My Mlb Experiment 2003:

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

since i'm on march break and i've got some time on my hands, taking a break from all the house stuff i'm doin, i've crunched some numbers together and i've come up with a little experiment i'd like to try out.

this is based on teams not deviating BADLY from their records from last year.

GROUP A:
oakland
anaheim
san fran
minny
st.loo
atlanta
L.A
arizona

this group above had the BEST TOTAL money won last season.
which constitutes +1000 units OR more won, had you bet ONE unit on them EVERY game for the whole season

EX: oakland record:105-62
MONEY won total on road and home = $2973
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GROUP B: the bottom feeders on the road
these teams did dreadful trying to win money on the ROAD for the bettors.

detroit -2115
TB - 602 ( not bad for their road record....)
Milwaukee -1192
colorado -1655 ( VERY overated team on the road.)
KC -1469
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my experiment is to pick two teams from BOTH groups and BET for (in group a ) and against ( group b) them for the WHOLE season.

my group a picks ( bet on ALL their games) would be:
1) oakland ( seems that their rotation is still intact )
2) L.A
( hopefully they'll have a better year than last and i think there'd be value in their lines this season.)

my group b picks ( bet against them on the road ALL season)would be:

1) detroit
2) kc
3) milwaukee

seems that these three teams will have problems winning on the road again this year....

any thoughts?

or should i add any teams to the list?
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ONE team that i would bet against everytime during the day would be the NY yanks.
they only owned a 32 - 26 record during the day, but i'm POSITIVE the chalk would have been around -190 or so, making this a somewhat profitable angle last season.
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just some early thoughts, but i think i will do this experiment with the three teams whenever they're on the road.
they have been consistantly awful on the road for three season now.....

 

[SmashMouth]

I'm coming up with something similar lol

 

[homerh]

good luck tv
hope your project will be a profitable one

 

[mush]

Just curious. Did you factor in the juice for the teams. for example how many times did the A's lse a game when they were a 2-1 Fav?

Mush

 

[Keyser Soze]

I was already planning on making the Tigers my slut this year. After reading your post I decided to look at them even a bit closer, since the juice should be relatively heavy throughout the year, I took a look at last years performance against the run line at home and on the road, here is what I found:


ROAD LOSS By 2 or More 46
ROAD LOSS By 1 14
ROAD WIN 19


HOME LOSS By 2 or More 40
HOME LOSS By 1 6
HOME WIN 29

An interesting side note:

VS the Yankees on the road 0-6 but 3 one run losses
VS the Yankees at home 0-3 but 2 one run losses

They also won 3 of their first 4 road games of the season last year, but after that only won more than one in a row twice the remainder of the season.

They were also 9-10 straight up vs. the Tribe

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Just curious. Did you factor in the juice for the teams. for example how many times did the A's lse a game when they were a 2-1 Fav?

YES, the juice was factored in for ALL teams.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Keyser Soze, thanks for the info.....!!!

i like your idea:

let's make detroit our bee-atch this season!!!!

may a runline play and regular play against them....on the road.

sounds kinky.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

more detroit news:

more detroit news:

Bonderman earns spot

Bonderman hasn't pitched above Class A ball.

Rookie Jeremy Bonderman picked the right time to have his worst outing this spring. Bonderman allowed eight runs and nine hits (including four home runs) in four innings March 22 against the Indians. After the poor showing, the 20-year-old Bonderman was told by first-year manager Alan Trammell that he had won a starting job. "He got roughed up, but I don't care," said Trammell, who made up his mind before Bonderman pitched. "I think he can handle this. I'm going to stick to my decision."
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this poor kid should get pounded on the road this year....i feel sorry for Detroit...but not THAT much.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

damn, i may become the authority on detroit if i keep on doing this...

detroit 3rd baseman:

Eric Munson, who's learning to play third base, is on the verge of starting the season with the Tigers, the Detroit Free Press reported March 18. "If he continues to play anywhere like he has been, he's going to make the team," Trammell told the newspaper.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

here's detroit's opening sched for a few games...

i hate it when they play against their own division....they tend to play better....

but we'll still make them our beetches...!!

Mon. 31 Minnesota 1:05 PM Comerica Park

Apr.

Wed. 2 Minnesota 7:05 PM Comerica Park
Thu. 3 Minnesota 1:05 PM Comerica Park

Fri. 4 at Chicago Sox 4:05 PM U.S. Cellular Field
Sat. 5 at Chicago Sox 2:05 PM U.S. Cellular Field
Sun. 6 at Chicago Sox 2:05 PM U.S. Cellular Field

Tue. 8 Kansas City 7:05 PM Comerica Park
Wed. 9 Kansas City 1:05 PM Comerica Park
Thu. 10 Kansas City 1:05 PM Comerica Park

Fri. 11 Chicago Sox 7:05 PM Comerica Park
Sat. 12 Chicago Sox 1:05 PM Comerica Park
Sun. 13 Chicago Sox 1:05 PM Comerica Park

 

[Keyser Soze]

Lots of home games in the first few weeks........Certainly like them a bit better on the road........I hear what you are saying about becoming an expert on this hapless squad, but dollars are dollars and I'll take them any way I can make them.......In reality I would love to see them sweep that first home series, and then we can smack 'em up as they head down to Chi-Town.......Chi-Town Baby, Chi-Town!

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

some things i've observed from the last two seasons:

1) detroit sucks on the road, and looks to be a bit worse off than they were last season (pitching -wise)

2) oakland should post a similar record this season( around 101 or high 90's), barring any injuries....

3) florida continues to play well at home ( usually 11- 12 games above .500, yet they suck on the road....usually 15 - 18 games below .500

if this team could win on the road, they could be a second place team....

4) milwaukee continues to struggle on the road as well...being 30 games below .500 / but are we willing to pay the juice????

5) san diego looks like they will be worse off than last season...so bet against them on the road.

6) colorado may hit 20 games under .500 on the road as well this season.
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inter -league play ( yeah JACK, i know how much you hate it...)

there were some INTERESTING records from last season:

boston went 5-13
oakland went 16 - 2
atlanta went 15 - 3
cinci went 2 - 10 and 4 - 11 the season before.
milwaukee went 2 - 10 and 5 -10 the year before

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

some reminders for myself:

1) bet against detroit the whole month of april and september.

2) bet against them on the road, double down against them when they win one.

3) almost HALF of milwaukees wins were against FOUR teams????

houston / st.loo / san diego / cubs

 

[dude]

TV

TV

Good luck with this new system. I'll be following along. For those of you who want to know where Joe Public put most of their money last year, here's the Top and bottom 5 teams.

Top 5
1) NYY
2) Philly
3) Atl
4) Hou
5) BoSox

Bottom 5
1) Sea
2) Det
3) Pitt
4) TB
5) Mil

I was surprised to see Philly at #2 at the Top and Sea at #1 in the bottom :shrug:

Dude

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Bottom 5
1) Sea
2) Det
3) Pitt
4) TB
5) Mil

how the hell could you NOT bet against detroit and milwaukee all season?????

wierd.

 

[dude]

TV

TV

The bottom 5 is the less amount of money placed on those teams to win. So in fact people were betting againts them to win. Sorry I didn't explain it better.

Dude

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh


gotcha.