by Adam/ Offshore employee/consultant
Like clockwork each year, when the calendar flips over to May, the NBA Conspiracy Theorists come out in full force. Their preaching typically lasts six weeks into mid-June then quiets down as summer begins. Their group of tin foil hat wearing believers grows each season. Typically, they seek out two different types of people.
Gamblers that find comfort in blaming someone or something else for their losses, instead of themselves.
People with obsessive fan disorder, a disorder which causes those affected to truly believe the league and opposing players are out to screw them and their favorite team.
Their argument may seem convincing, but please, before it is too late to turn back, take a minute, put down that roll of tin foil, open your curtains and read the rest of this article.
PLAYERS HAVE NOTHING TO GAIN FROM FIXING GAMES
Since the referee scandal several years ago, NBA betting limits has been slashed dramatically. The most you can bet offshore on a point spread in an NBA playoff game in 2014 is $15,000 (you?ll be lucky to be able to bet half that amount in Las Vegas). For totals and money lines the big limit offshore is $5,000. The team with the lowest payroll in the NBA playoffs this year is Houston at $57,823,063. This means for one game in the playoffs, players on the Rockets earn a combined $657,080. To put that number in perspective, in order to double their salary for the game by betting, Rockets players would have to place the max limit bet at 43 different offshore sportsbooks, or roughly 86 casinos in Las Vegas (or any combination in-between the two). Hopefully I don?t have to tell you that neither or those are realistic scenarios.
FIXES ARE WHEN TEAMS TAKE A DIVE, NOT PLAY COMPETITIVELY
If players or an outside influence was actually able to fix an NBA game or series, nothing would be left up to chance. The opening round of the playoffs was the most competitive ever. Five series had a game seven and two were decided on the final play. There were eight overtime games and ten games decided by three points or less. The Grizzlies and Hawks both had 3-2 leads. Paul Pierce got half a finger nail on a Kyle Lowry shot to save the Nets. Damien Lillard hit a 30 foot jump shot at the buzzer to send the Rockets home. Hopefully I don?t have to tell you comebacks and last second outcomes can?t be fixed, because they can?t be guaranteed.
THE FIX WOULDN?T BE IN ON A HUGE FAVORITE TO WIN
If a series was fixed, it wouldn?t be on a favorite with a price tag that burns up all the profit. As stated earlier, the limits on games are NBA extremely low, they are just as low for series bets. The six favorites to advance were, Miami -2500, San Antonio -700, Indiana -600, Oklahoma City -380, LA Clippers -375 and Brooklyn -130. Hopefully I don?t have to tell you that nobody on earth with the capabilities to fix a game is going near those prices.
REFEREES ARE NOT HIRED TO MANIPULATE GAMES
In the first round of the NBA Playoffs, there were 13 possible elimination games in seven series (I won?t count Miami since they swept in four). In the thirteen elimination games, the seven teams which won their series were given a combined 356 free throw attempts. The seven series losing teams were given 337. If you take out Dallas and San Antonio out of the equation, the six winning teams were given 295 free throws and the six losing teams were also given exactly 295 free throws. In the fourth quarter of the 13 elimination games, the seven teams which won the series were given 70 free throw attempts, a far cry from the 111 free throws that teams losing the series were given. In the fourth quarter of all 13 elimination games there were only six lead changes that came via free throws. Atlanta got two, Golden State got two and Houston got two, all three of those teams got the series. Hopefully I don?t have to tell you that the way to manipulate a game if you are a referee isn?t to give the winning team more chances to score points. (Series by series documentation of this posted at the bottom.)
THE LEAGUE DOES NOT SCRIPT SERIES BASED ON MOST PROFITABLE OUTCOME
The NBA makes the majority of their money from three revenue streams, broadcasting, marketing and merchandise. Three series winning teams, Washington, Brooklyn and Portland ranked in the bottom third of the NBA for both audience size and viewers per game during the regular season. Chicago and Toronto have the fourth and seventh largest audience size and viewers per game respectively, and lost out. Lebron, Wade, Durant and Paul are the only four players remaining in the playoffs that sell more jerseys than Stephen Curry & James Harden, who both lost out in the first round. The Heat are the only team remaining in the playoffs that sell more merchandise than the Bulls. The Warriors who lost out, make more money from merchandise sales than the Spurs, Nets, Clippers, Blazers, Pacers and Wizards, who all advanced. The NBA is the most internationally focused sports league on the planet. TV Ratings, ticket and merchandise sales from Raptors games were among the highest ever for an opening round series. Hopefully I don?t have to tell you the league wouldn?t script series so the teams with smaller markets and sales revenues would advance.
JUST BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN DONE BEFORE, DOESN?T MEAN IT IS HAPPENING AGAIN
Confirming your thoughts about the NBA being fixed or scripted by using the Tim Donaghy situation as proof becomes less and less relevant as each day passes. It has been more than seven years since he was a part of the league and we are well past that point in time. Even when Donaghy was refereeing, he wasn?t manipulating the outcomes of games. He was relaying information to bettors about which superstars tend to get more calls than other and which referees have relationships with players on which teams. The bettors playing his games didn?t hit more than 70% against the spread, a number which has been documented by several sources. Donaghy claims he was told by league officials on which players to give certain calls to, (which was never confirmed), but never once said he was directed to influence the outcome of a series or game for NBA owners. The superstar theory exists in every league, no matter where you look, star players get the benefit of the doubt more than not. Hopefully I don?t have to tell you that this does not influence the outcome of series and is a horrible way to determine who you bet on.
This is historically one of the most entertaining playoffs of all time through the first round. If you are going to make it more entertaining by wagering money, do it with money you can afford.
Atlanta vs. Indiana (Game 6+7)
Game Free Throw Attempts: Atlanta 40 Indiana 55
4Q FT Attempts (Non Intentional): Atlanta 13 Indiana 14
4Q Lead Changes via FT: Atlanta 2 Indiana 0
Brooklyn vs. Toronto (Game 6+7)
Game Free Throw Attempts: Brooklyn 55 Toronto 53
4Q FT Attempts (Non Intentional): Brooklyn 6 Toronto 16
4Q Lead Changes via FT: Brooklyn 0 Toronto 0
Dallas vs. San Antonio (Game 6+7)
Game Free Throw Attempts: Dallas 41 San Antonio 61
4Q FT Attempts (Non Intentional): Dallas 16 San Antonio 16
4Q Lead Changes via FT: Dallas 0 San Antonio 0
Memphis vs. Oklahoma City (Game 6+7)
Game Free Throw Attempts: Memphis 62 Oklahoma City 55
4Q FT Attempts (Non Intentional): Memphis 22 Oklahoma City 8
4Q Lead Changes via FT: Memphis 0 Oklahoma City 0
Golden State vs. LA Clippers (Game 6+7)
Game Free Throw Attempts: Golden State 72 LA Clippers 66
4Q FT Attempts (Non Intentional): Golden State 26 LA Clippers 9
4Q Lead Changes via FT: Golden State 2 LA Clippers 0
Houston vs. Portland (Game 5+6)
Game Free Throw Attempts: Houston 49 Portland 45
4Q FT Attempts (Non Intentional): Houston 15 Portland 15
4Q Lead Changes via FT: Houston 2 Portland 0
Washington vs. Chicago (Game 5)
Game Free Throw Attempts: Washington 19 Chicago 17
4Q FT Attempts (Non Intentional): Washington 2 Chicago 3
4Q Lead Changes via FT: Washington 0 Chicago 0
Like clockwork each year, when the calendar flips over to May, the NBA Conspiracy Theorists come out in full force. Their preaching typically lasts six weeks into mid-June then quiets down as summer begins. Their group of tin foil hat wearing believers grows each season. Typically, they seek out two different types of people.
Gamblers that find comfort in blaming someone or something else for their losses, instead of themselves.
People with obsessive fan disorder, a disorder which causes those affected to truly believe the league and opposing players are out to screw them and their favorite team.
Their argument may seem convincing, but please, before it is too late to turn back, take a minute, put down that roll of tin foil, open your curtains and read the rest of this article.
PLAYERS HAVE NOTHING TO GAIN FROM FIXING GAMES
Since the referee scandal several years ago, NBA betting limits has been slashed dramatically. The most you can bet offshore on a point spread in an NBA playoff game in 2014 is $15,000 (you?ll be lucky to be able to bet half that amount in Las Vegas). For totals and money lines the big limit offshore is $5,000. The team with the lowest payroll in the NBA playoffs this year is Houston at $57,823,063. This means for one game in the playoffs, players on the Rockets earn a combined $657,080. To put that number in perspective, in order to double their salary for the game by betting, Rockets players would have to place the max limit bet at 43 different offshore sportsbooks, or roughly 86 casinos in Las Vegas (or any combination in-between the two). Hopefully I don?t have to tell you that neither or those are realistic scenarios.
FIXES ARE WHEN TEAMS TAKE A DIVE, NOT PLAY COMPETITIVELY
If players or an outside influence was actually able to fix an NBA game or series, nothing would be left up to chance. The opening round of the playoffs was the most competitive ever. Five series had a game seven and two were decided on the final play. There were eight overtime games and ten games decided by three points or less. The Grizzlies and Hawks both had 3-2 leads. Paul Pierce got half a finger nail on a Kyle Lowry shot to save the Nets. Damien Lillard hit a 30 foot jump shot at the buzzer to send the Rockets home. Hopefully I don?t have to tell you comebacks and last second outcomes can?t be fixed, because they can?t be guaranteed.
THE FIX WOULDN?T BE IN ON A HUGE FAVORITE TO WIN
If a series was fixed, it wouldn?t be on a favorite with a price tag that burns up all the profit. As stated earlier, the limits on games are NBA extremely low, they are just as low for series bets. The six favorites to advance were, Miami -2500, San Antonio -700, Indiana -600, Oklahoma City -380, LA Clippers -375 and Brooklyn -130. Hopefully I don?t have to tell you that nobody on earth with the capabilities to fix a game is going near those prices.
REFEREES ARE NOT HIRED TO MANIPULATE GAMES
In the first round of the NBA Playoffs, there were 13 possible elimination games in seven series (I won?t count Miami since they swept in four). In the thirteen elimination games, the seven teams which won their series were given a combined 356 free throw attempts. The seven series losing teams were given 337. If you take out Dallas and San Antonio out of the equation, the six winning teams were given 295 free throws and the six losing teams were also given exactly 295 free throws. In the fourth quarter of the 13 elimination games, the seven teams which won the series were given 70 free throw attempts, a far cry from the 111 free throws that teams losing the series were given. In the fourth quarter of all 13 elimination games there were only six lead changes that came via free throws. Atlanta got two, Golden State got two and Houston got two, all three of those teams got the series. Hopefully I don?t have to tell you that the way to manipulate a game if you are a referee isn?t to give the winning team more chances to score points. (Series by series documentation of this posted at the bottom.)
THE LEAGUE DOES NOT SCRIPT SERIES BASED ON MOST PROFITABLE OUTCOME
The NBA makes the majority of their money from three revenue streams, broadcasting, marketing and merchandise. Three series winning teams, Washington, Brooklyn and Portland ranked in the bottom third of the NBA for both audience size and viewers per game during the regular season. Chicago and Toronto have the fourth and seventh largest audience size and viewers per game respectively, and lost out. Lebron, Wade, Durant and Paul are the only four players remaining in the playoffs that sell more jerseys than Stephen Curry & James Harden, who both lost out in the first round. The Heat are the only team remaining in the playoffs that sell more merchandise than the Bulls. The Warriors who lost out, make more money from merchandise sales than the Spurs, Nets, Clippers, Blazers, Pacers and Wizards, who all advanced. The NBA is the most internationally focused sports league on the planet. TV Ratings, ticket and merchandise sales from Raptors games were among the highest ever for an opening round series. Hopefully I don?t have to tell you the league wouldn?t script series so the teams with smaller markets and sales revenues would advance.
JUST BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN DONE BEFORE, DOESN?T MEAN IT IS HAPPENING AGAIN
Confirming your thoughts about the NBA being fixed or scripted by using the Tim Donaghy situation as proof becomes less and less relevant as each day passes. It has been more than seven years since he was a part of the league and we are well past that point in time. Even when Donaghy was refereeing, he wasn?t manipulating the outcomes of games. He was relaying information to bettors about which superstars tend to get more calls than other and which referees have relationships with players on which teams. The bettors playing his games didn?t hit more than 70% against the spread, a number which has been documented by several sources. Donaghy claims he was told by league officials on which players to give certain calls to, (which was never confirmed), but never once said he was directed to influence the outcome of a series or game for NBA owners. The superstar theory exists in every league, no matter where you look, star players get the benefit of the doubt more than not. Hopefully I don?t have to tell you that this does not influence the outcome of series and is a horrible way to determine who you bet on.
This is historically one of the most entertaining playoffs of all time through the first round. If you are going to make it more entertaining by wagering money, do it with money you can afford.
Atlanta vs. Indiana (Game 6+7)
Game Free Throw Attempts: Atlanta 40 Indiana 55
4Q FT Attempts (Non Intentional): Atlanta 13 Indiana 14
4Q Lead Changes via FT: Atlanta 2 Indiana 0
Brooklyn vs. Toronto (Game 6+7)
Game Free Throw Attempts: Brooklyn 55 Toronto 53
4Q FT Attempts (Non Intentional): Brooklyn 6 Toronto 16
4Q Lead Changes via FT: Brooklyn 0 Toronto 0
Dallas vs. San Antonio (Game 6+7)
Game Free Throw Attempts: Dallas 41 San Antonio 61
4Q FT Attempts (Non Intentional): Dallas 16 San Antonio 16
4Q Lead Changes via FT: Dallas 0 San Antonio 0
Memphis vs. Oklahoma City (Game 6+7)
Game Free Throw Attempts: Memphis 62 Oklahoma City 55
4Q FT Attempts (Non Intentional): Memphis 22 Oklahoma City 8
4Q Lead Changes via FT: Memphis 0 Oklahoma City 0
Golden State vs. LA Clippers (Game 6+7)
Game Free Throw Attempts: Golden State 72 LA Clippers 66
4Q FT Attempts (Non Intentional): Golden State 26 LA Clippers 9
4Q Lead Changes via FT: Golden State 2 LA Clippers 0
Houston vs. Portland (Game 5+6)
Game Free Throw Attempts: Houston 49 Portland 45
4Q FT Attempts (Non Intentional): Houston 15 Portland 15
4Q Lead Changes via FT: Houston 2 Portland 0
Washington vs. Chicago (Game 5)
Game Free Throw Attempts: Washington 19 Chicago 17
4Q FT Attempts (Non Intentional): Washington 2 Chicago 3
4Q Lead Changes via FT: Washington 0 Chicago 0
