Nascar Handicapping Article:

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being the open minded person that i am, i'd like to lok into checking out capping motor racing games....

jsut getting my feet wet....as i stumbled across a racing database..and i'd like to see if i can cap games....

anybody have any advice....? and which books offer racing lines....?

thanks in advance for your help.

 

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here's the article:

The Prophet's Guide to NASCAR Handicapping
Part Two: The Basics of the Sport-The Drivers

I?m going to keep this introduction to NASCAR very simple. Not that Winston Cup racing is a simple sport?in fact, it is deceptively complex. For our purposes, however, there are two fundamental factors that you need to know for basic handicapping success: the drivers and the tracks they race on. I?m going to break down ?Part II? of this series into a section on the tracks. ?Part II a? will cover the tracks of NASCAR, which is the other major component of handicapping the races.

Before we get to our quick and dirty NASCAR primer, I do want to recommend a book for anyone who wants to quickly get up to speed on the sport and become a knowledgeable fan. ?NASCAR for Dummies?, from the expansive series of ?Dummies? books is written by racing legend Mark Martin and is a great introduction to stock car racing as well as a valuable reference tool for more experienced fans. I?m not sure how much Mark actually wrote himself and how much was ?ghostwritten? (though he doesn?t list a co-author), but it sure sounds like the man himself is talking to you. It?s an excellent overview of the history, rules and strategies of the sport. You can even order it right here at the Prophet Sports website, so you won?t even have to leave the house to get it. I?ll donate any cash I make from the online sale of these books to the Best Friends Animal Shelter in southern Utah, so you?ll be helping a good cause.

THE DRIVERS:

At first glance, handicapping NASCAR racing can seem somewhat overwhelming. For an average race, 50 or so drivers will attempt to qualify for one of 43 starting positions. Picking a winner appears to be as hard as finding the proverbial needle in a haystack.

This is compounded by the current state of Winston Cup racing, where no one driver has emerged as dominant this year like Dale Jarrett last year and Jeff Gordon in previous seasons. If you?ve been paying any attention at all to NASCAR this year, you?ll know that an unprecedented number of different drivers have won races. In fact, 12 different drivers won the first 14 races. This may give the illusion of parity in NASCAR racing and among the top drivers they are pretty evenly matched. The operative phrase here is ?among the top drivers?, however, since there is a wide gulf between the elites and the also-rans in NASCAR Winston Cup racing.

By taking a look at some past performance numbers we can see a pattern of dominance of a relatively small number of drivers. When I first wrote this article, in the summer of 2000, I went back and looked at the winners of each Winston Cup race starting with this year, and going back to 1996. I threw out winners that were no longer active in the sport (there was actually only two victories by non-active drivers, both by the retired Ernie Irvan) and came up with some pretty interesting results. As I noted in the previous installment, the 2001 season has been a pretty tumultuous one in NASCAR racing. It has seen the tragic death of Dale Earnhardt, along with a number of first time victors. In any case, the fundamental premise is still the same--that the overwhelming number of races are won by a relatively small number of drivers. Anyway, this is a list of the active drivers that have won NASCAR Winston Cup races since 1996:

Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kevin Harvick, Michael Waltrip, Elliot Sadler, Jeremy Mayfield, Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, Rusty Wallace, Jeff Burton, Ward Burton, Bobby Labonte, Dale Jarrett, Joe Nemechek, Terry Labonte, John Andretti, Ricky Rudd, Bobby Hamilton, Geoff Bodine, Steve Park and Sterling Marlin

With 35 races per year counting in the official points standings prior to 2001(there are two more this year), that means at the end of the current season there will have been approximately 177 NASCAR Winston Cup races. So some simple math tells us that an average of 8.04 races have been won by each of these drivers (assuming there are no more first time winners). However, even among these top drivers there is a large disparity in performance. Of these 22 drivers, there have been seven who have won only once since 1996 (Kenseth, Ward Burton, Nemechek, Bodine, Harvick, Waltrip and Sadler) and seven others who have won less than five races in that timeframe (Park, Dale Jr., Andretti, Mayfield, Rudd, Hamilton, Marlin). All told, this ?second tier? of elite drivers have won a total of 22 races. Assuming that the rest of the 2001 season holds close to form, this means that since 1996 approximately 155 Winston Cup races have been won by 9 different drivers. In terms of percentages, 15 drivers have won approximately 97% of the Winston Cup races held since 1996. 9 dominant drivers, meanwhile, have won approximately 88% of Winston Cup races held in that timeframe. So lets list our nine dominant drivers, and then comment on them:

Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt, Sr., Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, Rusty Wallace, Jeff Burton, Bobby Labonte, Dale Jarrett, Terry Labonte

Unfortunately, one of these nine dominant drivers is the late Dale Earnhardt, Sr. who's tragic death sent shock waves through the sport. His Richard Childress Racing team races on, however, with the car driven by rookie Kevin Harvick. Harvick is clearly a future superstar, but he's not up to the elite status yet. That leaves us with eight dominant drivers, and these drivers are a good place to begin the handicapping for any race. Of this bunch, Rusty Wallace is really a serious threat now only on short tracks, and Terry Labonte isn?t a contender week in and week out (though he is very good in certain situations). Mark Martin has also struggled somewhat, and though he's finishing up front more often of late he's not a guy that I consider a threat on every track.

To this list of dominant drivers I?d add the two sophomore ?young guns? who will very quickly become part of this group and are a threat to win in just about any situation already:

Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Matt Kenseth?A couple of talented upstarts who should be among the sport?s elite within the next year or so. Kenseth has fallen off somewhat in 2001, though Earnhardt has performed well in the face of tragedy. Both are already a threat to win on just about any track, as they share an impressive resume in NASCAR?s Busch Grand National Series.

And a few other drivers who in certain circumstances can be a threat:

Sterling Marlin?Perhaps the biggest threat to win of any Dodge driver (Dodge returned to the NASCAR wars in 2001), he's a crafty veteran who'll not surprise anyone by picking up a win or two as the season progresses.

Ricky Rudd?Dale Jarrett?s teammate at Robert Yates racing, he?s a competent driver with one of the best teams in the sport around him. Hasn't won a race since 1998, and it has become a serious "monkey" on his back. Is competitive just about every week, and should break through for a victory before long.

Ward Burton?Older brother of Jeff Burton, he?s only won two career races. He?s a quality driver, however, who is frequently in the front of the pack at the finish. Appears to lack his younger sibling?s ?killer instinct? but is capable of great performances like earlier this season at Darlington.

Mike Skinner?Has yet to win at the Winston Cup level, though he?s a talented and experienced driver with considerable success in the lower NASCAR divisions (Craftsman Truck and Busch Grand National).

John Andretti?As if his ?synonymous with racing? last name wasn?t enough pressure (he?s the nephew of Mario Andretti, and the godson of Indy legend A.J. Foyt) Andretti drives the #43 STP Pontiac for Petty Enterprises. To draw an analogy to team sports, this is like playing for the Yankees wearing Mickey Mantle?s #7 or the Chicago Bulls wearing #23. (Here?s the only piece of NASCAR lore I?ll impart upon you?the #43 car was previously driven by Richard Petty, affectionately known as ?The King? and objectively known as winner of 200 career Winston Cup races, a record that may never be broken). A decent driver, but has a hard time closing out races. Call it a hunch, but his first win will probably come on one of NASCAR's road courses.

Jeremy Mayfield?In my opinion, the biggest enigma of NASCAR racing. He?s won two career cup races and has all of the tools as a driver, as well as the necessary team around him, to be among the sport?s elite. For some reason it hasn?t happened. I think I had a position on Mayfield in just about every race last year, because he?d always look great in qualifying and practice and not win the race. He was competitive in most of the races, but like Andretti, just couldn?t close them out. Lists ?playing with his two cats? as one of his hobbies on the official NASCAR website. Has won once this year, and probably would have won the K-Mart 400 at Michigan had the rain not stopped the race for over an hour. Can be a threat in the right circumstances, but something seems to go wrong for Jeremy frequently with the race on the line.

 

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The Rest:

I don?t want to sound disrespectful of the veteran drivers like Bill Elliot, and the career also-rans like Dave Marcis but for the beginning NASCAR handicapper I have but one suggestion: forget about them. Once you get some NASCAR handicapping experience under your belt, you might be able to find some good value on a young driver ready to break through with his first Winston Cup win (like we did twice with Dale Jr. earlier this season), or a cagey veteran who?s ready for one last strong run. These drivers in these situations are few and far between, however. Keep in mind that sponsorship is a large part of Winston Cup racing and some drivers, like Michael Waltrip (the brother of legitimate NASCAR legend Darrell Waltrip) are valued as much, if not more, for their ability to promote sponsors off the track as they are for their ability to drive a car on the track. Other guys, like the aforementioned Mr. Marcis, keep hanging around because being a race car driver beats having a real job.

Next time, we?ll talk about the various tracks on which Winston Cup races are contested.

Read Part 2A of this series: The Basics of the Sport--The Tracks

 

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fawk, found the other parts to the series:

The Prophet's Guide to NASCAR Handicapping
Part One: An Overview of NASCAR Wagering

Many handicappers have observed and profited from the value that can be found in ?niche? sports like golf, hockey and soccer. The theory behind this concept is sound: oddsmakers are much more interested in coming up with solid lines for the most popular and heavily bet sports like football and basketball than they are for less popular sports on which they take relatively little action. Thus, in theory all the handicapper has to do is become more of an authority on these ?niche? sports than the oddsmaker and he?s got a substantial edge. I say ?in theory?, however, because there is a fundamental problem with betting on relatively obscure sports like the CFL, Arena Football or soccer. It is much more difficult for the handicapper to find relevant information on which to conduct his analysis and make his wagering selections. In other words, for the average American sports handicapper it is just as difficult to get good information on CFL football as it is for the bookmaker. The potential upside of mastering a ?niche? sport is huge, however. Over the past few years I?ve had access to good information on the CFL and Arena Football and the advantageous situations that have presented themselves practically defy belief. Frequently, lines on these sports are not accurately adjusted after key injuries, changes in personnel, or situational considerations such as matchup advantages. And we?re not talking about beating line moves by a few minutes?there have been cases where lines have gone unadjusted for days prior to the start of an event.

It is exactly this sort of information edge over the oddsmaker that makes wagering on NASCAR auto racing so attractive. The majority of books in Nevada and offshore take action on NASCAR events, but it is still not a major sports in terms of money handled and doesn?t command the attention of the bookmaker the way that football or basketball does. Furthermore, a lot of the people betting on NASCAR are fans that just want to back their favorite driver with a few bucks to give the races a little more rooting interest. That is also to the advantage of the handicapper, since NASCAR odds frequently look more like a popularity contest than wagering propositions. Combine the relative unfamiliarity with the sport as a wagering concept demonstrated by most bookies with the impact of ?popular? drivers on the betting mix and it is clear that there is value to be had betting on stock cars.

And that?s where the fun begins for the NASCAR handicapper, because this ?niche? sport to most bookmakers is, in reality, one of the most popular sports in America. NASCAR constantly draws bigger crowds and TV ratings than team sports, and its merchandise sales are second only to the NFL in terms of volume. If you live in the southeast, this is no secret: I?d imagine that in most southern markets you?ll see more NASCAR t-shirts, caps and bumper stickers than those of all other sports combined. As we?ll discuss later, stock car racing is a deceptively simple sport. To the novice, it might appear like a chaotic mix of fast cars running around in circles. In reality, there is a dizzying array of factors that result in success including such serious intellectual pursuits as aerodynamics, mechanical engineering, and chemistry related to the fuel mixture. The beauty of all of this complexity is that it has resulted in the sort of passionate fans that engage in statistical and theoretical analysis that makes Bill James look like a baseball dilettante. In other words, there?s a ton of statistical data out there for the NASCAR handicapper to work with if you know where to look. And that, among other things, is what I?m going to teach you.

This is the first of a five part series that will teach you how to handicap NASCAR profitably. The goal is not to convince you that you should be a fan of the sport, though it is maddeningly addictive once you begin to follow it. We?ll boil down the sport to its essence?what you need to know to make intelligent wagering choices, talk about handicapping theory and the importance of sound money management. This installment will serve as an introduction to why NASCAR is a good wagering opportunity, and what we?ll expound upon in future articles. If you don?t want to do the work yourself, feel free to take advantage of my knowledge and expertise. We?ll be offering analysis and selections for every race in the 2000 NASCAR Winston Cup season free right here on the Prophet Sports website.

There are three very compelling reasons to wager on NASCAR:

1) ?Inside information? is public domain: I?m sure all of you have heard boiler room touts go on and on about how they?ve got ?scouts on the practice field? or about information related to a team?s preparation that will ?determine the outcome of this event?. More often than not, it?s just hot air but the concept that preparation for an event can be valuable to handicapping its outcome is definitely valid. NASCAR is no different, and the quality of a race team?s practice and preparation for the event frequently foretells the outcome. Unlike most sports, where practices are difficult to get information on at best and shrouded in secrecy at worst, NASCAR makes it easy for us. Official practice times and results of each practice session are released by NASCAR itself. You can even follow practices live on the NASCAR website, and some practices and qualifying sessions are even televised, making it possible for the NASCAR handicapper to supplement the raw data with observation and intuition.

In addition to the ready availability of practice data, there is also a wealth of historical data waiting for a handicapper to take advantage of it. We?ll get more into the specifics of this when we begin our discussion of NASCAR handicapping concepts, but just imagine if the NFL office released breakdowns of team ATS performance for all sorts of situations?which teams win on turf, on grass, as favorites, as underdogs, etc. That will never happen, of course, but NASCAR and the media covering the sport does just that.

2) Despite this abundance of information, bookmakers are slow or negligent in moving lines: Most books post their NASCAR odds by midweek, well before qualifying for that event. You would expect these odds to change drastically after qualifying for the event (where start positions are determined) but that isn?t the case. Many books only update odds after the final practice before the race (?Happy Hour? in NASCAR parlance). Some don?t seem to do it at all. For example, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. was a 40/1 choice to win the Pontiac Excitement 400 at Richmond earlier this season. Even after impressive performances in practice all week, his odds didn?t change and he ended up winning the race. Despite this impressive performance, he was made a 25/1 choice at the next race, ?The Winston? at Charlotte. Dale Jr. took the pole position for this race, turning in one of the fastest times ever at the track in the process. The unusual format of this race was also made to order for his aggressive driving style. Charlotte Motor Speedway owner Humpy Wheeler (who has predicted about 75% of the races? winners correctly) said he was his choice to win. Despite all of this evidence that Dale Jr. was significantly undervalued, he was still priced at 25/1 at many books on race day, and 20/1 virtually everywhere. He ended up winning this race as well for another big payday for his backers, myself included. To make this into a football analogy, imagine if you were given the opportunity to wager on the St. Louis Rams to win the Superbowl?at the same price you could have received before the season began?during the playoffs. Clearly, this would be a great value and this precise situation frequently appears in NASCAR wagering.

Other events also transpire between the times the odds are posted and the start of the race that can impact handicapping. Injuries occur, cars get wrecked, and other problems occur that make it less likely for certain drivers to win the race. These are all extensively documented and reported by NASCAR, but you?ll seldom see odds adjusted as a result.

3) Payoffs for winning bets can be huge, and you have multiple chances to win: Finally, one of the most appealing things about betting on NASCAR is that when you win its often a big score. As I noted above, I?ve cashed tickets at prices as high as 40/1 and 25/1 on several occasions already this year. These are not long shot ?flukes? lucking out and winning a race, but top drivers like Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Ward Burton who are simply undervalued by the linesmaker in a particular race. Also, since you?ll typically have a position on a number of drivers you have multiple chances to win in the same event. Nothing feels better than to have four or five cars contending late in the race, and to have a wagering position on all of them.

 

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This does bring up perhaps the only downside in NASCAR wagering?it is brutally volatile. The parity that NASCAR is experiencing this year?with 12 different drivers winning the 14 races held as this article is written?serves to exacerbate this. Making things even crazier has been the fact that four of those wins were posted by drivers who had never won a Winston Cup race. It?s not uncommon to lose ten units one weekend, win 25 the next, lose ten the next and follow that with a 15 unit win. Wagering on team sports, you?ll seldom lose or win all of your plays on a particular day?s card. In NASCAR wagering it?s a certainty?it?s either feast or famine. In over ten years as a full time sports handicapper, I?ve never seen any sport that offers the same peaks and valleys as NASCAR wagering. As a result, money management is crucial in NASCAR betting and we?ll deal with that in detail in a subsequent article.

Next time we?ll get into the sport itself and offer an overview of what you need to know about NASCAR to wager on it. Until then, make sure to visit the Prophet Sports website (www.netprophetsports.com) for free winning information on every NASCAR Winston Cup race!

 

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The Prophet's Guide to NASCAR Handicapping
Part 2A: The Basics of the Sport-The Tracks

In our previous installment, we discussed the dominance of a select group of NASCAR drivers. In retrospect, it might have underemphasized the importance of the entire racing team to the success of the endeavor. On the other hand, the best drivers have the best team members behind them getting the car set up and running well and manning the pit crew on race day. The other important component of the handicapping equation are the individual tracks the races are held on.

A common fallacy, and one which I was guilty of when I started handicapping and following NASCAR racing, is that the racetracks are interchangeable ovals of uniform size and shape. Nothing could be further from the truth. Each NASCAR Winston Cup track is unique in shape, size, banking, surface, etc. More importantly, drivers who dominate on certain tracks struggle on others and vice versa. We?ll get more into the breakdown of driver performances on individual tracks in a later installment of this series, but for now it is important to understand the differences and similarities between NASCAR tracks.

In the previous installment, I recommended Mark Martin?s book ?NASCAR for Dummies? as a good overview of the sport and this is particularly true concerning the individual racetracks. An entire chapter is devoted to the tracks, with diagrams and racing characteristics given for each. I?ve got another somewhat unorthodox resources for understanding the layout of individual tracks that I?ll discuss at the end of this article.

At its most simplistic, there are four types of racetracks on which NASCAR Winston Cup events are held: Superspeedways, Short Tracks, Road Courses, and Other. Each track has its unique characteristics, but we?ll begin the analysis using these divisions:

Superspeedways: Technically, there are only two superspeedways on the NASCAR Winston Cup circuit?the Talledega Superspeedway and the Daytona International Speedway. Superspeedways are characterized by their size?over 2.5 miles?and the speeds the drivers reach on them, which can exceed 200 MPH (more about that in a moment). Aerodynamics and car setup are crucial to success on these tracks, as well as driver experience. In particular, drivers need to understand the importance of drafting (using cars ahead to reduce wind resistance) to enjoy regular success. The late Dale Earnhardt, Sr. was the master of superspeedway racing?it was frequently said that he could ?see the air?.

The two speedways mentioned above are unique for another reason: drivers can go so fast on them that in the interest of safety, NASCAR rules slow them down. The two superspeedways are sometimes referred to as ?restrictor plate? tracks because NASCAR rules mandate the use of a restrictor plate on the carburetor to reduce horsepower and slow down the cars. Some drivers question the safety benefits of this?since they can?t run wide open, driver a restrictor plate car has been compared to driving a riding lawnmower (albeit at over 190 MPH) and lacking the acceleration and ?pickup? needed to avoid accidents and pass easily. Furthermore, since the cars are all roughly equal in horsepower, it results in large packs of cars racing at high speeds in close quarters. Regardless of the actual safety benefit of restrictor plates, they are a fact of life in stock car racing and one the handicapper needs to have a grasp of.

It?s worth noting that there are number of tracks that aren?t ?technically? superspeedways, but exhibit similar characteristics. The speedways at Texas and Atlanta are probably the best examples?big racetracks with lots of speed (and NO restrictor plate requirements).

Short Tracks: Short tracks are the diametrical opposite of superspeedways, and many feel the most exciting races of the year are held on them. They are less than a mile in length, and aerodynamics are far less important (since every car is bound to be banged up before the race is over). The three short tracks on the circuit are Richmond, Bristol and Martinsville. There are a lot of accidents and cautions on short tracks, but not many serious injuries due to the lower speeds and the safe design of the cars. The important thing to remember about short tracks is this: While Rusty Wallace is seldom a factor on most tracks, he is still considered the short track master and must be considered as a threat.

Road Courses: Most drivers hate road courses, because they?re not used to them. Unlike the relatively simple configurations of most tracks they are (as the name implies) more like winding country roads with hairpin turns, back and forth curves, few straightaways, and little or no banking. With only two Winston Cup races a year contested on road courses, they?re definitely an acquired skill for the drivers. Mark Martin attributes his success on road courses to driving like a maniac as a teenager on the winding country roads of Arkansas. The two Winston Cup road courses are at Sears Point, California and Watkins Glen, NY.

Other tracks: The bulk of the Winston Cup schedule is contested on tracks that don?t fit into any of the definitions above. Each of the ?other? tracks is different and must be dealt with individually. Some are more like Superspeedways than anything else (Atlanta, Texas), some are like superspeedways with weird configurations (the egg-shaped Darlington raceway), some have weird surfaces or banking (the concrete surface of Dover) and some are just weird (the triangular shaped Pocono raceway). Some drivers are better on certain tracks than others due to driving style, experience or other factors.

Another good resource: The best way to appreciate the difference between each of the Winston Cup tracks is to actually drive them yourself. While this really isn?t feasible, modern technology has provided a nice alternative. I?ve found no better way to demonstrate the differences between the tracks, and to learn their individual characteristics than the NASCAR 2001 video game. I have it for the Playstation, though if I?m not mistaken it?s available for other videogame platforms as well as the PC. While it doesn?t do much at replicating the characteristics of the individual drivers (they all pretty much drive the same in the videogame) the tracks are recreated in amazing detail.

Next time we?ll start to discuss the important concepts in handicapping NASCAR for fun and, more importantly, profit.

Part 3--The Basics of NASCAR wagering--Coming Soon

 

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The Prophet's Guide to NASCAR Handicapping
Part 3: The Nuts and Bolts of Betting a Race

In the previous installments in this series we?ve discussed why NASCAR wagering in an attractive proposition, and learned some of the basics about the sport. Now we?re going to move along to the basics of betting on a race. This installment will be followed with some more in-depth analysis of NASCAR handicapping techniques.

If you?ve ever wagered on golf, then the format of NASCAR odds will be very familiar to you. Though the two sports might not have anything else in common, the wagers offered by each is nearly identical. The most common NASCAR wager is a futures bet on which driver will win the race. The lineup of drivers and odds may seem intimidating and overwhelming at first, but keep in mind what we?ve learned in the previous installments?a small number of drivers have won virtually every race contested during the past decade. Occasionally, it is possible to identify a driver who is ready to ?break through? and win a race but more often than not betting will be concentrated on the ?name? drivers.



Let?s look at a portion of the betting odds from a NASCAR race, in this case the July 7th, 2000 race at Loudon, New Hampshire. The top half of the betting board for that race looked like this:



Jeff Burton 9/2
Dale Jarrett 5/1
Mark Martin 6/1
Bobby Labonte 8/1
Tony Stewart 8/1
Jeff Gordon 10/1
Jeremy Mayfield 20/1

And now, we?ll look at the lower half of the board:

Steve Park 50/1
Chad Little 60/1
Geoffrey Bodine 60/1
Field 25/1


Obviously, the better drivers come at lower odds but don?t automatically dismiss the drivers at the higher price ranges. I was able to cash a couple of 25/1 tickets on Dale Earnhardt, Jr. last year, and a recent race at Watkins Glen was won by a first time Winston Cup victor, Steve Park (who was 50/1 in that race as well). One wager that you can categorically dismiss (with a few exceptions, typically the road course races) is the ?field? wager. To the best of my knowledge, a ?field? driver has never won a NASCAR Winston Cup event.


The basic premise of NASCAR future wagering is to first decide how much you want to risk for a particular race. For the sake of simplicity, we?ll assume that 8 units will be at risk for this race. Next, you should come up with a mix of drivers that affords the best opportunity for a profit. As an example, here is the driver mix I used for this race:

4 units on Jeff Burton @ 9/2 (profit if he wins-14 units)
2 units on Jeff Gordon @ 10/1 (profit if he wins-14 units)
2 units on Tony Stewart @ 8/1 (profit if he wins-10 units)

Don?t forget to subtract the units bet on other drivers from each potential win total. Obviously, the fewer drivers you spread your wagers among means that you?ll win more if your mix produces a winner. At the same time, however, you assume the inherent risks of putting ?all of your eggs into one basket?. This is one of those things, like the amount to risk on each race, that you will pick up as you gain experience. A lot also depends on your personal wagering technique. Some successful handicappers like to wager more units on fewer drivers, which results in less frequent wins but larger profits. Other bettors like to try and cover most every realistic scenario for a race, betting on more drivers and realizing a smaller profit should they win. Sometimes the dynamics of the race will lend itself to one approach more than another?on a track where one or two drivers have been historically dominant you?ll play it one way, on a wide open course that?s had many different winners you?ll play it another way.

Occasionally, you may find yourself in a situation where you?ll want to bet on a driver merely as a hedge, realizing a zero profit or even a small loss if he wins. Ideally, you won?t want to do this very often but on some tracks and in some situations it may be a necessity. Sometimes a driver won?t be among your choices to win a race, but may have such a record of success at a given track that leaving him out of your mix entirely may be unwise. This is probably a good situation for a hedge position on him. Just make sure that you?re not taking hedge positions too often, and that they?re not a substitute for making tough handicapping decisions. During the course of a NASCAR campaign, there will be situations where the winning driver is the last guy you cut from your wagering mix. This is inevitable, and is something that you?ll just have to deal with. More often than not, you?ll benefit from keeping your driver mix down to as small a number as possible.


Matchup Wagers:


Similar to head to head golf matchups, NASCAR matchup wagers allow the bettor to pick which driver in a pairing will post the best finish in a particular race. For example, the race at New Hampshire offered these pairings among the matchup wagers:

Mark Martin ?115
Rusty Wallace ?105


John Andretti +105
Terry Labonte ?125


To the neophyte, there may seem to be little more than dumb luck involved in picking matchup winners but this is definitely not the case. Not only do some drivers have a better chance to win a particular race than others, but they also have better chances to finish ahead of their counterpart in certain situations. The method in which points are awarded for the overall season championship places a premium on consistently finishing at the front of the pack, so even if a driver isn?t in a position to win a race he has plenty of motivation to keep racing hard and to finish as strong as he possibly can.


Matchup wagers can be used in a variety of different ways. They can be used as a hedge, whereby you bet on a driver to finish ahead of one you have selected to win. More frequently, however, they?re a good way to pick up some profits for a correctly handicapped race even if your driver doesn?t win. It isn?t unusual to have three or four of ?your? drivers finish in the top 5?but not win. Winning a NASCAR race involves a healthy mix of skill and luck, so properly placed matchup wagers can be some insurance against the intervention of fate. Nothing feels better than correctly picking the winner AND cashing all of your matchup wagers, but with proper analysis you can turn a profit on matchups just about every week regardless of which driver actually wins the race.


One final word about matchups?not only is it important to shop the monetary lines on the individual matchups, but also the matchup pairings themselves. Some books will pair up different drivers than other books, and these pairings may be more (or less) advantageous than those offered by a competing store.


Other wagers:


In the past couple of months, I?ve seen some other prop wagers offered offshore that don?t specifically involve picking a winner. Olympic, for example, has offered over/under props on the number of caution flags, the number of lead changes, and the running time of the race. Like everything else involved with NASCAR, there is a wealth of historical data of this sort for the clever handicapper to take advantage of. I found a weak line on the over/under for the running time of last weekend?s race and took advantage of it. It?s definitely worthwhile to keep your eyes open for other prop bets of this sort, and to be able to evaluate them.


Now that we?ve explained the mechanics of NASCAR betting, we?ll turn our attention to basic handicapping techniques for both matchups and futures in our next installment. I?ll also provide a list of my favorite NASCAR handicapping resources both on and off the Internet.

 

[djv]

TV just seen this info. Have not been in here much this year just did not have the time. I will keep it short. This info and how he is giving it to us is good info. Some of it a little old. But the fact every week 8 to 10 drivers have the best chance to win is true. Next some run very good at some tracks so/so at others and just no good at some. The way I made alittle money on this sports was matchs ups. I always looked for those top 15 that had best chance for that track. Or the young guy that has got good equipment and coming on. From one year to the next you can spot this. I always as in many sports wait a few week to see what if anything seems differant from the year before. How ever to start the year at Daytona you can take a chance on about 4/5 drivers and you should not only win your matches but agood chance to win race it self. This time of year you can look at top 15 point standing and make some plays. But look close at the numbers. If you have a driver that Is used to being in top 10 or even 12. If they are sitting in 13 or lower have chance to move up they can be good plays. Also in top ten If you have a Jeff Gordon who loves ending in top 3 spots. Is sitting with a chance to get there. He will try like hell to make it. I believe Tony Stewart is to low and these last 5/6 races will drive like nuts to try and move up. I hope some of this helps.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

TV just seen this info. Have not been in here much this year just did not have the time. I will keep it short. This info and how he is giving it to us is good info. Some of it a little old. But the fact every week 8 to 10 drivers have the best chance to win is true. Next some run very good at some tracks so/so at others and just no good at some. The way I made alittle money on this sports was matchs ups. I always looked for those top 15 that had best chance for that track. Or the young guy that has got good equipment and coming on. From one year to the next you can spot this. I always as in many sports wait a few week to see what if anything seems differant from the year before. How ever to start the year at Daytona you can take a chance on about 4/5 drivers and you should not only win your matches but agood chance to win race it self. This time of year you can look at top 15 point standing and make some plays. But look close at the numbers. If you have a driver that Is used to being in top 10 or even 12. If they are sitting in 13 or lower have chance to move up they can be good plays. Also in top ten If you have a Jeff Gordon who loves ending in top 3 spots. Is sitting with a chance to get there. He will try like hell to make it. I believe Tony Stewart is to low and these last 5/6 races will drive like nuts to try and move up. I hope some of this helps.

thanks...i guess the rest of the regulars are too busy to reply or help out in this part of the site.....

:shrug: :nono:

 

[djv]

I think many just dont like the sport. If they just had 5 bucks on it they would like/hate it more. Like a horse race its sucks till you have 5 bucks on it. I hapen to like Nascar myself and have found out alot of what it takes for these guy each week to survie. It's one of the longest season of all sports. Starts middle of Feb and ends 2 week November.

 

[djv]

Dam I thought Tony would race like hell as said above. I only wish I had put some money on him.

 

[djv]

Tony is rolling. Can it continue. Top 5 yes. He won all his match ups last two races. Him amd Gordon are on a tear.

 

[Phanatic]

allow me to toss my two cents in here..

 

[Shadetree]

TV

TV

You mentioned a racing database you found. Can you tell me where it is, if it is online? Thanks...

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

allow me to toss my two cents in here..

wow!!! the return of an original!!!!!

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Re: TV

Re: TV

You mentioned a racing database you found. Can you tell me where it is, if it is online? Thanks...

here

and just hit database.