I find it helpful sometimes to type out what I have analyzed. Since I wrote out so much, I figured I may as well post it here and let everyone read my thoughts. This is basically how I see the running and passing games fairing in each game. Input more than welcome. If you think I am way off base in something I'd like to know about it. I've used some abbreviations that might not be understood by all...sorry about that.
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Game notes:
NYG Dayne held out last week due to "odd" swelling of his calf. Questionable as of Wed.
NYG Barber excelled not having to share the load with Dayne.
GB has some injury probs on run D. Not the best run stopping unit in the league. Neutral matchup.
GB Green limited because they were playing catchup all last week. Shouldn?t be the case here.
NYG sub-standard rush D. Allowed Clev to run a lot on them. Good matchup for Ahman Green.
NYG Warner playing very well...just not throwing passes for scores.
GB pass D lit up last week. Bounceback or exposed? NYG passing considered a good matchup here...I?m not so sure.
GB Favre and Walker are really on a roll. Walker #3 WR in the league.
NYG pass D inconsistent. Not considered good. Should be a good day for GB passing.
I?m thinking: Over? Non-divisional game, bounceback situation for GB. They should win SU, but ATS...ya, probably ATS too.
I could see GB killing clock in the 2H if they have a lead (2H Under). I suspect NYG away from home will be pretty bad most weeks.
PHI Westbook?s lead blocker out for the year - could spell trouble for Phil running game. PHI?s goalline offence expected to suffer.
CHI run D is right in the middle of the pack (16th). Injuries to Urlacher and Boone hurt.
CHI Jones #2 RB in the league, going for 3rd straight 100 yard game. Bears run O #6 in the league overall.
PHI run D also middle of the pack. CHI?s got some O-line injuries/problems.
Both running matchups considered to be "good".
PHI considered to have a "great" matchup throwing this week. CHI multiple injuries in secondary. CHI pass D badly overmatched & tired last week vs Minn.
CHI QB Grossman out for year - Johnathon Quinn now the starter, and he?s not too hot (then again, Grossman was the worst-rated passer in the league, so this can?t be THAT much worse).
CHI QB Quinn was 0/3 for 0 yards LW filling in after Grossman got hurt.
PHI D leads the league in QB sacks. However, PHI D has given up a lot of passing yards this year...just not that many scores.
I?m thinking: Tough game to call. I want to take the Bears, but those passing stats have me scared. If Philly has one weakness it looks like it is run D, and CHI is a team that can take advantage of that (unlike Det, last week). Sounds like Philly will have to pass more. Chi may just give it to Jones all day long to ease Quinn into the lineup. But if CHI gets behind then what? Still think Under maybe? Maybe backdoor Bears cover. PHI on the road for the 2nd week in a row.
WASH RB Portis expected to do well here.
CLEV run D supposedly not good (though I think they are underrated). They got carved up @ NYG last week though.
Being at home may help Clev a bit. This is another team that I think will perform much better @ home than on the road.
CLEV back home after 2 road games.
CLEV RB Lee Suggs MAY play his first game of the year. William Green has been not bad filling in...mixing in Suggs could screw things up now?
WASH has the top-ranked run D in the league thus far - though they?ve only played one team (NYG) with any kind of running attack.
I don?t think WASH run D is as good as advertised. Still, Clev is not a super-running team either.
WASH QB Brunell inconsistent.
CLEV pass D has given up a ton of yardage, but only one passing score.
CLEV passing O having it?s probs...but they have faced lots of good D, and been on the road for 2 weeks. Kellen Winslow is out.
WASH pass D ranked 14th. Testaverde did ok against them.
I?m thinking: Breakout time for the Browns? I think I like them as a home dog. Wash doesn?t really scare me. Also, they are off a short week. Both teams have lost 2 straight...loser goes to 1-3.
NE - running is not their strength. They prefer to pass the ball, and this is a tough place to run.
BUF run D #4 in the league - hasn?t allowed a TD yet. Doubtful we see NE running much in this game.
BUF RB Henry struggling to run the ball. Buf?s run blocking is pathetic. Buf?s O-line sucks.
NE rush D is not great...but Buff having big problems.
NE has not faced a good pass D yet (Indy, Ariz). NE has also had a LOT of time off (Thurs game, then Sunday, then bye).
BUF #6 pass D...I don?t think that?s realistic. They played vs a running team (Jax), and a team whose QB got hurt mid-game (Oak). Tougher test by far for them here.
BUF QB Bledsoe 27th ranked QB in NFL. That horrible O-line gives him no time to throw.
NE #9 pass D in the league.
Both teams off a bye. NE going for league record-tying 18th straight win.
I?m thinking: Could be an Over, due to neither team being able to run a whole lot, a low total, and possibly turnovers. Not sure I could lay 5? pts on the road...but not sure I could take Buff either. NE is much better all-around.
OAK RB Wheatley finally had a 100 yd game LW (vs TB)
HOU run D is mediocre.
OAK?s QB change means more deep threats = defence has to play back, should open up the running game.
HOU RB Dom.Davis twisted ankle last week. (Status this wk?)
OAK has #6 run D ... Against very weak running teams though (Pitt, Buf, TB). Looks like a tough day for Hou?s RB?s.
OAK QB Collins solid in relief of Gannon last week. 16/27, 228y, 1TD, 1INT.
HOU run D got killed LW vs KC (w/ few healthy receivers), and have been bad in the red zone this yr. SS Eric Brown likely out.
HOU has only one reliable receiver (Andre Johnson). Other guys doing little. HOU O-line weak, giving up 10 sacks so far.
OAK allowed 309 yds to very mediocre TB passing game LW.
I?m thinking: Oakland and Over (Over is the stronger play, I think). This total seems really low. HOU has no D...Oak has average D. Both can score. HOU will have to pass more than usual if Davis doesn?t play. Not really keen on taking OAK on the road, but HOU looks bad. Should be the most wide-open game OAK has played all year. Both teams should score 20 easy.
IND RB Edgerrin James #5 RB in game. O-line giving him good protection.
JAX allowed 101yds rushing LW (Chris Brown, Tenn). First time in a long time they?ve given up over 100. One of the best run D?s in the league. IND run O vs JAX run D looks like a neutral matchup.
JAX RB Taylor off to a slow start. JAX passes very little, so D?s can key in on Taylor, limiting his production. JAX O-line also not great. Taylor has done well against IND in the recent past.
IND run D ranks in the middle. Held Ahman Green to 74 yds LW, but that game was a passing shootout. I suspect IND run D is still only average at best. For now, call this a neutral matchup too.
JAX QB Leftwich really struggling. JAX pass O pretty ineffective.
IND pass D is the worst in the league. Mega yardage allowed. So either Leftwich has his best day of the year, or the Colts pass D does.
IND QB Manning and his 3 receivers are ripping the league up. Superior passing attack, #1 in league.
JAX pass D ranked #8 in the league, though they have played vs. only average passing attacks. Manning traditionally kills JAX.
I?m thinking: Originally was on JAX, and probably still am. Getting more than 3 pts at home looks like a gift. What is more likely to happen: JAX D falls apart, or IND O struggles for the first time all year? O/U will be decided when one of those two happens. A ton of trends go on JAX / against IND this week, including the 90-point rule.
PIT Staley could have a big game. Expecting lots of running from Pitt with rookie QB?s 1st start @ home.
CIN 31st stopping the run.
CIN RB R. Johnson may have some success - he did ok vs Balt - but Pitt run D also looks pretty good.
CIN has some injuries on the O-line including their center (injured center means passing game suffers).
CIN QB Palmer throwing to Johnson too much, getting picked off, too easy for defences to read.
CIN WR?s also hurt - Warrick (shin bruise, questionable), Shoebel
PIT pass D ranks 5th in the league (bolstered by one game in a hurricane). Not really THAT good, but ok.
CIN pass D held down Balt nicely, but that?s Balt.
I?m thinking: Under or Pitt. Though CIN is a road team going into a bye.
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Game notes:
NYG Dayne held out last week due to "odd" swelling of his calf. Questionable as of Wed.
NYG Barber excelled not having to share the load with Dayne.
GB has some injury probs on run D. Not the best run stopping unit in the league. Neutral matchup.
GB Green limited because they were playing catchup all last week. Shouldn?t be the case here.
NYG sub-standard rush D. Allowed Clev to run a lot on them. Good matchup for Ahman Green.
NYG Warner playing very well...just not throwing passes for scores.
GB pass D lit up last week. Bounceback or exposed? NYG passing considered a good matchup here...I?m not so sure.
GB Favre and Walker are really on a roll. Walker #3 WR in the league.
NYG pass D inconsistent. Not considered good. Should be a good day for GB passing.
I?m thinking: Over? Non-divisional game, bounceback situation for GB. They should win SU, but ATS...ya, probably ATS too.
I could see GB killing clock in the 2H if they have a lead (2H Under). I suspect NYG away from home will be pretty bad most weeks.
PHI Westbook?s lead blocker out for the year - could spell trouble for Phil running game. PHI?s goalline offence expected to suffer.
CHI run D is right in the middle of the pack (16th). Injuries to Urlacher and Boone hurt.
CHI Jones #2 RB in the league, going for 3rd straight 100 yard game. Bears run O #6 in the league overall.
PHI run D also middle of the pack. CHI?s got some O-line injuries/problems.
Both running matchups considered to be "good".
PHI considered to have a "great" matchup throwing this week. CHI multiple injuries in secondary. CHI pass D badly overmatched & tired last week vs Minn.
CHI QB Grossman out for year - Johnathon Quinn now the starter, and he?s not too hot (then again, Grossman was the worst-rated passer in the league, so this can?t be THAT much worse).
CHI QB Quinn was 0/3 for 0 yards LW filling in after Grossman got hurt.
PHI D leads the league in QB sacks. However, PHI D has given up a lot of passing yards this year...just not that many scores.
I?m thinking: Tough game to call. I want to take the Bears, but those passing stats have me scared. If Philly has one weakness it looks like it is run D, and CHI is a team that can take advantage of that (unlike Det, last week). Sounds like Philly will have to pass more. Chi may just give it to Jones all day long to ease Quinn into the lineup. But if CHI gets behind then what? Still think Under maybe? Maybe backdoor Bears cover. PHI on the road for the 2nd week in a row.
WASH RB Portis expected to do well here.
CLEV run D supposedly not good (though I think they are underrated). They got carved up @ NYG last week though.
Being at home may help Clev a bit. This is another team that I think will perform much better @ home than on the road.
CLEV back home after 2 road games.
CLEV RB Lee Suggs MAY play his first game of the year. William Green has been not bad filling in...mixing in Suggs could screw things up now?
WASH has the top-ranked run D in the league thus far - though they?ve only played one team (NYG) with any kind of running attack.
I don?t think WASH run D is as good as advertised. Still, Clev is not a super-running team either.
WASH QB Brunell inconsistent.
CLEV pass D has given up a ton of yardage, but only one passing score.
CLEV passing O having it?s probs...but they have faced lots of good D, and been on the road for 2 weeks. Kellen Winslow is out.
WASH pass D ranked 14th. Testaverde did ok against them.
I?m thinking: Breakout time for the Browns? I think I like them as a home dog. Wash doesn?t really scare me. Also, they are off a short week. Both teams have lost 2 straight...loser goes to 1-3.
NE - running is not their strength. They prefer to pass the ball, and this is a tough place to run.
BUF run D #4 in the league - hasn?t allowed a TD yet. Doubtful we see NE running much in this game.
BUF RB Henry struggling to run the ball. Buf?s run blocking is pathetic. Buf?s O-line sucks.
NE rush D is not great...but Buff having big problems.
NE has not faced a good pass D yet (Indy, Ariz). NE has also had a LOT of time off (Thurs game, then Sunday, then bye).
BUF #6 pass D...I don?t think that?s realistic. They played vs a running team (Jax), and a team whose QB got hurt mid-game (Oak). Tougher test by far for them here.
BUF QB Bledsoe 27th ranked QB in NFL. That horrible O-line gives him no time to throw.
NE #9 pass D in the league.
Both teams off a bye. NE going for league record-tying 18th straight win.
I?m thinking: Could be an Over, due to neither team being able to run a whole lot, a low total, and possibly turnovers. Not sure I could lay 5? pts on the road...but not sure I could take Buff either. NE is much better all-around.
OAK RB Wheatley finally had a 100 yd game LW (vs TB)
HOU run D is mediocre.
OAK?s QB change means more deep threats = defence has to play back, should open up the running game.
HOU RB Dom.Davis twisted ankle last week. (Status this wk?)
OAK has #6 run D ... Against very weak running teams though (Pitt, Buf, TB). Looks like a tough day for Hou?s RB?s.
OAK QB Collins solid in relief of Gannon last week. 16/27, 228y, 1TD, 1INT.
HOU run D got killed LW vs KC (w/ few healthy receivers), and have been bad in the red zone this yr. SS Eric Brown likely out.
HOU has only one reliable receiver (Andre Johnson). Other guys doing little. HOU O-line weak, giving up 10 sacks so far.
OAK allowed 309 yds to very mediocre TB passing game LW.
I?m thinking: Oakland and Over (Over is the stronger play, I think). This total seems really low. HOU has no D...Oak has average D. Both can score. HOU will have to pass more than usual if Davis doesn?t play. Not really keen on taking OAK on the road, but HOU looks bad. Should be the most wide-open game OAK has played all year. Both teams should score 20 easy.
IND RB Edgerrin James #5 RB in game. O-line giving him good protection.
JAX allowed 101yds rushing LW (Chris Brown, Tenn). First time in a long time they?ve given up over 100. One of the best run D?s in the league. IND run O vs JAX run D looks like a neutral matchup.
JAX RB Taylor off to a slow start. JAX passes very little, so D?s can key in on Taylor, limiting his production. JAX O-line also not great. Taylor has done well against IND in the recent past.
IND run D ranks in the middle. Held Ahman Green to 74 yds LW, but that game was a passing shootout. I suspect IND run D is still only average at best. For now, call this a neutral matchup too.
JAX QB Leftwich really struggling. JAX pass O pretty ineffective.
IND pass D is the worst in the league. Mega yardage allowed. So either Leftwich has his best day of the year, or the Colts pass D does.
IND QB Manning and his 3 receivers are ripping the league up. Superior passing attack, #1 in league.
JAX pass D ranked #8 in the league, though they have played vs. only average passing attacks. Manning traditionally kills JAX.
I?m thinking: Originally was on JAX, and probably still am. Getting more than 3 pts at home looks like a gift. What is more likely to happen: JAX D falls apart, or IND O struggles for the first time all year? O/U will be decided when one of those two happens. A ton of trends go on JAX / against IND this week, including the 90-point rule.
PIT Staley could have a big game. Expecting lots of running from Pitt with rookie QB?s 1st start @ home.
CIN 31st stopping the run.
CIN RB R. Johnson may have some success - he did ok vs Balt - but Pitt run D also looks pretty good.
CIN has some injuries on the O-line including their center (injured center means passing game suffers).
CIN QB Palmer throwing to Johnson too much, getting picked off, too easy for defences to read.
CIN WR?s also hurt - Warrick (shin bruise, questionable), Shoebel
PIT pass D ranks 5th in the league (bolstered by one game in a hurricane). Not really THAT good, but ok.
CIN pass D held down Balt nicely, but that?s Balt.
I?m thinking: Under or Pitt. Though CIN is a road team going into a bye.
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