Monday

[Smitty]

well, i probably ain't gonna catch lightning in a bottle again like i did on saturday. not loving too much. if i can eke out a profit today, i'll be happy.

Military Bowl

virginia tech (+7) 2 units
vt (ML) 1 unit to win 2.2. obviously i can't love virginia tech. this is purely an anti-cincinnati play. i simply don't think they're that good. and i have to take 7 points. vt's season went in the toilet when josh jackson got knocked out of the odu game, but even with willis they beat 3 bowl teams. and all their losses after that game were against bowl teams. cincinnati went 3-2 against bowl teams this year, and the wins were against ohio, tulane, and USF with a backup qb. at least vt beat duke and virginia.

sure, cincinnati's defense has looked great, but here is national ranking of the offenses they've played, in terms of scoring offense:

97
72
12 (gave up 30 points)
111
80
21 (lost)
53
95
63 (gave up 23 to a USF team with a backup qb)
6 (lost)
108

so they have played a lot of bad offenses. virginia tech's offense ain't great, but they've put up 75 points their last 2 games. and today is willis' last chance to shine before his senior year.

interestingly, willis has been better away from home this year, throwing 9 TDs and only 2 INTs (13 & 6 at home). no surprise for a freshman, but ridder for cincinnati has been significantly worse on the road. at home, he completed 69% of his passes, with 14 TDs and only 2 INTs, averaging 10.1 yards/att. on the road, he completed 57% with 5 TDs and 3 INTs, averaging 5.9 yards/att. that difference in yards/att is huge. and this may be somewhat like a road game for the bearcats.

shit, i just talked myself into this...

over (52) 2 units. i think vt is going to be able to score, and this is kind of a hedge in case cincinnati is able to run wild against a vt run defense that has not been good.

 

[Smitty]

More Military Bowl

More Military Bowl

almost forgot... cincinnati's kicker made 5 of 12 fgs this year. 2 of 9 over 29 yards. let that sink in. bad kickers always seem to play a role in bowl games.

vt's kicker ain't great, but at least he was 8 for 8 inside 40 yards.

ok, moving on....

 

[Smitty]

Sun Bowl!

Sun Bowl!

the bowl game that cbs refuses to give up!

pitt (ML) 3 units to win 4.8.
under (52) 2 units. i'm not taking the points because a) i refuse to put more money on this game, and b) if stanford shows up, they will probably win easily. i'm counting on an ugly slugfest with pitt having a shot at winning at the end.

first, in case anyone missed it, bryce love is not playing. he's been dealing with injuries all year and wasn't much of a factor anyway. but he still gave stanford the threat of a run game. the other two main guys, scarlett and speights, averaged 4.1 and 3.7 yards/carry.

so what an interesting matchup... stanford can't run the ball and pittsburgh can't pass the ball. pickett threw for... are you ready for this?... 8 yards against clemson in the acc championship game. yup. he was 4 of 16 for 8 yards. and his long was 7 yards. so his other 3 completions went for 1 yard. :scared

on the other side of the ball.... pitt is bad against the run and ok against the pass. stanford is ok against the run and terrible against the pass. so neither team is equipped to exploit the other team's defensive weakness. clearly this game is going to be 10-10 in the fourth quarter. hopefully there won't be too many OTs.

 

[Smitty]

Redbox Bowl

Redbox Bowl

all season long, the players hope they make it to the redbox bowl. the winners get free dvd rentals for a year! because there is nothing that kids these days love more than dvds.

michigan st (ML) 4 units to win 4. i have completely flipped on this game. the more i look at it, the more i like michigan st (ugh).

QUICK, SOMEBODY PLEASE TELL ME IF KENNY WILLEKES IS NOT PLAYING TODAY!!

the spartans have won 5 of their last 6 bowl games. last year, they played another high-scoring team from the pac 12 and manhandled washington st 42-17. willekes is a monster who may make justin herbert rethink his decision to stay at oregon.

ok, lewerke has been horrible this year, and they've never gotten their running game going. but they shouldn't need very many points to win this game. they do give up 230 passing yards/game, but that's primarily because teams can't run against them. they only give up 6.2 yards/att, which is 23rd in the country.

huge advantage in the kicking game for sparty. coughlin is a baby-faced assassin, making 16 of 19 fgs, with a long of 49. stack for oregon has only made 6 of 10, with a long of 39.

and, shit, i talked myself into another total....

under (45) 2 units. counting on michigan state's defense to step up. and their offense to not give oregon's defense any points.

 

[Smitty]

Liberty Bowl

Liberty Bowl

missouri (-9) 4 units
over (71.5) 3 units. i really like what missouri's been able to do in the sec, and i think they should easily handle a very inconsistent ok st team. both teams have some good wins, but ok st has some bad losses this year (blowouts against texas tech and kansas st). two of mizzou's four losses were against alabama and georgia.

both teams can sling it all over the field and neither has been good against the pass. one difference defensively is that mizzou is solid against the run, while ok st... not so much.

i think the tigers will be fired up for this one and they'll roll. after the game, mike gundy will be overheard yelling "I'M A MAN!! I'M 51!!"

speaking of 51... let's call the final score 51-34.

 

[Smitty]

Holiday Bowl

Holiday Bowl

nw (+6.5) 3 units
nw 1st H (+4) 2 units
under (43) 2 units. as a fan of both of these coaches, i'm really looking forward to this game, but it ain't gonna be pretty. last i saw, the status of huntley is still up in the air, but i don't think it's going to matter much. they are still missing moss and covey. moss is great, but the loss of covey really slows down this offense. he was the main target, with 60 catches (the next guy has 30).

on the other side of the ball, northwestern is hardly an offensive juggernaut. they average 23.7 points/game, which is 105th in the country. and they're facing a utah defense that only gives up 18.5/game, which is 16th in the country.

should be a great game for fans of kicking. both punts and fgs. help get you in the mood for the rockettes show.

oh, and while i think nw definitely has a shot to win, i'm not playing the ML out of respect for whittingham's bowl record.

 

[Smitty]

Gator Bowl

Gator Bowl

nc st (+7) 2 units
nc st (ML) 1 unit to win 2.5. i'll take a shot with ryan finley against a defense that gives up 263 passing yards/game. and, more telling, they allow 8.5 yards/att. only 12 teams were worse.

 

[Smitty]

how fucking retarded is the virginia tech coaching staff? first of all, they waste a time out because they couldn't decide whether or not to go for it, when clearly they should go for it. and then they run THAT play, when they've been running the ball well all game? wow. someone remind me again why all these idiots get paid a shit ton of money. :facepalm:

 

[Juji-gatame]

Nice call on early game.

 

[Smitty]

Nice call on early game.

thank you. shoulda hit the ML, too. fucking stupid fucking coaches.

 

[Juji-gatame]

thank you. shoulda hit the ML, too. fucking stupid fucking coaches.

Got Missouri at 9 but had to buy down. Good luck. Was pulling for Tech for you:shrug:

 

[Smitty]

Got Missouri at 9 but had to buy down. Good luck. Was pulling for Tech for you:shrug:

thanks, man. shitty start for mizzou.

i swear, there may not be 5 coaches in the country who know what the fuck they're doing. and i'm including head coaches, OC's and DC's.

 

[JOHNNYWAD119]

thanks, man. shitty start for mizzou.

i swear, there may not be 5 coaches in the country who know what the fuck they're doing. and i'm including head coaches, OC's and DC's.

I hear ya. You can include Pitts HC to that list for trying to kick a 55 yard field goal.

 

[JOHNNYWAD119]

Thanks for the plays Smitty

 

[Juji-gatame]

thanks, man. shitty start for mizzou.

i swear, there may not be 5 coaches in the country who know what the fuck they're doing. and i'm including head coaches, OC's and DC's.

Shitty start to second half too:facepalm:

 

[JOHNNYWAD119]

nc st (+7) 2 units
nc st (ML) 1 unit to win 2.5. i'll take a shot with ryan finley against a defense that gives up 263 passing yards/game. and, more telling, they allow 8.5 yards/att. only 12 teams were worse.

Any thoughts on the total for this game? Was thinking over.

 

[Smitty]

Thanks for the plays Smitty

right now, i'm hoping anyone who tailed took the points with pitt and msu. at least i'm nailing those totals!

 

[Smitty]

Any thoughts on the total for this game? Was thinking over.

gun to my head, yeah, i'd probably go over. but i have a nagging hunch that it's not as high-scoring as people think. so i'm staying off it.

 

[JOHNNYWAD119]

Yeah I agree, I'm going to stay away looks like 80% on the over. Thanks for the plays good luck.

 

[ramayada]

gun to my head, yeah, i'd probably go over. but i have a nagging hunch that it's not as high-scoring as people think. so i'm staying off it.

Over is possible
Already 68 need one more score
Thanks for your picks


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