Most truthful post I have ever read on this site???

[maverick2112]

By yyz posted a few weeks ago Sports wagering continues to be a losing proposition for EVERYONE!
That's right.......EVERYONE.

I don't wanty to hear how you made money all your life on this shit, because the fact remains.......you haven't. I don't want to hear that I am full of sour grapes, because I can't win, so I am 'bashing' others. The bottom line is that you can't win doing this!

I look at the recent melt down of Nolan as a good point of reference. A couple of seasons back, he was thought of as a god. Now.....he questions his own existence! Look at the beating Ray is taking. Wins, come, and wins go, but wins don't just keep coming.

I am a firm believer that a person can go an extended runs, where they will have a nice turn of fortune. That is what happens with "good handicappers". I have been at sites like this for over four years, and have yet to find one single poster who has stood the test of time! You can write all the shit you want about how, "Yeah.....I've made money at this for 20 years", and I will say again:

"You are full of shit!"

This game is not about skill, but like any other form of gambling, it is about luck. You can handicap all night long, and be dead balls on cortrect in your assessment of the game, and have a blown call cost you the cash. You can be perfect in your reasoning, and have a punt blocked for a spread cover the wrong way. Don't tell me about your fuhking skills as a capper.

Nolan puts in more work, and sees more spin and angles than anyone I have ever seen, and he can't break .500 the past 12 months. Why? Is he losing his edge? Is he getting lazy? I don't think so. I think the odds are catching up to him, as they do with all of us.

No matter how much knowledge you incorporate into these games, they will almost NEVER go as you planed! Penalties, missed calls, bad calls, missed extra points, bad reads, etc. You do not handicap that shit, and there is no way that you ever could. For Christ's sake, guys have had game FIXED, and still lost! That should tell you all something!!!!

I know a lot of you guys will say that you are up 200 units on the year, haven't paid the man in weeks, blah, blah, blah.....who cares? ........You are lucky. Look at those wins, and tell me how many game panned out the way you drew it up? Not too fuhking many, I'll guarentee that! You need a ton of luck in this game, and that is why so many guys have records around the .500 mark. Plain and simple.

There will always be times when a game does go the way you figured it would, and those times feel terrific. But, for the most part, you have to admit that you felt "robbed", or "lucky" after a game is over.

I think the more games you play, the worse you will do over time. Juice, and a .500 record, don't mix.

Over any season or two, I think a guy can do some damage, other than that, the books eventually balance out, and you will get taking to the cleaners, IMO. Again, you can claim this thread to be the rant of a loser, but I see the same story on every board I have ever been to. A shit load of guys with .500 records, bowing to the 'freak of the week', until he goes sour, and then they look for a new hero.

We have had our Raymonds, Fletchers, Nolans, et al, but there is not a soul on one of these boards whom you can blindly follow, and watch your money grow. That beast don't exist, fellas.

Gambling on sports will never pay the rent, and that is your lock of the year.

After wagering day to day for the past 4 years.......I cant help but keep reading this over and over and realize how much truth there is to this.............

 

[GlobalTrance]

Maverick2112 , I don't know you , so , i'm assuming your opening this up for discussion? In my world it's "ok" to dis-agree, i hope the same holds true in yours . That being said , I respectfully dis-agree with you & yyz . There are some here who do VERY well , no names as to not put anyone on the spot or leave someone out. Yes , they have streaks like any stock traded on the exchange , bottom line is , what does the ledger look like at the end of the "fisal" year ? There are winners here : wheather they succeed by "slight" variations in their unit size of straight flat unit betting , it can be done . As a side note , long before the internet , I knew a guy in vegas , he used to run a sportsbook out there. He quit to pursue sportsbetting full-time . I was around for about 5 years before I left , he was winners and never got a job . As far as I know he's still betting full-time . Now , as for what it takes to be successful ? If I had all the answers I wouldn't have a job , but I do believe it can be done , I have seen it done . Be well and have fun . GT

 

[theGibber1]

lol

the mating call of the looser..

you might want to ask kc wolf how hes done over the long term..

as far as nolan.. hes been doing this twice as long as anyone here.. i think he is entitled to a down season or two.. but i bet over the long term he has picked winners..

Penalties, missed calls, bad calls, missed extra points, bad reads, etc. You do not handicap that shit, and there is no way that you ever could.

NO SHIT!!!
this is exactly right! this is also expected.. if these things didnt happen you could win 95% of your games.. but they do happen sometimes and thats why 52% to 55% is more realistic.. 54% isnt great but its enough to make $$$$$$$$$$$

i am somewhat of a new capper when comparing to some others in here.. so how my long term will work out i dont know..
but out of 5yrs ive been capping seriously.. ive had two loosing seasons.. my first two..

 

[TheShrimp]

The "meltdown of Nolan"?

Assuming he made all those angle bets, he cleaned up this NFL season. He started off cleaning up on college hoops with a new system till he got pissed at some of the criticism.

Dunno if that's why he's skedaddled or if its some other reason, but I don't think he's been going through a meltdown.

 

[yyz]

Let's bring the old shit back to the front page, I guess........

This was all handled, checked, re-checked, lauded, panned, etc. I don't know why it needs to come back around.

Shrimp,

The "meltdown" occured in one of Nolan's articles, where he said, "fuhk it!" I didn't conjure that up.

Gibber,

We went 'round and 'round on this before in the other thread, but I stand by it as strongly today, as I did two month ago.

KCWolf is a great poster, as are raymond and fletcher. I give them credit for doing what they do, without blowing their brains out!

But, as pay services, you can check out their plays at bestbettor.

I have to assume that since they chose that site to be their monitor, these are the plays they give out. That being said, they are 51%, 51%, and 50%, and all well in the hole. They are being "juiced" to death. Just like I said. That 10% will always be the axe, chipping away at your oaks.

Again.......as stated in the original post.

Show me someone, posting on these boards for ANY length of time, who is a consistant winner?

I am not going to get into another pissing match over this issue, but the longer sites like this exist, the more you will see the players fall back to .500

Good luck to everyone, and I hope you all hit winners!

 

[TheShrimp]

oh -- i thought the original poster meant a capping meltdown, which I didn't think happened.

whether he melted down psychologically or whatever, I'm not going to comment based on stuff at a website. i didn't read much of the other thread beyond my post (if I'm even thinking of the right one) so I don't really know where it went. I agreed with you mostly in that thread, I believe.

 

[StevieD]

I am convinced that money can be made doing this. I only have been doing it a short time, still learning the business. I do think though that it is a lot more than just handicapping that makes a winner. I know we all have our own opinions and experiences but I think this is a good conversation to have
I would like to know what kind of money management everyone uses. I am doing mostly flat betting myself but I am doing good with a parlay experiment I am running. I know parlays are supposed to be the Angel of Death but.....
I enjoyed Nolans articles and I like to read of angles and theories rather than The Raiders will kill the Bucs because no one can stop the Raider offense type of stuff.

and ACE it was a Hell of a run!

 

[goldcupsports]

Talking in regards to records you are judging these guys on incomplete seasons. For instance NFL and college football plays are not the complete amount of plays sent out by kcwolf. Those are listed @ his site.


Full Season of NFL 89-74 (54.6%)+13.71
Full Season of College Football- 72-60 (54.50%) 72-60 +32.00


Now grant you down in NBA & NHL and slightly up in college hoops this year. But once again the seasons is far from over.

Bestbettor has in complete records of kcwolf's site in regards to football. Hockey there is only money lines so that is where some of the difference lies as in records... Not trying to defend anyone in this situation but IMHO you must be a judge of a capper over several years in the same sport. Plus fletcher and Kcwolf have been at this less than a year I believe. Just some food for thought...

 

[maverick2112]

Show me someone, posting on these boards for ANY length of time, who is a consistant winner?

This is the biggest problem I have having..............I have yet to see anyone (when posting their records consistently win yr after year.
I really think KC is by far one of the best cappers out there.
With all the knowledge KC has at this.............if he cant show a profit for the year and according to my #'s he is down roughly 65 units(so far) without ncaa foots added in(I cant find them)............doesnt this lead to yyz being dead right about this. Sure some people can have great years but in the long haul I just really wonder if this can be beaten. Now i watched KC win over like 200 units in baseball the last few years but maybe baseball can be beaten and these other sports cannot?????? If that is the case maybe we should all only bet baseball.

I am not writing this to argue with anyone, I am just curious if any one is really winning over the long haul. I have a lot of friends who gamble and one thing they all have in common is "you always hear about the winning plays and never hear much about the losing plays..........most bettors just dont want to admit how much $$$ they have lost, but they sure will tell you how much they have won..(IMO)......I will say I have lost a lot more than I have ever won at this. Has anyone besides me thought that this venture may just be impossible to conquer........I hear some of you say that it can be done but when push comes to shove not many can show the proof..............

 

[maverick2112]

Gibber...........

you might want to ask kc wolf how hes done over the long term..

How about answering this for us????? and another question?

How have you done over the long run??????

 

[theGibber1]

How have you done over the long run??????

i ve only been seriously capping for over 5 yrs almost six..
so i dont know if that counts as long term

my 1st two yrs i lost money... lots of money.. then i learned from kc wolf and his betting tactics along with some money management, and not to chase! after that i havent had a loosing season since.. not sure if i count though cause i dont cap all year or every sport..

football and college hoops are about it.. dipped into baseball a bit last season...i did ok but i didnt like it much..

as far as how im doing.. well ill put it this way.. after the season i had in football i will most likely take the basketball off for the most part..


GL

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

maverick..yyz..i believe .your thoughts hold true for the major majority of cappers...but i do believe that there is a certain percentage of cappers who do win on a consistent basis.
look at glibbers nfl record this yr....unbelievable success rate...im anxious to follow him next year.....also, nolans halftime angles were excellent money makers.....or madjacks baseball plays.....granted these 3-examples are from 1- season....but it was proven that it can be done, right before your eyes.
yes, 1-season doesnt make a lifetime , but these 3 examples provide hope for all.

1-thing that i have noticed....and i feel backs up your theory pretty good....that is, that the majority of cappers here and everywhere else, dont post their record....i would guess that most cappers dont want to post a losing record..me, i dont care, i post mine, good or bad.


i think that most bettors.....just bet to bet....for the action....this alone wipes out 95% of us.
one thing that kills alot of cappers...is to many plays ....i see everyone do it....a capper, needs to know his strenghts and acknowledge his weaknesses....and be very cautious with his plays.....me, im still in the learning process....learn something new everyday....and ive been at this for 20-yrs....i think ive got to the point were i can just about hold my own....i can bet and not lose my ass each week....to me, this is 1-helluva an accomplishment. after my 1st 10 yrs. of losing .....ive finally got to the point that i can break even or win some on consistent basis....would like to get to the next level...will take more time and learning to get there, but i think its something that can be done with hardwork and some caution and intelligence.

my feelings are that it is wrong for you to state that EVERYONE loses....i believe there are cappers out there who do win over the long haul granted its not many, but there out there.

gluck to you, burgh.

 

[Pfrad]

There are many stories of prominant gamblers, one that comes to mind is Roxy Roxborough and his baseball totals, using barometric pressures . Then theres the guy everyone knows lost his wife, business, dog... like a bad country and western tune, I think we all look to make the big dollars, perhaps the true sports better is infact an invester, only the wins and loses are almost instantanious, there are systems however they change, as do the sports, the intellect says to manage the money wisely ( Im still learning this part), however the lure of money is one of greatest lures of all .


Is it your form of entertainment, or is it your life?

 

[maverick2112]

Gibber....First off congrats if you had a good football season...No offense but in your post you dont really say if you are up or down since you started. Then you say........

then i learned from kc wolf and his betting tactics along with some money management,

These tactics and $$ mgmt dont seem to be working this year.......

I have been thinking about this for a few weeks. And I figured out a real world scenario that relates to this..

I once had a old gentlemen tell me that the best way to be successful at something was to study a person who is successful at what you want to learn..........now relate this to capping.....sure you can study what someone does but the problem lies in what they have done this year(if successful) probably wont work year after year..............

Also I notice people posting about time and learning being a factor.........are you kidding me............if that were true all the good handicappers would be the older handicappers. To really learn something I always thought you had to study and observe but in reality that doesnt work in this game......

but i do believe that there is a certain percentage of cappers who do win on a consistent basis

Show me who these guys are????Why dont a lot of the services post their YTD records at their sites?? At least KC win or lose shows his record.........

 

[ferdville]

When I was full into horses, I met perhaps 2 or maybe even 3 guys that to my knowledge had consistantly made money at the horses. I stopped going to the track years ago because I found it too hard to win, so I don't know if these people are still winning or if they are dead broke. I can tell you one thing - and I think Fletcher has said the same. The life of a so-called professional gambler is far from glamerous. The guys I knew spent at least 80 hours per week either at the track or working on figures. I don't know about you, but five years ago I took a huge pay cut in order to work far less hours weekly. I don't care if I could make a living betting horses, 80 hour weeks are not for me. Not only were the hours long, but you really couldn't take a vacation. If you didn't keep up to date with figures, it would take you forever to catch up when vacation time was over. In addition, they had horses they were waiting for so even if gone, had to pay attention to the entries every day of the year. So goes the life of a professional handicapper at the track. There are a few groups that used to make money with the Pick Sixes for years. But these groups wee willing to toss 20-30k into the pool when they thought they had a strong card. In additionm they would buy up tickets from people that had hit the first 3 or 4 winners. I was in a group that hit Pick 6 tickets worth 102,000; 96,000; 52,000 and many smaller. That was before the big money groups took over and made it impossible for the normal players to hit the Pick 6. We didn't lose it all back; we lost it on a business investment! Certainly there are those that make money in many forms of gambling on a regular basis. They are also the exception and not the rule. I also have a good friend that makes between 10k and 40k on a regular basis playing cards. But this isn't the sole source of his income.

 

[fletcher]

mine is right on front page mav week by week since day 1 not to hard to find.

 

[theGibber1]

No offense but in your post you dont really say if you are up or down since you started. Then you say........

ok, i wasnt going to toot my own horn..

yes i am up.. way up... counting the money i lost the first two years i am probably almost triple what i started with.. ..( which isnt much)

These tactics and $$ mgmt dont seem to be working this year.......

106-61-4 this NFL season

not counting the 3-0 +20units for the super bowl pick

college football was also profitable for me but you might have to go back through the forums a bit for the record.. but it is there and it is positive.

yes i am a successful gambler..

do i do this for a living NO!
i gamble with a small amount of money compared to some.. an average of about $250 a bet
could i do it for a living.?? i think so but the amount of work and stress it would entail id rather work a real job.. not to mention to live off of it you must cap all year round wich i dont dont..

does this answer your questions...

sorry to sound curt but it sounds a little like your busting my balls..

you and yyz keep telling me i cant make money doing this when the proof is in the pudding...

i post my records now.. most dont..

what do i have to do show you my bank accounts??

 

[hellah10]

Iam yet to have a losing season in MAC football or basketball :shrug:

 

[ChrryBlstr]

*LOL* @ gibb!!!

sure....why not....show me your bank account, brother....HA HA HA HA....*LOL*




hellah:

you 'da MAC man....well....when it comes to sports, anyways....*L*

 

[hellah10]

hellah:

you 'da MAC man....well....when it comes to sports, anyways....*L*

ssssiiiigggghhhh Iam STILL working on the ladies