My Resolution to make money doing what I love.

SmashMouth

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I'm 30 yrs old and have been gambling in some way shape or form for 25 yrs now. I didn't have a shot, my father who is now my best friend is a degenerate from way back. I knew how to read the daily racing form by the time I was 6 and normally saved my allowance and gift money for the summer meet at Monmouth park. I was an avid poker player and shark by the time I was 8 and betting on football by the time I was 11.
Nobody spends more time reading, writing,watching, handicapping or just thinking about sports, horses, or cards than I do. Or At least I doubt it. For some reason in the last two years something has changed. With the exception of the horses I have lossed alot of money. I used to win football pools alot and used to take money from my books religiously. Now I lose alot more often than I win. I picked pro football in my Hilton style contest at an unbelievably bad 40 percent. College Football has gotten so bad that now I just go opposite myself.
Here is why I think I have gotten so bad. #1 My money mangement has been bad if not terrible. It seems I'm always trying to dig out of a hole. # 2 Way to many action plays. I bet games just to bet. Bet horses just to bet, instead of waiting for something I really like. #3 I outhink myself too much. Instead of just going with my leans I throw to many things into the mix in my capping instead of keeping it simple and only factoring in what really matters. #4 I make too many bad bets. I go against home dogs to much in the NFL. I bet too many bad teams. Teams that just find ways to lose consistently. There are many other reasons that I have become such a colossal loser, but these are the main ones. My goal for this year is to show a profit. Those of you who have been smart enough to make a living fading me lately that changes now. The 4 or five books who I have kept open the past two years, I'm coming for my money.You have been warned.

Jan1 I played The following:
Oklahoma -5 2 units
over 53 1 unit.
 

TLove

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Smashmouth,

Good Luck to you this year.

How much Poker do you play???
 

THE KOD

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Good luck Smash. Thanks for the win the other day where we went opposite. I cashed that in for a dime.

You seem to have it figured out now just make the changes you need to make and do it.


Best of Luck in 2003


Scott King of the Dogs
 

maverick2112

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Smash.............I am just like you in that I spend hrs upon hrs studying sports. I can almost tell you who won the NBA,NFL title for the past 20 years. I also seem to be losing more in the past couple of years while gaining more knowledge(I think). I am starting to wonder if one of my downfalls is the internet because

1. Maybe to much information clouds your judgement
2. Watching line moves clouds your judgement

One thing I have thought about the past year.........I cant think of too many things in life where you spend more time on whatever it is and you dont gain anything........Example

1. Sports......the more practice the better you become
2. Knowledge......the more you study the smarter you become on the subject
3. Sports Gambling.......the more time spent does'nt mean squat....

But the problem I have with this sports betting is I can spend 20 hrs a week on a certain game and Joe Blow can spend 2 minutes and he does just as good as me. Does anybody really ever win?? I see a lot of so called good cappers do good for a while but then they open up their own service, which tells me they want to make $$ off of other people and dont have the confidence in their own picks.
 
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ferdville

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Smashmouth - good post. I am all the way with you on #s 1-4. That is me to a tee. Very interesting to hear people talking about the problem with over-analysis and too much information. I agree totally. This was especially true when I was playing the ponies every day. Found that there was just too much information and it made it nearly impossible to make a pick. I ended up having to install a system of vetoes. For example, I had to throw out any horse whose jockey or trainer won less than 5% of their races. You can do the same with sports - for example, never bet a team that has lost xxx in a row. Stuff like that. Sure you will get burned on occasion - but over the long run, you will come out ahead. I am working with a mathematician now to come up with a veto system for college football. He is far more knowledgeable than me, and has years of statistics to work with. We will share the info when it is ready.
 

SmashMouth

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Thanks for posting ferd. I swear I'm going to dummy down all my systems this year. Especially the ponies.
+2.3 units for the year so far!!!
 

TORONTO-VIGILANTE

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"...Quo fas et gloria ducunt..."
MAV :

I see a lot of so called good cappers do good for a while but then they open up their own service, which tells me they want to make $$ off of other people and dont have the confidence in their own picks.


I have to disagree with this statement.

Not ALL peeps lose confidence in their picks when they start charging for them.

Who knows, i'm doin well in baseball the last 2 years, why shouldn't i just up and disappear and charge for my picks WHILE making money betting on games as well??

makes sense to me.;)
 

TIME TO MAKE $$$

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TORONTO-VIGILANTE said:
MAV :




I have to disagree with this statement.

Not ALL peeps lose confidence in their picks when they start charging for them.

Who knows, i'm doin well in baseball the last 2 years, why shouldn't i just up and disappear and charge for my picks WHILE making money betting on games as well??

makes sense to me.;)


Something in the works Chris??
 

maverick2112

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TORONTO...............What I could never understand and no tout ever seems to be able to answer is.............if I decide to start my own service charging $100 a month for picks and I have 100 clients.........Thats an extra $10,000 per month, with all the time it takes emailing clients, advertising, setting up web site, phone work etc.etc.etc Why, if I am so confident in my picks that I will take your $$ for them, wouldnt it be a lot easier and hassle free for me to just up my own wagers for a small amount to make the extra $$ and not do the service thing at all???????
 

ChuckyTheGoat

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Two points I'd make:

1) No doubt that more information becomes available as technology gets better. But it's available to the oddsmaker, too. I have to believe that the lines get sharper over time, too. I would just think that's the natural progression.

2) maverick's last point is key to why 99% of services won't work. It's not like you're simply piggybacking somebody's picks. Said service needs to spend time on marketing and getting clients. Time is now allocated to running a service and not to finding winners. I don't think a person is quite as hungry when his clients are paying his salary.
 
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