07:05 PM MLB [901] Washington Nationals -1.5 -115 ( R Roark - R / J Thompson - R )
07:20 PM MLB [906] TOTAL u8-110 (St Louis Cardinals vrs Milwaukee Brewers) (Martinez/Davies)
08:05 PM MLB [908] Chicago Cubs -1.5 -105 ( S Brault - L / J Arrieta - R )
07:05 PM MLB [911] TOTAL o10-110 (Toronto Blue Jays vrs Baltimore Orioles) (Estrada/Miley)
07:10 PM MLB [914] Boston Red Sox -1.5 +110 ( M Andriese - R / R Porcello)
07:10 PM MLB [918] Detroit Tigers -1.5 +105 ( J Shields - R / M Boyd - L )
10:05 PM MLB [926] TOTAL u8-105 (Cincinnati Reds vrs Los Angeles Angels) (Straily/Shoemaker)
1 unit bet pays 110 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-143, -31.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24..
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
Arrieta's .242 BABIP, and his favorable ratio of soft/hard contact is what is saving him as he allows plenty of hits and is walking more than he used to..Cubs have won his last 4 starts, but remember, before that they lost 5 starts of his in a row! And 4 of those 5 Cubbies were big chalk favorites north of -200....Cubs have won 7 of his last 8 starts vs Pitt, and Pitt is just 3-11 in the last 14 meetings overall.
Arrieta won all of his August decisions last year, on his way to winning the Cy Young...
Cubs have covered the -1.5 in 15 of their last 17 wins. and have won four in a row at home, and 12 of its last 14 home games...and 19-3 in home series openers..Pirates are half a game out of wild card spot, on a mini win streak right now (but that's at Brewers) and Cubbies lost the last few, and are now at home in 1st game after a long road swing. Cubbies are 6-0 this season 1st game at home after long road trip.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Marco Estrada - 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Prior to this start, Estrada held a 4.21 ERA, 4.59 FIP and 4.27 xFIP over his last 10 starts as he averaged around 5.2 innings per start (and 6 Ks per outing). The end was coming y'all.
Aside from an elevated home run rate, Matt Boyd has filled in well for an injury-depleted Detroit Tigers rotation. The Chicago White Sox visit Comerica Park for the opener of an AL Central set toting one of the lowest home run rates versus lefties in the league.
Remember Rafael Montero? He was supposed to be the next Mets ace before guys such as Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom were even on the radar. Still just 25 years old, Montero has fought his way through a demotion to Double-A to earn another shot with the big club. There's obviously some risk, but at least Montero comes back to the Big Apple with some confidence, spinning a 1.57 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 20 whiffs in his past 23 innings for Double-A Binghamton, a span of four starts. The righty draws a Marlins club that is league average against righties but is without Giancarlo Stanton and Derek Dietrich.
Rafael Montero will make his third appearance and first start of the season, taking the spot of Jacob deGrom who will skip a start to work on mechanical issues. Montero has only pitched 2.1 innings of relief at the Major League level this season, allowing three runs. He has seen some of the Marlins in his brief time in the Majors over the last few seasons, allowing four runs (three earned) in 7.1 innings pitched. Dee Gordon is 2 for 5 with a double against Montero, while JT Realmuto is 1 for 4, and Marcell Ozuna is 1 for 3. Montero struggled at the Triple-A level this season, posting a weak 7.20 ERA, but was better in Double-A, where he put up a 1.70 ERA.
Since July 1, Jose Fernandez's surface stats are rather pedestrian, with a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. However, a 12.5 K/9 in combination with a 2.33 BB/9 over that span suggests something is amiss. The culprit is a bloated .385 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is rendered even more curious because his hard hit rate against during this time is well below average. This is a reminder that Lady Luck doesn't play favorites. Next up for the Miami Marlins righty is a date with the New York Mets at Citi Field. Expect another big game from Fernandez, as the hosts' offense is below average versus right-handers and prone to striking out.
Jake Arrieta, on the other hand, has enjoyed some good fortune, as he carries a .242 BABIP for the season. To his credit, he has induced more soft contact and less hard contact than league average. However, the jury is still out with regard to how much of that is under the pitcher's control and how much is happenstance. Regardless, it's fortuitous that Arrieta's hits allowed are low, as his walk rate is well above league average and he is fanning fewer batters than he did last season.
Yankees vs. Royals
Play: Royals +105
Kansas City has won 17 of its last 21 games and now the Royals go home where they are 40-21 this season. Michael Pineda is 6-10 with a 5.02 ERA and he gave up five runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings his last outing at Seattle. Pineda is 2-6 on the road and he has given up six runs and six hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Royals this season. Last year against Kansas City, Pineda allowed six runs and 16 hits in 12 innings. Seven players on the Royals roster are batting at least .300 against the right-hander. Dillon Gee has allowed the Yankees just one run with three hits in 5 1/3 innings this year. Kansas City has won 14 of its last 17 against right-handed starters and we'll back there here.
Toronto @ BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE +123 over Toronto
It?s been a coast-to-coast-to-coast year for Wade Miley. After toiling for the Red Sox in 2015, Miley was traded to the Mariners in December, and then again to the Orioles at the Aug. 1 trade deadline. Miley?s not exactly shined for Baltimore, posting a 9.53 ERA in four starts. Miley has not had an ERA under 4.30 since 2013 but his skills are essentially the same now as they were then. In other words, Miley shows he?s pitched at this level for years. His xERA shows that he's done better than his ERA indicates but his strand rate isn?t helping. He?s not doing enough to stand out. Other than the 2014 outlier, Miley's K-rate has been in the upper-6 range for years. Miley does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground but he?s also been hurt by hr/f this year. The change in venue doesn?t exactly help; while Safeco played neutral, Camden Yards enhances LH HR by 37%. Miley looks like an innings-eater at this point and his 9%/39% dominant start/disaster start split shows he?ll post an occasional gem, but there also will be a ton of clunkers. Wade Miley is not exactly the type of pitcher we like to get behind but Baltimore?s bullpen is superior to Toronto?s and we suspect the pens might have a say in this one.
The Jays are coming off a three-game sweep over the Twinkies in which they scored 32 runs combined. The three-game sweep has this market forgetting all about the Jays losing two of three to the Angels prior. This weekend, Jose Bautista returned, Josh Donaldson was whacking balls out the park and the Jays played to a packed house all weekend long. It was a fun weekend for the Jays and their fans but once again, Toronto?s stock is way higher than it should be. Lost in those three wins was Toronto allowing the Twins to score 21 times. If not for Minnesota?s horrible bullpen, we might be talking about a Jays five-game losing streak to the Angels and Twins, as Minnesota blew leads in all three games, including a three-run and four-run lead in the final two.
We kept insisting that Marco Estrada?s run of success was fueled by luck and many of you kept insisting we were wrong. We kept responding by saying it was not an opinion, but fact that Marco Estrada?s two years of remarkable numbers was mostly luck and at some point luck runs out. While we are just three starts into Estrada?s inevitable regression, chances are he?ll NEVER see numbers anything close to the numbers he put up over the past two years so let?s go over this one more time. Estrada is constantly behind in the count. His first-pitch strike rate of 54% is one of the lowest among starters. That?s significant because MLB hitters are batting .267 when the count is 1-0. When the count is 0-1, they are batting .178. Estrada?s 47% fly-ball rate is also one of the worst among starters. That assures us of a weak hr/f rate, which Estrada has (11%). All those balls hit to the warning track are no longer being hit to the warning track. Instead, they are going over the fence. Estrada has been tagged for six jacks over his last three starts covering 14 innings. He?s also given up 22 hits and walked seven batters over those aforementioned 14 frames. Estrada?s strand rate during his remarkable (lucky) run was 86%. Over his past three starts that strand rate has normalized to 71%, which is just below league average. Estrada is not in a slump. He's still throwing 87 MPH on his lifless fastball. He?s pitching exactly the same now (8.28 ERA over his last three starts) as when he pitched to an ERA of 2.92 over his first 19 starts or when he didn?t crack the Jays or Brewers rotation two and three years ago respectively. The difference is luck and Estrada?s has run out.
Coldest team: Twins (0-10 past 10, 0-7 past seven on road)
The Twins started to show some signs of life near the end of July and early August, going 9-3 in a 12-game stretch from July 28 to Aug. 8, which also included a 3-1 series win at Progressive Field from Aug. 1-4. They return to the scene of the crime trying to snap their double-digit loss streak. In their three weeks in Cleveland earlier this month, Minnesota posted 10 or more runs in each of the first three games of the series while the 'over' cashed in each of the four games. The Indians might be on their way to winning the American League Central Division, but it's no thanks to the Twins. Minnesota is 8-5 against Cleveland this season, including 5-2 at Progressive Field.
Hottest pitcher: Dan Straily, Reds (10-6, 3.57 ERA)
There haven't been a lot of bright spots in Cincinnati this season, but how many people could have predicted double-digit wins from Straily after he was claimed off waivers from the San Diego Padres back on April Fool's Day? He is showing no signs of slowing down, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over his past three outings, striking out 18 batters while walking just two in the past 17 1/3 innings. The Reds are even hotter with Straily on the hill, winning each of his past eight starts, and four of his past five on the road.
Item: Jose Fernandez is on the road, but it is too early to pull the trigger
There have been ?In the Sights?? tickets in each of the last two Fernandez road starts, both ending up on the positive side of the ledger, and it has been a combination of two aspects in play ? his continued Home/Away disparities, which may now be a psychological block for him, and also the fact that off of a shortened 2015, his stamina at this stage is an open issue. Let?s look at the splits first -
Career:
HOME 27-2/1.57
AWAY 8-14/3.99
2016:
HOME 10-2/1.91
AWAY 3-5/4.42
If we make stamina an issue, note that he has had four road starts since July 1, and they check in at an ugly 0-3/6.55, the Marlins losing the game in which he did not get a decision. Yet on mostly reputation, Fernandez is out there at -155 at New York tonight, backed by a Miami team that lacks form, and took a dent to their Wild Card hopes in losing a series vs. the Padres at home over the weekend.
So why isn?t another ticket being fired up? In this case, a picture really is worth a thousand words, Dan Warthen and Terry Collins being forced to accept that on this pass through the rotation it is not Harvey/Matz/deGrom, but instead Lugo/Gsellman/Montero. Who could have envisioned 2016 coming down to this.
And it isn?t just pitching issues for the Mets, but the fact that they were without Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker and Justin Ruggiano yesterday, then lost Asdrubal Cabrera in the first inning as well. I have to wait this one out for now until there is some lineup info, and even then it is not easy to trust Rafael Montero. Montero was demoted from AAA to AA after sporting an ugly 7.20 allowance across 16 starts, and while he did settle down after dropping in class, there are questions as to whether his stuff is really ready for The Show, and also if he is up to the pressure of this setting. For the moment continuing the anti-Fernandez parade is off to the side.
Biggest OVER run: Reds (7-3 past 10, 16-5 past 21)
The 'over' has been a frequent play for Cincinnati lately, especially at home. The over is 9-4-1 in the past 14 games at home for the Reds, while the Angels have seen the 'under' hit in each of their past four, while the under is 6-1-1 in their past eight vs. RHP. However, in interleague play the 'over' is 10-4-1 in the past 15 interleague games, and the over is 13-3 in their past 16 home games against a team with a losing overall record.
In the Sights, Monday MLB?
I did not expect to see money for James Shields when I began tracking the Monday morning trading, but there it is, to the point at which an opener of -205 has been shortened to -180, with all of the various attachments also dropping. That means time to play #918 Detroit Run Line (7:10 Eastern), that option now becoming available at an underdog rate of return, and good to -105 on my charts.
As bad as things have been for Shields over the full campaign, and at 5-16/5.98 it has been very, very bad, his August has been one for the ages, an 0-4/13.95 in which he has allowed 11 home runs in just 20 innings, along with 37 other base-runners. Yet it may be even worse than that ? the last three starts were vs. the offensively inferior lineups of the A?s, Phillies and Marlins. It is not easy to envision where any kind of turnaround would come from, and while the Tigers had a disappointing offensive weekend, this will be their third look at Shields in five weeks, the first two bringing eight runs across 11 innings.
The form of Matt Boyd is fine for our purposes here, a 2-0/1.89 after having to be used in relief once in Seattle, that appearance not taking him out of rhythm. It has been nine straight starts of three earned runs or less, and for the full season a confident 3-1/2.82 from this mound. Those last two losses to the Angels also set up the bullpen well here for the latter stages.
In the Sights, NCAA Week #1?
I am going to copy-and-paste from Friday for those that are just coming in fresh today for the opening of the NCAA season, and it is worth noting that there has been more bad news for Dan Mullen, the arrest of starting DT Nick James. There is no official word on his status for this game, but with this being his fourth arrest since enrolling at State, and the fact that it is a non-conference game, I would strongly expect him to be suspended. This one works at +28 or better.
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If the oddsmakers price the talent gap properly it can often bring us a setting in which there are motivational issues on each sideline that can be put into play, and I believe we have that next Saturday with #171 South Alabama (Noon Eastern) taking a generous +31 at Mississippi State. Not only can both sides of this equation work, but the starting time being moved up to 11 AM in Starkville makes it a far less hostile environment for the Jaguars than it could have been. Value extends down to +28 in this one.
Dan Mullen is one of the better coaches in all of college football going 55-35 at State despite coming from the worst recruiting outpost in the daunting SEC West. And Mullen is savvy enough to know that the scoreboard margin here doesn?t mean a damn thing for this program ? with the SEC opener up vs. South Carolina next week, and then a trip to LSU, this is merely a ?take care of business? setting, with the key cogs not playing much more than they have to, the HC looking at the scoreboard more to see the clock ticking than the points.
There are issues with some of those keys, however, which is a plus for our purposes here. Dak Prescott has quickly shown the NFL just how good he is, and after three seasons of his leading the Bulldog offense there is a major downgrade at the position, especially with the QB derby having four players in the hunt when spring practice began, which meant no one getting enough reps with the first team offense. Mullen could only reduce that to three in fall camp, and he will not name a starter from the Damian Williams/Nick Fitzgerald/Nick Tiano trio until Monday. Even then Mullen states that the battle is not over - ?The problem is we come out Monday, OK, this guy is ready to start. Now we transition to game planning and they really don?t handle it well. I might have to flip and go back. The other aspect is getting into a game. Even though a guy?s a starter we?ll make sure that they?re ready when the lights come on. If he collapses, another guy really is much better when the lights come on and we?ve got to look at that aspect of the evaluation, too.?
This offense has gone from being set for three seasons to an awkward open audition ? the three challengers have been splitting practice reps since fall camp opened (Elijah Staley, who was in the mix in the spring, transferred out), meaning that no one got nearly enough time with the first team, which makes it difficult to explode out of the gate. But the Bulldogs don?t just have an issue on offense, the CB position has also become a major problem. The secondary was already having to replace Taveze Calhoun and Will Redmond, who are on NFL training camp rosters trying to earn Sunday paychecks, but expected starters Tolando Cleveland and Cedric Jiles have both been lost with recent injuries, scrambling up that position. As such, Mullen might consider a scoreboard outcome far below this pointspread to still be a ?win? in the grand scheme of his 2016 purposes, and note that it would not be something new ? he is 3-7 ATS laying -20 or more in non-conference games. As long-time readers know I rarely talk about trends, especially those with small samples, but the Big Chalk/Big Dog roles do get seriously charted because so much of that can be attributed to a coaches intent.
South Alabama brings the ideal focus for a big dog in this range ? the Jaguars have talked openly about how getting to play an SEC team in the opener brings a different energy to fall practice. The talent is just good enough to not be overwhelmed, and in particular there is a game planning consideration that brings the kind of factor that makes college football unique ? the sort of edges that are not priced into the line.
Kane Wommack is the new South Alabama defensive coordinator, and the youngest in the nation at the age of 28. That age might be an issue at another time, but not here, because of a pedigree that matters ? his father Dave is a long-time veteran that has been the DC at Mississippi the past four seasons, where Kane served as a grad assistant a couple of years ago.
Ole Miss, of course, is the biggest rival for State. The elder Wommack does not just game plan one week out of every year when facing the Bulldogs, but because of the magnitude of the rivalry likely thinks about the Mullen playbook for much of the off-season. So you can just imagine this scene around a picnic table on one of those hot and humid summer evenings ? ?Daddy what is the best way for us to game plan against State?? And the elder Wommack twists off a crayfish tail and says ?Well son, here are some of the things that have worked for us??
South Alabama has no chance to win this game, but with State lacking any interest in winning by five TDs, and the Jaguars bringing a greater sense of purpose than usual in this point spread range, there is value on backing the underdog to compete.
07:20 PM MLB [906] TOTAL u8-110 (St Louis Cardinals vrs Milwaukee Brewers) (Martinez/Davies)
08:05 PM MLB [908] Chicago Cubs -1.5 -105 ( S Brault - L / J Arrieta - R )
07:05 PM MLB [911] TOTAL o10-110 (Toronto Blue Jays vrs Baltimore Orioles) (Estrada/Miley)
07:10 PM MLB [914] Boston Red Sox -1.5 +110 ( M Andriese - R / R Porcello)
07:10 PM MLB [918] Detroit Tigers -1.5 +105 ( J Shields - R / M Boyd - L )
10:05 PM MLB [926] TOTAL u8-105 (Cincinnati Reds vrs Los Angeles Angels) (Straily/Shoemaker)
1 unit bet pays 110 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-143, -31.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24..
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
Arrieta's .242 BABIP, and his favorable ratio of soft/hard contact is what is saving him as he allows plenty of hits and is walking more than he used to..Cubs have won his last 4 starts, but remember, before that they lost 5 starts of his in a row! And 4 of those 5 Cubbies were big chalk favorites north of -200....Cubs have won 7 of his last 8 starts vs Pitt, and Pitt is just 3-11 in the last 14 meetings overall.
Arrieta won all of his August decisions last year, on his way to winning the Cy Young...
Cubs have covered the -1.5 in 15 of their last 17 wins. and have won four in a row at home, and 12 of its last 14 home games...and 19-3 in home series openers..Pirates are half a game out of wild card spot, on a mini win streak right now (but that's at Brewers) and Cubbies lost the last few, and are now at home in 1st game after a long road swing. Cubbies are 6-0 this season 1st game at home after long road trip.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Marco Estrada - 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Prior to this start, Estrada held a 4.21 ERA, 4.59 FIP and 4.27 xFIP over his last 10 starts as he averaged around 5.2 innings per start (and 6 Ks per outing). The end was coming y'all.
Aside from an elevated home run rate, Matt Boyd has filled in well for an injury-depleted Detroit Tigers rotation. The Chicago White Sox visit Comerica Park for the opener of an AL Central set toting one of the lowest home run rates versus lefties in the league.
Remember Rafael Montero? He was supposed to be the next Mets ace before guys such as Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom were even on the radar. Still just 25 years old, Montero has fought his way through a demotion to Double-A to earn another shot with the big club. There's obviously some risk, but at least Montero comes back to the Big Apple with some confidence, spinning a 1.57 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 20 whiffs in his past 23 innings for Double-A Binghamton, a span of four starts. The righty draws a Marlins club that is league average against righties but is without Giancarlo Stanton and Derek Dietrich.
Rafael Montero will make his third appearance and first start of the season, taking the spot of Jacob deGrom who will skip a start to work on mechanical issues. Montero has only pitched 2.1 innings of relief at the Major League level this season, allowing three runs. He has seen some of the Marlins in his brief time in the Majors over the last few seasons, allowing four runs (three earned) in 7.1 innings pitched. Dee Gordon is 2 for 5 with a double against Montero, while JT Realmuto is 1 for 4, and Marcell Ozuna is 1 for 3. Montero struggled at the Triple-A level this season, posting a weak 7.20 ERA, but was better in Double-A, where he put up a 1.70 ERA.
Since July 1, Jose Fernandez's surface stats are rather pedestrian, with a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. However, a 12.5 K/9 in combination with a 2.33 BB/9 over that span suggests something is amiss. The culprit is a bloated .385 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is rendered even more curious because his hard hit rate against during this time is well below average. This is a reminder that Lady Luck doesn't play favorites. Next up for the Miami Marlins righty is a date with the New York Mets at Citi Field. Expect another big game from Fernandez, as the hosts' offense is below average versus right-handers and prone to striking out.
Jake Arrieta, on the other hand, has enjoyed some good fortune, as he carries a .242 BABIP for the season. To his credit, he has induced more soft contact and less hard contact than league average. However, the jury is still out with regard to how much of that is under the pitcher's control and how much is happenstance. Regardless, it's fortuitous that Arrieta's hits allowed are low, as his walk rate is well above league average and he is fanning fewer batters than he did last season.
Yankees vs. Royals
Play: Royals +105
Kansas City has won 17 of its last 21 games and now the Royals go home where they are 40-21 this season. Michael Pineda is 6-10 with a 5.02 ERA and he gave up five runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings his last outing at Seattle. Pineda is 2-6 on the road and he has given up six runs and six hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Royals this season. Last year against Kansas City, Pineda allowed six runs and 16 hits in 12 innings. Seven players on the Royals roster are batting at least .300 against the right-hander. Dillon Gee has allowed the Yankees just one run with three hits in 5 1/3 innings this year. Kansas City has won 14 of its last 17 against right-handed starters and we'll back there here.
Toronto @ BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE +123 over Toronto
It?s been a coast-to-coast-to-coast year for Wade Miley. After toiling for the Red Sox in 2015, Miley was traded to the Mariners in December, and then again to the Orioles at the Aug. 1 trade deadline. Miley?s not exactly shined for Baltimore, posting a 9.53 ERA in four starts. Miley has not had an ERA under 4.30 since 2013 but his skills are essentially the same now as they were then. In other words, Miley shows he?s pitched at this level for years. His xERA shows that he's done better than his ERA indicates but his strand rate isn?t helping. He?s not doing enough to stand out. Other than the 2014 outlier, Miley's K-rate has been in the upper-6 range for years. Miley does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground but he?s also been hurt by hr/f this year. The change in venue doesn?t exactly help; while Safeco played neutral, Camden Yards enhances LH HR by 37%. Miley looks like an innings-eater at this point and his 9%/39% dominant start/disaster start split shows he?ll post an occasional gem, but there also will be a ton of clunkers. Wade Miley is not exactly the type of pitcher we like to get behind but Baltimore?s bullpen is superior to Toronto?s and we suspect the pens might have a say in this one.
The Jays are coming off a three-game sweep over the Twinkies in which they scored 32 runs combined. The three-game sweep has this market forgetting all about the Jays losing two of three to the Angels prior. This weekend, Jose Bautista returned, Josh Donaldson was whacking balls out the park and the Jays played to a packed house all weekend long. It was a fun weekend for the Jays and their fans but once again, Toronto?s stock is way higher than it should be. Lost in those three wins was Toronto allowing the Twins to score 21 times. If not for Minnesota?s horrible bullpen, we might be talking about a Jays five-game losing streak to the Angels and Twins, as Minnesota blew leads in all three games, including a three-run and four-run lead in the final two.
We kept insisting that Marco Estrada?s run of success was fueled by luck and many of you kept insisting we were wrong. We kept responding by saying it was not an opinion, but fact that Marco Estrada?s two years of remarkable numbers was mostly luck and at some point luck runs out. While we are just three starts into Estrada?s inevitable regression, chances are he?ll NEVER see numbers anything close to the numbers he put up over the past two years so let?s go over this one more time. Estrada is constantly behind in the count. His first-pitch strike rate of 54% is one of the lowest among starters. That?s significant because MLB hitters are batting .267 when the count is 1-0. When the count is 0-1, they are batting .178. Estrada?s 47% fly-ball rate is also one of the worst among starters. That assures us of a weak hr/f rate, which Estrada has (11%). All those balls hit to the warning track are no longer being hit to the warning track. Instead, they are going over the fence. Estrada has been tagged for six jacks over his last three starts covering 14 innings. He?s also given up 22 hits and walked seven batters over those aforementioned 14 frames. Estrada?s strand rate during his remarkable (lucky) run was 86%. Over his past three starts that strand rate has normalized to 71%, which is just below league average. Estrada is not in a slump. He's still throwing 87 MPH on his lifless fastball. He?s pitching exactly the same now (8.28 ERA over his last three starts) as when he pitched to an ERA of 2.92 over his first 19 starts or when he didn?t crack the Jays or Brewers rotation two and three years ago respectively. The difference is luck and Estrada?s has run out.
Coldest team: Twins (0-10 past 10, 0-7 past seven on road)
The Twins started to show some signs of life near the end of July and early August, going 9-3 in a 12-game stretch from July 28 to Aug. 8, which also included a 3-1 series win at Progressive Field from Aug. 1-4. They return to the scene of the crime trying to snap their double-digit loss streak. In their three weeks in Cleveland earlier this month, Minnesota posted 10 or more runs in each of the first three games of the series while the 'over' cashed in each of the four games. The Indians might be on their way to winning the American League Central Division, but it's no thanks to the Twins. Minnesota is 8-5 against Cleveland this season, including 5-2 at Progressive Field.
Hottest pitcher: Dan Straily, Reds (10-6, 3.57 ERA)
There haven't been a lot of bright spots in Cincinnati this season, but how many people could have predicted double-digit wins from Straily after he was claimed off waivers from the San Diego Padres back on April Fool's Day? He is showing no signs of slowing down, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over his past three outings, striking out 18 batters while walking just two in the past 17 1/3 innings. The Reds are even hotter with Straily on the hill, winning each of his past eight starts, and four of his past five on the road.
Item: Jose Fernandez is on the road, but it is too early to pull the trigger
There have been ?In the Sights?? tickets in each of the last two Fernandez road starts, both ending up on the positive side of the ledger, and it has been a combination of two aspects in play ? his continued Home/Away disparities, which may now be a psychological block for him, and also the fact that off of a shortened 2015, his stamina at this stage is an open issue. Let?s look at the splits first -
Career:
HOME 27-2/1.57
AWAY 8-14/3.99
2016:
HOME 10-2/1.91
AWAY 3-5/4.42
If we make stamina an issue, note that he has had four road starts since July 1, and they check in at an ugly 0-3/6.55, the Marlins losing the game in which he did not get a decision. Yet on mostly reputation, Fernandez is out there at -155 at New York tonight, backed by a Miami team that lacks form, and took a dent to their Wild Card hopes in losing a series vs. the Padres at home over the weekend.
So why isn?t another ticket being fired up? In this case, a picture really is worth a thousand words, Dan Warthen and Terry Collins being forced to accept that on this pass through the rotation it is not Harvey/Matz/deGrom, but instead Lugo/Gsellman/Montero. Who could have envisioned 2016 coming down to this.
And it isn?t just pitching issues for the Mets, but the fact that they were without Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker and Justin Ruggiano yesterday, then lost Asdrubal Cabrera in the first inning as well. I have to wait this one out for now until there is some lineup info, and even then it is not easy to trust Rafael Montero. Montero was demoted from AAA to AA after sporting an ugly 7.20 allowance across 16 starts, and while he did settle down after dropping in class, there are questions as to whether his stuff is really ready for The Show, and also if he is up to the pressure of this setting. For the moment continuing the anti-Fernandez parade is off to the side.
Biggest OVER run: Reds (7-3 past 10, 16-5 past 21)
The 'over' has been a frequent play for Cincinnati lately, especially at home. The over is 9-4-1 in the past 14 games at home for the Reds, while the Angels have seen the 'under' hit in each of their past four, while the under is 6-1-1 in their past eight vs. RHP. However, in interleague play the 'over' is 10-4-1 in the past 15 interleague games, and the over is 13-3 in their past 16 home games against a team with a losing overall record.
In the Sights, Monday MLB?
I did not expect to see money for James Shields when I began tracking the Monday morning trading, but there it is, to the point at which an opener of -205 has been shortened to -180, with all of the various attachments also dropping. That means time to play #918 Detroit Run Line (7:10 Eastern), that option now becoming available at an underdog rate of return, and good to -105 on my charts.
As bad as things have been for Shields over the full campaign, and at 5-16/5.98 it has been very, very bad, his August has been one for the ages, an 0-4/13.95 in which he has allowed 11 home runs in just 20 innings, along with 37 other base-runners. Yet it may be even worse than that ? the last three starts were vs. the offensively inferior lineups of the A?s, Phillies and Marlins. It is not easy to envision where any kind of turnaround would come from, and while the Tigers had a disappointing offensive weekend, this will be their third look at Shields in five weeks, the first two bringing eight runs across 11 innings.
The form of Matt Boyd is fine for our purposes here, a 2-0/1.89 after having to be used in relief once in Seattle, that appearance not taking him out of rhythm. It has been nine straight starts of three earned runs or less, and for the full season a confident 3-1/2.82 from this mound. Those last two losses to the Angels also set up the bullpen well here for the latter stages.
In the Sights, NCAA Week #1?
I am going to copy-and-paste from Friday for those that are just coming in fresh today for the opening of the NCAA season, and it is worth noting that there has been more bad news for Dan Mullen, the arrest of starting DT Nick James. There is no official word on his status for this game, but with this being his fourth arrest since enrolling at State, and the fact that it is a non-conference game, I would strongly expect him to be suspended. This one works at +28 or better.
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If the oddsmakers price the talent gap properly it can often bring us a setting in which there are motivational issues on each sideline that can be put into play, and I believe we have that next Saturday with #171 South Alabama (Noon Eastern) taking a generous +31 at Mississippi State. Not only can both sides of this equation work, but the starting time being moved up to 11 AM in Starkville makes it a far less hostile environment for the Jaguars than it could have been. Value extends down to +28 in this one.
Dan Mullen is one of the better coaches in all of college football going 55-35 at State despite coming from the worst recruiting outpost in the daunting SEC West. And Mullen is savvy enough to know that the scoreboard margin here doesn?t mean a damn thing for this program ? with the SEC opener up vs. South Carolina next week, and then a trip to LSU, this is merely a ?take care of business? setting, with the key cogs not playing much more than they have to, the HC looking at the scoreboard more to see the clock ticking than the points.
There are issues with some of those keys, however, which is a plus for our purposes here. Dak Prescott has quickly shown the NFL just how good he is, and after three seasons of his leading the Bulldog offense there is a major downgrade at the position, especially with the QB derby having four players in the hunt when spring practice began, which meant no one getting enough reps with the first team offense. Mullen could only reduce that to three in fall camp, and he will not name a starter from the Damian Williams/Nick Fitzgerald/Nick Tiano trio until Monday. Even then Mullen states that the battle is not over - ?The problem is we come out Monday, OK, this guy is ready to start. Now we transition to game planning and they really don?t handle it well. I might have to flip and go back. The other aspect is getting into a game. Even though a guy?s a starter we?ll make sure that they?re ready when the lights come on. If he collapses, another guy really is much better when the lights come on and we?ve got to look at that aspect of the evaluation, too.?
This offense has gone from being set for three seasons to an awkward open audition ? the three challengers have been splitting practice reps since fall camp opened (Elijah Staley, who was in the mix in the spring, transferred out), meaning that no one got nearly enough time with the first team, which makes it difficult to explode out of the gate. But the Bulldogs don?t just have an issue on offense, the CB position has also become a major problem. The secondary was already having to replace Taveze Calhoun and Will Redmond, who are on NFL training camp rosters trying to earn Sunday paychecks, but expected starters Tolando Cleveland and Cedric Jiles have both been lost with recent injuries, scrambling up that position. As such, Mullen might consider a scoreboard outcome far below this pointspread to still be a ?win? in the grand scheme of his 2016 purposes, and note that it would not be something new ? he is 3-7 ATS laying -20 or more in non-conference games. As long-time readers know I rarely talk about trends, especially those with small samples, but the Big Chalk/Big Dog roles do get seriously charted because so much of that can be attributed to a coaches intent.
South Alabama brings the ideal focus for a big dog in this range ? the Jaguars have talked openly about how getting to play an SEC team in the opener brings a different energy to fall practice. The talent is just good enough to not be overwhelmed, and in particular there is a game planning consideration that brings the kind of factor that makes college football unique ? the sort of edges that are not priced into the line.
Kane Wommack is the new South Alabama defensive coordinator, and the youngest in the nation at the age of 28. That age might be an issue at another time, but not here, because of a pedigree that matters ? his father Dave is a long-time veteran that has been the DC at Mississippi the past four seasons, where Kane served as a grad assistant a couple of years ago.
Ole Miss, of course, is the biggest rival for State. The elder Wommack does not just game plan one week out of every year when facing the Bulldogs, but because of the magnitude of the rivalry likely thinks about the Mullen playbook for much of the off-season. So you can just imagine this scene around a picnic table on one of those hot and humid summer evenings ? ?Daddy what is the best way for us to game plan against State?? And the elder Wommack twists off a crayfish tail and says ?Well son, here are some of the things that have worked for us??
South Alabama has no chance to win this game, but with State lacking any interest in winning by five TDs, and the Jaguars bringing a greater sense of purpose than usual in this point spread range, there is value on backing the underdog to compete.
