I'm making notes on each game as I co along so I may as well copy/paste as I go so I hopefully get some input from you all. Maybe we can tweak each others thought process along the way.
Cincinnati/Washington
Can't take Cincy as they are just awful on the road, but no way to justify the big price on the Nats. Gio Gonzalez's WHIP of 1.69 has steadily gotten worse as the season goes along and the Reds are the 7th best team in the league against LHP while Desclafani has an better WHIP of 1.30 in his last 7 starts and it's slightly better than his YTD number so you kinda know what you get with him. Nats hitting vs a RHP is just outside the top 10 in MLB. I don't see a big enough gap here to justify laying -190 on the Nats, though. Over 9.5 looks like a better play, but I'll pass all the way around here.
San Diego/Cubs
Walker lockett is a gas can and the Cubs mash RHP. With Hendricks on the mound for the Cubs and San Diego dead last against RHP in the majors this one looks like a no brainer. The price is steep at -255 and I know a lot (including me) never like to lay over -200, but this looks as safe as a play as you can get. Maybe good to toss into a parlay?
NYY/Boston
With Chance Adams the listed pitcher for the Yankees it's not really a game you can handicap all that well. Likely pass this game due to lack of info. Both the Yankees and Boston are top 3 vs RHP but with Nathan Evoladi on the mound for Boston it represents a challenge even to Yankee hitters with his sub 1.00 WHIP. No real way to know what Adams will do though. Pass
CWS/Tampa
Carlos Rondon just doesn't allow base runners and is actually getting better as the season goes along. Tampa is in the top 10 vs LHP, but I find good pitching usually beats good hitting. Blake Snell, also is not a fan of allowing base runners. The total in this game is 7 and I can see why, there may not be that many hits in this game let alone runs. With CWS in the bottom third of the league against LHP I have to give a slight edge to Tampa here, but not -160's worth.
Miami/Philly
Urena has been pretty consistent for Miami all season with a WHIP of 1.23 he should keep Miami in the game Philly is mid-pack vs RHP. Zach Eflin has been lights out for Philly, especially at home where he's only given up 3 runs in one recent start and that was against the Dodgers who mash RHP. Miami, not so much. This will be a low scoring game so that's always a concern when backing a big favorite, but -165 actually seems like a fair price in this case. Miami 20-34 on the road while Philly is 18 games over .500 at home. Philly is a solid play IMO.
STL/Pit
Another tough one, Gomber has only started one game this year and that was against Cincy who hit LHP pretty well, better than Pittsburgh, but still, it isn't much to go on. Ivan Nova is gonna give up runs, the question with him is we never know how many. He gave up 3 runs in 5 innings against the Mets last time out and that pretty horrible when you think about how bad the Mets are against RHP. The Pirates are much better against RHP than LHP so this is another tough one. The way the Pirates have been playing at home I do give them a slight edge and the price would indicate the books agree. Play on the Pirates here and maybe a play on over 8.5 as well.
Col/Mil
I'm still stinging from the Col loss last night. I don't play many parlays and certainly not with multiple dogs in them, but it was a nice ticket that got walked off on that home run. Moving on.....
We get Anderson vs Peralta today and Anderson for sure has been lights out recently with a WHIP of .91 in his last 7 games pitching at least 6 innings in all of them. Milwaukee is bottom third against LHP. Milwaukee starts Peralta who is also not allowing base runners these days. With Colorado mid pack against RHP I think the matchup favors Colorado slightly. I'd like more than +120 before I pull the trigger, though. I'm not sure how this game has a total of 8.5 but I'm buying in at that. UNDER is never my favorite bet, but it's the only one that makes sense here.
Second half of the card in the next post.
Cincinnati/Washington
Can't take Cincy as they are just awful on the road, but no way to justify the big price on the Nats. Gio Gonzalez's WHIP of 1.69 has steadily gotten worse as the season goes along and the Reds are the 7th best team in the league against LHP while Desclafani has an better WHIP of 1.30 in his last 7 starts and it's slightly better than his YTD number so you kinda know what you get with him. Nats hitting vs a RHP is just outside the top 10 in MLB. I don't see a big enough gap here to justify laying -190 on the Nats, though. Over 9.5 looks like a better play, but I'll pass all the way around here.
San Diego/Cubs
Walker lockett is a gas can and the Cubs mash RHP. With Hendricks on the mound for the Cubs and San Diego dead last against RHP in the majors this one looks like a no brainer. The price is steep at -255 and I know a lot (including me) never like to lay over -200, but this looks as safe as a play as you can get. Maybe good to toss into a parlay?
NYY/Boston
With Chance Adams the listed pitcher for the Yankees it's not really a game you can handicap all that well. Likely pass this game due to lack of info. Both the Yankees and Boston are top 3 vs RHP but with Nathan Evoladi on the mound for Boston it represents a challenge even to Yankee hitters with his sub 1.00 WHIP. No real way to know what Adams will do though. Pass
CWS/Tampa
Carlos Rondon just doesn't allow base runners and is actually getting better as the season goes along. Tampa is in the top 10 vs LHP, but I find good pitching usually beats good hitting. Blake Snell, also is not a fan of allowing base runners. The total in this game is 7 and I can see why, there may not be that many hits in this game let alone runs. With CWS in the bottom third of the league against LHP I have to give a slight edge to Tampa here, but not -160's worth.
Miami/Philly
Urena has been pretty consistent for Miami all season with a WHIP of 1.23 he should keep Miami in the game Philly is mid-pack vs RHP. Zach Eflin has been lights out for Philly, especially at home where he's only given up 3 runs in one recent start and that was against the Dodgers who mash RHP. Miami, not so much. This will be a low scoring game so that's always a concern when backing a big favorite, but -165 actually seems like a fair price in this case. Miami 20-34 on the road while Philly is 18 games over .500 at home. Philly is a solid play IMO.
STL/Pit
Another tough one, Gomber has only started one game this year and that was against Cincy who hit LHP pretty well, better than Pittsburgh, but still, it isn't much to go on. Ivan Nova is gonna give up runs, the question with him is we never know how many. He gave up 3 runs in 5 innings against the Mets last time out and that pretty horrible when you think about how bad the Mets are against RHP. The Pirates are much better against RHP than LHP so this is another tough one. The way the Pirates have been playing at home I do give them a slight edge and the price would indicate the books agree. Play on the Pirates here and maybe a play on over 8.5 as well.
Col/Mil
I'm still stinging from the Col loss last night. I don't play many parlays and certainly not with multiple dogs in them, but it was a nice ticket that got walked off on that home run. Moving on.....
We get Anderson vs Peralta today and Anderson for sure has been lights out recently with a WHIP of .91 in his last 7 games pitching at least 6 innings in all of them. Milwaukee is bottom third against LHP. Milwaukee starts Peralta who is also not allowing base runners these days. With Colorado mid pack against RHP I think the matchup favors Colorado slightly. I'd like more than +120 before I pull the trigger, though. I'm not sure how this game has a total of 8.5 but I'm buying in at that. UNDER is never my favorite bet, but it's the only one that makes sense here.
Second half of the card in the next post.
