East teams. The under is the predominant trend for the Mets, but the over is 4-1 in Noah Syndergaard's past five home outings and 7-2 in his past nine games overall.
