My 2H Betting Strategy

[Trampled Underfoot]

I am simplifying the concept, but the basic idea is this...

When the 2H begins, if you are on the Under, you are automatically starting as a winner...that continues I would say 99.9% of the time for the entire 3Q and for at least half of the 4Q. I don't have any concrete stats on the average time in the 4th Qtr that a play goes over, but let's call it the 2 minute point for the sake of argument. Do I want to be on the side of the bet that is a winner for 22 minutes or rather be a loser for 22 minutes?

That along with your "public" tendency to like overs, and the fact that more 2H totals go under than over (even if it's not by a huge margin) leads me to play only unders.

Thanks for the reply. I have to say i've always enjoyed rooting for Unders anyway. It really only takes a bad 3 minute stretch to kill an Over.

 

[thadchr]

This is worth bumping. Great thread.

FT, do you ever bet full games? I'm in a couple NBA contests, and it's not really my sports... would love to find someone around here to tail on a daily basis. :SIB

 

[- FT -]

I do not thadchr, but axp and gsp are two guys I would invest my $ in.

 

[thadchr]

I do not thadchr, but axp and gsp are two guys I would invest my $ in.

Alright then boys, let's get posting some plays! :00hour


Also, a question for those of you who handicap as your sole means of income: Do you make frequent trips to Vegas or AC, or have someone there placing bets for you, or do you really trust in offshore books to work almost like a bank account for you? Seems to me I'd be a little weary with thousands of dollars changing hands across countries via Western Union and the like, and banks these days seem to check into anything that's even close to a substantial amount of money.

I play mostly small time but NFL is really my specialty, and every so often I find a week where I go balls to the wall with a couple parlays and win big. In those cases, I request an unnaturally large payout and it also seems like a bit of a pain in the ass. You guys have methods that I don't?

 

[mikeyyy]

This is great! I would love it if there was one consolidated thread of the top cappers, so that the beginning cappers, or not successful cappers, could just go with the leans/picks of those that know what they are doing, or who have had a proven track record of success through their system (in many ways, we are all guessing because trends, situational, or gut can all be wrong from time to time)

this capper said: "Maybe we can start another HT CREW like the one from old. Basically what we did was use our own systems, post our own plays, all in one thread, and if time allowed, any analysis of said play."

I think doing a thread like that could really help...what do you guys/gals think?

Mikeyyy

Just some background for those of you who are interested in understanding my 2H betting...

If I could only show you the hundreds (easily) of spreadsheets I have gone through since I started betting (in 2001), you would think I was formulating a new mathematical theory. I have spent many endless nights (starting in college where I should have been studying for exams or partying) crunching numbers and trying to find an "edge" in this so called game.

After I graduated in 2003, I traded equities for 4 years. That helped tremendously. Learned a lot about risk, money management, psychology, statistics, trending, analyzing data on the fly, etc...didn't need to bet on sports a lot during that time, b/c the rush was fulfilled on a daily basis.

Randercity is a great resource to follow for 2H betting. I remember when I first joined MJ's back in the day, there was a huge 2H team that collaborated to make plays, and Randercity, in my opinion, provided the most insight into his picks. I took a lot of what he said and tested it years later when I started devising my own strategy, for ex:
If Team A shot a low 1H FG%, what was the result in the 2H? Did that vary on the road vs home? Were they well rested or not? What about their opponent---were they well rested, a stud defensive team? How low is low, 1 or 2 standard deviations below their average FG%? If they were winning or losing, how did that effect the results? You get my point...lots of in-depth analysis taking place just from one minor aspect of the game.

From there, I developed what I think to be a fairly complex system that predicts scores and also looks at a multitude of other indicators for a game. It is not static system...just like Vegas gets new information every day, so do I. I am a numbers guy...I really respect the guys who can make plays based on instinct and general take on a game, but every one of my plays is systems driven, there is no human emotion involved. It spits out either "Under" or "N/A". Simple as that. I have been very disciplined about not trying to analyze games on my gut feel (b/c I have made money in the past doing that), and that is not easy to refrain from.

My goal every year is to make money. +1 unit is fine by me. I am not a full time gambler, and hope never to be saturated in such a life. I am fortunate to have a solid job that allows me to set aside $X for a gambling bankroll each season. That money is 100% spent as far as I am concerned on Day 1. At the end of the season, I either make a bonus or I make nothing. Betting for me is purely for entertainment purposes and to satisfy my desire to win (yes, I am extremely competitive by nature).

I will never get into the details of everything that my system looks for, but if there are specific (educated) questions, you never know, I might drop some hints.

Just wanted to get that out there, not trying to self-promote, just clarify and maybe get some good conversation flowing.

Best of luck to all,

FT

 

[thadchr]

One more bump...