07:10 PM [952] MIA MARLINS -150 ( J CUETO -R / J FERNANDEZ -R )
08:15 PM [955] TOTAL o8.5 -120 (CIN REDS vrs STL CARDINALS) ( C REED -L / M WACHA -R )
10:10 PM [957] TOTAL o8-105 (PHI PHILLIES vrs LA DODGERS) ( Z EFLIN -R / J URIAS -L )
08:10 PM [961] TOTAL o9-105 (HOU ASTROS vrs MIN TWINS) ( C MCHUGH -R / T DUFFEY -R )
10:05 PM [963] BAL ORIOLES -145 ( K GAUSMAN -R / K GRAVEMAN -R )
10:10 PM [965] DET TIGERS +110 ( M FULMER -R / H IWAKUMA -R )
1 unit bet pays 40 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-129, -34.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
don't usually like taking an under at Coors, but I see Hamels has been better on road, excellent of late, and his last 4 appearances at Coors kept it to ER 3 or under in each start! Current Rockies lineup batting .191 vs him in 94 at bats....just worried those TX batters, not great of late, might just break out as they absolutely been pounding lefties all season....so maybe TX instead of the under?
yep, liking that over at STL and taking yet another Twins over....also over at LAD as one of these starters and/or one of these offenses have a darn good chance to give up the over all by themselves, and the LAD bullpen pretty gassed now....Phillies TT Over 3 looks good too...
Detroit because the team is on a roll and are babying Fullmer to keep him fresh, who also has incorporated a nifty changeup of late to keep him ahead of scouting reports and expectations.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
R.A. Dickey, who has gone 8-13 with a 4.49 ERA in 23 starts this year, including 1-2 with a 7.47 ERA in his last three starts and 2-8 with a 5.40 ERA in 12 starts here at home...Toronto offense that has not been at it?s best at home this year, while overall they have averaged just 3.70 rpg in their last 10 games.
Davies hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last five outings, posting a 1.97 ERA with 21 strikeouts and six walks in 32 innings during that stretch.
rookie right-hander Rob Whalen, will go for his first career victory. He made his major league debut Aug. 3, allowing four runs on four hits -- including a home run -- and four walks with five strikeouts over five innings of work, but didn't take a decision in Atlanta's 8-4 victory over the Pirates.
He allowed all four runs in the first inning, but settled in quickly after that.
"Obviously the game didn't start how either of us hoped it would, but the end result was exactly what we were looking for," said Braves catcher Anthony Recker. "He did a great job getting through that first inning and then just bearing down and making pitches after that.
"I just told him we were still behind him and we were going to come back and win the game, just keep pitching your butt off and we got ya. And he did that."
Whalen was having a strong year in Atlanta's minor league system, going a combined 7-6 with a 2.40 ERA for Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Gwinnett, where he made three starts and allowed just four runs in 18 2/3 innings of work while striking out 18.
But there's no denying that the Cardinals have mostly missed a prime chance to bank some wins in the last week. In the first six games of a nine-game stretch against Cincinnati and Atlanta, two of the NL's three last-place teams, St. Louis went 2-4.
----------
Under is 35-15-2 in HOU last 52 overall.
Over is 46-19-3 in MIN last 68 overall.
McHugh has been very consistent as of late, allowing three earned runs or less in eight out of his last nine starts
Seeking his first Major League win, Reed has allowed first-inning runs in five of his eight starts, including four against St. Louis in his last outing. Of the 33 earned runs he?s allowed in 40 2/3 innings, 13 have come in the first.
Wacha will be facing the Reds for a second consecutive start. He struggled to find his fastball command early in his last one and lasted only five innings, allowing two runs on six hits. Still, Wacha has won his last five decisions.
Left-hander Cole Hamels, who is 12-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 22 starts, He has the lowest road ERA in the AL, 1.90 ERA, and he has an 8-2 record away from Arlington.
Hamels is 4-4 with a 3.21 ERA in 10 career starts against the Rockies, including 2-2 with a 3.94 ERA in five starts at Coors Field.
Cole Hamels - 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. That walk rate is creeping up again and it's a bit frustrating, especially against the O's who like their walks like they like their spins of a Fred Durst record - never. I stand by the fact that he's still very good and suppressing hard contact and inducing weak contact, which should lead him to outperform his FIP/xFIP, though a regression to a 3.40 ERA or so wouldn't shock me. Just fix dem walks fella.
Rangers vs. Rockies
Play: Rangers -115
The Texas Rangers and the Colorado Rockies will do battle in the opener of a four-game home-and-home series Monday night. The AL West-leading Rangers have won seven of their last 10, and I like them to keep that momentum going here in the Rocky Mountains.
Cole Hamels (12-3, 2.89 ERA) takes the ball for Texas. He's 4-4 lifetime with a 3.21 ERA against the Rockies, but he has their current members limited to a combined .184 batting average over 98 at bats. We can also note that Colorado is 1-7 in its last eight interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Colorado turns to another left-hander in Tyler Anderson (4-3, 3.25). The 26 year old rookie has logged three straight quality starts (against Dodgers, Mets and Braves), but the Rangers' bats he'll see tonight will be something else as Texas is batting a major leagues-best .281 against southpaws this season and 7-3 in its last 10 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Rangers are 16-3 in Hamels' last 19 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and I think we're getting a great price on the better team with their ace on the mound tonight.
Rangers vs. Rockies
Play: Under 10?
Typically I don't want anything to do with the UNDER in Coors Field, but this is a rare situation where the total is simply too high to pass up. We have two starters facing off that are more than capable of keeping this a much lower scoring game than the oddsmakers expect.
Texas will send out Cole Hamels, who is 12-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.254 WHIP in 22 starts. He's been at his best on the road, where he's 8-2 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 12 starts. Hamels struggled in his first outing at Colorado way back in 2009, but has been dominant at Coors Field since. In his 4 starts since his debut here, he's allowed just 7 runs in 28 1/3 innings over 4 starts. Allowing 3 earned runs or less in each outing.
Colorado counters with Tyler Anderson, who has pitched effectively in his 10 starts this season, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.262 WHIP. That's even more impressive when you consider 7 of his 10 starts have come at Coors Field. He'll have a slight advantage here with this being the first time he's faced Texas, plus the Rangers are struggling a bit here at the plate. Texas is averaging just 3.0 runs/game and hitting a mere .253 as a team over their last 7 games.
UNDER is 7-1-2 in the Rangers last 10 interleague games, 12-3-1 in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 15-5 in their last 20 when they come in with a bullpen WHIP of 1.250 or less in their last 15 games. UNDER is also 5-0-1 in the Rockies last 6 during Game 1 of a series, 5-1-1 in their last 7 interleague games and 19-9 in their last 28 games in the 2nd half of the season against a team that averages 7 or more strikeouts/game.
Tigers vs. Mariners
Play: Tigers -101
Hisashi Iwakuma is 12-7 with a 3.99 ERA and has been effective against most teams, but Detroit is not one of them. The Tigers scored five runs with 11 hits in 4 2/3 innings earlier this season against him and last year Iwakuma gave up seven runs and 14 hits in 12 innings against Detroit. Six players on the Tigers roster have at least a .375 batting average against the right-hander. Michael Fulmer continues his terrific rookie season and the Tigers have won his last seven starts, including a 2-1 win over the White Sox on Wednesday when he allowed just one run and five hits in 6 2/3 innings. Fulmer faced the Mariners once this season and gave up a run and three hits in 4 1/3 innings. Detroit lost to the Mets yesterday but the Tigers still have won 10 of their last 12 games and are just two games behind first-place Cleveland in AL Central.
Tampa Bay +131 over TORONTO
Jake Odorizzi is one of the hottest pitchers in the majors right now with four walks issued, 27 K?s and a 1.71 ERA over his last 32 frames covering five starts. It gets better too. In his last start, Odorizzi?s groundball rate was 50%. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts was 15%, which is up five percentage points from his overall swing and miss rate of 10%. Before he had spent much time in the majors, minor league analysts projected that Odorizzi would mature into a reliable and very effective starter. Now 26 years old and in the middle of his third full season, that may be coming into fruition. Furthermore, Odorizzi owns current Blue Jays? hitters. In 134 career AB?s against Odorizzi, current Jays have a mere 20 hits (.149 BA). That?s when the Jays were seeing beach balls. Right now, Toronto is seeing BB gun pellets with a .207 team batting average over the past 20 games, which ranks dead last in MLB over that span.
One can never rely on a knuckleball pitcher because the risk is too high when spotting a tag. That risk becomes even greater when applied to Toronto?s R.A Dickey. At home, Toronto has won just two of Dickey?s last 14 starts. This year at the Rogers Center, Dickey is 2-8 with an ERA of 5.40 over 71.2 innings. What?s even more disturbing is that Dickey has been tagged for 15 jacks in those aforementioned home innings.
This is the time of year that also-rans begin to enjoy the spoiler role. These two are longtime rivals and the Rays would love nothing more than to come in here and make life miserable for the Blue Jays. Tampa has always competed well against Toronto and in fact, the Rays came in here in May and beat the Blue Jays, 6-3, 12-2 and 13-2 in a three-game sweep. Now they?ll come in relaxed with no pressure whatsoever while the Blue Jays continue to squeeze their bats tight.
Cincinnati +174 over ST. LOUIS
The price here on the Cardinals is just plain stupid. The Cardinals are playing foolish baseball by committing too many errors, not moving runners over and leaving pitchers in there too long. Their relievers have been a complete disaster too. They?ll now look to Michael Wacha to turn things around and while it could happen, he and the Cardinals are way overpriced for us to ignore the dog in this one. Wacha has a 1.40 WHIP after 126 innings, which is above our 1.30 threshold for acceptability. In other words, he?s pitching with too much traffic on the bases almost every single game. In his last start, Wacha walked one and struck out three in five innings. His first-pitch strike rate over his last six games is only 57%, which suggests he could be running out of gas. For the most part, Wacha?s season has been a decent one for sure. However, Wacha's xERA of 4.11 isn't anything to get excited about. He hit a wall at the end of last year with an ERA of 7.37 in last six starts and he had serious shoulder issues late in 2014. Backed by solid control, a groundball tilt, and respectable swing and miss stuff, there's a lot to like about Wacha at the age of 25. Thing is, he?s a late season big risk, especially with the signs of fatigue setting in.
We?ve backed Cody Reed a few times this season without much success but we?re not about to give up on this talented starter. Reed has wicked stuff without the results and while said results are ugly on paper (7.30 ERA) it?s all been fueled by some rotten luck. The beautiful thing is that Reed?s surface ERA after eight starts gets us a hugely inflated number here. First off, Reed has 38 K?s in 41 innings, which comes with the full support of his 12% swing and miss rate. He averages 93 MPH on the gun and is often at 95 MPH. In his last start, Reed?s groundball rate was 70%. His overall groundball rate is in the upper echelon of starters at 57% and 63% over his past four starts. Reed?s low strand rate of 65% and high hr/f rate of 31% have combined to torpedo his surface stats. That hr/f rate is actually a sick number that is working against him. More bad luck can be seen in Reed?s BABIP, which is at .367. Typically, balls in play will find holes or drop in three out of every 10 at bats, which explain a hitter that bats .300 every year. Said hitter will ALWAYS put the ball in play and that?s the reason for his consistent BA. Well, the same numbers apply to pitchers too. League average for BABIP is .297, which gives us an idea of just how unlucky Reed has been. This kid has nasty stuff and once his metrics normalize, the wins will follow. At this price against the reeling Cardinals, this is a wager worth making.
Atlanta +141 over MILWAUKEE
Robert Whalen makes just the second start of his MLB career. Whalen was tagged for four runs in the first inning of his first start against Pittsburgh but settled down and did not allow another run over the next four frames. He ended up going five full and allowing four runs for an ERA of 7.20, which looks ugly on paper but does not tell the full story. Whalen began the season in Double-A before getting the call to Triple-A in mid-July. Despite struggling with the injury bug in recent seasons, he?s been fully healthy in 2016. When healthy, he is a command/control starter with average stuff. He consistently throws good strikes to all quadrants of the strike zone with all three offerings. Whalen?s fastball mostly sits in the low-90s, but he exhibits a lot of deception with his throwing motion and arm slot. Additionally, the sinking action on his fastball makes it difficult to elevate. His other pitches include a curveball that serves as his putaway pitch and a solid-average change-up. There is no question that Whalen bring risk but this is simply a scouting report on the guy and has very little to do with our decision to back the Braves. This one is all about the fade.
Not interested in Milwaukee as a big favorite and certainly not interested in Zach Davies as a big favorite either. The Brewers are coming off a six-game trip to San Diego and Arizona where they won once in both cities. The opposition scored 39 times on the Crew in those six games. Davies' stock is high because he has won three games in a row while posting a 2.45 ERA over that stretch but the skills do not support the results. Davies' swing and miss rate in his last start was 4%. He averages 89 MPH on the gun and relies heavily on a change that he throws 20% of the time. He?s decreased the usage of both his cutter and curve so that he?s mostly throwing fastballs and changeups and when he?s inside the zone on those, players are making contact 90.1% of the time. Zack Davies is on quite a roll with an ERA of 1.78 over his last five starts. That?s the same ERA that James Shields had over a recent five-game stretch, which once again proves that pitchers can get very lucky (or unlucky) over an extended period of time. Davies xERA over his last five starts is 4.03 with the fact remaining that excels at nothing. He has a repeatable delivery and induces a fair amount of groundballs but he is average at best and never will be anything more. Davies has far more appeal as a dog.
The Braves pick up Matt Kemp at the trade deadline and subsequently score five runs or more in four of their past five games while winning all four. Against the Cardinals on the weekend, Atlanta scored 13 and six runs respectively on Saturday and Sunday. Feeling good and having fun, these enthusiastic Braves have a great chance to keep it going against here.
Biggest UNDER run: Rangers (0-7-1 past eight)
The 'under' is 0-6-1 in the past seven road games for the Texas Rangers. That streak will be put to the test in a road series in Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies. The 'under' is also 5-0-1 in their past six interleague road games, and 12-3-1 in their past 16 road games against a team with a winning home record. For Colorado, the 'under' is 5-1-1 in their past seven interleague affairs, and 14-6 in their past 20 against teams with an overall winning record.
Biggest OVER run: Twins (9-0 past nine)
The Twins offense has been doing the job at the dish lately, posting five or more runs in seven of their past nine outings and 10 of the past 14 contests. The 'over' is also 6-0-2 in Tyler Duffey's past eight home starts, and 10-1-3 in his past 14 assignments overall. The 'over' is also 3-0-1 in the past four head-to-head meetings between these clubs, and 3-0-1 in Collin McHugh's past four starts against Minnesota.
08:15 PM [955] TOTAL o8.5 -120 (CIN REDS vrs STL CARDINALS) ( C REED -L / M WACHA -R )
10:10 PM [957] TOTAL o8-105 (PHI PHILLIES vrs LA DODGERS) ( Z EFLIN -R / J URIAS -L )
08:10 PM [961] TOTAL o9-105 (HOU ASTROS vrs MIN TWINS) ( C MCHUGH -R / T DUFFEY -R )
10:05 PM [963] BAL ORIOLES -145 ( K GAUSMAN -R / K GRAVEMAN -R )
10:10 PM [965] DET TIGERS +110 ( M FULMER -R / H IWAKUMA -R )
1 unit bet pays 40 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-129, -34.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
don't usually like taking an under at Coors, but I see Hamels has been better on road, excellent of late, and his last 4 appearances at Coors kept it to ER 3 or under in each start! Current Rockies lineup batting .191 vs him in 94 at bats....just worried those TX batters, not great of late, might just break out as they absolutely been pounding lefties all season....so maybe TX instead of the under?
yep, liking that over at STL and taking yet another Twins over....also over at LAD as one of these starters and/or one of these offenses have a darn good chance to give up the over all by themselves, and the LAD bullpen pretty gassed now....Phillies TT Over 3 looks good too...
Detroit because the team is on a roll and are babying Fullmer to keep him fresh, who also has incorporated a nifty changeup of late to keep him ahead of scouting reports and expectations.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
R.A. Dickey, who has gone 8-13 with a 4.49 ERA in 23 starts this year, including 1-2 with a 7.47 ERA in his last three starts and 2-8 with a 5.40 ERA in 12 starts here at home...Toronto offense that has not been at it?s best at home this year, while overall they have averaged just 3.70 rpg in their last 10 games.
Davies hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last five outings, posting a 1.97 ERA with 21 strikeouts and six walks in 32 innings during that stretch.
rookie right-hander Rob Whalen, will go for his first career victory. He made his major league debut Aug. 3, allowing four runs on four hits -- including a home run -- and four walks with five strikeouts over five innings of work, but didn't take a decision in Atlanta's 8-4 victory over the Pirates.
He allowed all four runs in the first inning, but settled in quickly after that.
"Obviously the game didn't start how either of us hoped it would, but the end result was exactly what we were looking for," said Braves catcher Anthony Recker. "He did a great job getting through that first inning and then just bearing down and making pitches after that.
"I just told him we were still behind him and we were going to come back and win the game, just keep pitching your butt off and we got ya. And he did that."
Whalen was having a strong year in Atlanta's minor league system, going a combined 7-6 with a 2.40 ERA for Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Gwinnett, where he made three starts and allowed just four runs in 18 2/3 innings of work while striking out 18.
But there's no denying that the Cardinals have mostly missed a prime chance to bank some wins in the last week. In the first six games of a nine-game stretch against Cincinnati and Atlanta, two of the NL's three last-place teams, St. Louis went 2-4.
----------
Under is 35-15-2 in HOU last 52 overall.
Over is 46-19-3 in MIN last 68 overall.
McHugh has been very consistent as of late, allowing three earned runs or less in eight out of his last nine starts
Seeking his first Major League win, Reed has allowed first-inning runs in five of his eight starts, including four against St. Louis in his last outing. Of the 33 earned runs he?s allowed in 40 2/3 innings, 13 have come in the first.
Wacha will be facing the Reds for a second consecutive start. He struggled to find his fastball command early in his last one and lasted only five innings, allowing two runs on six hits. Still, Wacha has won his last five decisions.
Left-hander Cole Hamels, who is 12-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 22 starts, He has the lowest road ERA in the AL, 1.90 ERA, and he has an 8-2 record away from Arlington.
Hamels is 4-4 with a 3.21 ERA in 10 career starts against the Rockies, including 2-2 with a 3.94 ERA in five starts at Coors Field.
Cole Hamels - 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. That walk rate is creeping up again and it's a bit frustrating, especially against the O's who like their walks like they like their spins of a Fred Durst record - never. I stand by the fact that he's still very good and suppressing hard contact and inducing weak contact, which should lead him to outperform his FIP/xFIP, though a regression to a 3.40 ERA or so wouldn't shock me. Just fix dem walks fella.
Rangers vs. Rockies
Play: Rangers -115
The Texas Rangers and the Colorado Rockies will do battle in the opener of a four-game home-and-home series Monday night. The AL West-leading Rangers have won seven of their last 10, and I like them to keep that momentum going here in the Rocky Mountains.
Cole Hamels (12-3, 2.89 ERA) takes the ball for Texas. He's 4-4 lifetime with a 3.21 ERA against the Rockies, but he has their current members limited to a combined .184 batting average over 98 at bats. We can also note that Colorado is 1-7 in its last eight interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Colorado turns to another left-hander in Tyler Anderson (4-3, 3.25). The 26 year old rookie has logged three straight quality starts (against Dodgers, Mets and Braves), but the Rangers' bats he'll see tonight will be something else as Texas is batting a major leagues-best .281 against southpaws this season and 7-3 in its last 10 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Rangers are 16-3 in Hamels' last 19 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and I think we're getting a great price on the better team with their ace on the mound tonight.
Rangers vs. Rockies
Play: Under 10?
Typically I don't want anything to do with the UNDER in Coors Field, but this is a rare situation where the total is simply too high to pass up. We have two starters facing off that are more than capable of keeping this a much lower scoring game than the oddsmakers expect.
Texas will send out Cole Hamels, who is 12-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.254 WHIP in 22 starts. He's been at his best on the road, where he's 8-2 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 12 starts. Hamels struggled in his first outing at Colorado way back in 2009, but has been dominant at Coors Field since. In his 4 starts since his debut here, he's allowed just 7 runs in 28 1/3 innings over 4 starts. Allowing 3 earned runs or less in each outing.
Colorado counters with Tyler Anderson, who has pitched effectively in his 10 starts this season, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.262 WHIP. That's even more impressive when you consider 7 of his 10 starts have come at Coors Field. He'll have a slight advantage here with this being the first time he's faced Texas, plus the Rangers are struggling a bit here at the plate. Texas is averaging just 3.0 runs/game and hitting a mere .253 as a team over their last 7 games.
UNDER is 7-1-2 in the Rangers last 10 interleague games, 12-3-1 in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 15-5 in their last 20 when they come in with a bullpen WHIP of 1.250 or less in their last 15 games. UNDER is also 5-0-1 in the Rockies last 6 during Game 1 of a series, 5-1-1 in their last 7 interleague games and 19-9 in their last 28 games in the 2nd half of the season against a team that averages 7 or more strikeouts/game.
Tigers vs. Mariners
Play: Tigers -101
Hisashi Iwakuma is 12-7 with a 3.99 ERA and has been effective against most teams, but Detroit is not one of them. The Tigers scored five runs with 11 hits in 4 2/3 innings earlier this season against him and last year Iwakuma gave up seven runs and 14 hits in 12 innings against Detroit. Six players on the Tigers roster have at least a .375 batting average against the right-hander. Michael Fulmer continues his terrific rookie season and the Tigers have won his last seven starts, including a 2-1 win over the White Sox on Wednesday when he allowed just one run and five hits in 6 2/3 innings. Fulmer faced the Mariners once this season and gave up a run and three hits in 4 1/3 innings. Detroit lost to the Mets yesterday but the Tigers still have won 10 of their last 12 games and are just two games behind first-place Cleveland in AL Central.
Tampa Bay +131 over TORONTO
Jake Odorizzi is one of the hottest pitchers in the majors right now with four walks issued, 27 K?s and a 1.71 ERA over his last 32 frames covering five starts. It gets better too. In his last start, Odorizzi?s groundball rate was 50%. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts was 15%, which is up five percentage points from his overall swing and miss rate of 10%. Before he had spent much time in the majors, minor league analysts projected that Odorizzi would mature into a reliable and very effective starter. Now 26 years old and in the middle of his third full season, that may be coming into fruition. Furthermore, Odorizzi owns current Blue Jays? hitters. In 134 career AB?s against Odorizzi, current Jays have a mere 20 hits (.149 BA). That?s when the Jays were seeing beach balls. Right now, Toronto is seeing BB gun pellets with a .207 team batting average over the past 20 games, which ranks dead last in MLB over that span.
One can never rely on a knuckleball pitcher because the risk is too high when spotting a tag. That risk becomes even greater when applied to Toronto?s R.A Dickey. At home, Toronto has won just two of Dickey?s last 14 starts. This year at the Rogers Center, Dickey is 2-8 with an ERA of 5.40 over 71.2 innings. What?s even more disturbing is that Dickey has been tagged for 15 jacks in those aforementioned home innings.
This is the time of year that also-rans begin to enjoy the spoiler role. These two are longtime rivals and the Rays would love nothing more than to come in here and make life miserable for the Blue Jays. Tampa has always competed well against Toronto and in fact, the Rays came in here in May and beat the Blue Jays, 6-3, 12-2 and 13-2 in a three-game sweep. Now they?ll come in relaxed with no pressure whatsoever while the Blue Jays continue to squeeze their bats tight.
Cincinnati +174 over ST. LOUIS
The price here on the Cardinals is just plain stupid. The Cardinals are playing foolish baseball by committing too many errors, not moving runners over and leaving pitchers in there too long. Their relievers have been a complete disaster too. They?ll now look to Michael Wacha to turn things around and while it could happen, he and the Cardinals are way overpriced for us to ignore the dog in this one. Wacha has a 1.40 WHIP after 126 innings, which is above our 1.30 threshold for acceptability. In other words, he?s pitching with too much traffic on the bases almost every single game. In his last start, Wacha walked one and struck out three in five innings. His first-pitch strike rate over his last six games is only 57%, which suggests he could be running out of gas. For the most part, Wacha?s season has been a decent one for sure. However, Wacha's xERA of 4.11 isn't anything to get excited about. He hit a wall at the end of last year with an ERA of 7.37 in last six starts and he had serious shoulder issues late in 2014. Backed by solid control, a groundball tilt, and respectable swing and miss stuff, there's a lot to like about Wacha at the age of 25. Thing is, he?s a late season big risk, especially with the signs of fatigue setting in.
We?ve backed Cody Reed a few times this season without much success but we?re not about to give up on this talented starter. Reed has wicked stuff without the results and while said results are ugly on paper (7.30 ERA) it?s all been fueled by some rotten luck. The beautiful thing is that Reed?s surface ERA after eight starts gets us a hugely inflated number here. First off, Reed has 38 K?s in 41 innings, which comes with the full support of his 12% swing and miss rate. He averages 93 MPH on the gun and is often at 95 MPH. In his last start, Reed?s groundball rate was 70%. His overall groundball rate is in the upper echelon of starters at 57% and 63% over his past four starts. Reed?s low strand rate of 65% and high hr/f rate of 31% have combined to torpedo his surface stats. That hr/f rate is actually a sick number that is working against him. More bad luck can be seen in Reed?s BABIP, which is at .367. Typically, balls in play will find holes or drop in three out of every 10 at bats, which explain a hitter that bats .300 every year. Said hitter will ALWAYS put the ball in play and that?s the reason for his consistent BA. Well, the same numbers apply to pitchers too. League average for BABIP is .297, which gives us an idea of just how unlucky Reed has been. This kid has nasty stuff and once his metrics normalize, the wins will follow. At this price against the reeling Cardinals, this is a wager worth making.
Atlanta +141 over MILWAUKEE
Robert Whalen makes just the second start of his MLB career. Whalen was tagged for four runs in the first inning of his first start against Pittsburgh but settled down and did not allow another run over the next four frames. He ended up going five full and allowing four runs for an ERA of 7.20, which looks ugly on paper but does not tell the full story. Whalen began the season in Double-A before getting the call to Triple-A in mid-July. Despite struggling with the injury bug in recent seasons, he?s been fully healthy in 2016. When healthy, he is a command/control starter with average stuff. He consistently throws good strikes to all quadrants of the strike zone with all three offerings. Whalen?s fastball mostly sits in the low-90s, but he exhibits a lot of deception with his throwing motion and arm slot. Additionally, the sinking action on his fastball makes it difficult to elevate. His other pitches include a curveball that serves as his putaway pitch and a solid-average change-up. There is no question that Whalen bring risk but this is simply a scouting report on the guy and has very little to do with our decision to back the Braves. This one is all about the fade.
Not interested in Milwaukee as a big favorite and certainly not interested in Zach Davies as a big favorite either. The Brewers are coming off a six-game trip to San Diego and Arizona where they won once in both cities. The opposition scored 39 times on the Crew in those six games. Davies' stock is high because he has won three games in a row while posting a 2.45 ERA over that stretch but the skills do not support the results. Davies' swing and miss rate in his last start was 4%. He averages 89 MPH on the gun and relies heavily on a change that he throws 20% of the time. He?s decreased the usage of both his cutter and curve so that he?s mostly throwing fastballs and changeups and when he?s inside the zone on those, players are making contact 90.1% of the time. Zack Davies is on quite a roll with an ERA of 1.78 over his last five starts. That?s the same ERA that James Shields had over a recent five-game stretch, which once again proves that pitchers can get very lucky (or unlucky) over an extended period of time. Davies xERA over his last five starts is 4.03 with the fact remaining that excels at nothing. He has a repeatable delivery and induces a fair amount of groundballs but he is average at best and never will be anything more. Davies has far more appeal as a dog.
The Braves pick up Matt Kemp at the trade deadline and subsequently score five runs or more in four of their past five games while winning all four. Against the Cardinals on the weekend, Atlanta scored 13 and six runs respectively on Saturday and Sunday. Feeling good and having fun, these enthusiastic Braves have a great chance to keep it going against here.
Biggest UNDER run: Rangers (0-7-1 past eight)
The 'under' is 0-6-1 in the past seven road games for the Texas Rangers. That streak will be put to the test in a road series in Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies. The 'under' is also 5-0-1 in their past six interleague road games, and 12-3-1 in their past 16 road games against a team with a winning home record. For Colorado, the 'under' is 5-1-1 in their past seven interleague affairs, and 14-6 in their past 20 against teams with an overall winning record.
Biggest OVER run: Twins (9-0 past nine)
The Twins offense has been doing the job at the dish lately, posting five or more runs in seven of their past nine outings and 10 of the past 14 contests. The 'over' is also 6-0-2 in Tyler Duffey's past eight home starts, and 10-1-3 in his past 14 assignments overall. The 'over' is also 3-0-1 in the past four head-to-head meetings between these clubs, and 3-0-1 in Collin McHugh's past four starts against Minnesota.
