My Early Football Picks

The Judge

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Scott4USC said:
What really impressed me was the Oregon WR's. What an awesome group. Not many programs in the country have a better WR corps than Oregon.
I was at this game and I can only believe that you did not watch it on TV. Granted Clemens passed for 348 yards but that was against an absolutely horrible Houston secondary. Seriously, it was embarrasing to watch.

In comparison, Houston's Kolb completed passes for 312 yards so there was very little pass coverage on either side.

I was not impressed with Oregon and stand by my assertion of a couple weeks ago that they are not a "quality opponent" for USC. Leinart should destroy the Ducks on September 24th.
 

Scott4USC

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#1 USC plays @Oregon. Always tough no matter what team Oregon has. That stadium literally echoes. When players do walk through, they say if you clap you hear it go around the stadium. Crazy when it is a packed house. But I am sure you already know that.

#2 After watching the game I am now a little more confident in USC's chances in beating Oregon. And I already felt USC would come out with a win anyways. The offensive talent Oregon has is scary good. Only weakness they have is OL. Their WR's are big and fast. Create problem for any defense.

#3 You are right Houston doesn't have great pass D. Neither does Oregon! :) That is why I am more confident in a Trojan victory on Sept. 24th. Now I am more worried about ASU! If USC gets beat this year, it will be against Oregon or ASU.

#4 It was the first game of season for both teams. Oregon in late Oct. and Nov. will be a very dangerous team.

#5 Houston is a tough team to prepare for. If USC played Houston @UH, I think USC would easily give up over 250 yards passing. Tough team to prepare for to open your season against.

Remember, Nebraska was scared $hitless to open their season @houston. They backed out! :mj07: Mighty tough Big 12!
 

THE KOD

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Scott4USC said:
But this is it for me for futures. I'll have no regrets if I win it. Not gonna kick myself for not betting more. :) But what happens if I lose! :scared
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Oh I am going to just kick myself for not betting more. :nutkick :nutkick

Excuse me while I go and puke off the porch.

OK I feel better now.

What happens if you lose. Then I am :mj07: :mj07: my ass off. I will never root harder for a loss to USC in my life.

Maybe I can put some kind of a curse on them
The rat bastids.
Hope it works.

Can you take one of them snap shot thingees to confirm all your future bets. In all the excitement I lost track.

Fill in the appropriate amounts.

Oh yeh , the one they call Kosar says he is wishing you all the best in everything that you do.
Not sure what that means though.

KOD
 

Scott4USC

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Adding 2 units Wisconsin -1.5 over Bowling Green

I was reading my post over about why I like Wiscy and then saw G-man2 saying I had 6 units on it. I thought about it and I really should put 6 units on it. I really like how I handicapped this game and feel this is a winner. Now I officially have 6 units on Wisconsin.


BYU update :thumb:

Weather forecast in Provo for Saturday is supposed to be low 90's. Exactly what I expected and wanted to see.

I might be the only one here at MJ's on BYU, but I will def. cash this ticket. I would not be surprised if BYU wins 34-17. You have no idea what BC is getting themselves into.

Many posters here might not be aware about BYU players and their age. Mormon missions and returning players. For example, BYU only lists 5 redshirt freshman on 2-deep depth chart but they have 2 older OL, and 3 DL who are not listed. BYU every year gets players back that did not play last year.

BC HC O'Brien released his depth chart and there are 18 sophomores and/or redshirt freshman on his two deep traveling squad. Remember me talking about DEPTH, HEAT, and THIN AIR!!!!!!!!

I got BYU +165 ML and now it is +122 ML. I am not hedging it one bit because I think BYU wins outright. Vegas is BEGGING for east coast dollars. I see many MJ posters taking BC. If BYU wins tom. night, don't be shocked if BYU runs the table this year! They are going to surprise a lot of people starting tom. afternoon in their old BYU uniforms. The crowd will be going crazy!


Memphis update :thumb:

I think Memphis is prepared for this game and here is reason why.

The real news is in Memphis, DC Dunn has forced his defense to start @ 5:00AM each morning a good 90 minutes ahead of the the rest of the team, and papers reports his defense response has been more than positive. Last year Dunn was embarrassed with his defense and as you can see, he is fixing it. Memphis will win this game with defense. The offense is the reason this is a 2 unit.

Why do I have confidence in Dunn improving Memphis D from last year? Because 2 years ago he took Memphis D with less talent and made them a top 10 D in the country.

I wish I could have more confidence in Memphis QB and OL but I don't. Therefore, it is a 2 unit play.


I have NC ST. +5.5 and +6 but I would not be surprised if they won outright. However, I decided not to play the ML since it dropped so much. This game will be decided by a FG either way. I give the home team advantage so I call for a Wolfpack win by 3pts! Don't believe all the V-Tech hype and Vick. As an added bonus, NC ST. is Phile Steeeles underdog play of the week and he has been SOLID with this play for years. Proven winner week in week out. But I didn't need him to convince me to take the wolfpack as I put my wager in weeks before and now benefit with tremendous value. Hopefully others jumped on too!


As for my big 3 unit Ohio play. Solich is taking this game serious and I don't think Northwestern is good enough to win by double digits. Wouldn't surprise me if this game gets decided late in 4th quarter. I think Northwestern wins by a TD. But I lose with Tulsa +17 last night based on same reasons. :cursin:


I most likely will be adding a good size wager on Syracuse. If I do I'll post it. Not sure I'll be able to give a write-up because I'll be up in Big Bear. Since the game is on Sun. I can see how my Sat. plays go. Hopefully well. ;) It will help determine how many units to put on Syracuse. Although I lost a 1/2pt because the line is now -2. :cursin:


Here are some plays I liked but didn't quite qualify as official plays.

Middle TN ST.
Florida Int.
UCLA
Georgia Tech
USC 1h
USC/Hawaii OVER
Texas A&M
Miami Florida
Boise State

******


Scott-Atlanta

Not sure what was the purpose of your post. How does it contribute to this thread? Are you trying to attack my integrity with false accusations? I hope you win as much as I do so we both are happy at the end of the year! Right now you seem bitter. Cheer up! :toast:
 
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Scott4USC

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mode the lode said:
SCOTT. S.U. PLAYS SUN. 1.30, PM EST

Thanks! Wouldn't that suck if they cover and I forgot to put my action on it. Might have saved me $$$ if I didn't catch it. Thanks again. Gotta remember to take SDSU before 7pm tom.
 

THE KOD

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Scott4USC said:
Scott-Atlanta

Not sure what was the purpose of your post.
...........................................................

I believe in freedom of speech and reserve the right to express opposing viewpoints.

And you of all people should have no problem with that as long as I support it with facts.
 

Scott4USC

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Scott-Atlanta said:
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I believe in freedom of speech and reserve the right to express opposing viewpoints.

And you of all people should have no problem with that as long as I support it with facts.

You should not attack my integrity. I encourage constructive criticism against my picks or analysis. I have no problem with that. I also appreciate posters adding onto my plays or pointing out things I might have not mentioned. Either positive or negative. I also appreciate those who wish me luck. I do not appreciate those who come into my thread hoping I lose. I do not care for those who make false accusations against me. Attacking my integrity has nothing to do with this thread. You are shamelessly trying to turn my thread into a soap opera. If you don't like me or think I am making up my wagers, do yourself a favor and put me on your ignore list. MJ gives you this option and I highly suggest you take advantage of it. You provide nothing productive in "my" thread. Start a thread of your own and bash me all you want. Why ruin this one? I have not done anything to you and in fact ignore you most of the time. It is sad what posters will do for a cheap laugh. Grow up. Learn to respect others.
 
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arrow

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scott love your write ups, i know the time it takes to put it all out, and then take shit for it sometimes, BUT i am friends with a few wisconsin boosters who i play poker with and the whispers around here is that wisc will really struggle this year with both offensive and defensive lines. taking a big risk against a very mobile q.b. I'm not sure after reports i got if wisconsin will win 6 games this year.football is really down in wisconsin this year. I don't believe the q.b. play will be of any leader capability with such a porous line. If you want to look where all the big lineman are going to in the big ten , Take a good hard look at IOWA's recruiting the last two years. Best ever for lineman in a strong tradition of sending lineman to the nfl. Best of luck this year and good luck with whiskey sat.
 

Scott4USC

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Adding 2 more units Wisconsin -1 -113 over Bowling Green (pinnacle) :eek:

I can't help myself. Line keeps dropping and I will continue to pound it. This is too good to be true. I was going to be happy if I got -3.5 and bought it to -3 -120. I knew I had decent chance at getting that but never expected -1.

Now Wisconsin is officially an 8unit play!!! Glad it is on regular TV otherwise I wouldn't get to watch it. I got a feeling this is going to be a huge day!


arrow

Thanks for the genuine "warning" and nice words. I appreciate it and hope you post more often in my threads. Glad you enjoy my analysis and people can enjoy them even if they are on the other side. Funny to see all interesting comments. Look at here at MJ's. Posters with BG avatars taking Wisconsin and posters with WIsconson avatar saying take BG. This Trojan is pounding Wisconsin.

****

I was handicapping this game weeks ago and I was little worried about the offensive skill positions of BG, speed of BG, and loss of defensive players. But I lerned that it is true UW lost players, especially their entire DL, the backups did play a lot last year. Remember, the DL for Wisconsin all went down with injury I think. Or most of them. This actually isn't a very inexperience defense like it looks on paper. 2nd, Barry Alveraz has been touting how fast his defense is this year. LB unit is very solid.

I was also concerned about the UW OL. Still am in a way. I read that the OL in their spring game SUCKED! But you expect that having new starters. Also read they have improved since. You might be worried about the OL against a Michigan defense, but remember, this is a weak BG defense who is physically undersized.

I also was worried about their QB Stocco. He was average at best last year and not a passing threat. Reports are he improved a lot and we all know he has super talented WR's to throw too. If Wiscy can rush the ball against this weak BG defense, it will open the passsing game. Remember, BG is starting that true freshman DB. Wiscy has great WR's that a senrior DB might have trouble.

Step back for a moment. Wisconsin FB weighs between 250-270 pounds. My guess is closer to 270. Big boy. THe DT's for BG weigh 270-280 and have NO DEPTH! FB vs DT!

Remember, all these $hit teams BG played last year, ALL were able to run it up the gut against them. I think it is a strong probability Wiscy does the same. BG has never played a team as physical as Wisconsin. Remember my quote saying Richt said Wiscy was more physical than any team he played. Good coaching done up @Wiscy.

You know what, I really have not mentioned at all about this game being played @ Wisconsin. Tough place to play and this really helps Stocco.

All I need is a fawking Wisconsin win. Win by 2pts, I don't care. This is too much value to pass up and I surely took advantage of it. Hopefully I don't pay a price! But I'll take Wiscy -1, -1.5 where Coach Alveraz is basically trying to win my bet for me! :)

Here is to Wisconsin lining up across Bowling Green and smacking them right in the mouth! BIG TEN STYLE!

I encourage others to share with me in my confidence with the Badgers. Vegas is giving us too much value to pass up with Wisconsin -1 @home against an inferior opponent in the trenches. It is still early in the season but I am confident Wisconsin wins.


FYI, all my plays are listed in post #1 in this thread!
 
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watrdogg

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Excellent write up. I'm on Wisconsin as well. :D Good luck with the rest of your plays. :mj14:
 

trolln4walii

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Wishing you nothing but the best for a great season Scott. Although you may be a "little" long winded on some of your posts ;) and "perhaps" a tad bias toward those Trojans :mj07: I do enjoy reading your threads. Always some great info in there. Here's hoping you cash lots of winning tickets this year :mj14:
 

Scott4USC

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I am happy I got UCLA +10 -105 for 2 units over SDSU. (pinny) As I mentioned before in this thread, I bought back my UCLA -7 bet. I may get lucky and get middle or win one of the sides. 7 and 10 pts are key #'s. I usually never win these but I am not as confident in UCLA as I was 3+ weeks ago. I win a little more if UCLA covers. I set it up that way.


Thanks for nice words from both of you, much appreciated. Glad you enjoy my write-ups and hopefully you profit from reading my posts. You def. should see different angles and see how I handicap.

Yes they sometimes get long but I am a fast typer and it really doesn't take me long to post. I already did the work handicapping on my own. I like to get everything out there so you can make the best decision for yourself.

Yes I may be biased to USC but have I ever lost a posted big wager on USC? NO! Will I? Sure. Hopefully not soon. But I always explain why I am backing USC or am confident. Let me tell you, from watching todays games, USC is so far ahead of rest of CFB. Not joking. That is why I am confident in my future plays.
 

Irish

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Hey Scott best of luck with your plays...I'm riding the warriors tonight with the wave of chalk the condoms (ha) are giving. Good luck with your three peat buddy.

Cheers
Irish
 

gjn23

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why dont you like ucla.....they've never lost to sdsu (20 games) and have only won by less than dd twice

i've lived in san diego for 14 years and consistantly made money betting against them when on tv....they always tank....esp vs bcs teams.
 

dreamcrusha

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Thanks Scooter

Thanks Scooter

I am from WI and you were right, consensus around here was ride BG. Your write up convinced me to be a homer for the day and boy did it PAY! Thanks Bro. Good luck rest of the season, smooth sailin from here you loaded up on WI.
 

Scott4USC

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This BYU game is going for $hit. Very frustrating. BYU gets ball inside BC 25 yard line 3 times and gets only 3pts. WHAT THE FAWK! Then just now BYU gets ball to BC 34 and gets 4th and 3 and punts. Stupid holding penalties and lack of execution. Pissing me off. Keeping me from having a huge day. :cursin: BYU maybe doesn't deserve to win but they def. should be within 3pts.

Good news is Wisconsin covered for my big 8 unit play and I have wireless here in the mountains. So I am happy about that. Frustrated with BYU. Oh well.

Dreamcrusha, glad I talked you into betting $$$ on your team! :)

15 more minutes until USC PLAYS!!!!!!!!!!!
 

Scott4USC

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gjn23

I just lost confidence in the play. It is not like I think SDSU covers I just am not confident in the Bruins. I was very upset when their #1 DT got hurt. Practice reports for UCLA were not positive and I heard UCLA WR's were underachieving. Problem with them is they do not get separation. On flip side SDSU practice reports have been positive and I have a bad feeling UCLA squeaks out a win. I am hoping UCLA wins by 7-10pts!!!
 
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