Navy/MD

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
I will focus on these two teams in this thread this year as they are the teams I follow closely.

I was really hoping that Hawaii's great showing on the road last night would help Navy lay a much lower number than first anticipated. Well, maybe it is lower, but -16.5 is a little steep. Not going to play it yet as I think/hoping it will come down based on Hawaii's first game. Also have not seen a total yet, but there will be plenty of points in this one and it may be the best way to play the game. Hawaii was impressive last night and certainly not as bad as everyone thought, but Colorado State was an absolute mess defensively. The change in Hawaii's offense actually plays into Navy's hands as the better teams in their league (Houston, Memphis, UCF, etc.) all play similar offenses. Navy's preseason focus has been on pass defense since they have to improve to compete better in conference. Offensively they have been working non-stop on their passing game. I still do not expect them to pass much but they know they need to have it be more more of a weapon to take the next step. I am expecting a huge year from Perry at QB. Their offense should have many wrinkles in it this year as Abey moves to WR, Lewis will play at QB also and Perry can play RB. Will keep an eye on this line and wait to see a total.

Everyone knows MD is a mess, but it is not nearly bad as ESPN makes it out to be. I really hate what ESPN has become but they seem to think they are some great investigative journalists in this MD scandal. Jordan McNair's death was both tragic and sad, but ESPN has been using it to make more of the MD culture than really is there. I am not making any excuses for MD only simply saying that the "toxic" culture at MD is not as bad as ESPN wants you to think. Every program has disgruntled players who feel wronged, so you can always find a player or two to slam any program in the country. I have been to many division one summer camps over the years and there is not one where coaches are not yelling at players on the field and in the weight room. It is tough to motivate 18-21 year old young men in 90 degree heat when they are tired. I do not think the "culture" at any top 50 program is much different than it is at MD. If it was, MD players would be leaving in droves and that is not happening. With the Board involved now, my guess is Durkin will have to take the fall since it has to be somebody's fault. While I certainly do not have all the facts, I do not believe Durkin to be the ogre ESPN is making him out to be.

I certainly do not want to get into a debate about this or upset anyone, I only say it to set up the game. All that said, I am waiting on the MD line to climb over 14. My thought right now is that the MD players are going to come together, try to honor McNair and try not be that affected by all this noise. Remember they man handled this TX team in TX last year. They will be much better offensively this year. Hill is an elite QB who can run and pass, they have excellent RBs and a veteran offensive line. They will move the ball in this game. Defensively there are certainly some questions, but Texas is no offensive juggernaut. I am a Tom Herman fan, but he still does not have "his" players on the offensive side to do what he wants. For now, I am not seeing a TX blowout on the road. MD's schedule is absolutely brutal as they get about the worse draw you can have in the Big 10. If they do not get off to a good start it could be a long year given all that is going on.

More on both these games as the week progresses.
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Guess I was expecting the reaction to the Hawaii game too fast. It has certainly come in now as Navy is already down to 11 from 16.5 Total is at 62.5.

Will watch for another day, but I will be hitting the over as soon as I see any upward movement.
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Putting this in now.

Northwestern +11.5
Navy-1
Navy Ov 52.5

Yes, I play teasers, even in college. I have been around a long time, and while some dismiss them, I use them when I simply like the situation. I especially like them in Week 1 as I have no idea really what to expect so it allows me to lessen the number of my plays. Will usually have one per week, but probably will have at least one more this week.

MD line is now at -13.5 most places. I still think it will go to at least 14 if not higher. Will wait on it some more but I am liking MD more and more in this game the more I dig in.
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Navy now -10 after another move down, about where I thought it would open and a TD off the initial line. Maybe more? Will still watch.

I am really starting to like Wyoming +1 at home against WASU this week.
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Want a little action tonight so played:

W. Mich +15
W. Ky +47
Col St +17.5

Also another smaller one I played:

Liberty+15.5
Coastal Car +39.5
Louisville +34.5

I actually like Coastal Carolina in that game. South Carolina has to be looking ahead to Georgia. Liberty can play. I expect that line to keep coming down. I think Lville can put up a couple TDs against the Bama secondary and that should be enough.

Still watching MD and Navy lines.
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Maryland moved to 14 at my site, so I just put this in

Maryland +15 -130

Line may move some early tomorrow, but I like this number. I am actually surprised it has not moved up as everyone seems to be on Texas. DC is full of Texas fans and everyone thinks they are going to roll. I am counting on MD players being happy to start the season and react positively to all the negativity in the press. I like their offense so I think they can put up some points to keep them in it. I like mostly what I hear and see from Canada except for the possibility of alternating QBs. I am not in favor of 2 QB systems. Hill should be the starter but we will see. Watch out for specials teams as they were a mostly a mess for both teams last year and created 3 TDs.
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Going to be short on time tomorrow so I just put this in:

Navy -9.5 -120

There is tons of uncertainty starting the season, but the one thing you can count on is that Navy win run the ball and come to play. They reload at every position every year and play as hard as anyone in the country which is why they are one of my favorite teams. Hawaii looked much better than everyone thought, but Colorado State's defense is bad, Colorado already has 28 on them in the first half. Not sure you can judge Hawaii's offense by that game. As I said before, this is an offense Navy sees almost all season so they know how to play it. The big difference I see in this one is that Hawaii is going to have trouble stopping Navy's offense. Having to play last week certainly puts them at a disadvantage as they do not have a lot of time to prepare for Navy. I think Navy runs wild in this one (would not be surprised if Perry goes for 200 yards) and wins by 2 tds.

I do not have a Navy team total yet on my site, but I will likely be on the over when I see it.
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Thanks Riff, not quite up to your standards, but I appreciate the kind words.

Navy line jumped backed up to 11.5. Guessing it is because folks are realizing that Colorado State sucks. Glad I am in at 9.5.

Weather looks to be a factor in the MD game if the rain sticks around today, but should only help MD backers.
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Maryland now down to 12.5 most places. Very surprised to see late money on them given that most sites I have looked at overwhelmingly favor Texas in this one. I like the line movement especially since I got 15. Looking forward to this one.
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
MD was the better team in the first half, but I think they made some very questionable coaching calls where having a head coach would make a difference. They should have slowed the game down up 24-7 instead of going faster, used a timeout when Texas went up tempo and should have never ran a play to a player on the goal line that has yet to touch the ball in the game. They got a little cocky and it is just some poor coaching in my opinion that has lead to Texas getting all the momentum. No way this game should be almost tied at halftime.

That said, I still like getting +15 but I have enough on this game that I will take a middle position at halftime guaranteeing me decent profits with a chance for a middle. Taking a little Texas money -7 in the second half. Gives me a 10 point middle.
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Matt Canada has proved one thing today, he is certainly not ready to be a head coach. He may personally cost his team a win. Didn't factor enough of his idiocy into my capping!!
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Have to give it to the MD players, they certainly stepped up and glad I was right about that. They were the better team. Still a little annoyed by some of the bad coaching decisions by Canada. Hopefully, he learns from them, but this is a talented MD team. Nice to start with an easy winner. Cost myself a little money but I will always take that shot at an over TD middle when I think I have the winning bet. It's worth it when you have a decent size bet.

Now lets get Navy for a good day. Of course, I will fall asleep before it is over.
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Navy is getting pounded, now back up to -14. I am making a small play on the Ov 61 -120.


I think Harbaugh is going to be in trouble at Michigan. They do not look good at all. Patterson does not appear to be the answer. Big money maker for the books as everyone was on Michigan.

Should have bet a lot more on Liberty, I knew they were going to play well.

Been a long day, no way I make it through the Navy game so I am not even going to start watching it. I will tape it and watch it when everyone else is at church!
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Glad I added the Over play on Navy. I speeded through the game this morning. Navy's defense once again just could not defend the passing game. They may have worked on it all summer, but they still have serious issues that are going to hurt them all year in their conference. I would also say that their offense was disappointing. Yes, they scored points but they were also down 28-0. Perry did not look very comfortable running the option. He was hesitant at times and the offense simply did not look as dynamic as usual. Overall, a very disappointing game for Navy.

Next up for Navy is a home game against Memphis and Maryland has Bowling Green on the road.

Certainly a possible let down spot for MD. Memphis probably throws it better than Hawaii so Navy could be in trouble at home.
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Current lines:

Navy +4.5

Maryland -16

I did not like what I saw from Navy in game 1. I expected a lot more from Perry at QB and I just did not see it in game 1. The defense also did not look like they improved at all agains the pass which has to be demoralizing to the coaching staff since all of camp was spent on improving their pass defense. I am positive they will improve but until I see it, I am betting on them against a team that can throw the ball all over the field. I will likely be on the over in this one no matter what the line.

Maryland is riding high and has a chance to get off to a very good start to the season given their schedule. They have to since they have to play on the road later at Michigan, Iowa and Penn State; and have Michigan St. and Ohio State at home. But they have a good chance to start at least 5-1. There offense is good and will only get better. They did not run the ball well against Texas but that is the one thing Texas is good at so I expect them to put up solid rushing numbers going forward. I had some concerns on the defensive side of the ball, but they were impressive against Texas. I have no doubt they are the better team this week but this could be a let down game for them and I am not 100% confident in the coaching staff getting them focused. Canada made some glaring head coaching mistakes last week in my opinion and I think he struggled with the head coaching duties since he is so focused on the offense (for which he has done a great job). It is very tough to do both especially when you have no experience at all. I am hoping he learns from those mistakes and maybe gives other coaches some more responsibility so he can also focus on making good in-game head coaching decisions. Just think it is much different when you are responsible for the decisions being made versus making suggestions.

I think 16 is a lot of points on the road. It opened at 14 most places and was bet up quickly. My best guess is that it will revert back to 14 over the week. As such, I made this play this morning:

Bowling Green +17 -130

I think MD will win but just do not think they will blow them out.
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Navy total comes out at 70. Going to give it a day or so. I was expecting more like 65 or 66. 70 matches the highest in the last 3 match ups and that was the last home game against them. Will see if we can get a better number as the week goes on.


My father played at FSU so I always follow them. I commented last year that I was not a fan of the Taggert hire at all. I do not like the fact that coaches can change teams on a whim while players can not, but that is a rant for another day. It is very hard to come into a top program and try to complete wholesale changes right away. I also do not like his offense. Always works great against weaker teams and is a great way to win 7-10 games with good talent, but I do not think you win national championships with it. I may be a little old school that way, but defenses are only getting faster and getting better at defending the spread. Va Tech game planned perfectly against it with a young defense. Was very impressed by how they attacked the running game which really sets up that whole offense. I know it is only one game and I am sure they will get better, but it was a brutal opening game.
 

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Navy line up to +6.5. I am going to keep an eye on this. While I am hesitant to play Navy, getting them over a touchdown at home in tempting. They have only lost 2 games in Annapolis the last 3 years, one by 10 to UCF last year and the Conference championship game to Temple by 24 two years ago, neither of which is a bad loss. I need to look into Memphis some more as I do not think their win last week against Mercer tells you much.

I did put in a small play on Liberty +10.5 yesterday morning. They were very good last week and I think they are 11-1 ATS in their history when lines were posted (I think this is accurate but not 100% sure).
 
Last edited:

BASON

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
4,380
48
48
Rehoboth Beach
Rain certainly looks to be a factor in the Navy game. For now, it is looking like rain most of the day. Total is down to 68.5 and have to assume that the weather is part of the reason. Line is up to -7.
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top