My Week 5 College Plays

[Junkyarddog]

I really did crappy with the plays that I posted in here last week (0-3) so I will try to do two things this week. #1. Post some winners. #2. Remember to post ALL of my plays in this thread when I play them. As always, I post the book that we (myself and my partners) play at:

Navy @ Memphis Over 55 (Circa). These two teams love to score. This is a Thursday Night Game and you know how teams love to light it up on the weeknights.

Penn State -6 1/2 @ Maryland. (Westgate). Still available at a few other books also. People are still remembering Maryland's rout of Syracuse. Now we know that Syracuse is average at best. Maryland is also not the best team in the world coming off a bye week (1-7). Penn State and head coach James Franklin has that "take no prisoners" attitude, especially after the Pitt game. This is their chance to build up brownie points in the polls. A Friday Night game.

California -5 vs Arizona State. We have NOT pulled the trigger on this game yet, but Cal is looking very good so far. Cal is 6-0 as a HF of less than 12 coming off a non-con game. Arizona State was looking great until last week, when their defense collapsed in a 34-31 loss at Colorado. The Sun Devils are 1-8 after a S/U conference loss as a favorite. They are also 0-9 in weekday games. This game is another Friday Night affair.

More later possibly including a couple of "Rodney Dangerfield" teams. You know. The ones that get no respect.

 

[DMD252]

JYD: If you promise to post your YTD Win-Loss record including units; I will promise NOT to buy points. Best of Luck on your selections.

 

[bosbabiesarm]

JYD: If you promise to post your YTD Win-Loss record including units; I will promise NOT to buy points. Best of Luck on your selections.

:s5::mj11::flush::flush::flush:x42:

Not you DMD 👍🏾

 

[bosbabiesarm]

FADE all.

 

[Junkyarddog]

JYD: If you promise to post your YTD Win-Loss record including units; I will promise NOT to buy points. Best of Luck on your selections.

My YTD total as posted in here is 0-3. All plays are for 1 unit, for simplicity sake. So -3.3 Units. We always wager the same amount of money on every game we play. Still no play on Cal. With two solid defenses going against two very "iffy" offenses, we certainly do not want to give a lot of points, and right now, 4 1/2 seems to be the popular number. Cal has scored 98 points in 4 games, and Arizona State 90. Cal has allowed 69 points and Arizona State 65. The total sits at 41 1/2. The lower the total, the tougher it normally is to cover if you are giving more than 3 points.

Adding some games. Baylor +3 vs Iowa State. (Westgate). Baylor is 3-0 against weak opposition. They are also 7-0 vs a conference opponent after playing a non-con opponent. Iowa State's two wins have come against No. Iowa (3 points) and Monroe. They lost to Iowa. They are 5-0 after scorng 35 points, but 1-6 before the TCU game. Getting 3 points at home is too good to resist for Baylor supporters.

N.C. State +7 at Florida State. (CG Tech) NC State's one loss came at West Virginia. They are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games at Florida State and 6-1 ATS overall in their last 7 games against them. Florida State plays totally out of control. They take way too many penalties. They are very lucky not to be 1-3 at this stage of the season. Until Taggart can prove that he can control this wild bunch, Florida State is always too big of a risk to wager on when they are a favorite. NC State catches Florida State thinking about the destruction they will be facing against Clemson in their next game and sneaks off with a cover.

 

[bosbabiesarm]

My YTD total as posted in here is 0-3. All plays are for 1 unit, for simplicity sake. So -3.3 Units. We always wager the same amount of money on every game we play. Still no play on Cal. With two solid defenses going against two very "iffy" offenses, we certainly do not want to give a lot of points, and right now, 4 1/2 seems to be the popular number. Cal has scored 98 points in 4 games, and Arizona State 90. Cal has allowed 69 points and Arizona State 65. The total sits at 41 1/2. The lower the total, the tougher it normally is to cover if you are giving more than 3 points.

I went back and looked at a few of your past post and found 9 pics that I can hold you too. Your record is 3 wins and 6 losses. So add that to your other 3 losers, that makes you 3-9 on the season that I found
But there are more. But I?m learning from a pro. xstop

 

[Junkyarddog]

I went back and looked at a few of your past post and found 9 pics that I can hold you too. Your record is 3 wins and 6 losses. So add that to your other 3 losers, that makes you 3-9 on the season that I found
But there are more. But I?m learning from a pro. xstop

Show me those picks. IF you are wrong, prepare to get your worthless tail handed to you. Punks like you come a dime a dozen. Put up or shut up and for your sake, you had better be right.

 

[bosbabiesarm]

Click on your handle, then hit all threads started or replied too.
After you do that you?ll put your thumb back up your ass and sit back in the corner


I?m sure someone on here can move them over to this post. :lol:
If you don?t wanna go look for yourself.

 

[bosbabiesarm]

And after you?re proven wrong what are you gonna do, I suggest the thumb thing. :0008

 

[53defense]

One thing is for certain..... If you bring something to these pages, you had better come straight. Credibility is paramount to the process of acquiring information.

People are gunna check your record. What you represent as your record better be your record.

Can't piss on a guys shoes and ask him to buy you a beer.

Much more credible people have been questioned on these pages, those who have longevity and reputation, so don't feel you are being singled out.



If you made a mistake....Admit it, consume some feces, and move on. Think you'd get more respect doin that then wasting time making an argument to the contrary.

In any event Good Luck

 

[bosbabiesarm]

53D I pride myself over the years for the time and effort I put into the plays I put out.
I can?t remember anybody coming to the forum and talk to people the way he did. It just had to be dealt with, he had to be called out.
I apologize if I have offended you.:0008

 

[53defense]

53D I pride myself over the years for the time and effort I put into the plays I put out.
I can?t remember anybody coming to the forum and talk to people the way he did. It just had to be dealt with, he had to be called out.
I apologize if I have offended you.:0008

Rest assured BBA, I am not offended....

I understand how important the numbers are and I support your actions.....

Like I said in the post, if you bring something here you better come straight....

Its one of the things that seperate this site from others..... and that's a good thing.

Good Luck

 

[Junkyarddog]

I repeat. Show me this alleged record. If not, be prepared for me to put you in your rightful place. You are a fraud.

 

[Junkyarddog]

Updating: For all of you people in here, Navy-Memphis did go over 55. Winner. We have Penn State -6 1/2 Tonight. Tomorrow we have Baylor +3 vs Iowa State and N.C. State +7 @ Florida State. We are adding the following:

UAB -3 @ Western Kentucky. (CG TEch). UAB has a very good chance of winning the C-USA West title. They are 3-0 S/U and 2-0 ATS so far. Western Kentucky is 1-2, with losses to Certral Arkansas and Lousiville. 3 points seems like a bargain basement deal here.

Indiana @ Michigan State Over 43 (MGM Mirage). Indiana has to score to have any chance in games. While being held to 10 points by Ohio State in their only loss, they have scored over 30 points in their 3 wins against patsies. Michigan State has scored 110 points in their 3 wins against decent opposition. Dantonio will want to take care of business against the softer Big 10 competition with games at Ohio State, at Wisconsin, and home against Penn State on deck. We do not see a scoring fest here, but with such a low total, these teams should be able to cover the over.

We did not pull the trigger on the Cal game. Just too many points. So we ended up with 5 plays, one of which is a winner already. DMD, your serve sir. GL unless you faded us. Why people wish others who faded their picks GL has always been a mystery to me. How two-faced can you get? Do you really want them to win at a cost to you?

 

[ManofWar]

I repeat. Show me this alleged record. If not, be prepared for me to put you in your rightful place. You are a fraud.

UCLA +3 1/2
Utah -4 1/2
Oregon +2 1/2
Va. Tech -2 1/2

Syracuse -2 1/2 at Maryland. MGM. Everyone is all excited about Maryland because they scored 79 points against what amounted to a bad juco team. Syracuse just shut out Liberty, a FBS team, on the road. The ACC is considered to be an overall weak conference. Syracuse is allegedly the #2 team in this conference behind only Clemson. A loss here and the ACC is reduced to Clemson and a bunch of nobodies. Maryland will get a rude awakening on Saturday, especially if they believe that they are as good as their last game indicated.

I see that you are buying into the Maryland hype. I do not give them much of a chance against the #2 team in the ACC.

How much do you lose overall each season, and please do not tell me that you win. This is like so many other alleged 'cappers who think that you can win by playing a large number of games with "Can't miss" odds, then having to scramble around to save face after they lose. It is old, and it is simply not true. You do not have the money. If you did, you would NEVER play this way.

A few games I like.

Purdue -6 1/2 (Westgate) vs Vanderbilt. If Brohm cannot get this team fired up at home after last week's humiliation against Nevada, he deserves what he gets. Vandy showed little offense against an uninterested Georgia team last week.

Syracuse +2 @ Maryland (Wynn). Syracuse is allegedly the #2 team in the ACC. If they cannot defeat a middle of the road Big 10 team, then they do not deserve to play in the CFP. Babers knows this. There will be no look ahead to Clemson next week, because a loss here eliminates them from CFP contention.

Nebraska -4 @ Colorado. (Westgate) Nebraska is allegedly a challenger for the Big 10 West title. They are going against the #6 Pac 12 West team. (6 out of 6) If Nebraska cannot win this game convincingly, what chance do they have when they play Ohio State, Purdue, Iowa, and Wisconsin?

Tennessee -3 vs BYU (MGM Mirage). This is a real "iffy" game for me, but I took Tennessee knowing that their chances of a bowl game are gone with a loss here. They still must go to Florida, Alabama, Kentucky and Missouri, plus host Georgia and Miss. State. Tennessee returns 17 players from last year, but have already lost 3 starters and two back-ups on defense. If Pruitt cannot get to a Bowl game and start putting fans back in the seats at Neyland Stadium this season, his seat may become unbearably hot.

Miami -5 @ UNC. (Westgate) This is a huge test for HC Diaz and the team that is favored to win the ACC Coastal Division. Miami played Florida very tough and basically gave that game away. UNC shocked South Carolina in their opener, marking the return of Mack Brown (now 15-0 ATS in his last 15 season openers) The question is simple. Just how good is this UNC team? How much of this line is hype because of their win and Miami's loss? A loss for Miami here sends them into mediocre land.

(...) indicates name of the sprotsbook that these games were played at.

First of all, you did not state where you got this information. Obviously it is from one very small source. Secondly, this is the most misleading stat that books put out. If I wager 1000 on team A and 9 of you wager 100 on team B, team B will have 90% of what you term the "Public Action" but team A will have more money wagered on it, and that is the ONLY THING THAT COUNTS. Period. End of statement.

Where did you get your lines? Oregon is -2500, NOT 250. 24 point favorites do not go off at -250. If you are going to post lines, they had better be accurate. I will call you out on them if there is a huge discrepancy. Sorry, but there are just so many people who love to B.S. that I find it difficult to find people who know what they are talking about.

You do realize that you post so many picks that you make yourself sound totally unbelievable.

Teasers are sucker plays. If you wager on teasers it shows that you have no faith in your ability to wager on a team without getting additional points.

I believe that Iowa wins this game, but there is no way in hell Iowa is a good team. Their QB is a 3rd round pick at best. He is only 9-9 against conference teams. Also Matt Campbell is a much better HC than Ferentz, who has been at Iowa for decades and accomplished NOTHING in the way of outright Conference Championships. Still, I will give Iowa the nod on sheer talent alone and a very small wagering line number. Iowa does well in September, but could well go 0 for October.

UNC has NOT played a game on the road yet this season. Their combined winning total is 7 points. This against teams that are 1-3 overall. If you make a lot of wager for small amounts which is what you appear to do, then it really does not matter, but if you make a small number of wagers for a substantial amount of money, this game is a pass.

Boise State's record as a home favorite in the past 4+ years is 6-18-1. That is great fade material.

I have NEVER seen Iowa State -4. Certainly not in Las Vegas. Iowa State opened up at -1 1/2. Where did you see Iowa state at -4?

First, buying hooks is for suckers, especially in this situation. Your wager makes no sense at all. Talking Iowa State plus 1/2 point in the first half, but then buying the hook. Anyone with any knowledge knows that the correct and most profitable play in situations like this is taking Iowa State ML both for the half and for the game. Can you win both wagers? Sure, that is whythey call it gambling. Can you turn a profit over a season making wagers like that. NO. Absolutely NO. The extra vig will nail you.

My problem with wagering either way on this game is that Air Force has NOT played a game yet. Sure they defeated Colgate by 41, but that was nothing more than a scrimmage. Air Force is in a huge look ahead situation, visiting Potato land next week for a Friday Night game against Boise State.

Boise State is -31 1/2 against Portland State. They have the Air Force coming up in 6 days, not 7. I would much rather take the points than give them, especially with Boise State's record of 6-18-1 as a HF in the past 4+ seasons.

If anything, the line in Vegas actually went down a 1/2 point ( Fla -8 1/2 to -8) when Wilson was declared out. Kentucky's offense was always questionable at best. With Safety Robinson also gone, Florida should be able to pass for enough points to cover this game. I would feel a lot more comfortable giving 7 though.

Let me start by saying that I would never be so pompous as to tell people what team to wager on. How they spend their money is their business, not mine. I see so many wanna-be touts telling people who to wager on with no write-ups at all, I just laugh. I also see lots of guys post with no records, lines that have been "Fudged" and other things that indicate that the poster is probably a loser. Since 1999 I have won 57 1/2% of my wagers. Perhaps not the best around, but when you wager large amounts of money (always the same amount on each game), stay away from the sucker plays (props, parlays and teasers) and limit the amount of wagers you make per week, you can make a lot of money in this game. So please do not follow me. Fade me if you must. These are games that I find of wagering interest.

UNC @ Wake Forest Total 65 (Westgate). Be very careful here. Wake has scored a lot of points against FBS Group of 5 opponents Utah State and Rice. UNC has not had a combined score of over 53 points in their two games against FBS Power 5 Conference opponents. UNC is 1-0 in conference play. A win here gives them a big leg up in looking for a bowl game. Wake ends it's season with games vs N.C. State, at Va. Tech, at Clemson, Duke, and at Syracuse. This game becomes almost a must for them. Normally that means ball control and defense.

USC -4 (Westgagte) @ BYU. Everyone in the Pac 12, including this alum, was shocked at the way USC came back from a 14-3 deficit and destroyed Stanford 45-20 at home. Just as shocking was BYU's 29-26 victory at Tennessee. There are lots of ways to look at this game. This is USC's first away game of the season, and their first game minus an A.D. Lynn Swan resigned earlier this week. On the other hand, BYU was destroyed by Pac 12 South Champ Utah at home during week 1 in their major rivalry game. BYU has scored a total of 41 points in their first two games. They have allowed 56. USC has scored 76 points in their first 2 games while allowing 43. It seems as if USC -4 is too good to be true. Just remember the old saying. "If things look too good to be true..."

Iowa -1 (Westgate) @ Iowa State. These games always seem to be close. Iowa started strong this season with two home victories against FBS Group of 5 Miami (Ohio) and Rutgers, who should be in the FBS Group of 5. This is their first away game. Iowa State barely got past FCS Northern Iowa 29-26 in their only game so far. If you are stuck and really want to wager on this game, here is a hint. Iowa HC Ferentz is 8-3 in his past 11 games against State. State HC Campbell is 0-3 in his three tries. How bad is this week overall? ESPN Gameday will be in Ames.

TCU -2 (Westgate) @ Purdue. An interesting game between two 8-4 type teams. TCU has a home win against FCS Arkansas Pine Bluff and then took the next week off. Purdue was stunned at Nevada by MWC Nevada 34-31, but rallied last week to defeat SEC East Cellar Dweller Vanderbilt. Many see this as a game between the Purdue offense against the TCU defense, but in reality, TCU returns more offensive starters and Purdue returns more defensive starters. Of course, returning starters mean nothing if they are not good. TCU needs to find a QB to run the offense. Purdue's defense has given up 58 points in their first two games against weak opposition.

Texas Tech -2 (Westgate) at Arizona. Not much to say here except that if you like scoring, this is your game. Tech has scored 83 points in two weeks against very weak opposition at home. This is their first away game. Arizona has scored 108 points in those same two weeks, but has a loss at Hawaii. The difference could be this. Tech has give up only 13 points while Arizona has given up 86.

Enjoy the games.

May I suggest that you guys know what you are talking about before posting. If you read all of my posts, you will see that I do not "make picks" so to speak, to avoid this very thing. Old School seems to understand how to correctly wager and the potential results if you do it correctly over a period of time. The one thing that separates the know-somethings from the know-nothings is an understanding of exactly how things really work at a sports book.

A far as you people in here are concerned, I suggest you read my posts. Had you read them, some of you may have taken the obvious Under in the UNC-Wake Forest game. If you guys are so interested in keeping records, you can try to figure out who I wagered on and keep that record. The truth is that those that do that are your basic wanna-be Macho thinking losers. You guys are a dime a dozen. Male. Probably in your 20's or 30's. You have a fear of losing. Some of you will not post your records. Gentlemen, what you have to understand is that I could care less who you are, what you do, or how much you win or lose. It matters not to me. Do your thing. In the long run, the only thing that counts for me is how much money I have which is a lot more than most of you. I just give my opinions. Do what you want with them. GL gentlemen. A lot of you will need it.

I can see Michigan and the 3 points. You can get 3 1/2 at a few shops in Vegas. I also would jump on Utah -4 against USC on Friday Night. The line has already gone up from the -3 opener. As a rule, I never wager on USC games, take or fade, because I am a USC Grad and I do not want to wager with my heart, as all homers do. But in this case, I made an exception. Clay Helton is so bad that he deserves to get fired, and as soon as possible. There is no excuse for that performance on last Saturday.

Sides only. I do not normally do this, but what the hell...
9/20. Utah -3 @ USC (Circa)
9/21. Northwestern +8 vs Michigan State (Circa)
9/21. Michigan +3 1/2 @ Wisconsin (William Hill Outlets)

That's it for now. ( indicates shops where wagers were placed). All Wagers placed in Las Vegas.

You do know that teasers are for suckers and those who have absolutely no faith in their abilities to pick winners, right. Did anyone else in here ever tell you that teasers give the book a huge edge?

Here are some previous posts, I hope this helps.

 

[bosbabiesarm]

Here are some previous posts, I hope this helps.

MOW thank ya much


SO my man here they are all your bull shit. Stfu finally

I rest my case

 

[bosbabiesarm]

The ones I can 💯make out as picks. Your record is the following. :mj07::lol:

4 wins 13 losses 1 tie

And I was generous with some of the lines you posted

 

[bosbabiesarm]

Only good thing is to get to 57.3% you?re gonna go on a hell of a roll. :scared:shrug::0008

 

[Junkyarddog]

Only good thing is to get to 57.3% you?re gonna go on a hell of a roll. :scared:shrug::0008

I can see where you may be confused. I made a lot of comments but comments do NOT equate to picks. When I make a pick I will let everyone know that it is a pick. I do not need some rank amateur telling me what I picked and what I did not pick. My current record is now 1-3 ATS. What is yours? In case you do not know this, it has become very easy to check records. I have done it for years, and things are much easier today then they were when I was working for various government agencies. I know all about you. You do not wager a lot of money. You think you are good, but in reality you are not. Now you can continue this line of bull s**t or we can have some decent discussions about football. It is your choice, but if you get ballsy and want to challenge me, please go ahead. Let me see what you propose. When you lose (when, not if) you will pay a very stiff price.

Again, your call. I did not join this site to talk about a bunch of B.S. from guys who are basically broke and trying to prove something that they cannot prove. I decide what my picks are, NOT you. If you really want your arse kicked, bring it on. I WILL beat you. Name your game and your price. To be honest, I just as soon have a drink with you and talk football rather than beat you into the ground (figuratively speaking), but it is your call. Been there. Done that. It matters not either way.

 

[bosbabiesarm]

No picks are something you keep record of? Comments or bullshit you spew out of your mouth, everything you write, comments or bullshit I?m done with you. You?re a worthless piece of shit everybody on here knows that I don?t have to explain anything to you.
You were proven wrong you can at least admit it because you?re not a man you?re a little boy you?re a little punk you?re a little bitch that?s what you?ll always be.
Stay out of my threads I will stay out of your threads keep your bullshit records I don?t give a shit you couldn?t find your ass if you stuck both hands down your pants that?s what I know.
Good luck to you in the future