As much as I wanted to talk myself into supporting the Spartans tonight, there are some strong factors in backing the Heels in this spot. I can't help but stare at that 35 point thrashing that happened in December, and although realizing this is a much better MSU team due to what they were going through at that time, it remains an example of what UNC is capable of. I rate the skill players of UNC better than MSU (and I didn't with UCONN), and they are simply better equipped to rip off runs during the game which will be key in taking Izzo and MSU out of what they want to do.
MSU was able to run - better than UCONN - on Saturday, which made the difference. I don't think they will be able to run and finish as often tonight, and I don't think they can stop the UNC running game like they could UCONN.
I think Lawson is better than Lucas. Possibly a lot better in this spot, although they probably won't be matched up. If he's not slowed by the toe, he's the difference maker in this big game. I think he can score on Walton, and not many people can.
I think Hansbrough is FAR superior to anyone inside with MSU, and he will go to the line often, if the game is reasonably officiated. And he won't get in foul trouble, if it becomes an early concern. He is definitely capable of handling Suton inside or out, and not many people can extend on Suton like Hansbrough can.
I think Wayne Ellington will be the real difference maker tonight. I don't know which one of the Spartans is good enough to match up with him consistently, and I fully expect him to have a big offensive night. He's the complete package, and doesn't get the recognition he deserves behind the big two. If he is hitting his shots outside, I don't see this being in doubt at the end. If he's not, he can take people off the dribble and get out on the break and continue to be a problem. The standout diffference in the game to me.
Although I love how Morgan's illness made the rest of the MSU players better, and the team better overall, I don't think running guys in and out against Carolina will keep the kind of offensive continuity that will be required to keep pace in what should be a high scoring game.
Ed Davis will need to be aggressive on the boards and not allow second chance points for the Spartans when he is in - which has been a lot, lately. I think he is far from a young kid at this point... and will get the job done.
I love what MSU has done in this tournament, and have more respect for Izzo than probably any other coach. But I don't think the semi-home court or the improving Spartan team is going to be enough to beat the number and the athletes of UNC tonight.
Taking UNC to win by more than the 7.5 point spread here. Enjoy the game.
MSU was able to run - better than UCONN - on Saturday, which made the difference. I don't think they will be able to run and finish as often tonight, and I don't think they can stop the UNC running game like they could UCONN.
I think Lawson is better than Lucas. Possibly a lot better in this spot, although they probably won't be matched up. If he's not slowed by the toe, he's the difference maker in this big game. I think he can score on Walton, and not many people can.
I think Hansbrough is FAR superior to anyone inside with MSU, and he will go to the line often, if the game is reasonably officiated. And he won't get in foul trouble, if it becomes an early concern. He is definitely capable of handling Suton inside or out, and not many people can extend on Suton like Hansbrough can.
I think Wayne Ellington will be the real difference maker tonight. I don't know which one of the Spartans is good enough to match up with him consistently, and I fully expect him to have a big offensive night. He's the complete package, and doesn't get the recognition he deserves behind the big two. If he is hitting his shots outside, I don't see this being in doubt at the end. If he's not, he can take people off the dribble and get out on the break and continue to be a problem. The standout diffference in the game to me.
Although I love how Morgan's illness made the rest of the MSU players better, and the team better overall, I don't think running guys in and out against Carolina will keep the kind of offensive continuity that will be required to keep pace in what should be a high scoring game.
Ed Davis will need to be aggressive on the boards and not allow second chance points for the Spartans when he is in - which has been a lot, lately. I think he is far from a young kid at this point... and will get the job done.
I love what MSU has done in this tournament, and have more respect for Izzo than probably any other coach. But I don't think the semi-home court or the improving Spartan team is going to be enough to beat the number and the athletes of UNC tonight.
Taking UNC to win by more than the 7.5 point spread here. Enjoy the game.
