Hi everyone,
This is always my favorite round - the divisional playoffs! Have had nice success in this round in recent years. I know I've seen some threads where people are thinking and liking the exact opposite of what I'm backing this weekend. Some like all the favorites to cover. Most likely dogs or faves won't go 4-0...however i'd give the dogs a much better chance at 4-0 than all 4 faves. This is the NFL and it's so tough for 4 games in a weekend to have all 4 cover. Now we just came off a weekend where 3 of the 4 favorites covered. I have been off to a poor 1-6 start this post-season - my worst start to an NFL playoffs ever. But I'm going to come back strong this weekend. I'm locked into all 4 sides, and loving every one of them.
I am one who usually does not lock in to games too early. I like to watch the line and see what others are doing, and react to that info. However, in all 4 of these, I think it's best to take the points right now if liking the dog. Alot of times the dog will get extra points on gameday, but I'm not seeing it that way this weekend. I just bought a hook on the Baltimore game up to +3.5. That very well could be a FG game, in my projections it has the highest probability to be a FG game out of the 4. So I want the win if it lands on 3.
Now a little recent history here - and some I don't believe can be ignored, and i think I can explain why we see success in recent years with the dogs in this Divisional round. Think about it for a second - you have 8 teams remaining in the playoffs. 4 teams just came off of wins in the Wild Card round, and another 4 teams are coming off of byes, and have earned them by putting up great regular season records. I'm still not sold though that the week off is that beneficial - sometimes when teams get a week off from their normal routine, they come out a little sluggish when they return to action. Anyways the way I have always viewed this round is you have 4 great games, and every team left deserves to be playing for a Super Bowl run. Teams know they are just 2 wins away at this point, and are playing their hearts out. Most of these games there is so much talent on each team, it's hard to really designate anyone a favorite. I truely can make a case for every dog this weekend could be favored and I'd have no problem with it. You have a San Diego team playing as well as anyone, a Baltimore team that just might be the best in the AFC, winning alot of games down the stretch...a high powered Arizona Cardinals offense that can put up alot of points, and a Philadelphia Eagles team that might be better than the Giants are right now. And each of these teams are getting 3 or more points! How can you not love that?
We've seen this year that home field has not meant that much. Teams are winning on the road, and each team playing will not be intimidated playing on the road. When you play all 4 dogs you have to love this - that any close game of less than 3 points or less (assuming you take Balt at +3.5 - highly recommend it) you win that game. But let's face it - most times you will have a minimum of 1 team winning outright. I really feel that at least 2 road teams win this weekend. Now I'd love to go 4-0, but I'm really shooting for a 3-1 weekend. That's more realistic. Taking all 4 faves I think is going to be an uphill battle - remember all 4 need to cover that predetermined number the linesmaker put on the game. It's harder than you think to have all 4 win the game and cover the 3, 4, 6, and 10 points.
Ok now for some recent history. Dogs have gone 7W-1L in the last 2 years. I firmly believe that every game is independant and am not a huge "trend guy" - but again I think the reason you see success by the dogs is that the perception that some teams are better than others really doesn't become reality. I believe we have 4 live dogs again - each one can win it's game.
Now I want to take you back to January 13th & 14th, 2007. I'll never forget this weekend. Was actually out in Vegas that weekend w/ my wife and am rarely there for the Divisional playoff weekend. Was nice because got to lay some nice bets in Vegas, and enjoy watching the games at the sports book. I played all 4 dogs that weekend for equal amounts, and I also put in a nice little 4 team parlay on all 4 dogs that paid a nice sum. Not sure if you recall that weekend (it was 2 years ago!) - but here were the results of 2007 division playoff weekend - I also included the lines:
Colts at Ravens = Ravens were favored by -3.5
Result = Colts won outright 15-6!
Eagles at Saints = Saints were favored by -5
Result = Saints won 27-24 but did not cover!
Seahawks at Bears = Bears favored by -9
Result = Bears won 27-24 but did not cover!
Patriots at Chargers = Chargers favored by -4.5
Result = Patriots won outright 24-21!
So 4 games, seeing all 4 dogs cover...with 2 winning outright...I won all 4 bets, and a nice 4 team parlay! Needless to say it was a very profitable weekend and highly successful Vegas trip!
Do you notice something when you look at the lines from 2 years back? It looks VERY similar to the lines this weekend where we have a -3, -4, -6, and -10!
So now let's go back just 1 year - once again the Divsion playoffs were dominated by the dogs - here was the results from the Jan 12 & 13th 2007 weekend:
Seahawks at Packers = Packers favored by -7.5
Result = Packers won 42-20 (only fave to cover)
Jaguars at Patriots = Pats favored by -13.5
Result = Pats won 31-20 but did not cover!
Chargers at Colts = Colts favored by -11
Result = Chargers won 28-24 outright!
Giants at Cowboys = Cowboys favored by -7
Result = Giants won outright 21-17!
So a 3-1 weekend for the dogs last year in this round, 2 more outright dog winners. Seattle started out well against GB but then fell apart.
Alright post is starting to get long - but I feel it's some valuable info - and the big point I'm trying to make is perception of how much better the favorites are in this round often is not reality when it's all said and done. I feel VERY comfortable backing all 4 dogs this weekend. I have put in a small parlay on all 4 dogs as well just for fun that pays off 11 to 1 w/ having the Balt at +3.5...last year playing all 4 dogs on the ML would have been sweet...this year Arizona might be worth the shot, the other 3 have much lower spreads - anyways I took the points on all 4.
HERE IS WHAT I LOCKED INTO FOR THIS WEEKENDS DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS:
BALTIMORE +3.5 (-120)
Risking $2,400 to win $2,000
ARIZONA +10
Risking $2,200 to win $2,000
PHILADELPHIA +4
Risking $2,200 to win $2,000
SAN DIEGO +6
Risking $2,200 to win $2,000
4 TEAM PARLAY BAL/AZ/PHIL/SD = PAYS 11 to 1
Risking $400 to win $4,400
I'm looking forward to the weekend...still watching some things with the totals, but my side plays are locked in. I love the dogs! If this weekend is like recent years, the dogs will be barking.
One last angle that I believe makes this weekend very unique and is ANOTHER element that favors the dogs this weekend. Each of these 4 matchups are REMATCHES from earlier season matchups. Take a look at the results from earlier in the season - along with the point spreads from those games:
Balt at Tenn = Tenn won 13-10, spread was Tenn -1, so the fave Tenn covered - I will note that the opening line was Tenn -3, and moved down to -1
Arizona at Carolina = Carolina won 27-23, spread was Carolina -5.5, so the dog Arizona covered
NY at Philly = Giants won 36-31, spread was Philly -3, so the dog Giants won outright
Philly at NY = Philly won 20-14, spread was Giants -7, so the dog Philly won outright
SD at Pitt = Pitt won 11-10, spread was Pitt -4.5
*note this is the game where Pitt should have had another TD, but final score is the final score, but the dog SD covered
So analyzing the original games these 8 teams played against each other I'd like to make a few comments:
1) The line in the playoff matchup of Tenn -3 is the same as the opener was back in the regular season. At this point of the season I feel that Baltimore is playing better football thatn the Titans did down the stretch. Also, the result was Tenn won by 3. They did cover, because line ended up being Tenn -1 for most, but again this is a very close matchup - so I believe +3, and even better buying up to +3.5 is tremendous value with Baltimore!
2) Carolina was -5.5 point favorites in the first matchup - but now is -10 point favorites in the playoffs? Why? Arizona kept it close in the first matchup, and I believe will be in it until the end, and won't be shocked to see them win outright. I just feel 2 scores is too much in this spot.
3) We were able to enjoy 2 great regular season Giants/Eagles games. What is interesting is both teams won in the other teams home stadium. Line for this playoff game is -4, and when they just played last month Eagles were catching 7. Still, I believe anything above 3 is value in this divisional matchup. These teams know each other well, and Philly has played as well as NY down the stretch. Philly is an extremely live dog this weekend.
4) In the first SD/Pitt matchup we had SD catching 4.5, now they get 6. Pitt has just not put teams away this year. Their offense struggles alot at times. Sproles might just be a better play against that tough D than LT. Another game that has potential to come down to the wire. I'll easily take the 6 points here w/ a SD team playing as well as anyone.
Alright - that's all I got
! As you can see I look at alot of different factors and angles when making my plays. Just thought I'd share some of my thought process with this divisional round. Of course we never will know what will happen until Saturday and Sunday, but I feel confident that after this weekend my NFL playoff results will be on the upswing.
Best of luck if you decide to play the dogs. Should be some entertaining games. Enjoy your night!
--SAVE IT
This is always my favorite round - the divisional playoffs! Have had nice success in this round in recent years. I know I've seen some threads where people are thinking and liking the exact opposite of what I'm backing this weekend. Some like all the favorites to cover. Most likely dogs or faves won't go 4-0...however i'd give the dogs a much better chance at 4-0 than all 4 faves. This is the NFL and it's so tough for 4 games in a weekend to have all 4 cover. Now we just came off a weekend where 3 of the 4 favorites covered. I have been off to a poor 1-6 start this post-season - my worst start to an NFL playoffs ever. But I'm going to come back strong this weekend. I'm locked into all 4 sides, and loving every one of them.
I am one who usually does not lock in to games too early. I like to watch the line and see what others are doing, and react to that info. However, in all 4 of these, I think it's best to take the points right now if liking the dog. Alot of times the dog will get extra points on gameday, but I'm not seeing it that way this weekend. I just bought a hook on the Baltimore game up to +3.5. That very well could be a FG game, in my projections it has the highest probability to be a FG game out of the 4. So I want the win if it lands on 3.
Now a little recent history here - and some I don't believe can be ignored, and i think I can explain why we see success in recent years with the dogs in this Divisional round. Think about it for a second - you have 8 teams remaining in the playoffs. 4 teams just came off of wins in the Wild Card round, and another 4 teams are coming off of byes, and have earned them by putting up great regular season records. I'm still not sold though that the week off is that beneficial - sometimes when teams get a week off from their normal routine, they come out a little sluggish when they return to action. Anyways the way I have always viewed this round is you have 4 great games, and every team left deserves to be playing for a Super Bowl run. Teams know they are just 2 wins away at this point, and are playing their hearts out. Most of these games there is so much talent on each team, it's hard to really designate anyone a favorite. I truely can make a case for every dog this weekend could be favored and I'd have no problem with it. You have a San Diego team playing as well as anyone, a Baltimore team that just might be the best in the AFC, winning alot of games down the stretch...a high powered Arizona Cardinals offense that can put up alot of points, and a Philadelphia Eagles team that might be better than the Giants are right now. And each of these teams are getting 3 or more points! How can you not love that?
We've seen this year that home field has not meant that much. Teams are winning on the road, and each team playing will not be intimidated playing on the road. When you play all 4 dogs you have to love this - that any close game of less than 3 points or less (assuming you take Balt at +3.5 - highly recommend it) you win that game. But let's face it - most times you will have a minimum of 1 team winning outright. I really feel that at least 2 road teams win this weekend. Now I'd love to go 4-0, but I'm really shooting for a 3-1 weekend. That's more realistic. Taking all 4 faves I think is going to be an uphill battle - remember all 4 need to cover that predetermined number the linesmaker put on the game. It's harder than you think to have all 4 win the game and cover the 3, 4, 6, and 10 points.
Ok now for some recent history. Dogs have gone 7W-1L in the last 2 years. I firmly believe that every game is independant and am not a huge "trend guy" - but again I think the reason you see success by the dogs is that the perception that some teams are better than others really doesn't become reality. I believe we have 4 live dogs again - each one can win it's game.
Now I want to take you back to January 13th & 14th, 2007. I'll never forget this weekend. Was actually out in Vegas that weekend w/ my wife and am rarely there for the Divisional playoff weekend. Was nice because got to lay some nice bets in Vegas, and enjoy watching the games at the sports book. I played all 4 dogs that weekend for equal amounts, and I also put in a nice little 4 team parlay on all 4 dogs that paid a nice sum. Not sure if you recall that weekend (it was 2 years ago!) - but here were the results of 2007 division playoff weekend - I also included the lines:
Colts at Ravens = Ravens were favored by -3.5
Result = Colts won outright 15-6!
Eagles at Saints = Saints were favored by -5
Result = Saints won 27-24 but did not cover!
Seahawks at Bears = Bears favored by -9
Result = Bears won 27-24 but did not cover!
Patriots at Chargers = Chargers favored by -4.5
Result = Patriots won outright 24-21!
So 4 games, seeing all 4 dogs cover...with 2 winning outright...I won all 4 bets, and a nice 4 team parlay! Needless to say it was a very profitable weekend and highly successful Vegas trip!
Do you notice something when you look at the lines from 2 years back? It looks VERY similar to the lines this weekend where we have a -3, -4, -6, and -10!
So now let's go back just 1 year - once again the Divsion playoffs were dominated by the dogs - here was the results from the Jan 12 & 13th 2007 weekend:
Seahawks at Packers = Packers favored by -7.5
Result = Packers won 42-20 (only fave to cover)
Jaguars at Patriots = Pats favored by -13.5
Result = Pats won 31-20 but did not cover!
Chargers at Colts = Colts favored by -11
Result = Chargers won 28-24 outright!
Giants at Cowboys = Cowboys favored by -7
Result = Giants won outright 21-17!
So a 3-1 weekend for the dogs last year in this round, 2 more outright dog winners. Seattle started out well against GB but then fell apart.
Alright post is starting to get long - but I feel it's some valuable info - and the big point I'm trying to make is perception of how much better the favorites are in this round often is not reality when it's all said and done. I feel VERY comfortable backing all 4 dogs this weekend. I have put in a small parlay on all 4 dogs as well just for fun that pays off 11 to 1 w/ having the Balt at +3.5...last year playing all 4 dogs on the ML would have been sweet...this year Arizona might be worth the shot, the other 3 have much lower spreads - anyways I took the points on all 4.
HERE IS WHAT I LOCKED INTO FOR THIS WEEKENDS DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS:
BALTIMORE +3.5 (-120)
Risking $2,400 to win $2,000
ARIZONA +10
Risking $2,200 to win $2,000
PHILADELPHIA +4
Risking $2,200 to win $2,000
SAN DIEGO +6
Risking $2,200 to win $2,000
4 TEAM PARLAY BAL/AZ/PHIL/SD = PAYS 11 to 1
Risking $400 to win $4,400
I'm looking forward to the weekend...still watching some things with the totals, but my side plays are locked in. I love the dogs! If this weekend is like recent years, the dogs will be barking.
One last angle that I believe makes this weekend very unique and is ANOTHER element that favors the dogs this weekend. Each of these 4 matchups are REMATCHES from earlier season matchups. Take a look at the results from earlier in the season - along with the point spreads from those games:
Balt at Tenn = Tenn won 13-10, spread was Tenn -1, so the fave Tenn covered - I will note that the opening line was Tenn -3, and moved down to -1
Arizona at Carolina = Carolina won 27-23, spread was Carolina -5.5, so the dog Arizona covered
NY at Philly = Giants won 36-31, spread was Philly -3, so the dog Giants won outright
Philly at NY = Philly won 20-14, spread was Giants -7, so the dog Philly won outright
SD at Pitt = Pitt won 11-10, spread was Pitt -4.5
*note this is the game where Pitt should have had another TD, but final score is the final score, but the dog SD covered
So analyzing the original games these 8 teams played against each other I'd like to make a few comments:
1) The line in the playoff matchup of Tenn -3 is the same as the opener was back in the regular season. At this point of the season I feel that Baltimore is playing better football thatn the Titans did down the stretch. Also, the result was Tenn won by 3. They did cover, because line ended up being Tenn -1 for most, but again this is a very close matchup - so I believe +3, and even better buying up to +3.5 is tremendous value with Baltimore!
2) Carolina was -5.5 point favorites in the first matchup - but now is -10 point favorites in the playoffs? Why? Arizona kept it close in the first matchup, and I believe will be in it until the end, and won't be shocked to see them win outright. I just feel 2 scores is too much in this spot.
3) We were able to enjoy 2 great regular season Giants/Eagles games. What is interesting is both teams won in the other teams home stadium. Line for this playoff game is -4, and when they just played last month Eagles were catching 7. Still, I believe anything above 3 is value in this divisional matchup. These teams know each other well, and Philly has played as well as NY down the stretch. Philly is an extremely live dog this weekend.
4) In the first SD/Pitt matchup we had SD catching 4.5, now they get 6. Pitt has just not put teams away this year. Their offense struggles alot at times. Sproles might just be a better play against that tough D than LT. Another game that has potential to come down to the wire. I'll easily take the 6 points here w/ a SD team playing as well as anyone.
Alright - that's all I got
! As you can see I look at alot of different factors and angles when making my plays. Just thought I'd share some of my thought process with this divisional round. Of course we never will know what will happen until Saturday and Sunday, but I feel confident that after this weekend my NFL playoff results will be on the upswing. Best of luck if you decide to play the dogs. Should be some entertaining games. Enjoy your night!
--SAVE IT
