My Early Football Picks

[Scott4USC]

This year I will be betting $500 a unit and these are my early positions so far.

8 units
Wisconsin -1 -118 over Bowling Green (4 units)
Wisconsin -1.5 over Bowling Green (2units)
Wisconsin -1 -113 over Bowling Green (2 units)

5 units
NC ST. +5.5 over V-Tech (2 units)
NC ST. +6 -120 over V-Tech (3 units)

5 units
BYU +5 over BC (4 units)
BYU ML +165 over BC (1 unit)

3 units
Memphis/Ole Miss under 52 -125

3 units
Ohio U +15 over Northwestern

2 units
Memphis -1.5 over Ole Miss

2 units
Houston +10 over Oregon

2 units
UCLA -7 over SDSU

2 units
UAB +24 -112 over TN

2 units
Tulsa +17 over Minnesota

2 units
Oregon -5 2h

I'll have write-ups later! Also will be taking NC ST. big but waiting for line to go higher. These games the lines will be going against me so I had to put them in now.

Anybody know what sportsbooks are offering ML? I have 7 sportsbooks and none seem to offer it.

*****

Edit1: Couldn't resist and put 2 units on NC ST. at +5.5 at -105. But will be adding more. I am hoping to get +6 but I'll play +5.5 again at -105 if I see it again.

Edit2: Added NC ST. +6 -120

Edit3: Added BYU +165 ML

Edit4: Added UAB +24

Edit5: Added Wisconsin -1 -118

Edit6: Memphis/Ole Miss under 52 -125

Edit7: Added Tulsa +17

Edit8: Added Oregon -5 2h

Edit9: Added Wisconsin -1.5

Edit10: Added Wisconsin -1 -113

 

[bjfinste]

FWIW, I disagree and think BC will win and cover. I've been wrong from time to time, of course. I just think the running game will be too much and BC will win it with sheer brawn.

However, to answer your question, 5dimes has moneylines up on all games. BYU is currently listed at +4/+160, and NC State is +5.5/+185.

 

[ilike'ginajuice]

Scott,

I was just capping that Ole Miss/Memphis game last night and if anything saw a slight lean to Miss -- I like D'angelo and all, but they lost a ton of firepower from last year -- curious as to why you feel strongly with Memphis. Thanks or any input, would love to hear it.

Luck be with you (and the Pac 10)

 

[Scott4USC]

Thanks bjfinste. Give me your opinion about BC after you read my analysis why BYU will cover and prob. win outright.

Scott,

I was just capping that Ole Miss/Memphis game last night and if anything saw a slight lean to Miss -- I like D'angelo and all, but they lost a ton of firepower from last year -- curious as to why you feel strongly with Memphis. Thanks or any input, would love to hear it.

Luck be with you (and the Pac 10)

MEMPHIS :thumb:

I think OLE Miss has some unanswered question marks. QB? RB? Defense? But most importantly their head coach. Now I love Ed Orgeron but being a DL coach at USC to being a HC at OLE Miss is a big transition. Especially on a talent viewpoint. I am confident ED Orgeron will out recruit just about anyone but I am talking about Ole Miss this year in game 1. NOBODY knows how well he will do on gameday. I think opening the season on the road with these question marks plays well for Memphis to win at home. Taking Memphis at -1.5 I just need them to win by 2pts or more. I see a lot of value in that alone. But I need more than that if I am putting 1k on this.

Memphis should win this game with defense. DC Dunn returns an experienced defense. 3 of the 4 LB's return along with entire secondary. I expect Memphis to play solid D in this game. Especially against an OLE MISS Squad with some question marks at key positions and coaching staff. Hard to implement an offensive system for game 1 of the season and execute it efficiently against an experienced defense on the road.

Get on it now, the line will be -3 very soon.

If I didn't have money on this game, I would be rooting for Ole Miss because of coach O. I am glad this game will be televised. Always fun to watch your bets on the tube.

 

[gman2]

im interested in hearing what you see in ohio. just my humble opinion, but i think they merit a strong look the following week when they open up at home against pittsburgh on espn. just somethg to think about -- northwestern's spread offense is very similar to the spreads featured by bowling green and toledo. bowling green put up 481 yards of offense and 41 pts against OU last year. toledo put up 400 yards of offense and 31 points against OU last year. the matchup against pitt, imo, presents more value, will be solich's home debut, and the panthers won't spread out ohio's defense as much.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Gman,

Because he knows more than you of course. You really are slipping man.

By the way did my email satisfactorily answer your questions?

 

[gman2]

sun:

it did. appreciate you takin the time to send back a response. keep in touch. btw- with you 100% on clemson.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

of the games you listed, oly has moneylines up on all of them.

BYU went to +4 and moneyline is +165

Ohio went to 14.5 and +425

Memphis went to -2.5 -135

Houston is +9.5 and +320

UCLA is still -7 and -300

NC St. is 5.5 and +190

Didn't line shop, pinny not up with moneyline yets.
Just quickly looked at Oly. Personally of your picks I agree with BYU and Memphs, and hate Houston. No opinoin on the rest.

gl with your plays

 

[Blackman]

Looking at BC as my first play of the year. Write up to come at some point this week, but I really like this BC squad and love their offensive line.

Also don't think BYU has beaten many (if any) ranked opponents in a long time.

I know that people are going to point to last season when BYU beat ND at home to open the year, but this BC team is much stronger and better balanced than ND was. BYU will be improved, and should be a bowl qualifier, but I don't see them on the same level as BC.

 

[Scott4USC]

im interested in hearing what you see in ohio.

OHIO U. :thumb:

I think HC Frank Solich will do a fantastic job at Ohio U. As you mentioned in your Ohio U write-up, they should have a decent defense. IMO good enough to keep Ohio within 15pts of Northwestern.

I am a big believer games are won/lost in the trenches. OL/DL IMO are the 2 most important units on the field. Northwestern loses most of their OL and DL from last years underachieving team. With that said, 15pts is a lot of pts for Northwestern to cover. In addition, Ohio has a major special teams advantage over Northwestern. Could be the difference in them covering. I see Ohio staying in this game but falling short at the end. I am also confident Ohio will be the more motivated team with Solich as the new HC and taking on a team from a BCS conf. That usually is enough for underdogs to cover a high number. Many teams in the Big 10 are known to play down to their opponents level. I do not see Ohio losing by more than 15pts to Northwestern who I feel shouldn't be double digit favorites over anyone. Northwestern has major question marks on their OL, DL and special teams. Why are they favored by 15pts? Give me the Bobcats to cover that number. Worst case scenario I should have a chance at a backdoor cover. Def. worth risking 3 big units on.


Blackman

I love it that everyone seems to be on BC. But why is the line going down? I was hoping the line would rise higher but had to jump on it. Maybe it will rise higher near gameday but I was not going to risk it. +5 is a solid #. I am very confident BYU will surprise many. I think this might be a classic EAST COAST BIAS pick on BC. Boston College will struggle @BYU. Seems like many posters here at MJ's see things differently. Will be interesting to see how this one plays out. Especially with Fletcher (who I respect) practically guaranteeing a BC double digit win.

 

[soul train]

I was checking out some week 1 games and I came across this game..........

Oregon-Houston............

Houston can't pass block. This plays into the hands of the tremendous Defensive line of the Ducks. I figure the talented Kolb will be running for his life most of the night. Also, Oregon offense will be to much for Houston. They can run and throw.QB Kellen Clemens 2,548 and RB Terrence Whitehead 1,144 return for there senior year.The ducks offense outscored there opponents by 60 YPG last season. The new O-line for Oregon catches a break going up against the same team that gave up a ton of points last season.In 8 losses they gave up 60+ twice,40 and 30+ 3 times.And this is the same Houston defense returning for another season. I do think Houston will score on some big plays.Just a few

Ducks are 12-2 ATS on grass(L5Y.)

Ducks are 24-5 ATS(L29Y) in road openers.

Cougs' are 4-10 ATS in openers away from Robertson Stadium.

MY PREDICTION OREGON 44-HOUSTON 20

THE LINE IS CURRENTLY DUCKS -9.5

 

[hawkeye]

Some early games I like

Ohio
Mich
UAB
Maryland
TCU:
Mid Ten St
Kansas
Kan St
Tulane

 

[Scott4USC]

Added 3 units to NC ST. +6 -120 at BETCRIS. I bought the half since I got -105 at Pinny at +5.5 odds. Unfortunately the line seems to be going in a downward trend so had to jump on it now. This will be my biggest wager of week 1. I think I was lucky to get +5.5 because most places have it at 5 and it might even go further down. Little upset as I was hoping the line would go to +6 -105 or -110. Oh well. Seems like the lines are all going against my picks. At least I won't be kicking myself for waiting. Glad I got them in when I did. I only lost value on NC ST. as it was +6 at one pt. and then I was hoping for it to go to +6.5 then I would buy 1/2.

soul train

I think Houston will be real competitive against Oregon especialy at home. It is a lot to ask for Oregon to travel to Houston and win by double digits for the 1st game of the year. Oregon also will be installing a new offensive system. 10pts should be enough for the cover.

hawkeye

I like your UAB play. I think you have a winner with Ohio.

 

[soul train]

Added 3 units to NC ST. +6 -120 at BETCRIS. I bought the half since I got -105 at Pinny at +5.5 odds. Unfortunately the line seems to be going in a downward trend so had to jump on it now. This will be my biggest wager of week 1. I think I was lucky to get +5.5 because most places have it at 5 and it might even go further down. Little upset as I was hoping the line would go to +6 -105 or -110. Oh well. Seems like the lines are all going against my picks. At least I won't be kicking myself for waiting. Glad I got them in when I did. I only lost value on NC ST. as it was +6 at one pt. and then I was hoping for it to go to +6.5 then I would buy 1/2.

soul train

I think Houston will be real competitive against Oregon especialy at home. It is a lot to ask for Oregon to travel to Houston and win by double digits for the 1st game of the year. Oregon also will be installing a new offensive system. 10pts should be enough for the cover.

hawkeye

I like your UAB play. I think you have a winner with Ohio.

It is a lot to ask for Oregon to travel to Houston and win by double digits for the 1st game of the year.


i don`t really call that travelling on the 1st game of the season

The game is almost here,we will see

good luck

 

[Scott4USC]

i don`t really call that travelling on the 1st game of the season

The game is almost here,we will see

good luck

Why wouldn't you call that traveling? I don't get it. If Houston was playing @Oregon this would be a different story. But the game is @Houston. Isn't Houston located in in the state of Texas? Isn't Oregon located in the state of Oregon? I think Oregon will struggle. At least I hope so!

 

[soul train]

Why wouldn't you call that traveling? I don't get it. If Houston was playing @Oregon this would be a different story. But the game is @Houston. Isn't Houston located in in the state of Texas? Isn't Oregon located in the state of Oregon? I think Oregon will struggle. At least I hope so!

Why wouldn't you call that traveling? I don't get it. If Houston was playing @Oregon this would be a different story. But the game is @Houston. Isn't Houston located in in the state of Texas? Isn't Oregon located in the state of Oregon?


Your a funny guy

Houston is god awful,that`s why they are a home dog.

Ducks are 24-5 ATS(L29Y) in road openers

Travelling the last 29 years on home openers does not seem to bother the ducks...

I forgot your Scott USC,your the man :mj14:

 

[buddy]

I just think the running game will be too much and BC will win it with sheer brawn.

I'm probably wrong on this, but sometime last year I thought I heard something about a lineman for BYU who is supposedly the strongest physical specimen in the history of NCAA football.

Anybody know anything about this?

I don't invest in the first week of cfb (too much of a crapshoot and way too much work required to find a solid winner.) Week 2 on is less difficult for me.

 

[tulah]

Scott,
What do you think about NC St secondary?
FWIW I would need to get at least+ 7 to make it a big play

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding BYU ML +165 1 unit (OLY) which gives me 4 units BYU +5 and 1 unit ML. I was hoping to get +175 or higher but that wasnt going to happen. Long write-up for BYU will follow shortly. My 2 biggest plays for week 1 are NC ST. and BYU. With BYU being my strongest!


tulah

Scott,
What do you think about NC St secondary?
FWIW I would need to get at least+ 7 to make it a big play

NC ST. will be fine in the secondary and V-Tech doesn't pose a serious passing attack anyway. The front 7 for the wolfpack are excellent and a great pass rush almost always makes a team have a solid secondary. I wish I could have gotten 7pts. When the line was at +6 I was waiting for it to go to +6.5 and then buy 1/2 pt at get +7. Then line went the other way (and I got burned) but it is sharp money. I think the public will be all over V-Tech. We'll see. The line might go back up closer to gameday. Right now the lines went against all my plays so I am thankful I got them in when I did.

soul train

Houston will be a solid team this year if they stay healthy. BTW, Oregon is traveling to Houston! It is always difficult to play your 1st game of the year on the road. A reason I chose many home teams in week 1. An added advantage.

 

[Scott4USC]

BYU :thumb:

I noticed many solid cappers here at MJ's are siding with BC. I also know many services will be touting BC as well. I will not let that stop me from making a big play and hopefully cashing on BYU and the ML. Here is why.............

Boston College must travel across the country to play @BYU. Not an easy thing to do to open your season. Atmoshpere wise, BYU is a very hostile road environment. The game will be a sellout and with the new optimism of BYU right now the fans will be going crazy. BYU had a down year last year but they should be rejuvenated this upcoming season.

More on the home field advantage. BC is a turf team who will be playing on grass @BYU. This should pose problems.

The biggest problem BC will face in terms of road environment is weather. You have thinner air and the game had a time change to 2:30pm eastern time. Meaning the sun will be blistering and this hurts BC in a big way.

Check out this quote from BC HC O'Brien after a scrimmage.

"It's a starting point, but we've got to get much better if we want to be a good football team," head coach Tom O'Brien said. "A little more enthusiasm would have suited me. I think the heat this morning took something out of them."

GOOD LUCK PLAYING @BYU!

People don't realize BYU is full of 24-25 year olds because of mormon missions. They should dominate the 19 year olds from Massachsetts.

How has O'Brien prepared BC in their previous opening games of the season? Lets take a look.

Last year BC traveled to Ball St. and won 19-11. Not very impressive. It is safe to say BYU will be a lot tougher. 2 years ago BC lost by 4pts at home to Wake Forest! O'Brien has to have his team much better prepared if he wants to travel into BYU and come out with a win. I don't think it will happen whether BC is well prepared or not. If by chance BC isn't well prepared, that is an added bonus and I should have a winning ticket before the game even starts!

BC has an unproven QB while BYU has two proven experienced QBs. Doesn't bode well for BC traveling across the country into hostile situation where many variables favor BYU.

BC lost their entire receiver corps while BYU only lost their top one as he is taking his Mormon Mission.

Everybody talks about the size and strenght of BC's Offensive line and I even saw a post about it in detail here at MJ's. I say, check out BYU's, they are bigger, stronger, and older than BC's.

BC offense has never faced a 3-3-5 defense before which BYU rotates 7 linebackers and blitzes constantly. Remember, BC has unproven QB and WR's!!! Lets not forget BC has no proven RB while BYU has 2 solid RB"s. Don't forget USC has played BYU 2 times and both times the offense had trouble adjusting to the BYU defensive scheme. Unless BC QB is better than Leinart, or BC having a better OC than Norm Chow, I think there is a high probability BC will have a hard time adjusting too! :yup

On the defensive side of the ball, BC lost 3 of their DB's. BYU has a solid passing attack with very good QB play.

Plain and simple, this is too much to ask for BC to come into BYU and win. I would love to add more to this wager but it is the 1st game of the year and you really don't have a benchmark on any teams. All in all, I am very confident in BYU and I explained why. Hopefully people appreciate me taking the time to post an analysis whether you are for, against or neutral on this game. I like seeing other people post analysis so I do the same. I would like to encourage more posters to do it. Then we can not only know more about the game/teams but learn more handicapping techniques. You learn nothing with just posted plays. (except winners/losers)

Good luck to all those who choose to follow along with BYU! I don't see too many here on BYU. Maybe this post will change the #'s.