My Yearly Baseball Strategy

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203Hoosier

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I do two things each MLB season:

1- I handicap to find two underdogs each day. I will hit under 50%, but that doesn't matter much to me.
Every play will be 10 units. My goal (obviously) is to end up +units on the season. It's all about finding value in the underdog moneyline for me. I'm looking for games that I consider to be very close to "toss-ups," but I'm getting +money back. Always two a day, and always two underdogs.
I have many offshore books and I always play the best +numbers available at the time. A unit for me is $300, so I'm always risking $3K each game. So, by shopping around for the best prices, I save tens of thousands of dollars each year. It's THAT important.
For this underdog strategy, my motto has always been "Just split, baby!"

2- I will streak two teams all season. The teams I have chosen for this season are the Toronto Blue Jays and the Colorado Rockies. I always find two teams who do NOT play each other this year, so I can have two teams going for the season. The teams that I have selected this year (and all years) are completely random....I just had to make sure they don't face each other this season.
There is ZERO handicapping involved. Each game is 10 units.
This starts on the 2nd day of the season, and ends the last day of the season.
I bet ON the Blue Jays after they win, and AGAINST them after they lose. Same with the Rockies. Play ON after a win, AGAINST after a loss.
The idea is that baseball is a game of streaks. (It is.) My dad has used this system for almost 50 years and it's won far more years than it has lost. I've been doing it for about 20 years and have also found it very profitable.
Again, shopping for the best price is so important, especially when you are playing each game for $3k. Like I said above, it saves tens of thousands of dollars each season.
Why do I do this?
When I was a kid my father told me about the system. We'd be listening to the car radio in Connecticut and the guys giving the updates at :15 and :45 past the hour on NYC stations WCBS 880 and 1010 WINS would always say things like: "The Dodgers, who had won five straight, have now lost 6 of 7".....or "The Red Sox are now on a 9-game winning streak, after dropping 11 of their previous 13."
You get the idea.
The system is MUCH more profitable with all these offshore books and better prices. My dad used to use 4-5 locals, and they knew who he was taking before he even called in. They were wise to his "streaking method" and adjusted the prices accordingly. Offshores haven't done that to either of us.

I'll make it a point to post my daily underdog selections each day here. I'll update the record and units won/lost as often as I can. I'll try daily.
As for streaking Toronto and Colorado, I'll try to update my record and units won/lost every few days. Even though I don't really need to post picks, because one look at the "streak" column in the standings will tell you what I'm doing that day, I will try to do it anyway. I might not have time to put the prices in each day, but you can be sure that I'll keep a detailed and accurate log.

So, I'll have 40 units of action going on many days. Again, IF you are going to tail, make sure you have great books like 5dimes, Heritage, and any other book that offers dime-lines or overnight nickel-lines for MLB. The concept of line-shopping is paramount!
Finally, I won't have write-ups or reasons for the two underdog plays. Baseball is a daily grind and I simply don't have the time.

Good luck this season!
 

jordan23

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So you play the on/off every single day? Meaning you will bet every game Toronto and Colorado are involved in for the entire season after the 1st game?

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Old School

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may the dogs and the streak be in your dugout :00hour

Wally Moon...don't why...just popped in my head...
 

gjn23

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If they both alternate wins/losses just the first week of the season, wouldn't you be down almost 30k right off the bat at 3k per bet?
 

203Hoosier

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In baseball, you hardly ever see a team win 1, lose 1, win 1, lose 1, etc.
It's a game of streaks. Winning and losing.
 

The Mover

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Hoosier I wish you luck on your system plays. With the 2 team system Tor/ Col do you flat bet the games ? gl
 

sds222

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I do two things each MLB season:

1- I handicap to find two underdogs each day. I will hit under 50%, but that doesn't matter much to me.

I bet ON the Blue Jays after they win, and AGAINST them after they lose. Same with the Rockies. Play ON after a win, AGAINST after a loss.

I like the idea but there is no guarantee to be playing an underdog every bet is there?
Say Toronto wins a series and then plays another scrub team with worse pitching matchup, they could be fav's no?
 

sds222

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Never mind, i see you have two different systems effectively, the streak plays and two dogs, good luck.
 

LordofBalls

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ever use a variation on the streak system... ?

ever use a variation on the streak system... ?

I remember a bookie in Albuquerque told me this yrs ago....

WAIT until a team has either Won OR Lost 3 gms in a row...
THEN bet on them to continue the streak.


Did you or your father ever try variations like this..?
Ever keep stats on the system for a yr?

IF/When there will be time when 1 of your tms is a BIG favorite that day, do you still play the full 3k bet? or scale it bk (like "risk" 3k instead?)


appreciate your efforts to post, and discuss


Best o'Luck today and this season!!


LoLB
 

LineMovin

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It does sound like Russian Roulette with your bankroll, but I?m curious to see how it pans out.

Good luck man!


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JOHNNYWAD119

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I was thinking the same thing. If a team is -250 do you still play the same amount?

I remember a bookie in Albuquerque told me this yrs ago....

WAIT until a team has either Won OR Lost 3 gms in a row...
THEN bet on them to continue the streak.


Did you or your father ever try variations like this..?
Ever keep stats on the system for a yr?

IF/When there will be time when 1 of your tms is a BIG favorite that day, do you still play the full 3k bet? or scale it bk (like "risk" 3k instead?)


appreciate your efforts to post, and discuss


Best o'Luck today and this season!!


LoLB
 

elmer fudd

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I remember a bookie in Albuquerque told me this yrs ago....

WAIT until a team has either Won OR Lost 3 gms in a row...
THEN bet on them to continue the streak.


Did you or your father ever try variations like this..?
Ever keep stats on the system for a yr?

IF/When there will be time when 1 of your tms is a BIG favorite that day, do you still play the full 3k bet? or scale it bk (like "risk" 3k instead?)


appreciate your efforts to post, and discuss


Best o'Luck today and this season!!


LoLB

this particular adjustment has worked well for me, when i think of using it:mj07:
 

203Hoosier

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Yes, I have heard of this variation as well.....wait until a team is on a 3-game streak, either way, and then keep streaking that team. This is less risky, and it is solid. But you don't get in on "the ground floor."

SixFive...apparently you've never been in the college basketball forum. I let my plays do the talking. And I keep accurate records. I share with the forum. I'm up over 270 units this season at $300 per unit. That's $81,000 in profit over the last three months. And, yes, I do report that on my taxes each year. (Anybody who doesn't is asking for problems)
If you don't like it, fade me. That's fine.
If you don't believe me, that's fine, too. Why would I put out a system that I knew was going to lose other people money? This is not roulette where systems don't work. This is proven that teams play this way each and every baseball season. This is the only sports that I know of that works this way. College hoops and college football? I handicap; and I work hard at doing that.

If the play is a favorite, I play it to win $3k. If the play is a dog, I play it to risk $3k. Those are the figures that I am currently comfortable enough playing.

Yes, there have been two seasons where the streak system basically broke even with the teams I randomly chose.
I learned a long time ago that you cannot predict which teams will be streaky that year, and which will not. (If I had a crystal ball to predict streaky teams I would own my own island!) It's just a random selection of two teams for me.
Look at the Dodgers last year. My goodness. Whoever streaked the Dodgers last year for big money would be flush!

The "streak" system has proved to be a consistent winner almost every year for at least the last five decades. It's the nature of the sport. The best team loses roughly a third of its games each year. The worst team wins roughly a third of its games every year. And they don't arrive at their final 162-game record by winning 1, losing 2, winning 2, losing 1, winning 1, losing 1, etc. They arrive at their final record through streaks of good/bad hitting and good/bad pitching.

Yes, always the same amount each day on each game. Never deviate or lose discipline. The two keys for my gambling for me are discipline (money management) and price shopping.

Since I don't live in Nevada, the multitude of offshore books with the different prices is very important. Shop around for the best prices. It can turn an average year into a solid year. Why lay -130 at Bovada when you can lay -118 at 5dimes? Why take a team at +150 at Bookmaker, when you can get that team at +160 at Heritage? Shop, shop, and then shop some more. I spread my money out, like I did in college basketball and like I do in college football.

Sit on the sidelines and watch. Tail me. Or fade me. I don't care. I just try to help others on the forum (for free) beat their books.
 
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Handi Capper

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The "streak" system has proved to be a consistent winner almost every year for at least the last five decades. It's the nature of the sport. The best team loses roughly a third of its games each year. The worst team wins roughly a third of its games every year. And they don't arrive at their final 162-game record by winning 1, losing 2, winning 2, losing 1, winning 1, losing 1, etc. They arrive at their final record through streaks of good/bad hitting and good/bad pitching..

then why do only 2 random :0corn

let's do all of them :00hour
 

STEEL CITY SELECTIONS

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you got me interested in the streak system.....

so i did quick research for a random team.....i went to stat fox....they have results last 20 yrs....

i used arizona from 2016. they finished the year....69-93....

based on how i understand you play the system.....


april.....won loss rec. was 9-16....one streak of 5wins. in that month.


may......18-10.....streaks of 4loss....5win....5loss...4loss.....good month.

june.....14-12......streaks of 5win.....4loss

july....12-12.....streaks of 5loss....4loss.


august.....10-17.....streak of 4win


september....14-13.....streaks of 6loss and 4win


so overall win/loss rec. for the year was 77-80


there was 28 instances of 1-win and 13 instances of 2 wins or more in a row.

there was 16 instances of 1 loss and 26 instances of 2 or more losses in a row.


i apologize didn't have time to fig. money won lost wich obv. is the most important thing in baseball.....thats allot work....but I'm pretty certain money results would be a loss for the year....based on the heavy juice lost betting against this bad ariz. team....when they won as a big dog......the majority of your bets would've been betting against them....


it seems to me, that anyone the follows this better have a big bankroll to cover the win/loss/win/loss stretches....because they will happen a lot.....

I'm gonna follow your systems and see how it works out...im not bashing you in anyway....hope you kick ass and make tons of cash this year...
 
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