Three wins and maybe a little help. That's what the Northern Arizona men's basketball team needs if it wants to make the six-team Big Sky postseason tournament.
The Lumberjacks haven't missed the conference tourney since the 1995-96 season, and in order to make this year's field, they absolutely must beat Montana State, Sacramento State and Montana at home in the next two weeks.
Even three victories might not be enough to get NAU in.
Seemingly, the bar has been set at six victories to qualify for the tournament.
Portland State (9-2) and Montana State (8-2) are already in. Montana (6-4) is on the verge of qualifying, and Sacramento State (5-6) and Weber State (5-7) are in solid shape. The Hornets finish with two of three games at home, where they are 4-1 in league games, while Weber State travels to Eastern Washington (4-6) and hosts Idaho State (3-8).
The Bengals, 0-4 away from Pocatello in Big Sky games, finish the season with three games on the road. NAU, the other 3-8 team, has three games at home. So the Lumberjacks certainly seem to have the advantage there.
NAU's best chance of grabbing a tournament spot probably involves the Lumberjacks finishing the season tied with either Sacramento State or Eastern Washington.
Eastern Washington finishes at home against Weber State and Idaho State, while Sac State has the Montana schools at home before coming to Flagstaff. If the Hornets lose one of the two games at home and NAU wins out, the Lumberjacks would win a tiebreaker based on the fact that NAU would have beaten UM or MSU once, while Sac State would have been swept by one of them.
The same goes for Eastern Washington. If form holds, Eastern would finish the season 6-8, meaning the Eagles' home loss to Montana last month would cripple them in terms of the tiebreaker.
Eastern still travels to Montana and Montana State.
The only way NAU could win a tiebreaker with 6-8 Weber State is if Montana State finishes ahead of Portland State in the standings, since NAU would own a win over Montana State.
So the Lumberjacks are still very much alive in the race for a league tournament spot. But one more slip-up would all but end their chances of playing in March.
STEVENS UPDATE
NAU coach Mike Adras expects guard DeJuan Stevens to play Thursday against Montana State.
Stevens, who had his jaw broken when he was assaulted outside a Flagstaff bar last month, practiced Tuesday for the first time since sustaining the injury.
"How much he can go, I have no idea," Adras said. "He hasn't done anything offensively or defensively for a month, so you can only imagine where his conditioning is at this point."
Any minutes Stevens could play Thursday would be extremely beneficial to Lumberjacks point guard Kyle Feuerbach, whose play has suffered in recent games because he's played so many minutes.
"I obviously hope it'll be extremely uplifting to the entire team, and not just to Kyle," Adras said.
Stevens is NAU's second-leading scorer at 12.8 points per game.
SCOUTING THE HURRICANE
Tulsa, NAU's opponent in Saturday's Bracket Buster pool matchup, certainly isn't the same team that it was in 2000, when it advanced all the way to the NCAA tournament elite eight before falling to North Carolina.
The Golden Hurricane enters tonight's WAC game against Fresno State at 6-15, but Tulsa has shown some recent improvement under interim coach Alvin "Pooh" Williamson.
Head coach John Phillips resigned on Christmas Day, opening the door for the 31-year-old Williamson to take over. Tulsa has been a breeding ground for successful coaches. Former Arkansas boss Nolan Richardson, Kansas coach Bill Self, Kentucky coach Tubby Smith and Tennessee coach Buzz Peterson have all coached at TU.
The Hurricane owns a couple of impressive victories this season, including a 65-54 win over WAC leader Texas-El Paso at home Feb. 3. Tulsa has won three of its last four home games.
IN THE PAINT
Guard Kelly Golob moved past Casey Frank into 17th place on NAU's all-time scoring list with 1,064 points. With 26 more points, he'll move past Jeff Altman into 16th. ... Ruben Boykin, Jr. is averaging 13.4 points and 8.3 rebounds in his last eight games. ... Teams are shooting 48.2 percent against the Lumberjacks in Big Sky games. NAU is allowing 80.5 points per game in league play.
The Lumberjacks haven't missed the conference tourney since the 1995-96 season, and in order to make this year's field, they absolutely must beat Montana State, Sacramento State and Montana at home in the next two weeks.
Even three victories might not be enough to get NAU in.
Seemingly, the bar has been set at six victories to qualify for the tournament.
Portland State (9-2) and Montana State (8-2) are already in. Montana (6-4) is on the verge of qualifying, and Sacramento State (5-6) and Weber State (5-7) are in solid shape. The Hornets finish with two of three games at home, where they are 4-1 in league games, while Weber State travels to Eastern Washington (4-6) and hosts Idaho State (3-8).
The Bengals, 0-4 away from Pocatello in Big Sky games, finish the season with three games on the road. NAU, the other 3-8 team, has three games at home. So the Lumberjacks certainly seem to have the advantage there.
NAU's best chance of grabbing a tournament spot probably involves the Lumberjacks finishing the season tied with either Sacramento State or Eastern Washington.
Eastern Washington finishes at home against Weber State and Idaho State, while Sac State has the Montana schools at home before coming to Flagstaff. If the Hornets lose one of the two games at home and NAU wins out, the Lumberjacks would win a tiebreaker based on the fact that NAU would have beaten UM or MSU once, while Sac State would have been swept by one of them.
The same goes for Eastern Washington. If form holds, Eastern would finish the season 6-8, meaning the Eagles' home loss to Montana last month would cripple them in terms of the tiebreaker.
Eastern still travels to Montana and Montana State.
The only way NAU could win a tiebreaker with 6-8 Weber State is if Montana State finishes ahead of Portland State in the standings, since NAU would own a win over Montana State.
So the Lumberjacks are still very much alive in the race for a league tournament spot. But one more slip-up would all but end their chances of playing in March.
STEVENS UPDATE
NAU coach Mike Adras expects guard DeJuan Stevens to play Thursday against Montana State.
Stevens, who had his jaw broken when he was assaulted outside a Flagstaff bar last month, practiced Tuesday for the first time since sustaining the injury.
"How much he can go, I have no idea," Adras said. "He hasn't done anything offensively or defensively for a month, so you can only imagine where his conditioning is at this point."
Any minutes Stevens could play Thursday would be extremely beneficial to Lumberjacks point guard Kyle Feuerbach, whose play has suffered in recent games because he's played so many minutes.
"I obviously hope it'll be extremely uplifting to the entire team, and not just to Kyle," Adras said.
Stevens is NAU's second-leading scorer at 12.8 points per game.
SCOUTING THE HURRICANE
Tulsa, NAU's opponent in Saturday's Bracket Buster pool matchup, certainly isn't the same team that it was in 2000, when it advanced all the way to the NCAA tournament elite eight before falling to North Carolina.
The Golden Hurricane enters tonight's WAC game against Fresno State at 6-15, but Tulsa has shown some recent improvement under interim coach Alvin "Pooh" Williamson.
Head coach John Phillips resigned on Christmas Day, opening the door for the 31-year-old Williamson to take over. Tulsa has been a breeding ground for successful coaches. Former Arkansas boss Nolan Richardson, Kansas coach Bill Self, Kentucky coach Tubby Smith and Tennessee coach Buzz Peterson have all coached at TU.
The Hurricane owns a couple of impressive victories this season, including a 65-54 win over WAC leader Texas-El Paso at home Feb. 3. Tulsa has won three of its last four home games.
IN THE PAINT
Guard Kelly Golob moved past Casey Frank into 17th place on NAU's all-time scoring list with 1,064 points. With 26 more points, he'll move past Jeff Altman into 16th. ... Ruben Boykin, Jr. is averaging 13.4 points and 8.3 rebounds in his last eight games. ... Teams are shooting 48.2 percent against the Lumberjacks in Big Sky games. NAU is allowing 80.5 points per game in league play.
