Monday September 3rd 2007
yesterday: 6-12 -7.98
September: 19-18 +3.65
ml 7-5 +2.82
rl 1-3 -6.52
totals 8-0 +8.17
parlays & IFs 3-10 -0.82
system picks 1-4 Sunday; 5-6 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-2 Sunday; 6-2 in September
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
phil 57% (-110)+4
fla 56 (+122)+10
Cin 56 (-120)+1
Mil 56 (-120)+1
Stl 63 (-135)+5
Col 56 (-136)-2
Cubs 55 (-167)-8 lad 45 (+159)+6
sd 53 (-110)even
Nyy 64 (-170)+1
Min 51 (-126)-5
Bost 63 (-200)-4
Tb 73 (Shields-Burres)
kc 57 (+112)+9
Laa 54 (-155)-7 oak 46 (+147)+5
system totals
hou@Mil un8 66% (-125)+10
sf@Col un9.5 76 (-120)+21
sd@Ariz un9 67 (-112)+14
oak@Laa ov9 70 (-125)+14
Had a rough Sunday. Went 3-0 on totals, at least. Absolutely no other bright spots but the Tigers blowing a 7-run lead sure blew and so did the performances by the Yankees and Indians. Giants also blew a solid game by Zito. I have very little positive to say about yesterday, save for the totals, so let's move on, shall we?...
I can't believe that a VandenHurk game is a system pick, but that's what I'm showing. I might still change that one?it's kinda bugging me (though he has pitched 2 solid games in a row, and the Nats ARE the Nats?Marlins big numbers Sunday makes it a decent play, I suppose). Royals are the next closest thing; Greinke should be able to go at least 6, this time round, and the Royals pen has been pretty good so I like them, somewhat, over Loe and company; not one to pound as the Rangers are putting up some big numbers sometimes lately (nahhhh...who neededs sleepeze, Mikey?!?:com: ). No system picks elsewhere (need a break after yesterday's 1-4). A few maybe with some value; Phillies Moyer has done great work against the Braves this year and I still think that Cormier might truly be perpetual fade material, though he was quite good in his last; I'm not high on Moyer, currently, but, like I say, he's done good work vs the Braves this year. A bit of value with the Cardinals, at current lines, but nothing else looks any good save for maybe the dogs Dodgers and A's; Zambrano has been crap for 3 straight starts while Loaiza looked real good against the Jays a couple of times before being shipped off to LA; Santana's current rating is bordering on fade material while Gaudin might give the A's a shot (he's had 2 great, 1 good, and 1 crappy over his past 4)?hard to go against the Angels at home, regardless of how crappy Santana is going?Gaudin isn't really rated all that high in my books (much higher than Santana, currently, though) and the A's pen is nothing special; I likely take a pass on both so why all the fuss about them?guess there's few that seem worth talking about.
Totals interest me more than sides, today. I'm already on the Miller Park (Mil) game under and the Coors (Col) game under. Both look very promising. Oswalt looks phenomenal the past while and Sheets is taking over from where he left off before going on the DL, which means superb work by him. Oswalt doesn't have great numbers vs the Brewers this year (0-2, 4.50 era) but has been dynamite lately. Sheets' numbers vs Astros are somewhat better. Brewers pen should hold while Astros bullpen is always a concern for undershots. The other concern for that one would be the Brewers explosive work on this current homestand, though the best of it came against the last pair of lefties they faced (Brew-Crew OPS vs L almost !!!100 points!!! higher than vs R?Brewers hitting .382 last 10 vs L but only .220 last 10 vs R?further proof). As for the other total?that one looks maybe sweeter; Cain has a 1.35 era in 4 games vs the Rockies this season (THAT is consistency) and is in absolutely fantastic form lately, including taming the Rockies in his last (won 3-1?was vs Morales); Francis is 2-2 with a 3.99 era vs the Giants this season but just shut them out in his last start (won 8-0?was vs Lowry); Coors is giving us a fairly decent number here so I'm grabbing some of the 9.5 (also available at 9, and actually for a better price (+105), so either one looks tasty). I really like this one and the pathetic work by the Giantsticks Sunday, vs a (much) worse lefty, only makes the play look better to me as I'm more concerned about Francis' ability to shut down the G-Men than I am of Cain shutting down the Rockies (Rocks the better sticks but Cain quite a bit hotter than Francis over the past while, despite Francis' shutout, and 4 games with an era of 1.35 is fantastic?worth repeating?I've got the Giants at -12 and the Rockies at -11 for this contest, as far as my team total analysis goes, and YES those are reduced (increased, actually, from larger minuses) due to this being Coors. For the other game I've got Houston -12 and Milwaukee -11, again a pair of figures lower than -10. Looking solid(s).
I might try a piece of the other 2 totals but they don't compare to the others I've discussed. Miller Park game has a simlar call, percent-wise, but I'm liking that one a lot more than the Maddux-Owings matchup (Greg, who has pretty poor career numbers vs the D'Backs but was great vs them in his last, and Micah, who I'm not overly confident in, though he shut down the Padres pretty good in HIS last (faced each other; Padres won 3-1 at Petco)()). Playing the A's over, right now, doesn't seem so smart, to me (maybe a little more...NOW...after their productive late work Sunday...curses...), but the A's are really facing the weak link in the Angels rotation for this one; Angels might hit Gaudin, especially with their great work at home, but, as I mentioned, over Chad's past 4 he's thrown 2 beauties, 1 good one, and 1 stinker, which is pretty good work overall. Small on these other two, if I tackle them.
Will post picks. Sure took my licks.
GL
yesterday: 6-12 -7.98
September: 19-18 +3.65
ml 7-5 +2.82
rl 1-3 -6.52
totals 8-0 +8.17
parlays & IFs 3-10 -0.82
system picks 1-4 Sunday; 5-6 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-2 Sunday; 6-2 in September
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
phil 57% (-110)+4
fla 56 (+122)+10
Cin 56 (-120)+1
Mil 56 (-120)+1
Stl 63 (-135)+5
Col 56 (-136)-2
Cubs 55 (-167)-8 lad 45 (+159)+6
sd 53 (-110)even
Nyy 64 (-170)+1
Min 51 (-126)-5
Bost 63 (-200)-4
Tb 73 (Shields-Burres)
kc 57 (+112)+9
Laa 54 (-155)-7 oak 46 (+147)+5
system totals
hou@Mil un8 66% (-125)+10
sf@Col un9.5 76 (-120)+21
sd@Ariz un9 67 (-112)+14
oak@Laa ov9 70 (-125)+14
Had a rough Sunday. Went 3-0 on totals, at least. Absolutely no other bright spots but the Tigers blowing a 7-run lead sure blew and so did the performances by the Yankees and Indians. Giants also blew a solid game by Zito. I have very little positive to say about yesterday, save for the totals, so let's move on, shall we?...
I can't believe that a VandenHurk game is a system pick, but that's what I'm showing. I might still change that one?it's kinda bugging me (though he has pitched 2 solid games in a row, and the Nats ARE the Nats?Marlins big numbers Sunday makes it a decent play, I suppose). Royals are the next closest thing; Greinke should be able to go at least 6, this time round, and the Royals pen has been pretty good so I like them, somewhat, over Loe and company; not one to pound as the Rangers are putting up some big numbers sometimes lately (nahhhh...who neededs sleepeze, Mikey?!?:com: ). No system picks elsewhere (need a break after yesterday's 1-4). A few maybe with some value; Phillies Moyer has done great work against the Braves this year and I still think that Cormier might truly be perpetual fade material, though he was quite good in his last; I'm not high on Moyer, currently, but, like I say, he's done good work vs the Braves this year. A bit of value with the Cardinals, at current lines, but nothing else looks any good save for maybe the dogs Dodgers and A's; Zambrano has been crap for 3 straight starts while Loaiza looked real good against the Jays a couple of times before being shipped off to LA; Santana's current rating is bordering on fade material while Gaudin might give the A's a shot (he's had 2 great, 1 good, and 1 crappy over his past 4)?hard to go against the Angels at home, regardless of how crappy Santana is going?Gaudin isn't really rated all that high in my books (much higher than Santana, currently, though) and the A's pen is nothing special; I likely take a pass on both so why all the fuss about them?guess there's few that seem worth talking about.
Totals interest me more than sides, today. I'm already on the Miller Park (Mil) game under and the Coors (Col) game under. Both look very promising. Oswalt looks phenomenal the past while and Sheets is taking over from where he left off before going on the DL, which means superb work by him. Oswalt doesn't have great numbers vs the Brewers this year (0-2, 4.50 era) but has been dynamite lately. Sheets' numbers vs Astros are somewhat better. Brewers pen should hold while Astros bullpen is always a concern for undershots. The other concern for that one would be the Brewers explosive work on this current homestand, though the best of it came against the last pair of lefties they faced (Brew-Crew OPS vs L almost !!!100 points!!! higher than vs R?Brewers hitting .382 last 10 vs L but only .220 last 10 vs R?further proof). As for the other total?that one looks maybe sweeter; Cain has a 1.35 era in 4 games vs the Rockies this season (THAT is consistency) and is in absolutely fantastic form lately, including taming the Rockies in his last (won 3-1?was vs Morales); Francis is 2-2 with a 3.99 era vs the Giants this season but just shut them out in his last start (won 8-0?was vs Lowry); Coors is giving us a fairly decent number here so I'm grabbing some of the 9.5 (also available at 9, and actually for a better price (+105), so either one looks tasty). I really like this one and the pathetic work by the Giantsticks Sunday, vs a (much) worse lefty, only makes the play look better to me as I'm more concerned about Francis' ability to shut down the G-Men than I am of Cain shutting down the Rockies (Rocks the better sticks but Cain quite a bit hotter than Francis over the past while, despite Francis' shutout, and 4 games with an era of 1.35 is fantastic?worth repeating?I've got the Giants at -12 and the Rockies at -11 for this contest, as far as my team total analysis goes, and YES those are reduced (increased, actually, from larger minuses) due to this being Coors. For the other game I've got Houston -12 and Milwaukee -11, again a pair of figures lower than -10. Looking solid(s).
I might try a piece of the other 2 totals but they don't compare to the others I've discussed. Miller Park game has a simlar call, percent-wise, but I'm liking that one a lot more than the Maddux-Owings matchup (Greg, who has pretty poor career numbers vs the D'Backs but was great vs them in his last, and Micah, who I'm not overly confident in, though he shut down the Padres pretty good in HIS last (faced each other; Padres won 3-1 at Petco)()). Playing the A's over, right now, doesn't seem so smart, to me (maybe a little more...NOW...after their productive late work Sunday...curses...), but the A's are really facing the weak link in the Angels rotation for this one; Angels might hit Gaudin, especially with their great work at home, but, as I mentioned, over Chad's past 4 he's thrown 2 beauties, 1 good one, and 1 stinker, which is pretty good work overall. Small on these other two, if I tackle them.
Will post picks. Sure took my licks.
GL
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