Monday: Play of the Day

[superbook]

No POD today, I'm struggling to find any edge anywhere.

One regular play so far:

Canisius -6.5 (bought a half point at -120)

I hate to bet on a bad team to beat a worse team, but that is what this one is all about. Caveat emptor.

This game is being played on a neutral court at the Pepsi Arena, and even though St. Peter's is the local team I don't think their the 300 fans that attend their home games are going to make much noise in the 15,500 seat Pepsi Arena.

St. Peter's is 1-14 this season and 0-3 ATS at home. They played a decent game in their last outing, only losing to Niagara by seven after being up by 10 at the half.

But in their last five games, St. Peter's is 0-4-1 ATS while Canisius is 3-0 ATS (two of their games didn't have lines). So what I see is an improving team vs. a bad team getting worse.

Rebounding should be even, but Canisius does a much better job of hanging on to the ball. In their last game vs Siena, Canisius only committed four turnovers while St. Peter's is averaging 20 turnovers per game.

Also, Canisius should have the shooting edge: they're shooting 41% from the field and 41% from the arc in their last five vs. 36% from the field and only 20% from three for St. Peter's.


back with some more picks later

 

[superbook]

This is a tough schedule for me today as only a few of the teams I know are playing. That said, I'll go with another MAAC team:

Iona +4.5 (bought half a point at -120)

It seems like most people are on Siena but IMO Iona has stepped up their level of play recently and I think this one will be very close so I'll take Iona and the points.

In their last meeting on 1/3/02, Siena visited Iona and beat them on their home court 79-70 in OT. Iona hit just 1-10 from the field in the overtime period.

Since that game, Iona suspended junior reserve center Ramel Allen (1.3 ppg and 2.6 rpg) and dismissed senior guard Leland Norris (8.9 ppg and 2.1 rpg). But 6-9 sophomore center Greg Jenkins has stepped up, averaging 15 ppg and 8 rpg while shooting 62% from the field in their last five.

Iona coach Jeff Ruland (the former NBA player) believes in playing tough D. Iona has led the MAAC in FG % defense 5 of the last 6 seasons and is #1 so far this year, limiting opponents to just 38.7% from the field.

Siena is #1 in the MAAC in rebounding (38/game) but Iona has been much more aggressive on the boards of late: The Gaels are averaging 39 rpg in their L5 vs an average of 34 rpg for the season. I was especially impressed with how they outrebounded Fairfield 45-27 in their last game as the Stags have some big guys in Ajou Deng and Deng Gai. Part of this is the improved play by Jenkins.

In their L5, Siena is 0-4-1 ATS. Iona is 11-3 in their last fourteen MAAC television games, which tells me that they know how to win in the big MAAC games.

Not a huge play, but worth a look.

 

[superbook]

Adding one last play:

Georgetown/Notre Dame Over 140.5 (Grand Central)

Georgetown is coming off a 68-67 loss to Pittsburgh; 67 is their second lowest total of the year and they shot just 36.7% from the field and 4 of 14 3's. IMO they'll get their shooting back up to their 45% average in this game.

Notre Dame tends to score more at home on the road.

I think this will be a close game with both teams scoring over 70.

Notre Dame 78-74.

gl

 

[superbook]

Tailspinning Siena facing tough Iona
By TIM WILKIN, Staff writer
First published: Monday, January 21, 2002

ALBANY -- First-year Siena coach Rob Lanier skipped the bus ride home from Buffalo Saturday night, opting instead to drive back with his wife.

His mood had to be foul as he had just witnessed his Siena College men's basketball team get swallowed up by Canisius, 76-68.

"Man, losing is hard,'' Lanier said Sunday evening. "My wife asked me in the car if losing hurts more now than when I was an assistant. The losses feel a whole lot worse now.''

The way things have been going lately, Lanier might have that feeling more frequently as the season heads into the middle of winter. Siena has lost its last two games and plays Iona today at 6 p.m. at Pepsi Arena.

It is the last game of a tripleheader on Pearl Street. The Siena women start things off at 1 p.m. when the Saints put their 12-game winning streak on the line against Loyola.

Following that, the men's teams from St. Peter's and Canisius play at 4 p.m. St. Peter's is giving up its home game with the Golden Griffs to play here so the game will be part of a Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference men's televised doubleheader.

The scheduling is a bit odd, however. Siena and Canisius played in Buffalo on Saturday and both teams are here today but don't play each other. A week from today, Canisius will be back in Albany, this time to play the Saints.

Before that, however, Siena goes back to Western New York to play at Niagara next Saturday.

Lanier, most assuredly, is not worrying about the quirks in the MAAC schedule. He is more worried about his team.

Against Canisius, the Saints came out dead on their feet, falling behind by as many as 17 points before making a game of it in the second half. Playing part of a game has happened before.

Siena played a miserable first half on the road against Loyola before winning in triple overtime. The Saints also were terrible in the second half against St. Peter's but had built a big first half cushion and survived, 73-59.

This pattern is beginning to wear on Lanier, who is adamant that it has to stop.

"Why we didn't play at the start of that Canisius game is beyond me,'' Lanier said. "I have to try and find a way to fix that. We get after it on the practice floor and the kids really work. This isn't the WWF where you can be laying on the ropes and then all of a sudden have all this energy. Either you bring it or you don't.''

Lanier and the Saints met at 5 p.m. Sunday night to watch film -- only senior Dwayne Archbold (33 points) could have felt he didn't cheat his coach -- and then practiced for Iona, a team they beat in overtime (79-70) on Jan. 3.

Before the Canisius game, Siena lost at home to Manhattan. Before that, the Saints had won their last four games but Lanier warned everyone Siena was not where he wanted it to be.

The other problem is Lanier needs someone to help his senior star Archbold.

"It goes without saying that you can't win with just one guy,'' Lanier said.

Iona was very successful in stopping Ajou Deng in their last game vs Fairfield, hopefully they can do the same tonite vs Archbold.

 

[ironlock]

The buying of the half point seems to be foolish in spots like this...

I was always under the impression that buying onto 3 in football was the single area in which one could gain value by buying points, that is was even foolish to buy off of 3 in football. In light of that, I have trouble understanding how this would be smart for anyone....

Interested to hear your justification for this mathematically...

Thanks..

 

[superbook]

Ironlock --

I have absolutely no mathematical justification for the buying of the half points.

Obviously the extra juice only costs me if I lose on that play so I view it simply as "insurance". But I know that in college hoops this year the extra half point has saved me more than it has cost me in the extra juice.

This is not a long-term study nor is it statistically significant so I don't recommend it to anyone. I only make note of it in case someone questions the line I post.

gl

 

[ironlock]

OK....

Thanks.

By the way, I lost six games by 1/2 or 1 point on Saturday, so believe me, I wish I had it a few times...but over the long run, I believe its a losing proposition..

Good luck to you Super.

 

[superbook]

Ironlock --

My experience has been like yours, it seemed like I was losing by a half point a lot so I started buying them and that seemed to help.

Maybe the lines are tighter than ever?

Do you know of any source which summarizes the performance of all games in a sport against the closing lines? It would be interesting to see and maybe then I could mathematically justify my behavior.

gl

 

[jmizeus]

CALL HIM--BUFFALO BOB LANIER GL-ON YOUR PLAY'S!

 

[superbook]

1-2

Two MAAC losers and one Big East win on a total.

I should have known better than to play those middle-of-the-pack Jeckyl/Hyde MAAC teams and just to lay off the games today given the light schedule.

Let's get them tomorrow.