Although I am better than in the past I am horrible at it. What are the thoughts of you guys here in the forum on this. I know I see insight every once and awhile. I notice Thunder plays % of bankroll while others play units. Im sure im not alone when I ask others here for their opinions.. Seems like its all about patience but sometimes thats hard to come by, ya know?
Money management
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I am opposed to betting a percentage of your current bankroll on each play. I understand the logic in it but I find it to be counterproductive in sports betting because of the fact that you are generally betting several games at the same time for the same stake. I prefer taking a dollar value and sticking with that dollar value as the stake for all plays until you get up or down a certain number of dollars and then adjusting the dollar value upwards or downwards accordingly.
Here is an example of why I am against percentage plays.
Percentage plays is something that is done to maximize profits while reducing risk. When you play percentage plays there is essentially no risk of going broke. If you stay disciplined and wager, say, 1% to 4% of your bankroll on every play, there is no way you could ever grow broke. You also will see a good increase in profits as you continue to win. But I would argue that it actually lessens your overall profits in most cases and makes it more difficult for most gamblers to turn a profit.
The problem is that you never maximize the effect of a percentage system unless you play 1 play at a time. If you play, say, 3% and you start with a $10,000 bankroll, you wager $300, then if you win you wager $309 and if you lose you wager $291. That works because each wager is based off a TRUE 3% of your bankroll.
In sports, however, you tend to wager on several games at once. Say you have 7 wagers on an NFL week 1. No matter ho you slice it, you will end up worse off than you would have wagering one game at a time. See, because your wagers should have been adjusted upwards after each win and downwards after each loss, a 5-2 day would not have been as profitable as it should have been and a 2-5 day would have been a higher loss than it should have been.
So what, you say? So your profit or loss is slightly askew from what it would have been playing one play at a time. What is the big deal?
The big deal comes in week 2. You went 5-2, winning $840. Now your wager is $325. But week 2 is not as good and you go 3-5. That is a loss of $812.50. Now your profit from an 8-7 (53.3%) start is only $27.50 (0.53% ROI).
If I start with a $10K bankroll and start with a wagering base of 3% of my bankroll, I wager $300 per play. Then when my bankroll hits about $13,500 or so, I move my wager base to 3% of that, or $400 per play.
Here is how the first two weeks would look under that scenario. With a 5-2 first week I have the same profit of $840. My 3-5 week 2 results in only a $750 loss for a profit of $90 (1.82% ROI).
As you can see, not only is my profit tripled, but my ROI is 3 1/2 times greater. Obviously this is only one example but let me tell you why I think this holds true for most players long term.
Wagering on sports is an investment with almost constant corrections. As hot as you are now, you will get nearly just as cold in a month or even a week. When you are moving your wagering base every day or in the case of the NFL every week, you subject yourself to large losses in profit due to these corrections.
It is a fair point that a 5-2 week followed by a 5-3 week and a 4-1 week would net larger profits if each week is adjusted by the bankroll percentage. Perhaps for those few handicappers who are more consistent and show losses on on relatively rare occasions such a system would work. But for a person who is inexperienced enough to have to ask about the ins and outs of a bankroll percentage money management system, most likely your inconsistent results will result in a percentage system hurting you.
My advice is to determine your bankroll. Let's say you have $1000 to lose. Now let's get a conservative number. I like 4%, but that is only 25 losses away from bankrupt. Maybe you like 3% or 2%. If you like 3%, play at $30 per play (don't play "to win" $30 with high chalk plays, by the way) until your bankroll hits either $1350 or $670. When it hits $1350, go to $40 per play. If it hits $670, reduce your number to $20 per play until you build it back to a number closer to your original $1000.
I don't want to tout this as a perfect system but it has worked for me.
Here is an example of why I am against percentage plays.
Percentage plays is something that is done to maximize profits while reducing risk. When you play percentage plays there is essentially no risk of going broke. If you stay disciplined and wager, say, 1% to 4% of your bankroll on every play, there is no way you could ever grow broke. You also will see a good increase in profits as you continue to win. But I would argue that it actually lessens your overall profits in most cases and makes it more difficult for most gamblers to turn a profit.
The problem is that you never maximize the effect of a percentage system unless you play 1 play at a time. If you play, say, 3% and you start with a $10,000 bankroll, you wager $300, then if you win you wager $309 and if you lose you wager $291. That works because each wager is based off a TRUE 3% of your bankroll.
In sports, however, you tend to wager on several games at once. Say you have 7 wagers on an NFL week 1. No matter ho you slice it, you will end up worse off than you would have wagering one game at a time. See, because your wagers should have been adjusted upwards after each win and downwards after each loss, a 5-2 day would not have been as profitable as it should have been and a 2-5 day would have been a higher loss than it should have been.
So what, you say? So your profit or loss is slightly askew from what it would have been playing one play at a time. What is the big deal?
The big deal comes in week 2. You went 5-2, winning $840. Now your wager is $325. But week 2 is not as good and you go 3-5. That is a loss of $812.50. Now your profit from an 8-7 (53.3%) start is only $27.50 (0.53% ROI).
If I start with a $10K bankroll and start with a wagering base of 3% of my bankroll, I wager $300 per play. Then when my bankroll hits about $13,500 or so, I move my wager base to 3% of that, or $400 per play.
Here is how the first two weeks would look under that scenario. With a 5-2 first week I have the same profit of $840. My 3-5 week 2 results in only a $750 loss for a profit of $90 (1.82% ROI).
As you can see, not only is my profit tripled, but my ROI is 3 1/2 times greater. Obviously this is only one example but let me tell you why I think this holds true for most players long term.
Wagering on sports is an investment with almost constant corrections. As hot as you are now, you will get nearly just as cold in a month or even a week. When you are moving your wagering base every day or in the case of the NFL every week, you subject yourself to large losses in profit due to these corrections.
It is a fair point that a 5-2 week followed by a 5-3 week and a 4-1 week would net larger profits if each week is adjusted by the bankroll percentage. Perhaps for those few handicappers who are more consistent and show losses on on relatively rare occasions such a system would work. But for a person who is inexperienced enough to have to ask about the ins and outs of a bankroll percentage money management system, most likely your inconsistent results will result in a percentage system hurting you.
My advice is to determine your bankroll. Let's say you have $1000 to lose. Now let's get a conservative number. I like 4%, but that is only 25 losses away from bankrupt. Maybe you like 3% or 2%. If you like 3%, play at $30 per play (don't play "to win" $30 with high chalk plays, by the way) until your bankroll hits either $1350 or $670. When it hits $1350, go to $40 per play. If it hits $670, reduce your number to $20 per play until you build it back to a number closer to your original $1000.
I don't want to tout this as a perfect system but it has worked for me.
Hey Nick, My money management completely SUCKS!!! I was up alot going into last sunday and ended up not collecting much! Your system seems to work well for you and i think it would for me too but my account isnt that big right know and i want to build it up higher so betting around 3 or 4% would be very small bets. What would be a good system for me if i wanted to throw down alittle more than 3 or 4%??? Need some insight.........
I hate to tell you this Billy but if you are looking to wager more than 3 or 4% you are playing with fire. I can see 5% wagers and if a play is really strong in all handicapping angles maybe even going up higher. But when your bankroll shrinks sometimes it is just something you have to deal with.
Remember that this is a long term game. Look at it as turning a profit lifetime. What you pay or collect from the man in a given week is really inconsequential. So if, say, you have to go down to $20 wagers or even $5 wagers when you are used to betting $300, sometimes that is what you have to do to stay in the game.
Books win not because games are tough to pick or because they keep the juice, but because people lack discipline. How much can you afford to lose? Give an honest answer. Then from that number find your wager base. If your wager base is $20, you have two options. Wager $20 or wait until you can afford to increase the amount of money you can reasonably lose.
All of this is easier said than done. Heck, I will freely admit that I fail to follow my own advice in this area from time to time. So what are some "real world" things you can do to bend the rules without breaking them?
You can give yourself a "bankroll advance". This is very, very risky and it takes a lot of discipline. In fact, for most folks I would flat out not suggest it. But I am a realist and I understand that some people become accustomed to betting a certain amount and when mistakes are made sometimes that amount becomes more than they should reasonably wager relative to their bankroll.
Let's say you are a $300 player. You probably started with more like a $3,000 to $5,000 bankroll rather than a $7,500 to $10,000 bankroll like you should have, but that's another story. Now you had a bad Sunday and you are down to your last $1,000 or so. Doing your calculations, you see that you "should" be betting $40 per game. "Jeez, that sounds low," you say. Well, it is when you were betting $300. What can be done?
For starters, at least make some sacrifice. I can't go $300, but what about $100? 10%, right? Not so bad. Well, 10% will kill you eventually but let's work with this.
Extracting from a $100 base wager you figure out what type of player you are. Do you play 1-3 games a day? 3 to 6? 7+? I'd say the corresponding base percentages for those respective action amounts are 4%, 3% and 2%.
Billy sounds like something of an action guy so let's say 2%. Extracting out from $100 base we see that Billy needs a $5,000 starting bankroll to justify $100 plays. Ouch. He only has $1,000, right? How on earth do you turn $1,000 into $5,000?
First and foremost, you look at your personal finances. Now, I know you weren't planning for this to happen but sometimes things don't go as expected. It is now time to put yourself on a payment plan. Figure out how much you can afford to set aside from each paycheck and be realistic. I know this sounds sick, building a gambling bankroll paycheck by paycheck, but I am trying to be realistic with folks who crave action and who are going to bet anyway.
How about $400 per month? I think a lot of people, especially those who were already $300 per game bettors, can squeeze an extra $400 per month out of their paycheck. So you figure that in 10 months time your bankroll will be where it should be but you want to bet now.
Basically what you do now is play as if you have a $100 base on a $5,000 bankroll. If you go and lose that $1,000 you still have left, then you quit *betting* but you don't quit *handicapping*. You continue to handicap each day and track your plays as if you were betting, but you don't put any money on those plays until the time of the month comes around when you are able to add that $400 to your bankroll.
Here is how this scenario plays out. If everything works well you will win at $100 per play with your $1,000 actual bankroll and $4,000 imaginary bankroll. You will never have to dip into the $400 per month and you will grow the bankroll to $10,000, where you can make $200 plays, and then $15,000, where you can get back to your beloved $300 plays.
If things don't go so well, you keep making adjustments. If you lose that $1,000, now your bankroll is $4,000. When you add the first $400, 2% of $4,000 is $80 so that is your new base. If you continue to lose you continue to reduce the amount of your plays but you NEVER, EVER let your whole $4,000 extra evaporate.
Now, before I conclude this I want to say that this is not really a recommended method. Quite simply, the most important ingredient to handicapping success is having money to start with. I think it is as important or more important than discipline. The best advice is to bite the bullet, bet the small amount and work your way back slowly.
I am just trying to be realistic, though. It is hard to bet small when you are used to betting big. Even if you must make up an imaginary bankroll that would take you years of working a real job to accumulate, you must at least do that so that you have some kind of reference to the lowering and raising of your bets. And you must always keep handcapping. If you run out of real money waiting for your next bankroll addition, keep plugging away as if it were a day betting real money. Keep yourself sharp because if you don't, when you do add the real money you will be so out of practice that you will inevitably lose whatever you add piece by piece very quickly.
Remember that this is a long term game. Look at it as turning a profit lifetime. What you pay or collect from the man in a given week is really inconsequential. So if, say, you have to go down to $20 wagers or even $5 wagers when you are used to betting $300, sometimes that is what you have to do to stay in the game.
Books win not because games are tough to pick or because they keep the juice, but because people lack discipline. How much can you afford to lose? Give an honest answer. Then from that number find your wager base. If your wager base is $20, you have two options. Wager $20 or wait until you can afford to increase the amount of money you can reasonably lose.
All of this is easier said than done. Heck, I will freely admit that I fail to follow my own advice in this area from time to time. So what are some "real world" things you can do to bend the rules without breaking them?
You can give yourself a "bankroll advance". This is very, very risky and it takes a lot of discipline. In fact, for most folks I would flat out not suggest it. But I am a realist and I understand that some people become accustomed to betting a certain amount and when mistakes are made sometimes that amount becomes more than they should reasonably wager relative to their bankroll.
Let's say you are a $300 player. You probably started with more like a $3,000 to $5,000 bankroll rather than a $7,500 to $10,000 bankroll like you should have, but that's another story. Now you had a bad Sunday and you are down to your last $1,000 or so. Doing your calculations, you see that you "should" be betting $40 per game. "Jeez, that sounds low," you say. Well, it is when you were betting $300. What can be done?
For starters, at least make some sacrifice. I can't go $300, but what about $100? 10%, right? Not so bad. Well, 10% will kill you eventually but let's work with this.
Extracting from a $100 base wager you figure out what type of player you are. Do you play 1-3 games a day? 3 to 6? 7+? I'd say the corresponding base percentages for those respective action amounts are 4%, 3% and 2%.
Billy sounds like something of an action guy so let's say 2%. Extracting out from $100 base we see that Billy needs a $5,000 starting bankroll to justify $100 plays. Ouch. He only has $1,000, right? How on earth do you turn $1,000 into $5,000?
First and foremost, you look at your personal finances. Now, I know you weren't planning for this to happen but sometimes things don't go as expected. It is now time to put yourself on a payment plan. Figure out how much you can afford to set aside from each paycheck and be realistic. I know this sounds sick, building a gambling bankroll paycheck by paycheck, but I am trying to be realistic with folks who crave action and who are going to bet anyway.
How about $400 per month? I think a lot of people, especially those who were already $300 per game bettors, can squeeze an extra $400 per month out of their paycheck. So you figure that in 10 months time your bankroll will be where it should be but you want to bet now.
Basically what you do now is play as if you have a $100 base on a $5,000 bankroll. If you go and lose that $1,000 you still have left, then you quit *betting* but you don't quit *handicapping*. You continue to handicap each day and track your plays as if you were betting, but you don't put any money on those plays until the time of the month comes around when you are able to add that $400 to your bankroll.
Here is how this scenario plays out. If everything works well you will win at $100 per play with your $1,000 actual bankroll and $4,000 imaginary bankroll. You will never have to dip into the $400 per month and you will grow the bankroll to $10,000, where you can make $200 plays, and then $15,000, where you can get back to your beloved $300 plays.
If things don't go so well, you keep making adjustments. If you lose that $1,000, now your bankroll is $4,000. When you add the first $400, 2% of $4,000 is $80 so that is your new base. If you continue to lose you continue to reduce the amount of your plays but you NEVER, EVER let your whole $4,000 extra evaporate.
Now, before I conclude this I want to say that this is not really a recommended method. Quite simply, the most important ingredient to handicapping success is having money to start with. I think it is as important or more important than discipline. The best advice is to bite the bullet, bet the small amount and work your way back slowly.
I am just trying to be realistic, though. It is hard to bet small when you are used to betting big. Even if you must make up an imaginary bankroll that would take you years of working a real job to accumulate, you must at least do that so that you have some kind of reference to the lowering and raising of your bets. And you must always keep handcapping. If you run out of real money waiting for your next bankroll addition, keep plugging away as if it were a day betting real money. Keep yourself sharp because if you don't, when you do add the real money you will be so out of practice that you will inevitably lose whatever you add piece by piece very quickly.
I agree that using a % of bankroll is fine for money management. However, it does not work for indicating how one's selections are doing. For instance, if you started out the NBA season by losing 50% in the first month, and then winning 50% in the next month, your posted record would show that you were even. However, if you did actually adjust your bets based on how much you have left in your bankroll, you would still be 25% behind (or thereabouts). Using a % of bankroll to show your record is not only inaccurate, it is misleading, in my opinion.
A record being misleading really is unimportant. You should be trying to win money for your own good so if you post a great record and are losing money, what's the point? Sure, if you are setting up a scam service you might bait a few suckers, but in the end your true ability (or lack there of) will show through.
That said, I do agree with heleanth's point about percentage plays.
That said, I do agree with heleanth's point about percentage plays.
I?ve toyed around with different things in the past but settled on a very simple money management system and one that if you?re betting as an investment on your money, you?re always going to come out ahead at a nice % of profit of what you started with at the beginning of the season and you?ll do so without panicking or chasing losses during the bad times during the season. Keep in mind, I?m not talking about ?recreational? betting, but rather betting for the sole purpose to MAKE money.
Basically, you should have a set amount to start a particular season with and play around 2% of your STARTING BANKROLL per play the entire season. I don?t flat bet, I?m either playing to win 2% on the favorite or I?m playing 2% on the dog. I consider each 2% to be ?one betting unit? Keep in mind, I?m not raising or lowering this according to what the current bankroll is and I?m not playing more than 5 or 6 games max in a sport such as baseball which is being played on pretty much a daily basis.
If you?re going higher than this per play, maybe it?s ok, but if you?re varying the % upwards of 5% or even higher AND playing a ton of games, you could go broke in no time at all?.You DON?T want to be losing 30, 40, or 50% of your bankroll in one day if you?re doing this to make money. The 2% should give you enough ?cushion? to cover the worst of streaks if you ever have a really bad one.
Keep in mind, my thinking is based on what?s going to make more for my money than what any other investment is over the approximate 6 month period such as the sport of baseball. For example, using the 2% per play system, if you start with $5000 and play for $100 per game and when all is said and done you end up 25 ?betting units?, you basically just made $2500 or 50% in just 6 months. Where else do you have the chance to make that much off your money in such a short time? Also, if when you hit any dreaded losing skids during the season, you?re not going to panic or chase your losses. It would take you to be down around 45 ?betting Units? considering the average line is ?110 to bankrupt your bankroll. In other words, you could be having a dreadful season and be down say 30 units, and still be comfortable betting the same amount. Basically, if you know what you?re doing when capping, limiting each play to around 2% will ensure that you make your money in the end, especially if your capping the games out right. If you go bankrupt using this system over the course of a long season such as baseball or basketball, you?re doing something wrong in handicapping the games and you shouldn?t be betting any serious $$ if making money is what you want
Once again, betting smaller or at a higher % is fine, but keep in mind I?m talking from the standpoint of actually making a high % off my money and doing it so over time. Way too many people want to get rich in one day, or week, or even a month and that?s not how it?s done seriously. There?s such a fine line in the difference in winning percentages of the professional vs the public player or normal sports fan betting that you have to accept the fact that there?s going to be times and lengths of times of winnings and losing streaks, but the ones that end up in the end are the ones that consistently cap the games right and consistently use proper money management. It?s surely is possible to get rich quick in sports betting, but you?re going to be taking a lot more chances and you?re going to be using either no money management or money management far more aggressive than what I?ve just talked about. If you, opt for that thinking you have to accept the consequences if things don?t turn out. Remember one key think: The reason you handicap and use good money management is to take the ?gambling? out of sports betting. If you don?t do the work and try to take risk loading up on a certain so called ?lock?, you are putting the ?gamble? back in sports betting.
As for parlays, I?ve had a big change in thinking over the last year or two. GSP talks in his thread about parlaying some and he was actually one of the guys that actually changed my thinking on this to a degree when we talked last year. Basically, if you are hitting a high enough % that actually wins in a sport, you can actually maximize your money even more by parlaying those games. Also, keep in mind, if doing this, you may want to drop the % of your bankroll that you are playing on each game, maybe even down to 1% per play.
Keep in mind, this is just what works well for me. Not saying it?s the best, but thought I?d share.
Good luck.
-ndnfan
Basically, you should have a set amount to start a particular season with and play around 2% of your STARTING BANKROLL per play the entire season. I don?t flat bet, I?m either playing to win 2% on the favorite or I?m playing 2% on the dog. I consider each 2% to be ?one betting unit? Keep in mind, I?m not raising or lowering this according to what the current bankroll is and I?m not playing more than 5 or 6 games max in a sport such as baseball which is being played on pretty much a daily basis.
If you?re going higher than this per play, maybe it?s ok, but if you?re varying the % upwards of 5% or even higher AND playing a ton of games, you could go broke in no time at all?.You DON?T want to be losing 30, 40, or 50% of your bankroll in one day if you?re doing this to make money. The 2% should give you enough ?cushion? to cover the worst of streaks if you ever have a really bad one.
Keep in mind, my thinking is based on what?s going to make more for my money than what any other investment is over the approximate 6 month period such as the sport of baseball. For example, using the 2% per play system, if you start with $5000 and play for $100 per game and when all is said and done you end up 25 ?betting units?, you basically just made $2500 or 50% in just 6 months. Where else do you have the chance to make that much off your money in such a short time? Also, if when you hit any dreaded losing skids during the season, you?re not going to panic or chase your losses. It would take you to be down around 45 ?betting Units? considering the average line is ?110 to bankrupt your bankroll. In other words, you could be having a dreadful season and be down say 30 units, and still be comfortable betting the same amount. Basically, if you know what you?re doing when capping, limiting each play to around 2% will ensure that you make your money in the end, especially if your capping the games out right. If you go bankrupt using this system over the course of a long season such as baseball or basketball, you?re doing something wrong in handicapping the games and you shouldn?t be betting any serious $$ if making money is what you want
Once again, betting smaller or at a higher % is fine, but keep in mind I?m talking from the standpoint of actually making a high % off my money and doing it so over time. Way too many people want to get rich in one day, or week, or even a month and that?s not how it?s done seriously. There?s such a fine line in the difference in winning percentages of the professional vs the public player or normal sports fan betting that you have to accept the fact that there?s going to be times and lengths of times of winnings and losing streaks, but the ones that end up in the end are the ones that consistently cap the games right and consistently use proper money management. It?s surely is possible to get rich quick in sports betting, but you?re going to be taking a lot more chances and you?re going to be using either no money management or money management far more aggressive than what I?ve just talked about. If you, opt for that thinking you have to accept the consequences if things don?t turn out. Remember one key think: The reason you handicap and use good money management is to take the ?gambling? out of sports betting. If you don?t do the work and try to take risk loading up on a certain so called ?lock?, you are putting the ?gamble? back in sports betting.
As for parlays, I?ve had a big change in thinking over the last year or two. GSP talks in his thread about parlaying some and he was actually one of the guys that actually changed my thinking on this to a degree when we talked last year. Basically, if you are hitting a high enough % that actually wins in a sport, you can actually maximize your money even more by parlaying those games. Also, keep in mind, if doing this, you may want to drop the % of your bankroll that you are playing on each game, maybe even down to 1% per play.
Keep in mind, this is just what works well for me. Not saying it?s the best, but thought I?d share.
Good luck.
-ndnfan
grt stuff ndn.......I couldn't have said it better, you need to bet 2% or thereabouts to ride through losing streaks, Ive read it, and know it, yet I still had problems adhering to it until recently. The fact is no matter what you or anyone says, squares and idiots will continue to line books pockets by loading up on monday night football, or the last game of the week to get even with their locals, it's why the books still take action, I can't imagine they win because the games are impossible to pick, it's more b/c of players lack of discipline overrall, Of course some people do it for a living, and for that they should be commended, it takes a special person with special discipline and endurance and brain power to do so
Mike
Mike
I play a similar way and I really like that system, ndnfan. I play a lower number of plays and generally I start with 1 of 25 units rather than 1 of 50 units. The difference is I don't pay juice on dogs generally so I risk less. I also generally stick to 3 plays tops per day and on most days 2 plays. I have to say it is quite risky to have only a 25 unit cushion but in my opinon it fits better for a person who is more selective with their plays and plays fewer plays per day.
Ahhh.......one of my favorite subjects. Great stuff so far guys. If there was one piece of advice I could give a sportsbettor, it would be the following: Proper money management will make up for periods of poor handicapping and/or bad luck. NOTHING will make up for poor money management.
If you don't have a proper money management routine in place (whatever your style may be) you will lose. Period.
Finding the style that is right for you can be a difficult process and alot of it depends upon your expectations. Are you a professional looking to make a significant profit? Are you a casual bettor looking for entertainment who just wants to stay in the game? Either way, find a system that you are comfortable with and STICK TO IT. Definately easier said than done, but with discipline, can be accomplished.
If you don't have a proper money management routine in place (whatever your style may be) you will lose. Period.
Finding the style that is right for you can be a difficult process and alot of it depends upon your expectations. Are you a professional looking to make a significant profit? Are you a casual bettor looking for entertainment who just wants to stay in the game? Either way, find a system that you are comfortable with and STICK TO IT. Definately easier said than done, but with discipline, can be accomplished.
