09:40 PM [903] WAS NATIONALS -1.5 -125 ( S STRASBURG -R / A BRADLEY -R )
10:10 PM [905] MIL BREWERS -113 ( J NELSON -R / J COSART -R )
07:10 PM [908] TOTAL u7-119 (KC ROYALS vrs TB RAYS) ( D DUFFY -L / C ARCHER -R )
07:10 PM [910] CLE INDIANS -1.5 -111 ( J BERRIOS -R / D SALAZAR -R )
07:10 PM [916] NY METS +102 ( C SABATHIA -L / L VERRETT -R )
1 unit bet pays 23 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-122, -27.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
Eduardo Rodr?guez's AAA demotion was to fix problems with mechanics and tipping pitches, he returned after it was deemed successful. E-Rod is also is learning to use his slider much more. His results since the fix have produced a pretty decent patch of pitching (compared to before the demotion). I'm just worried going against him we might not be able to assume he's the 'old' E-Rod with all those ugly stats - there might be a rejuvenated 2nd half of the season...
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Duffy hasn't pitched in a loss since June 22, and he's held opponents to three or fewer runs in 10 of his 11 starts over June and July. Dating to May 11, the Royals are 12-3 when Duffy pitches and 11-3 in his starts....KC are 7-19 in their last 26 overall.
Danny Duffy - It's #DuffyVelocityWatch2016 and he registered his second lowest mark of the season last start with a 95.07 mark. Still a full 1 mph higher than his lowest, but he's now had his five lowest average velocities in his last five starts. I'm a little scared guys. I'm a little scared.
KC is 7-3 Duffy's last 10 starts
TB is 2-8 Archer's last 10 starts
Chris Archer still lacks the consistency intrinsic to an ace, so despite elite peripherals, his ranking is greatly influenced by the opponent and venue. Facing the Kansas City Royals checks two of the three relevant boxes as the contest will be in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field with the visitors toting an attack that is well below average....the Rays are sneakily effective versus left-handed slants, and the Royals will be handing the hill to southpaw Danny Duffy, increasing the odds of a win for Archer.
Chris Archer - 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Archer's velocity is trending up and the results are coming with it. He's getting more whiffs on his Slider (10 total this last start alone!) and this may be the time to chase Archer. Obviously there is a major chance he regresses next time out as the velocity dips below 95 mph (it was 95.5 yesterday), but it's starting to look like a good bet to make.
Kansas City Royals +115
The Royals open a series in Tampa on Monday night and the visitors from Kansas City hold some value here. The Royals catch plus money and throw a red hot Danny Duff here. Duffy is 6-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in his last 6 starts overall.
He'll face Chris Archer, who has a lot of distractions to deal with. Archer is at the center of just about every rumor out there, which has to get into his head. He has no idea whether he'll even make this start, with the deadline today.
Some trends to consider. Royals are 6-2 in Duffys last 8 Monday starts. Royals are 15-6 in Duffys last 21 starts during game 1 of a series.
At plus money here, Kansas City is the move. They have the value and with Duffy hot on the mound, Kansas City gets the edge.
Royals vs. Rays
Play: Rays -125
Tampa Bay is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Royals. Kansas City is in a free fall at the moment, as they have lost 8 of their last 9. A big part of their struggles, is their inability to score runs on a consistent basis. The Royals are hitting just .190 as a team over their last 7 games. I know it's been a disappointing season for Tamp Bay's Chris Archer, but this is prime spot for him to dominate. Keep in mind that Archer has looked much better of late with a 3.10 ERA and 0.885 WHIP over his last 3 outings. He's also got a very good 2.95 ERA in 10 home starts.
Yankees vs. Mets
Play: Mets -105
The New York Yankees, losers of four in a row, have essentially packed it in after trading two of their top relievers, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. The Yankees were swept in Tampa Bay and now they face the Mets with C.C. Sabathia, who has given up 31 earned runs and 50 hits in 41 2/3 innings his last seven starts. In two appearances last year against the Mets, Sabathia allowed eight runs and 14 hits in 11 innings. Logan Verrett has had three decent starts in a row allowing seven runs in 18 1/3 innings. Verrett has a 3.29 ERA at home compared to 5.00 on the road. The Yankees have scored a total of eight runs their last four games and they're 28th in the major leagues with a .700 OPS.
Yankees vs. Mets
Pick: Mets
The Mets and Yankees begin a four-game Subway Series tonight at Citi Field. I guess a Mets/Yankees series always creates a certain sense of ?buzz? but the 54-50 Mets hardly look like the defending NL champs and many say the 52-52 Yankees have shelved any postseason hopes with the recent trades of Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miler. However, the Yankees insist they are not giving up on this season. "We needed to have an extreme return for us to complete and finalize," general manager Brian Cashman told reporters. "We're very excited by what we got. But this is very difficult. A lot of tough discussions internally over a player that was very difficult to move."
A check of the standings reveal that the Mets are in third-place in the NL East (6 1/2 games behind the first-place Nats) and open the week 2 1/2 games behind the Marlins in the race for the second National League wild card spot. The Yankees are seven games out in the AL East (in fourth-place), as well as 5 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot with THREE teams ahead of them. The Mets send Logan Verrett (3-6, 4.12 ERA) to the mound up against the Yankees? C.C. Sabathia (6-8, 3.95 ERA). Verrett has never faced the Yankees while Sabathia is 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA in seven career starts against the Mets (teams are 5-2).
Verrett is looking for his first win since earning a win since a scoreless relief appearance against Cincinnati way back on April 26. Just NINE of Verrett?s 27 appearances this season have been starts but note that he has been solid since the All Star break in three starts. He has yet to receive a decision in any of those starts since July 16 but has posted a 3.44 ERA in that span. Taking in all of Verrett?s home appearances (16 appearances, including three starts), he?s 2-3 with a 3.29 ERA (team is 1-2 in his starts).
Sabathia snapped a six-start winless streak in his last outing, holding the the Astros to two runs on four hits over 6.2 innings in a 6-3 win this past Tuesday. However, Sabathia had struggled badly in his previous six starts, allowing at least four ERs in each of them, posting a 7.46 ERA. This marks the first-ever between the two teams in the month of August and my bet says Game 1 goes to the home team.
Yankees at Mets
Pick: Under
The Mets snapped a four game losing streak on Sunday with a win over the Rockies, 6-4. The Mets need wins to keep pace in the NL East and the Wild Card races. Meanwhile, the Yankees bring a four-game losing streak into tonight's contest. The Yankees were swept at Tampa Bay, scoring just seven runs in the process. CC Sabathia starts tonight. The veteran is coming off a good start, allowing just two runs over 6.2 innings. The Mets start Logan Verrett, who is also coming off some very good starts. Verrett has allowed three runs or less in each of his last three starts. This series has been a very good UNDER play, with 19 of the last 26 meetings going UNDER. The Mets are also a very good Under team, posting a 5-16-1 O/U/P mark their last on grass. I like this game UNDER tonight. Neither team is hitting all that well and both pitchers are coming off some very good starts.
Under is 11-2-2 in CHC last 15 overall.
Under is 24-6-1 in CHC last 31 home games.
Toronto +100
I do not agree with the initial move - and this IS with Fister pitching. I get that Fister COULD be high on adrenaline with the whole paternity thing - but he just can't be TOTALLY focused on a baseball, I wouldn't think. Even if he is, Toronto has had some success against him individually - albeit very small sample. Plus, Houston is in that dreaded first-game-back situation that I just don't like. Fister has been somewhat more hittable of late, and his splits show he's been far better on the road than at home. We've tried to fade Stroman once too often. He's more of a ground ball pitcher and that's the type Houston can have trouble against, seeing as how they're a HR hitting/scoring team more often than not. Houston's pen has been suspect lately - Toronto's is, if nothing else, stable. Valbuena is OUT for Houston, while Tulowitzki is questionable. He (Tulowitzki) hasn't done much with Fister, so it's not a deal-breaker if he's out. My only caveat here is that Brett Cecil MIGHT be unavailable having pitched in the last two games - leaving only Franklin Morales as a LHP out of the pen. Toronto is above .500 on the road - and far more effective this season against RHP - so we'll go with it.
Struggling pitchers alter their mechanics all the time. Sometimes the change is effective, other times not so much. Since Eduardo Rodriguez was recalled from Triple-A after working to stop tipping pitches, the results have been encouraging, as he has tossed 17 2/3 frames with 15 whiffs to only six free passes. It should also be noted he's reintroducing the slider to his arsenal with positive results. Starting Rodriguez on the road is a risk, but he'll be in Safeco Field, facing a Seattle Mariners club where he'll hold the platoon edge over the better hitters.
James Paxton is doing a lot of things right with a baseball from the pitcher?s mound. He is throwing strikes with a lot of velocity behind them, getting a lot of swings and misses, and when contact is made almost half of it has been on the ground. Yet his bottom line is only 3-5/4.27 by the most basic of measures, which helps to set up the value for #914 Seattle First Five Innings (10:10 Eastern) tonight, with -115 out there in the early trading (we have room here; consider it good up to -125).
Paxton average fastball is running up there at 97.1 mph, and to best grasp what that means there is no other lefty starter even averaging 94.0. With command of that heat it has meant a 2.3 BB/9, and 49.8 percent of all contact has been on the ground. You win with that but so far Paxton hasn?t, largely because Baseball has not been kind ? a .376 BABIP and a 65.2 LOB%. Normalize those rates with the advanced pitching metrics and it tells a different story, and let?s use those metrics for the head-to-head vs. Eduardo Rodriguez -
FIP xFIP SIERA
Paxton 3.09 3.51 3.74
Rodriguez 6.07 5.32 5.05
Not even close, is it? There is something about Rodriguez that has to be a concern in Boston ? at AAA this season his K% fell from 23.2 in 2015 to 15.6, while BB% rose from 3.7 to 4.6. With the Red Sox K% has gone from 18.8 in 2015 to 17.1, and BB% from 7.1 to 8.5. His bad overall numbers are not a fluke, and perhaps even more alarming is GB% falling from 43.0 to 29.3.
I do not want any part of the late innings here because of the way the Seattle bullpen got stretched out in Wrigley last night, but Paxton over Rodriguez is a solid value fit for the early stages.
Milwaukee -100
Some teams are just plain bad on the road. Milwaukee is one such team, which I acknowledge. Yet I see value on the Brewers, opening as underdogs to the Padres.
Both are in heavy rebuild mode. San Diego's offense is down the recently departed Matt Kemp and Melvin Upton. The Brewers have been without Ryan Braun the past four games due to a sore right side. Yet Milwaukee has won each of those games and is hopeful of getting Braun back for this game.
San Diego has dropped nine of its last 13 games. But what puts me into action here is the Padres being favored in a pitching matchup of Jimmy Nelson against Jarred Cosart.
Nelson is the superior pitcher with a far higher ceiling. He has been up and down this season, but finished July with a 2.83 ERA. He has a 1.83 career mark versus San Diego in three starts. The Brewers should be extra motivated to get Nelson a win after they played their worst game of the season in his last start.
This is Cosart's San Diego debut. He was terrible in four starts with the Marlins this season going 0-1 with a 5.95 ERA. He was sent down to Triple-A where he had a losing record and 4.09 ERA, while averaging just five innings per start.
Put simply, I'm not a fan of Cosart. I also much prefer the Brewers' bullpen over the Padres.
Miami +161 over CHICAGO
Adam Conley drew some buzz from scouts this spring but he?s somewhat fallen off the radar because he hasn?t lived up to the hype but he?s certainly taking steps in the right direction. Conley gets plenty of swings and misses, as seen by his stellar swing and miss rate of 12%. His groundball rate has progressively increased over the past three months. In his last start, Conley had a 47% groundball rate to go along with an 83% first-pitch strike rate. He has 27 K?s over his last 30 innings and he?s 3-0 over his last five starts with an ERA/xERA split of 1.82/3.81.Whether or not Conley thrives here remains to be seen, as anything he throws today, be it good, poor or otherwise would not surprise us one bit. What we know for sure is that the Cubbies are still overpriced daily and these Marlins are dangerous enough to get our attention.
In 19 starts, Kyle Hendricks has 10 pure quality starts. That?s about half. He also has nine wins and seven losses over that span, which is also near 50/50. Hendricks does not possess the raw stuff that others have. That lack of flash hasn't limited his effectiveness but he?s not elite either. Hendricks throws strikes and tries to keep hitters off balance with an assortment of pitches. Sometimes it works and sometimes it does not. Hendricks fastball averages 87 MPH. It remains to be seen if he can sustain top-tier command but Hendricks is a legit starter that every team in baseball would love to have. What he is not is a legit 2.39 ERA pitcher and that ERA will head north as soon as his 27% hit-rate and 81% strand rate inevitably normalizes. Hendricks is good but his ERA combined with the team he plays for has him way overpriced here.
SAN DIEGO +104 over Milwaukee
Jarred Cosart was acquired by the San Diego Padres in the deal for Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea. The Pads continue to acquire prospects that are years from their MLB debut (1B Josh Naylor) or injured (Carter Capps) by dealing from a rotation that had nothing particularly interesting in the way of depth. One-time prospect Cosart is in the rotation immediately. He was coming off five shutout innings in his best MLB game of the season for Miami at the time of the trade but that means little. Cosart had been able to post only a 4.14 ERA with a 30/25 K/BB in 59 IP at Triple-A New Orleans prior to be called up. It may also be worth noting that Cosart had a 62% groundball rate in that last start as well. However, Jarred Cosart is not the bet here.
Who the f**k are the Brewers to be favored on the road with Jimmy Nelson pitching? Nelson does have a 3.42 ERA after 21 starts, which instantly makes us sellers because it is not legit. Nelson is still plagued by shoddy control with 55 walks in 124 frames. Though his strikeout rate is essentially unchanged from 2015, the drop in his swing and miss rate to 7% is worrisome, as it implies downside. Part of this decrease can be attributed to Nelson throwing his best swing-and-miss pitches (slider and four-seamer) less and his sinker more compared to 2015. The issues vs. LHB have persisted but have been obscured due to a fortunate 22% hit rate against them. Luck with hit% (29%) and strand% (80%) has played a major role in his misleading ERA, as evidenced by Nelson?s xERA of 4.96. Don?t be swayed by Nelson?s decent ERA, as he?s a lucky pitcher with nothing but blowup potential ahead.
Hottest team: Brewers (4-0 last four, 6-1 last seven)
The Tigers have won a league-best six straight games but get the day off before opening a series against the White Sox at home, which means surprising Milwaukee will fill this spot. After wrapping up a sweep of Pittsburgh at Miller Park, the team embarked on a seven-game road trip to San Diego and Arizona with personnel matters till very much up in the air. Catcher Jonathan Lucroy blocked a deal to Cleveland over the weekend but may still be moved, while other contenders are sniffing around closer Jeremy Jeffress. Ryan Braun has been dealing with right side tightness and is questionable as well, so be sure to see who will be available if you?re pulling the trigger on the Brewers against the Padres. Jimmy Nelson (6-9, 3.42 ERA) had a 1-3 mark despite a 2.83 ERA in five July outings and has lost six of his last seven decisions. Jarred Cosart (0-1, 5.95), acquired from Miami in the deal for starters Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea, will make his first start for San Diego. He pitched five shutout innings in his first start since April against the Phillies on July 25.
Coldest team: Royals (1-8 last nine)
Fatigue is the latest reason utilized by manager Ned Yost to possibly explain why the defending World Series champs are sputtering entering August. Whatever the case, the fact is Kansas City has dipped to a season-worst six games under .500, ranking 11th out of 15 American League teams. The Royals are 8.5 games behind the Red Sox for the second wild card and own the worst road record in the majors as they open this four-game set at Tampa Bay. Top prospect Brett Eibner was moved to Oakland on Sunday for OF Billy Burns as the Royals seek out a spark with time realistically running out on their ability to turn things around emphatically enough to make a playoff push. The offense has scored three runs or fewer in seven of the last eight games, all losses. Lefty Danny Duffy (6-1, 3.22) has started six consecutive Kansas City wins, earning victories in five straight decisions. Chris Archer (5-14, 4.42), provided he?s still on the roster, will take the ball for the Rays.
Biggest UNDER run: Nationals (5-0 last five, 13-5 last 18)
Strasburg had a 2.08 ERA in July, but gave up more than a single run in only one of his five starts. The OVER had gone 12-2 prior to him landing on the disabled list following his June 15 start against the Cubs. Since then, the UNDER is 3-2. Oddsmakers have set the total tonight at 8 runs as Strasburg squares off against Archie Bradley (4-6, 4.17).
10:10 PM [905] MIL BREWERS -113 ( J NELSON -R / J COSART -R )
07:10 PM [908] TOTAL u7-119 (KC ROYALS vrs TB RAYS) ( D DUFFY -L / C ARCHER -R )
07:10 PM [910] CLE INDIANS -1.5 -111 ( J BERRIOS -R / D SALAZAR -R )
07:10 PM [916] NY METS +102 ( C SABATHIA -L / L VERRETT -R )
1 unit bet pays 23 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-122, -27.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
Eduardo Rodr?guez's AAA demotion was to fix problems with mechanics and tipping pitches, he returned after it was deemed successful. E-Rod is also is learning to use his slider much more. His results since the fix have produced a pretty decent patch of pitching (compared to before the demotion). I'm just worried going against him we might not be able to assume he's the 'old' E-Rod with all those ugly stats - there might be a rejuvenated 2nd half of the season...
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Duffy hasn't pitched in a loss since June 22, and he's held opponents to three or fewer runs in 10 of his 11 starts over June and July. Dating to May 11, the Royals are 12-3 when Duffy pitches and 11-3 in his starts....KC are 7-19 in their last 26 overall.
Danny Duffy - It's #DuffyVelocityWatch2016 and he registered his second lowest mark of the season last start with a 95.07 mark. Still a full 1 mph higher than his lowest, but he's now had his five lowest average velocities in his last five starts. I'm a little scared guys. I'm a little scared.
KC is 7-3 Duffy's last 10 starts
TB is 2-8 Archer's last 10 starts
Chris Archer still lacks the consistency intrinsic to an ace, so despite elite peripherals, his ranking is greatly influenced by the opponent and venue. Facing the Kansas City Royals checks two of the three relevant boxes as the contest will be in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field with the visitors toting an attack that is well below average....the Rays are sneakily effective versus left-handed slants, and the Royals will be handing the hill to southpaw Danny Duffy, increasing the odds of a win for Archer.
Chris Archer - 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Archer's velocity is trending up and the results are coming with it. He's getting more whiffs on his Slider (10 total this last start alone!) and this may be the time to chase Archer. Obviously there is a major chance he regresses next time out as the velocity dips below 95 mph (it was 95.5 yesterday), but it's starting to look like a good bet to make.
Kansas City Royals +115
The Royals open a series in Tampa on Monday night and the visitors from Kansas City hold some value here. The Royals catch plus money and throw a red hot Danny Duff here. Duffy is 6-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in his last 6 starts overall.
He'll face Chris Archer, who has a lot of distractions to deal with. Archer is at the center of just about every rumor out there, which has to get into his head. He has no idea whether he'll even make this start, with the deadline today.
Some trends to consider. Royals are 6-2 in Duffys last 8 Monday starts. Royals are 15-6 in Duffys last 21 starts during game 1 of a series.
At plus money here, Kansas City is the move. They have the value and with Duffy hot on the mound, Kansas City gets the edge.
Royals vs. Rays
Play: Rays -125
Tampa Bay is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Royals. Kansas City is in a free fall at the moment, as they have lost 8 of their last 9. A big part of their struggles, is their inability to score runs on a consistent basis. The Royals are hitting just .190 as a team over their last 7 games. I know it's been a disappointing season for Tamp Bay's Chris Archer, but this is prime spot for him to dominate. Keep in mind that Archer has looked much better of late with a 3.10 ERA and 0.885 WHIP over his last 3 outings. He's also got a very good 2.95 ERA in 10 home starts.
Yankees vs. Mets
Play: Mets -105
The New York Yankees, losers of four in a row, have essentially packed it in after trading two of their top relievers, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. The Yankees were swept in Tampa Bay and now they face the Mets with C.C. Sabathia, who has given up 31 earned runs and 50 hits in 41 2/3 innings his last seven starts. In two appearances last year against the Mets, Sabathia allowed eight runs and 14 hits in 11 innings. Logan Verrett has had three decent starts in a row allowing seven runs in 18 1/3 innings. Verrett has a 3.29 ERA at home compared to 5.00 on the road. The Yankees have scored a total of eight runs their last four games and they're 28th in the major leagues with a .700 OPS.
Yankees vs. Mets
Pick: Mets
The Mets and Yankees begin a four-game Subway Series tonight at Citi Field. I guess a Mets/Yankees series always creates a certain sense of ?buzz? but the 54-50 Mets hardly look like the defending NL champs and many say the 52-52 Yankees have shelved any postseason hopes with the recent trades of Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miler. However, the Yankees insist they are not giving up on this season. "We needed to have an extreme return for us to complete and finalize," general manager Brian Cashman told reporters. "We're very excited by what we got. But this is very difficult. A lot of tough discussions internally over a player that was very difficult to move."
A check of the standings reveal that the Mets are in third-place in the NL East (6 1/2 games behind the first-place Nats) and open the week 2 1/2 games behind the Marlins in the race for the second National League wild card spot. The Yankees are seven games out in the AL East (in fourth-place), as well as 5 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot with THREE teams ahead of them. The Mets send Logan Verrett (3-6, 4.12 ERA) to the mound up against the Yankees? C.C. Sabathia (6-8, 3.95 ERA). Verrett has never faced the Yankees while Sabathia is 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA in seven career starts against the Mets (teams are 5-2).
Verrett is looking for his first win since earning a win since a scoreless relief appearance against Cincinnati way back on April 26. Just NINE of Verrett?s 27 appearances this season have been starts but note that he has been solid since the All Star break in three starts. He has yet to receive a decision in any of those starts since July 16 but has posted a 3.44 ERA in that span. Taking in all of Verrett?s home appearances (16 appearances, including three starts), he?s 2-3 with a 3.29 ERA (team is 1-2 in his starts).
Sabathia snapped a six-start winless streak in his last outing, holding the the Astros to two runs on four hits over 6.2 innings in a 6-3 win this past Tuesday. However, Sabathia had struggled badly in his previous six starts, allowing at least four ERs in each of them, posting a 7.46 ERA. This marks the first-ever between the two teams in the month of August and my bet says Game 1 goes to the home team.
Yankees at Mets
Pick: Under
The Mets snapped a four game losing streak on Sunday with a win over the Rockies, 6-4. The Mets need wins to keep pace in the NL East and the Wild Card races. Meanwhile, the Yankees bring a four-game losing streak into tonight's contest. The Yankees were swept at Tampa Bay, scoring just seven runs in the process. CC Sabathia starts tonight. The veteran is coming off a good start, allowing just two runs over 6.2 innings. The Mets start Logan Verrett, who is also coming off some very good starts. Verrett has allowed three runs or less in each of his last three starts. This series has been a very good UNDER play, with 19 of the last 26 meetings going UNDER. The Mets are also a very good Under team, posting a 5-16-1 O/U/P mark their last on grass. I like this game UNDER tonight. Neither team is hitting all that well and both pitchers are coming off some very good starts.
Under is 11-2-2 in CHC last 15 overall.
Under is 24-6-1 in CHC last 31 home games.
Toronto +100
I do not agree with the initial move - and this IS with Fister pitching. I get that Fister COULD be high on adrenaline with the whole paternity thing - but he just can't be TOTALLY focused on a baseball, I wouldn't think. Even if he is, Toronto has had some success against him individually - albeit very small sample. Plus, Houston is in that dreaded first-game-back situation that I just don't like. Fister has been somewhat more hittable of late, and his splits show he's been far better on the road than at home. We've tried to fade Stroman once too often. He's more of a ground ball pitcher and that's the type Houston can have trouble against, seeing as how they're a HR hitting/scoring team more often than not. Houston's pen has been suspect lately - Toronto's is, if nothing else, stable. Valbuena is OUT for Houston, while Tulowitzki is questionable. He (Tulowitzki) hasn't done much with Fister, so it's not a deal-breaker if he's out. My only caveat here is that Brett Cecil MIGHT be unavailable having pitched in the last two games - leaving only Franklin Morales as a LHP out of the pen. Toronto is above .500 on the road - and far more effective this season against RHP - so we'll go with it.
Struggling pitchers alter their mechanics all the time. Sometimes the change is effective, other times not so much. Since Eduardo Rodriguez was recalled from Triple-A after working to stop tipping pitches, the results have been encouraging, as he has tossed 17 2/3 frames with 15 whiffs to only six free passes. It should also be noted he's reintroducing the slider to his arsenal with positive results. Starting Rodriguez on the road is a risk, but he'll be in Safeco Field, facing a Seattle Mariners club where he'll hold the platoon edge over the better hitters.
James Paxton is doing a lot of things right with a baseball from the pitcher?s mound. He is throwing strikes with a lot of velocity behind them, getting a lot of swings and misses, and when contact is made almost half of it has been on the ground. Yet his bottom line is only 3-5/4.27 by the most basic of measures, which helps to set up the value for #914 Seattle First Five Innings (10:10 Eastern) tonight, with -115 out there in the early trading (we have room here; consider it good up to -125).
Paxton average fastball is running up there at 97.1 mph, and to best grasp what that means there is no other lefty starter even averaging 94.0. With command of that heat it has meant a 2.3 BB/9, and 49.8 percent of all contact has been on the ground. You win with that but so far Paxton hasn?t, largely because Baseball has not been kind ? a .376 BABIP and a 65.2 LOB%. Normalize those rates with the advanced pitching metrics and it tells a different story, and let?s use those metrics for the head-to-head vs. Eduardo Rodriguez -
FIP xFIP SIERA
Paxton 3.09 3.51 3.74
Rodriguez 6.07 5.32 5.05
Not even close, is it? There is something about Rodriguez that has to be a concern in Boston ? at AAA this season his K% fell from 23.2 in 2015 to 15.6, while BB% rose from 3.7 to 4.6. With the Red Sox K% has gone from 18.8 in 2015 to 17.1, and BB% from 7.1 to 8.5. His bad overall numbers are not a fluke, and perhaps even more alarming is GB% falling from 43.0 to 29.3.
I do not want any part of the late innings here because of the way the Seattle bullpen got stretched out in Wrigley last night, but Paxton over Rodriguez is a solid value fit for the early stages.
Milwaukee -100
Some teams are just plain bad on the road. Milwaukee is one such team, which I acknowledge. Yet I see value on the Brewers, opening as underdogs to the Padres.
Both are in heavy rebuild mode. San Diego's offense is down the recently departed Matt Kemp and Melvin Upton. The Brewers have been without Ryan Braun the past four games due to a sore right side. Yet Milwaukee has won each of those games and is hopeful of getting Braun back for this game.
San Diego has dropped nine of its last 13 games. But what puts me into action here is the Padres being favored in a pitching matchup of Jimmy Nelson against Jarred Cosart.
Nelson is the superior pitcher with a far higher ceiling. He has been up and down this season, but finished July with a 2.83 ERA. He has a 1.83 career mark versus San Diego in three starts. The Brewers should be extra motivated to get Nelson a win after they played their worst game of the season in his last start.
This is Cosart's San Diego debut. He was terrible in four starts with the Marlins this season going 0-1 with a 5.95 ERA. He was sent down to Triple-A where he had a losing record and 4.09 ERA, while averaging just five innings per start.
Put simply, I'm not a fan of Cosart. I also much prefer the Brewers' bullpen over the Padres.
Miami +161 over CHICAGO
Adam Conley drew some buzz from scouts this spring but he?s somewhat fallen off the radar because he hasn?t lived up to the hype but he?s certainly taking steps in the right direction. Conley gets plenty of swings and misses, as seen by his stellar swing and miss rate of 12%. His groundball rate has progressively increased over the past three months. In his last start, Conley had a 47% groundball rate to go along with an 83% first-pitch strike rate. He has 27 K?s over his last 30 innings and he?s 3-0 over his last five starts with an ERA/xERA split of 1.82/3.81.Whether or not Conley thrives here remains to be seen, as anything he throws today, be it good, poor or otherwise would not surprise us one bit. What we know for sure is that the Cubbies are still overpriced daily and these Marlins are dangerous enough to get our attention.
In 19 starts, Kyle Hendricks has 10 pure quality starts. That?s about half. He also has nine wins and seven losses over that span, which is also near 50/50. Hendricks does not possess the raw stuff that others have. That lack of flash hasn't limited his effectiveness but he?s not elite either. Hendricks throws strikes and tries to keep hitters off balance with an assortment of pitches. Sometimes it works and sometimes it does not. Hendricks fastball averages 87 MPH. It remains to be seen if he can sustain top-tier command but Hendricks is a legit starter that every team in baseball would love to have. What he is not is a legit 2.39 ERA pitcher and that ERA will head north as soon as his 27% hit-rate and 81% strand rate inevitably normalizes. Hendricks is good but his ERA combined with the team he plays for has him way overpriced here.
SAN DIEGO +104 over Milwaukee
Jarred Cosart was acquired by the San Diego Padres in the deal for Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea. The Pads continue to acquire prospects that are years from their MLB debut (1B Josh Naylor) or injured (Carter Capps) by dealing from a rotation that had nothing particularly interesting in the way of depth. One-time prospect Cosart is in the rotation immediately. He was coming off five shutout innings in his best MLB game of the season for Miami at the time of the trade but that means little. Cosart had been able to post only a 4.14 ERA with a 30/25 K/BB in 59 IP at Triple-A New Orleans prior to be called up. It may also be worth noting that Cosart had a 62% groundball rate in that last start as well. However, Jarred Cosart is not the bet here.
Who the f**k are the Brewers to be favored on the road with Jimmy Nelson pitching? Nelson does have a 3.42 ERA after 21 starts, which instantly makes us sellers because it is not legit. Nelson is still plagued by shoddy control with 55 walks in 124 frames. Though his strikeout rate is essentially unchanged from 2015, the drop in his swing and miss rate to 7% is worrisome, as it implies downside. Part of this decrease can be attributed to Nelson throwing his best swing-and-miss pitches (slider and four-seamer) less and his sinker more compared to 2015. The issues vs. LHB have persisted but have been obscured due to a fortunate 22% hit rate against them. Luck with hit% (29%) and strand% (80%) has played a major role in his misleading ERA, as evidenced by Nelson?s xERA of 4.96. Don?t be swayed by Nelson?s decent ERA, as he?s a lucky pitcher with nothing but blowup potential ahead.
Hottest team: Brewers (4-0 last four, 6-1 last seven)
The Tigers have won a league-best six straight games but get the day off before opening a series against the White Sox at home, which means surprising Milwaukee will fill this spot. After wrapping up a sweep of Pittsburgh at Miller Park, the team embarked on a seven-game road trip to San Diego and Arizona with personnel matters till very much up in the air. Catcher Jonathan Lucroy blocked a deal to Cleveland over the weekend but may still be moved, while other contenders are sniffing around closer Jeremy Jeffress. Ryan Braun has been dealing with right side tightness and is questionable as well, so be sure to see who will be available if you?re pulling the trigger on the Brewers against the Padres. Jimmy Nelson (6-9, 3.42 ERA) had a 1-3 mark despite a 2.83 ERA in five July outings and has lost six of his last seven decisions. Jarred Cosart (0-1, 5.95), acquired from Miami in the deal for starters Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea, will make his first start for San Diego. He pitched five shutout innings in his first start since April against the Phillies on July 25.
Coldest team: Royals (1-8 last nine)
Fatigue is the latest reason utilized by manager Ned Yost to possibly explain why the defending World Series champs are sputtering entering August. Whatever the case, the fact is Kansas City has dipped to a season-worst six games under .500, ranking 11th out of 15 American League teams. The Royals are 8.5 games behind the Red Sox for the second wild card and own the worst road record in the majors as they open this four-game set at Tampa Bay. Top prospect Brett Eibner was moved to Oakland on Sunday for OF Billy Burns as the Royals seek out a spark with time realistically running out on their ability to turn things around emphatically enough to make a playoff push. The offense has scored three runs or fewer in seven of the last eight games, all losses. Lefty Danny Duffy (6-1, 3.22) has started six consecutive Kansas City wins, earning victories in five straight decisions. Chris Archer (5-14, 4.42), provided he?s still on the roster, will take the ball for the Rays.
Biggest UNDER run: Nationals (5-0 last five, 13-5 last 18)
Strasburg had a 2.08 ERA in July, but gave up more than a single run in only one of his five starts. The OVER had gone 12-2 prior to him landing on the disabled list following his June 15 start against the Cubs. Since then, the UNDER is 3-2. Oddsmakers have set the total tonight at 8 runs as Strasburg squares off against Archie Bradley (4-6, 4.17).
