Monday September 10th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Monday September 10th 2007

yesterday: 9-4 +7.63
September: 67-62 +11.96
ml 27-20 +9.25
rl 1-4 -7.67
totals 27-14 +9.7
parlays & IFs 12-24 +0.68
system picks 2-1 yesterday; 17-15 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 4-1 yesterday; 21-10 in September (67.7%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

mil 60% (-125)+4
wash 59 (+103)+9
col 52 (+120)+6
Mets 60 (-101)+9
Sf 60 (-135)+2
Bost 54 (-165)-9 tb 46 (+157)+7
tor 61 (-103)+10
Kc 63 (+103)+13
clev 54 (-165)-9 Cws 46 (+157)+7
oak 58 (+107)+9
Cubs 59 (-135)+1

system totals

atl@Mets un8.5 72% (+106)+23
ariz@Sf un8.5 67 (+101)+17
tb@Bost un9.5 65 (-116)+11


I told you. No problem. Went 4-2 on the moneyline and 4-1 on totals. Sure could have used a Padres win but at least got something out with the Rockies under 5, which didn't look to good after they scored 3 in the first. D'Backs come from behind win?a play I added late?kind of makes up for my 3 burns yesterday; the Gods owed me and I guess that was the payback. Not only ended the losing streak at one day but I've turned a plus now for 5 of the past 6 days. The icing on the cake is my great week (so far) in the NFL; hit my top 2 plays in the Steelers and the Seahawks; gauranteed a plus on the week but a Cowboys win or the Ravens not losing by double-digits will only grant me a larger smile in the future; I'm very excited about this year's NFL season after this weekend as I imagine that my accuracy will only improve with more information (only real boo-boo this week was expecting the Jags to handle the Titans?I'm sure I wasn't alone on that).

As for Monday's baseball, system picks are the Mets, the Blue Jays and the Royals (incredible that I am doing so well with system picks really not impressing so far this month?totals are rocking?helps large). Hudson is kind of cold and the Mets are smoking, and last start by Perez was a total umpire-fvck?if you read my post(s) you would have caught my word about the over-ump going and my concern about Oliver and the BB's, which is what really hurt him last start?bottom line is that he can compete with Tim and the Mets bats are much hotter than the Bravesticks right now. Jays is a Halladay start and facing a lefty?the Jays best hope; I still think that the Jays might be good fade material from here on out (I freakin knew they would lose Sunday but had to give them 1 more shot to give me playoff hope?besides, I had the Jays on a series play (they DID take the first 1.8 games), but they have a good shot on Monday. Royals Buckner is a bit of a gamble but the Royals are the hotter hitting team and they've seen Bonser FIVE TIMES already this season (Boof is 0-2 with a 4.91 era); I think that a call of 60% or higher is very warranted for this contest so the Royals are totally a system pick.

Other sides with value appear to be the Brewers, Nationals, Rockies, D'Rays, Chisox and A's. Devil Rays and Pale Hose I like the least, as they both have calls under 50%, but the others all look promising. Nats are good against lefties and have hit Olsen before (5.14 era in 4 vs Nats '07) while Hill is an undervalued pitcher. Brewers bats really on fire lately and face, in my opinion, a very soft pitcher in Armas?Villanueva looked pretty good last start so I'll give the seemingly hot Brew-Crew a shot. Rockies Jimenez has great stuff but is getting burned by one poor inning or a lack of run support; might be tough facing the Phillies at their home but I like the pitching matchup, favoring Colorado, and I think that the Rockies should get 4-6 off of Lohse and Co (a "Co" which still really sucks) which might be enough if Jimenez can have a solid start (this will be his first vs, and he should perform better than the past couple of Marlins starters have). A's appear worth a shot due to the SP matchup; M's big game yesterday may have them fooled into thinking that they're still in the playoff race so they likely keep this one competitive.

All 3 posted totals look worthwhile to me. System totals are kicking ass in September so who am I to question authority?

Will post all plays. I love todays.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

brewers ov4.5 -135 (+8)Brewers 7-day OPS at .944...staggering...got a piece of the moneyline but, if the 'Boys hang on, I think I want a piece of this
--have Pitt at -5

nationals ov4.5 -115 (+9)Olsen a 5.14 era during 4 vs the Nats in '07, meaning they've seen him lots; Nats OPS vs L 50 points higher than vs R; Nats 7-day OPS only .694 but that's typical for them; Olsen a longshot to toss a good game; Marlins pen has improved as the season has progressed
--have Fla at -3; Hill a 2.82 era in four '07 meetings

braves un4 +100 (-8)got Perez rated 1 point higher than Hudson, here, as Tim has not been sharp lately; giving an edge to Mets at the plate, too, so the moneyline looks smarter than this; Braves 7-day OPS .733
--have Mets at -4; Mets 7-day .868

d'backs un4 -110 (-11)Lincecum stellar in 1 earlier start (his only) vs D'Backs and D'Backs OPS on the road is 80 points lower than at home...I think they might struggle, here; trying the game total, as Livan has been decent and D'Backs pen is cool, but I don't know about the side (SF) or this team total; 'Zona 7-day at .836, helped a lot by recent home games
--have Giants at -4

Kc ov4.5 -130 (+7)Bonser 0-2 with a 4.91 era in 5 starts this year vs Royals; gimme a break, though...moneyline much cheaper and looks much better; Royals 7-day OPS .845
--have Twins at -3; Twins 7-day at .699

M's un4.5 -105 (-7)Blanton 0-2, 4.71 in three '07 starts but has been sharp lately; I'm on the moneyline which is all that I'll risk on this fading A's team for Monday; M's 7-day at .689 which won't include Sunday's outburst
--have A's at +5; A's best vs lefties and Ramirez is a stinker this year


Them's the goods.

Can the 'Boys freakin' hang on here?!?!?:scared


:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

PLAYS

system picks

Mets -101 2.02/2
blue jays -103 2.06/2
Royals +103 2/2.06

other picks

brewers -125 1.25/1
nationals +103 2/2.06
rockies +120 1/1.2
a's +107 2/2.14

totals

atl@Mets un8.5 +106 1/1.06
ariz@Sf un8.5 +101 0.8/0.81
tb@Bost un9.5 -116 0.81/0.7

2-teamer (best-looking road squads)
--brewers ml
--blue jays ml
+226
0.5/1.13

2-teamer (best-looking home squads)
--Mets ml
--Royals ml
+260
0.5/1.3

11-team IF bet
1.devil rays 0.6/0.9
2.brewers 0.67/0.5
3.rockies 0.5/0.55
4.ariz-Sf un8.5 0.63/0.6
5.ravens +3 -125 1/0.8
6.blue jays 1.15/1
7.nationals 1.32/1.2
8.Royals 1.1/1
9.a's 1.05/1.05
10.Cubs 1.4/1
11.White Sox 1/1.5
0.6 to win max.10.1

12-team IF bet
1.White Sox 0.6/0.9
2.nationals 0.55/0.5
3.Royals 0.55/0.5
4.blue jays 0.8/0.7
5.atl-Mets un8.5 0.52/0.5
6.ravens ml 0.8/1
7.brewers 0.94/0.7
8.a's 1/1
9.Cubs 1.4/1
10.rockies 1/1.1
11.tb-Bost un9.5 1.8/1.5
12.Giants 1.4/1
0.6 to win max.10.4


I think that's plenty for Monday. Between the NFL and MLB I cleared more than 20 units on Sunday so I'm a very happy camper to start off this week. Cleared about 15 units on posted plays and bagged about another 7 on non-posted plays (not sure what to do with combo plays (parlays and such with both) so I won't count them within MJ's but will enjoy the benefits regardless). Mets and Royals look best to me, today, but I've decided not to go too much on either as Hudson could be due for a solid performance and in K.C. there is a big edge in experience to Bonser over Buckner. It must be told, though, that the Mets are the much hotter hitting team than Atlanta and they've got at least an equal shot from the mound for this one, and in K.C. we've got a Royals team hitting much better than the Twins lately and Boof has not been great against the Royals this season?they've seen him plenty, are hitting great right now, and Boof was pretty bad in his last start. Besides those two?I'm praying for a Jays victory (will be tough) and also think that the Nationals are a solid play today. Brewers look good, too, but I'll be cautious backing Carlos V as the Pirates aren't hitting too bad lately. Rockies have a decent shot with the SP mismatch and the A's?well?I made that bet when the Sunday game was in rain delay and was subsequently not impressed by the A's giving up 12 runs in the contest (I think it was 12?wasn't it?); still believe that there is a big SP mismatch here, favoring the A's, so I'm hoping for continuation from Ramirez (i.e. a crappy start).

Shea game under looks real good save for the fact that the Mets are hitting great while Hudson has been shaky for about 4 straight starts now. Giants game should play under with a decent start from Livan. D'Rays Kazmir has been a little shaky, for 2 starts now, but overall since the AS break he has been dynamite and I think that he can hold the Bosox to 5 or less here (have the Bosox team total at -2 as, despite his past 2 rocky outtings; Kazmir's work vs the Bosox has been decent and he should make a game of it here); Schilling has some hot bats in the D'Rays to contend with but he seems to be steadily improving since coming off of the DL.

The weekend was phenomenal.
Happy to Keep On Chooglin'.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

heads up on Tuesday's board:

Brewers and Mets will be system picks if they win their respective games tonight.
Mariners will be a system pick even if hell freezes over.

Others I'm considering are the Cards, Cubs, Padres, Orioles, (2)Tigers, Jays:scared , Twins and (1)Rangers.

I'm going to have 3 system overs (Philly,Houston,Chisox) and 3 system unders (Mets,Dodgers,(2)Tigers). I think that makes for a real nice balance--I'm glad my system is calling more overs, unlike earlier in the year when it was mostly unders.

M's runline will be a 60% call, unless they get wasted tonight, so it looks worthwhile too. Mariners over 5, currently at -125, also looks inviting. Key to this match is the Mariners are 15-2 at home to lefties (.883) and Braden is a poor one to boot. This call will be in the low to mid 70's depending on tonight's action. Easily the most promising of Tuesday's options.
That Philly game, over, (seen both 11 and 11.5) looks like the best total.

Will have the numbers up sometime around 9:37 pm eastern.
See you then.

:weed:

 

[Drew]

any thoughts on Twins o 4.5? I like them to get to Buckner. Curious on your thoughts

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Buckner looked a little shaky in his first go, last time, but he (supposedly) has potential, and the Twins 7-day and 10-day offensive numbers are pretty poor so I've got the Twins (team total-wise) at -3.

I'm trying the Royals as they're hitting much better than the Twins right now, and they've seen Bonser lots this season.
Game total over might be worth a shot.
System call is 61% over the 9.5.

GL

 

[Drew]

Thanks for the reply. May just lay off that game in general. Twins arent exactly consistent at the plate.