Boise State is playing at home in the MPC Computers Bowl, and that's a good thing. The Broncos have won 31 straight at Bronco Stadium, but Boston College is more than capable of getting the victory.
Boise State Offense vs. Boston College Defense
Boise State has run more than it has thrown but it's a fairly balanced offense that is designed to keep defenses guessing by using a number of different formations, personnel groupings and pre-snap shifts. One of the reasons the Broncos can be so versatile is their use of H-backs, which can line up at receiver and tight end, as well as in the backfield. Boise State also likes to pull its backside offensive linemen and run misdirection. This plays to the strength of RBs Lee Marks and Ian Johnson, as they are quick through the hole and do a fairly good job of reading their blocks. It's an offense that will force Boston College's defense to play with great discipline. However, it's important to note that the Eagles are well coached and they don't make a lot of mistakes.
Keeping explosive LDE Mathias Kiwanuka out of the backfield will be one of the Broncos' biggest priorities when QB Jared Zabransky drops back to pass. Kiwanuka explodes off the line and he has the athletic ability to slip blocks. Boise State will try to neutralize him in three ways. The first is running max-protect schemes that keep extra blockers in to help ROT Ryan Clady, the second is running some screens and the third is using hard counts.
Boston College Offense vs. Boise State Defense
Boston College significantly improves its chances of winning this game if it can control the clock and limit the Broncos' opportunities to put points on the board. Establishing an effective running game is critical as a result. That won't be easy against a Boise State run defense that is giving up an average of just 3.4 yards per carry, but there's reason to believe Boston College will have success. The Eagles can afford to run early and often because of their backfield depth. L.V. Whitworth splits carries with Andre Callender and the Eagles even give OLB Brian Toal the occasional short-yardage carry. In addition, the offensive line has a substantial size advantage over the Broncos' defensive line. Since all three backs run with good power, Boston College is capable of wearing Boise State down.
QB Matt Ryan makes the sixth start of his career in the unfriendly confines of Bronco Stadium, where Boise State has won its last 31 games. With that in mind, expect a conservative Eagles' passing attack that's predicated on getting receivers the ball underneath and allowing them to produce after the catch. WR Will Blackmon in particular is a dangerous open-field runner.
Special Teams
Boise State PR/KOR Quinton Jones has more than 1,000 return yards this year and he has returned two punts for touchdowns. In addition, Marks has returned a kickoff for a touchdown so Boston College's cover units cannot afford to make any mistakes. Broncos PK Anthony Montgomery has been inconsistent at best and there is some concern about his ability to come through if the game is on the line. P Kyle Stringer had a strong regular season, averaging 42 yards per punt and placing eight of his 46 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
While he hasn't been as productive as Jones this year, the Eagles' Will Blackmon is an outstanding return man as well. Boston College has used two place kickers and neither has been particularly impressive. Ryan Ohliger has connected on 7-of-12 field goal attempts and William Troost has connected on two of his four attempts. P Johnny Ayers is averaging 41.2 yards per punt and he has placed 18 of his 54 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. However, he has also had three of his punts blocked.
Three Key Individual Matchups
1. Boise State ROT Ryan Clady vs. Boston College LDE Mathias Kiwanuka
2. Boston College WR Will Blackmon vs. Boise State DC Orlando Scandrick
3. Boston College OC Pat Ross vs. Boise State MLB Korey Hall
Scouts' Edge
Boise State has effectively been unbeatable at home, but Boston College should end that streak and win its sixth consecutive bowl game. The Eagles are a well-coached and disciplined team that will do a better job of defending the Broncos' versatile and efficient offense than most teams. Ryan's lack of experience in big games is obviously reason for concern but Boston College has the size up front and the depth in the backfield to take pressure off him. It's also worth noting that Boise State head coach Dan Hawkins is expected to replace Gary Barnett at Colorado and that could become a distraction.
Prediction: Boston College 24, Boise State 21
Boise State Offense vs. Boston College Defense
Boise State has run more than it has thrown but it's a fairly balanced offense that is designed to keep defenses guessing by using a number of different formations, personnel groupings and pre-snap shifts. One of the reasons the Broncos can be so versatile is their use of H-backs, which can line up at receiver and tight end, as well as in the backfield. Boise State also likes to pull its backside offensive linemen and run misdirection. This plays to the strength of RBs Lee Marks and Ian Johnson, as they are quick through the hole and do a fairly good job of reading their blocks. It's an offense that will force Boston College's defense to play with great discipline. However, it's important to note that the Eagles are well coached and they don't make a lot of mistakes.
Keeping explosive LDE Mathias Kiwanuka out of the backfield will be one of the Broncos' biggest priorities when QB Jared Zabransky drops back to pass. Kiwanuka explodes off the line and he has the athletic ability to slip blocks. Boise State will try to neutralize him in three ways. The first is running max-protect schemes that keep extra blockers in to help ROT Ryan Clady, the second is running some screens and the third is using hard counts.
Boston College Offense vs. Boise State Defense
Boston College significantly improves its chances of winning this game if it can control the clock and limit the Broncos' opportunities to put points on the board. Establishing an effective running game is critical as a result. That won't be easy against a Boise State run defense that is giving up an average of just 3.4 yards per carry, but there's reason to believe Boston College will have success. The Eagles can afford to run early and often because of their backfield depth. L.V. Whitworth splits carries with Andre Callender and the Eagles even give OLB Brian Toal the occasional short-yardage carry. In addition, the offensive line has a substantial size advantage over the Broncos' defensive line. Since all three backs run with good power, Boston College is capable of wearing Boise State down.
QB Matt Ryan makes the sixth start of his career in the unfriendly confines of Bronco Stadium, where Boise State has won its last 31 games. With that in mind, expect a conservative Eagles' passing attack that's predicated on getting receivers the ball underneath and allowing them to produce after the catch. WR Will Blackmon in particular is a dangerous open-field runner.
Special Teams
Boise State PR/KOR Quinton Jones has more than 1,000 return yards this year and he has returned two punts for touchdowns. In addition, Marks has returned a kickoff for a touchdown so Boston College's cover units cannot afford to make any mistakes. Broncos PK Anthony Montgomery has been inconsistent at best and there is some concern about his ability to come through if the game is on the line. P Kyle Stringer had a strong regular season, averaging 42 yards per punt and placing eight of his 46 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
While he hasn't been as productive as Jones this year, the Eagles' Will Blackmon is an outstanding return man as well. Boston College has used two place kickers and neither has been particularly impressive. Ryan Ohliger has connected on 7-of-12 field goal attempts and William Troost has connected on two of his four attempts. P Johnny Ayers is averaging 41.2 yards per punt and he has placed 18 of his 54 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. However, he has also had three of his punts blocked.
Three Key Individual Matchups
1. Boise State ROT Ryan Clady vs. Boston College LDE Mathias Kiwanuka
2. Boston College WR Will Blackmon vs. Boise State DC Orlando Scandrick
3. Boston College OC Pat Ross vs. Boise State MLB Korey Hall
Scouts' Edge
Boise State has effectively been unbeatable at home, but Boston College should end that streak and win its sixth consecutive bowl game. The Eagles are a well-coached and disciplined team that will do a better job of defending the Broncos' versatile and efficient offense than most teams. Ryan's lack of experience in big games is obviously reason for concern but Boston College has the size up front and the depth in the backfield to take pressure off him. It's also worth noting that Boise State head coach Dan Hawkins is expected to replace Gary Barnett at Colorado and that could become a distraction.
Prediction: Boston College 24, Boise State 21
