My 2H Betting Strategy

[- FT -]

Just some background for those of you who are interested in understanding my 2H betting...

If I could only show you the hundreds (easily) of spreadsheets I have gone through since I started betting (in 2001), you would think I was formulating a new mathematical theory. I have spent many endless nights (starting in college where I should have been studying for exams or partying) crunching numbers and trying to find an "edge" in this so called game.

After I graduated in 2003, I traded equities for 4 years. That helped tremendously. Learned a lot about risk, money management, psychology, statistics, trending, analyzing data on the fly, etc...didn't need to bet on sports a lot during that time, b/c the rush was fulfilled on a daily basis.

Randercity is a great resource to follow for 2H betting. I remember when I first joined MJ's back in the day, there was a huge 2H team that collaborated to make plays, and Randercity, in my opinion, provided the most insight into his picks. I took a lot of what he said and tested it years later when I started devising my own strategy, for ex:
If Team A shot a low 1H FG%, what was the result in the 2H? Did that vary on the road vs home? Were they well rested or not? What about their opponent---were they well rested, a stud defensive team? How low is low, 1 or 2 standard deviations below their average FG%? If they were winning or losing, how did that effect the results? You get my point...lots of in-depth analysis taking place just from one minor aspect of the game.

From there, I developed what I think to be a fairly complex system that predicts scores and also looks at a multitude of other indicators for a game. It is not static system...just like Vegas gets new information every day, so do I. I am a numbers guy...I really respect the guys who can make plays based on instinct and general take on a game, but every one of my plays is systems driven, there is no human emotion involved. It spits out either "Under" or "N/A". Simple as that. I have been very disciplined about not trying to analyze games on my gut feel (b/c I have made money in the past doing that), and that is not easy to refrain from.

My goal every year is to make money. +1 unit is fine by me. I am not a full time gambler, and hope never to be saturated in such a life. I am fortunate to have a solid job that allows me to set aside $X for a gambling bankroll each season. That money is 100% spent as far as I am concerned on Day 1. At the end of the season, I either make a bonus or I make nothing. Betting for me is purely for entertainment purposes and to satisfy my desire to win (yes, I am extremely competitive by nature).

I will never get into the details of everything that my system looks for, but if there are specific (educated) questions, you never know, I might drop some hints.

Just wanted to get that out there, not trying to self-promote, just clarify and maybe get some good conversation flowing.

Best of luck to all,

FT

 

[77sticks]

Do you play more than 1 unit on certain games?

If so, will you list it when a play hits a certain critera for more money.

I noticed no units after your plays but I would like to know if you are playing one game more than another (if its a bigger play)

 

[- FT -]

Do you play more than 1 unit on certain games?

If so, will you list it when a play hits a certain critera for more money.

I noticed no units after your plays but I would like to know if you are playing one game more than another (if its a bigger play)

Great question...that was the next thing I was going to touch on, money management and bet size. This is a very personal topic, everyone handles money management differently.

Let's start off with the definition of a "unit." A unit is your standard bet size. My personal opinion is that at least 80% of your plays should be 1 unit. 20% (or less) should be either less than a unit, or in some rare cases more than a unit. The point of posting in units is to be on a level playing field with everyone, regardless of the actual amount of $ at risk. Therefore, someone who bets $1000/game can be judged against someone who bets $10/game. The problem is, many people do not understand this, and things become distorted; for example, they post plays between 10 and 50 units (so if they are 2-1, they are up 9 units) instead of converting that 10 unit standard bet to 1 unit (should be up 0.9 units). I equate this to more of an ego and popularity race, who wouldn't want to be up 9 units instead of 0.9?

My second point is around bet variation. I do not ever play more than 1 unit on any play, the reason is simple. If I play 2 units on a game, I am essentially saying that I feel 2 times as likely to win a particular game. To me, this is absolutely not possible. Especially when it comes to the NBA, there is no line movement that is making me 100% more confident in a game. My 1 unit wager amount is very substantial (I feel pain when I lose a bet)...if I felt like I was 2x as confident in some plays, why would I even play my regular bets? I would just load up on the bets that have "2x value" and try to hit a much higher win %. And this is being conservative, many vary on a 1-10x basis; to me, this is just flat out poor money management and looking at this as a "get rich quick scheme" (p.s. it clearly is not). Sure, if every once in a while you want to play 2x on a game because there is less action, or you are attending the game and want to make things more exciting, no problem, but try to keep that at a minimum.

How do I manage my bets?
Starting Bankroll = $X
Every day I calculate 1% of my bankroll and that becomes the standard bet for all games that night.
Re-calculate the bankroll every night, and adjust my bet accordingly the next day.
If I am hot, then my bet size is increasing and hopefully the momentum pays off. If I am cold, then my bet is decreasing and I am not taking as big a cut as if I played every game for the exact same wager all year.

Just my $0.02, let me know if you have any other questions.


FT

 

[Padre]

FT great stuff.

Please do me a favor and get my e-mail from Jack.

Shoot me an email so that i will have urs, would like to add some stuff to ur numbers.

And ur right I too have learned alot from you and randercity, my so cal nieghbor.

Just dont have the time to post HT as I am running numbers and searching books for the best lines, and tend to get my HT in too late.

 

[- FT -]

Padre-

Shot MJ a note, will get in touch with you later today, about to hit a string of meetings.

Take care,

FT

 

[axp59]

I am not a full time gambler, and hope never to be saturated in such a life.

FT,

Very informative and invaluable.

With all due respect. I have a JD, an MBA and a undergraduate degrees in Math and Engineering. I've worked for a Wall Street firm and cosider myself a god fearing and upstanding citizen. I've raise 2 boys one in college and one out. I'm a Marine Corps veteran, don't do drugs, pay my taxes and volunteer my time to local charities and philantrophies.

I hope I didn't take this the wrong way but what do you mean when you say "hope never to be saturated in such a life"? This is my job and my life by choice.

Ax

 

[- FT -]

Ax-

Meant no harm by the comment...my main point was to distinguish this as more of a "game" that I choose to play and a way to keep me intellectually challenged. It's just not MY personal desire to center MY own life (and income) around gambling [at this stage of my life when I am only 29 years old]. Not a hit against you personally or someone who does this professionally, more power to you! Any $ I collect at the end of the day is treated just as a year-end bonus; except I get to watch sports and crunch numbers, two things I love to do, in the process. If I lose money, oh well, just treat it as another expense like my cable bill.

Would love to talk Wall Street with you one day as well...let me know when you make it out to "David Allen Coe" country.

Again, I apologize if my word usage offended you, not my intent.

Take care and good luck,

FT

 

[Mr. Burns78]

Interesting & Impressive.... Keep up the good work buddy... Hell of a job.

BURNS

 

[Theboundbook]

FT,

Very informative and invaluable.

With all due respect. I have a JD, an MBA and a undergraduate degrees in Math and Engineering. I've worked for a Wall Street firm and cosider myself a god fearing and upstanding citizen. I've raise 2 boys one in college and one out. I'm a Marine Corps veteran, don't do drugs, pay my taxes and volunteer my time to local charities and philantrophies.

I hope I didn't take this the wrong way but what do you mean when you say "hope never to be saturated in such a life"? This is my job and my life by choice.

Ax

You have had a pretty good life, I must say...

I too use gambling as my #1 income... Been done with the 9 to 5 for going on 8 yrs... Being "saturated" in the life is what I love.... And it looks like AX does too. Good to see others succeeding in what only few do year after year..... It can be done. MONEY MGT is #1 for surviving (and keeping the spouse happy during losing times)

 

[shamrock]

FT,

Very informative and invaluable.

With all due respect. I have a JD, an MBA and a undergraduate degrees in Math and Engineering. I've worked for a Wall Street firm and cosider myself a god fearing and upstanding citizen. I've raise 2 boys one in college and one out. I'm a Marine Corps veteran, don't do drugs, pay my taxes and volunteer my time to local charities and philantrophies.

I hope I didn't take this the wrong way but what do you mean when you say "hope never to be saturated in such a life"? This is my job and my life by choice.

Ax

ax-
where in Massachusetts are you from? Can I get your email from Jack?

 

[axp59]

Ax-

Meant no harm by the comment...my main point was to distinguish this as more of a "game" that I choose to play and a way to keep me intellectually challenged. It's just not MY personal desire to center MY own life (and income) around gambling [at this stage of my life when I am only 29 years old]. Not a hit against you personally or someone who does this professionally, more power to you! Any $ I collect at the end of the day is treated just as a year-end bonus; except I get to watch sports and crunch numbers, two things I love to do, in the process. If I lose money, oh well, just treat it as another expense like my cable bill.

Would love to talk Wall Street with you one day as well...let me know when you make it out to "David Allen Coe" country.

Again, I apologize if my word usage offended you, not my intent.

Take care and good luck,

FT

FT,

Understood my friend. You just caught me off guard. No harm and we are good. I do still intend on taking you up on your original offer if I ever make it down your part of the country. Keep up the great work. Your insight is a great asset to this forum.

I wish you much continued success.

Ax

 

[axp59]

(and keeping the spouse happy during losing times)

Oh boy, I still remember the day when I broke the news. It took every inch of her understanding soul to find a positive spin on the news. Support from the significant other is key.

 

[axp59]

ax-
where in Massachusetts are you from? Can I get your email from Jack?

Yes sir you may. I am a transplant from the Berkshires. I came to Boston to work as an attorney in the big dig. My specialty was environmental law. We know how that turned out. LOL I am now up in a little town called Billerica.

 

[Theboundbook]

Oh boy, I still remember the day when I broke the news. It took every inch of her understanding soul to find a positive spin on the news. Support from the significant other is key.

Without support, the relationship will die... either by lies, or her driving you nuts when you ARE LOSING, and when you are winning, her EXPECTING money and not understanding (or conveniently remembering the losing part) when you say, "No, you cant have half".... And when you are up 1k, lose 500, she is screaming, "Why didnt you stop at 1k???"...

As you can see, I have gambled and had both types of women... My wife is the understanding one and admits it is difficult to live a life based on pt spreads, mood swings sometimes based on those pt spreads, and basically an up and down income, but she is happy and to be honest, we are living quite comfortably... And have savings.... (Just in case, of another meltdown month or something of the like)

 

[- FT -]

Good stuff bound...I am definitely open about all of this with my other half...I am trying to teach her some basic things to watch for so she becomes less frustrated with me watching NBA games (and so she can have an educated opinion at halftime!).

Definitely have to balance things out...that is the key for me. Can't justify being in front of the TV/computer every night (even though I have a netbook for travel purposes). She has my back at social events if I slip out to the car for 5-10 minutes to check things out. I signed up to take her to Mary Poppins on Thursday night (only 2 games that night, but she doesn't need to know that ).

 

[Randercity]

Thanks...

Thanks...

for the nice compliments. Read through your entire thread here, and I came away very impressed indeed. I am glad that others have taken what we started way back when and expanded upon it. I have to agree with what you said about money management and Units play. In your case you are crunching numbers ONLY and it creates a play or no play scenario without the emotion/adrenaline influence. Very good system, and one I would not tinker with.

I like yourself am also a numbers guy, although not "papered" up as you and Ax are, but a numbers guys as well. I cannot devote full time hours to this, and the nights I do get "free" I tend to play the "whole board". My system is faulty, very streaky but in the end it produces pretty good results for me. The main reason I post 1 to 5 Units on plays is because I do have varying degrees of like or not like concerning my games and there are times when the "numbers" say one thing, but my "eyes" see another. When they match, well, I go MAX BOB, like last night's CHI UNDER. I would recommend "beginners" to follow you and your system. My way is a bit erratic but if you're a fan of roller coasters, well by all means jump aboard. I am very hit and miss, when I'm hot, I can get very hot, but when I'm off, I'm off just like us all. I do play the games I post, and I realize that a lot of people follow the STREAK.

Maybe we can start another HT CREW like the one from old. Basically what we did was use our own systems, post our own plays, all in one thread, and if time allowed, any analysis of said play. I can type pretty quick, so I normally have more to say than most, but the analysis doesn't have to wait til the buzzer. What made our thread work was different guys watching different games and giving IMPORTANT info. Like last night, I do not have the NBA PASS right now, my viewing is somewhat limited the internet, but if I had known TROY MURPHY went down in the FH and hurt his back, I would NOT have played IND or the OVER for that matter, but definitely not INDY. Had we worked together, that would have been known. Whoever was going to be "IN" the thread that night would "check in" and post what games they would or could watch since we are spread out all over the country/world. We would try to get all games covered and have people post any potential injuries, technicals, pace, and basic feel of the game. UTAH/DAL is a great example.... last night they combined for 72 pts in the FH, but they were running. Lots of sloppy play, missed jumpers, etc... but the pace was fast, not slow at all. Once the FG% "corrected" in the 2H, we get 109 pts scored as DIRK went nuts. I played DAL, but passed on the TOTAL, but I may have jumped had someone chimed in.... that's my point. Insight into each game can help the "feel" guys, and put some polish on the numbers.

I know that's alot, director: should have started my OWN thread! ) but I know we are on "borrowed" time at HT, not much time to be writing/betting/posting etc.... that's why the TEAM EFFORT worked so well. More eyes, more info, more numbers, mo MONEY!!!!!! :00hour

With all that, your point is well taken. I'm currently at a break even 52% on my plays, but due to bad money management, I'm down MORE units than I should be. May continue with "my system" til I get it corrected, then back it off to maybe just 1 to 3 units. Although last year my 5* did hit 65%

See ya at HT! :SIB

 

[- FT -]

Thanks for the input Rander...you were a catalyst to my success, I seriously mean that!

 

[Randercity]

why thank you!

why thank you!

Thanks for the input Rander...you were a catalyst to my success, I seriously mean that!

:mj1:

But it was a group :mj17: thing, but I do realize I used to post alot about WHY HT NBA was the easiest money to make in my opinion. That and NFL HT & Teasers!

But enough of this :00x6 Let's make some $$ :00hour

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I have a question for you. You said your system generates 'Under' or 'N/A'. Why do you not play Overs? I appreciate the fact that you play mostly Unders. I would assume most of the betting public plays Overs just like they take the Favorites.
Thanks

 

[MasterTX]

I am simplifying the concept, but the basic idea is this...

When the 2H begins, if you are on the Under, you are automatically starting as a winner...that continues I would say 99.9% of the time for the entire 3Q and for at least half of the 4Q. I don't have any concrete stats on the average time in the 4th Qtr that a play goes over, but let's call it the 2 minute point for the sake of argument. Do I want to be on the side of the bet that is a winner for 22 minutes or rather be a loser for 22 minutes?

That along with your "public" tendency to like overs, and the fact that more 2H totals go under than over (even if it's not by a huge margin) leads me to play only unders.