more useful info.....

[gardenweasel]

pulled from an enemy site...

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Looking at 27 bowl games last year, here is a quick breakdown...

Underdogs went 14-11-1 ATS overall

Of the games played on New Years Day or later, the Underdogs went 2-6 ATS.

Of the games played prior to New Years, the Underdogs went 12-5 ATS.

of the 14 Underdogs that had ATS wins last bowl season, 11 won outright.

Double-digit Underdogs went 3-2 ATS, with 2 winning outright.

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over the last four years:

all dogs ATS: 66-34-2 +28.6 units

December dogs: 50-18-2 +30.2 units
January dogs: 16-16-0 -1.6 units

 

[Scott4USC]

Thanks for the info. Very interesting and helpful. Good Luck this Bowl Season gardenweasel.

 

[gardenweasel]

thanks,bud

thanks,bud

g.l. to the trojans.....

 

[gardenweasel]

i`m bumping this

i`m bumping this

not because it`s my thread or because i need the attention(i didn`t do the analysis,i stole it)......

but,because there appears to be a clear trend evolving over the last 4 or 5 years....

i really believe the average guy is basically drawn to the favorites in bowl games and that maybe,the lines are posted a little high to balance the action out a bit(i know more than one guy that rolls out of bed,picks up a paper and makes his plays)........

now,it`s possible every favorite will win leading up to jan. 1ST......

but,the info is interesting,if nothing else....

i`m playing every dog small up to the first of the year(i don`t need to get crushed this late in the game)....and a few that look very interesting,i`ll play moneylines on....

of course,this could all blow up in my face....you never know...that`s why i`m playing small....

g.l.

 

[DCPlayer]

Great Info Weas!!
Thanks and good luck this bowl season..,......

 

[AR182]

gw,

thanks for the info.

good luck this bowl season.

 

[Felonious Monk]

The theory is to play the dogs before 1/1 and faves after. I actually looked back at each bowl season since the advent of the BCS in 1998 and this would have been a profitable strategy each year. Overall, the dogs have covered at a 69% clip in pre Jan. 1st bowl games (ranging from 62.5% to an incredible 80% in any individual year), which is far above the 52.5% needed to break even and probably better than the lifetime record of any college football handicapper on record. The trend does not seem to be weakening over time either. As for the favorites covering in Jan. 1st and later bowl games, at 55% the trend was probably not statistically significant enough over 52.5% to make it worth playing.

Of course, that makes it tougher on me tonight because I'm rolling with Memphis.