Must read..How books make second half line

[aldabra]

Saw this at another site. too good to not pass this on..long read
but good info.....





BobbyAWS
Senior Member

Registered: Jun 2001
Location: Curacao
Posts: 905
Bobby's Halftime Cookbook, chapters 1-4
I've been doing OK with halftime bets, and someone asked me how I arrived at my selections. Here's how:

First, I make my number. Then I see what number the books put out. If we're off by more than a point or so, I've got a play.

Before we go into how I make MY numbers, we must first look at how the books arrive at THEIR numbers. Their way is much simpler, and can be summed up in one sentence:

They look at their Don Best screen, and copy the numbers from CRIS and Olympic.

That's how much thought they put into their opening number. ZERO. Mindless copying. They don't know how to discern a bad number from the good ones, so they don't even try. So if CRIS or Olympic makes a bad number, the industry just follows along mindlessly, and can be exploited.

But a mistake by either of these influential books also affects the *other's* line. If Olympic says Pick, and CRIS says -2, then ONE of them has a bad number. And each book, aware of the other's number, will start to lean into each other, in an effort to thwart players who are looking for middles. In our example, Olympic might go to -? or -1, without taking a bet (why give a middler "pick" when he'll happily take -??); and CRIS would come down to -1? or -1.

If they don't eventually arrive at the same number before taking a bet, they will be further pressured by the smart shoppers. The favorite bettors will avoid CRIS' higher number, and bet at Olympic. The dog bettors will pass on Oly's lower number, and bet CRIS'. Neither book will get the balanced action they strive for, and will adjust their numbers. Of course, these adjustments bring the numbers still closer together.

The point is, ONE of these books had a better opening number than the other, but moved AWAY from the right side, and TOWARDS the wrong side.

I've strayed from the topic already? Sorry.

OK then, how do CRIS and Olympic arrive at their (the industry's) opening numbers?

They consider the current score, and the game's pointspread. This puts the Halftime in one of the following catagories:

--Favorite is winning, but not covering
--Favorite is winning, and the current lead is about the same size as the game's spread
--Favorite is winning by more than the spread
--Favorite is winning by MUCH more than the spread (about double)
--Favorite is winning by MUCH more than double the spread
--Game is tied
--Dog is winning by less than the spread
--Dog is winning by about the spread
--Dog is winning by more than the spread
--Dog is winning by MUCH more than the spread

Thought this was going to be easy, huh? I warned you that this would be an "epic".

(Just remember, this "cookbook" comes with no guarantees. It's what I've been using, and it's been working for a VERY short time. It's very possible that I've just been getting lucky.)

Let's take them one by one, starting with the easiest.

THE GAME IS TIED. In general, the favorite should be favored in the second half, and the line should be about 2/3 of the game's spread. EXAMPLE: Duke is favored by -7? over North Carolina. If the game is tied, the halftime line should be Duke -5.

If the spread is very small (-1, -1?, -2), it's OK to make the HT line the same as the game line.

If the spread is very large (say, -20 or higher), then the HT line should be LESS than two-thirds. Obviously, the big favorite didn't bring their A-game if they haven't pulled away from the 20-point dog yet. In these cases, the number should be a little more than HALF the game's spread.

Got it? Don't read any further if you don't. Go back and read the last 3 paragraphs again. It only gets more complicated from here. If you decide to go no further, then "Thanks for playing." For the rest of you, the next easiest catagorie is:

FAVORITE IS WINNING BY ABOUT HALF THE SPREAD (within a point). This one's easy. If Duke's favored by -7?, and they've got a 4-point lead at the half, what should the second-half line be?

If you said, "Duke -3?", you win! And if the book offers "Duke -2", you've got a play!

Simply put, the second half line SHOULD be half of the game's spread, unless the score dictates an adjustment. When the first half bets "land on the number", there is absolutely no reason to come back in the HT with a different number.

If the first half number misses, then you need to adjust. If it missed by a little, you only adjust a little.

Let's take a 12-point favorite:

If fav is winning by 6, HT # should be 6 (duh).
If fav is winning by 7, HT # should be 5? (not 5!).
If fav is winning by 5, HT # should be 6? (not 7!).

If the current lead is any other number, then we will not address it here in the "about half the spread" catagorie.

There's one more "easy" catagorie:

FAVORITE IS WINNING BY EXACTLY THE GAME SPREAD. If it's a small spread (-1 or -2), make the second half pick'em. For most spreads, use a number that is 1/3 of the game's spread. In our "Duke -7?" example, if Duke is winning by 7 or 8 at halftime, the HT line should be Duke -2?.

Why shouldn't the HT *always* be pick'em if the game's on the number now? Because if they want Duke, they're going to have to lay something. Laying half the game's spread is a little heavy; one-third is about right.

**********

If anybody is still reading this, and actually paying attention to the numbers, just post here, and I'll type up the rest of this. But if I've already lost everybody, there's no sense in typing any further.

Bobby

PART TWO STARTS NEXT POST################.

 

[aldabra]

PART TWO

PART TWO

Senior Member

Registered: Jun 2001
Location: Curacao
Posts: 905
Bobby's HT Cookbook (conclusion)
We were discussing how I make my halftime lines in basketball.

When making the number, we first must determine the games current situation, which would be one of the following ten scenarios:

1. Favorite is winning, but not covering
2. Favorite is winning, and the current lead is about the same size as the game's spread
3. Favorite is winning by more than the spread
4. Favorite is winning by MUCH more than the spread (about double)
5. Favorite is winning by MUCH more than double the spread
6. Game is tied
7. Dog is winning by less than the spread
8. Dog is winning by about the spread
9. Dog is winning by more than the spread
10. Dog is winning by MUCH more than the spread

The easiest ones are 2 and 6. These have been discussed in the afore-mentioned post.

We also started on 1. We said that if the lead is exactly half the spread, use the same number in the HT as you used in the first half. If the lead is a point off of that, adjust by ?-point in the HT. In fact, if it's MORE than one point off that, you can adjust ?-point each. Using a 10-point favorite for example:

If leading by 5, HT is -5.
If leading by 4, HT is -5? (not 6).
If leading by 3, HT is -6.
If leading by 2, HT is -6? (though I may go to 7; we're getting into the "game is tied" neighborhood).
If leading by 6, HT is -4? (not 4).
If leading by 7, HT is -4.
If leading by 8, HT is -3? (though I may go to 3 here; we're approaching "fav winning by exactly the spread of the game").

FAVORITE IS WINNING BY DOUBLE THE SPREAD. Usually, make it pick'em. This game's over, the dog *knows* it's over, and the fav's scrubs will see a lot of second half action.

If the spread was large, you can make the fav -1 or -2. Duke comes to mind again.

If the spread was small, you might make the dog -1 or -2. This was supposed to be a close game, so they may mount a little comeback. And they're not out of it (if the spread was small, then they can't be down by more than 8 or 10 points).

FAVORITE IS WINNING BY MORE THAN DOUBLE THE SPREAD. Make the dog a slight favorite. Big dogs shouldn't be made to lay more than 1 or 2 points. Smaller dogs can lay more. It's never a good idea to make the dog lay more points than the they were GETTING in the game. If they were a 4-point dog at the start of the game, they shouldn't lay more than -4 at halftime (I don't know WHY; it just IS).

FAVORITE IS WINNING BY MORE THAN THE SPREAD (but not double). Fav should be favored in the 2nd half, but barely. Maybe a point or two.

DOG IS WINNING BY ABOUT THE SPREAD. Figure it's a 50/50 proposition that the favorite can *win* this game straight up. Make the line fav minus (lead plus one).

EXAMPLE: Jazz favored over Grizzles by 9, trail by 9 at the half. Make the HT Jazz -10.

Note that this is one of the few scenarios where the favorite should lay MORE in the HT than they were in the game. And not MUCH more. When you see a team laying MUCH MORE in the Halftime than they were in the game, it's a good idea to take the dog (likewise, if you see a dog laying a ton of points at HT, go against them, too).

DOG IS WINNING BY MORE THAN THE SPREAD. Here's your biggest moneymaker. Often, the books will use the old "lead plus one" rule *here*, too. I prefer to use the game's spread again; MAYBE shade it up apoint or so, but not always.

EXAMPLE: Jazz, favored over Grizzles by 9, trail by 13 at the half. HT should be Jazz -9 or -10. If your book goes crazy and puts up a -12 or -13, you've found a play.

DOG IS WINNING BY *MUCH* MORE THAN THE SPREAD. This one's a toughie, because you almost never see it. If the fav's getting blown out, you've still got to favor them in the second half (expect a scathing halftime speech by the coach), but I don't think the HT number should be as high as the game's spread. Maybe half of the game's spread. If the game's spread isn't too high (which means the fav still has a chance to pull out a straight-up win), I might go 2/3 the spread.

EXAMPLES: Jazz, favored by 9, trail Grizzles by 18. I think I'd make the Jazz -5 here. Maybe -5?.

Maryland, favored over UNC by 7?, trails by 14. I'd make Maryland about -5 here.

DOG WINNING BY LESS THAN THE SPREAD. Fav should be about 2/3 the game's line.

That does it. I'll post a quiz after a while, after you guys have had time to digest this.

One last thing: sometimes, a situation will fall somewhere in between two or more of the above scenarios. If a 1-point favorite is winning by 2, is that "right on the number", "more than the number", or "double the number"? Use some judgement.

Hope this helps.

Bobby

THANKS TO BOBBY>>>

 

[cooz3]

nice read....interesting stuff...thanks for this post...

one question ....give me an example of a dog winning by less than the spread...

if a dog is winning isnt it covering the number?

cooz

 

[superbook]

Thanks for posting this. Great reading. Very informative.


- Jon

 

[hellah10]

great stuff, thanks

 

[aldabra]

good question Cooz

good question Cooz

Taking some time to digest all the info...

 

[Loser]

cooz...

cooz...

Say the gm line is 7 and the dog is winning at the half by 4, yes the dog is covering outright and won the 1H. The 2H line should be fav -5 to expect a showing by the fav in the 2H. If the odds make puts out anything lower or half the gm line you got a play on the fav.

 

[redking]

This was very imformative but what about actually watching the game(s) and seeing who is hot and cold and who's in foul trouble? This is especially important in college basketball...

I remember a couple of weeks ago Hellah10 had his GOY on a half-time pick because the favorite (Akron -2 ??) was trailing because their top players got early fouls. He hit that half-time pick easy. :shrug:

 

[cooz3]

aldabra..i hope i didnt come off like an assh**le just a legitimate question...as i think this read is an excellent write-up


loser...i understand your point..but even in your example the dog is not only covering the spread ..it is above the spread by 4...im just having a hard time logically thinking how a dog can be covering by less than the spread...it cant be covering if the spread is not atleast being exceeded..

cooz

 

[gman2]

redking:

jmo, but my particular answer to your question would be:

theres something to be said for taking an OBJECTIVE approach to betting a halftime line, as well as taking a SUBJECTIVE approach.

youre definitely right- sometimes, theres no substitute for watching a game and getting a feel for betting the 2h off of what youve seen in the 1h.

other times, you can just read a 2h line, have no real clue as to whats transpired in the 1h, and have success betting the 2h of that game.

i guess its just finding a happy "balance" in both methods and applying both types over the course of time.

most people think books try to steer you one way or the other on a just a full game line.

but theres no doubt (imo) that books try to influence money one way or the other on a 2h line as well, even if the books handle on the game isnt as great. theyre still not gonna hand out freebies.

all in all, sometimes, reading a line can get you the money. other times, theres no substitute for watching the game

 

[aldabra]

no foul..

no foul..

No cooz,I did not take it that way at all....Redking brings up
valid point about watching game and foul trouble etc...same
reasoning goes with football or any sport that has a halftime
betting situation...how many Basketball games have you watched
and one team was getting the shots, just not going in the bucket,
and the other team was getting all the rolls....second half comes along and situation reverses itself....all things being equal; college basketball seems to be a series of hot and cold runs.....

I think poster was trying to get in mind of books and how they
arrive at second half lines...and if you see value, grab it...under the right set of circumstances . I watch game and look before leaping....GLTA