NBA FRI 0222610 - Early Thoughts and Value Hunting

[BillyBatts]

2-0 last night for me, I have a busy day today so I'm getting an early start.

At 1st glance here are my intial leans
Wizz -1.5 and over
Hawks -3 and under 195
Thunder-Wolves under 201
Rockets +3
Pistons +10 (possible POD)
Clips-Suns over 208
Hornets +4.5


Anyone like anything yet???:0corn

 

[BillyBatts]

Plays

Plays

Posted Record
49-32 W/L
16-11 POD's

Locked in

Pistons +10 POD

Denver on a b2b and a look ahead to the Lakers. They also struggle against the "have nots" of the league.

Nuggets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Nuggets are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 0 days rest.
Nuggets are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.


Will probably add one or 2 more by the end of the day. :toast:

 

[Gibson7]

Thoughts???

Thoughts???

The Thunder have won by 2 vs the T Wolves the last two times in Minny. They should have won by 5 earlier this week but gave up a meaningless 3 pointer with 1 sec left. Minny is 5-25 ATS on the road this season and OKC is back home on a Friday night to rebound their winning streak. Should be a full house tonight, I'm going and I have heard many others talk about going as well. We all want to see Durant get back on his 25 points a game streak. Im thinking the Thunder Roll tonight. Possibly an over play too.


Thunder 118

T Wolves 102

 

[BillyBatts]

I agree

I agree

The Thunder have won by 2 vs the T Wolves the last two times in Minny. They should have won by 5 earlier this week but gave up a meaningless 3 pointer with 1 sec left. Minny is 5-25 ATS on the road this season and OKC is back home on a Friday night to rebound their winning streak. Should be a full house tonight, I'm going and I have heard many others talk about going as well. We all want to see Durant get back on his 25 points a game streak. Im thinking the Thunder Roll tonight. Possibly an over play too.


Thunder 118

T Wolves 102

I agree with the Thunder play, I think this could get ugly. That being said, blowouts tend to go under, and the Wolves have been going under recently. They were on a major over streak on the road, but the linesmakers haven't caught on yet to thier lack of scoring. 3 of thier last 4 on the orad have went under, and I see high intensity from OKC on defense tonight. Best of luck to ya. :toast:

 

[Ools]

Things i will no longer do:

1. bet on Golden State (i enacted this rule last week and was on Denver last night

2. Bet on Indiana under - this room seems to be 85% wrong on Pacers unders...staying away from here on out.

Examining:
Port +3.5
Sac +7
Atl -3

billy - would love to see the query on team that play Golden State in game 1 of b2b...curious if their style causes any issues the next game (style=no defense)

 

[BillyBatts]

Not really a factor

Not really a factor

Here ya go....

poo:team=Warriors and po:rest=0 and 20091030<=date
SU: 2-11 (-5.5)
ATS: 6-7-0 (-0.8) avg line: 4.7
O/U: 5-8-0 (-4.7) avg total: 217.9


and over last 2 years

poo:team=Warriors and po:rest=0 and 20081030<=date
SU: 9-23 (-4.9)
ATS: 15-16-1 (-0.5) avg line: 4.4
O/U: 16-16-0 (-0.1) avg total: 218.9



The straight up losses is kind of interestiing :0corn

 

[40seven]

Nice going last night

Nice going last night

2-0 last night for me,

Just getting started. Only Play for sure is Clips Suns Over 208.


More later and again nice going BB

 

[Ools]

Here ya go....

poo:team=Warriors and po:rest=0 and 20091030<=date
SU: 2-11 (-5.5)
ATS: 6-7-0 (-0.8) avg line: 4.7
O/U: 5-8-0 (-4.7) avg total: 217.9


and over last 2 years

poo:team=Warriors and po:rest=0 and 20081030<=date
SU: 9-23 (-4.9)
ATS: 15-16-1 (-0.5) avg line: 4.4
O/U: 16-16-0 (-0.1) avg total: 218.9



The straight up losses is kind of interestiing :0corn

I see a factor there -- betting straight up...I'll take a little sprinkle on Detroit tonight at +425

 

[granpa]

Thoughts

Thoughts

2-1 last night, losing Wisky/Indy O 124.5 by 1/2 a point. Too bad bench guys can't make free throws.

Leans for tonight:

Butler/Valpo O 143.5
Niagara -3.5
Char/Mem U 194.5
Dal/Atl U 195

GLTA - G :00hour

 

[owtkast3]

Hey guys first of all let me say you guys do a great job with your picks and stats. Your write ups and reasoning are the main reason that this is the only NBA thread I ever see myself reading from top to bottom.

Anyway I dont do a ton of NBA handicapping im more of a late season college person. I watch and tail some college cappers and then late FEBruary and March I dive in with my own stuff after gettng a good assesment of the College season and teams.

I do see a total tonight that I like and I would be interested in hearing your thoughts... I really like the Cleveland game over 206. I think this is very reachable especially with Shaq being out. I watch just about every Cavs game as I am from Ohio and after watching last night I have come to the conclusion that with Shaq out Cleveland for the time being will run a more spread it out drive and dish offense. This will not only open up more lanes for Lebron but will also do the same for the slasing Jamison, Hickson, Varejao and to some degree Delonte. This will also free up the shooters to spot up and knock down some shots as we saw Mo break out of his funk last night and hit some big 3's.

Clevelands pace will definitely pick up and like we have seen lately especially with the addition of Jamison their rotations on defense havent been that solid and with the big shaqtus not in there to bang and show presence I can see teams really doing the same to cleveland as they want to do.

Any thoughts would be appreciated but for this second my first pick on your guys thread will be

Cleveland Over 206 for 5 units...

1 unit= $50

Good Luck all.

ps--- Billy I hopped on the Detroit wagon already!

 

[colts]

Hello all - I have been lurking on this this thread for quite a while now, and value the information posted here. You guys do a great job researching pertinent information and sharing it. Owtkast3's post is very good. I agree with the Cavs having a more up tempo game with Shaq out. Also the Raptors score more at home. A trend that supports the over is - TORONTO: 25-9 Over off SU loss as a favorite. With all that being said, I don't like the fact that the line opened up at 202.5 and is now 206.5. Maybe they will fly way over the 206.5.

 

[JBrilman]

Hey guys first of all let me say you guys do a great job with your picks and stats. Your write ups and reasoning are the main reason that this is the only NBA thread I ever see myself reading from top to bottom.



ps--- Billy I hopped on the Detroit wagon already!

Owtkast3 - Welcome to the forum and thank you for contributing, nice write up and I agree 1000% percent.

Billy - Det +10 could be POD material

 

[Ools]

Hey guys first of all let me say you guys do a great job with your picks and stats. Your write ups and reasoning are the main reason that this is the only NBA thread I ever see myself reading from top to bottom.

Anyway I dont do a ton of NBA handicapping im more of a late season college person. I watch and tail some college cappers and then late FEBruary and March I dive in with my own stuff after gettng a good assesment of the College season and teams.

I do see a total tonight that I like and I would be interested in hearing your thoughts... I really like the Cleveland game over 206. I think this is very reachable especially with Shaq being out. I watch just about every Cavs game as I am from Ohio and after watching last night I have come to the conclusion that with Shaq out Cleveland for the time being will run a more spread it out drive and dish offense. This will not only open up more lanes for Lebron but will also do the same for the slasing Jamison, Hickson, Varejao and to some degree Delonte. This will also free up the shooters to spot up and knock down some shots as we saw Mo break out of his funk last night and hit some big 3's.

Clevelands pace will definitely pick up and like we have seen lately especially with the addition of Jamison their rotations on defense havent been that solid and with the big shaqtus not in there to bang and show presence I can see teams really doing the same to cleveland as they want to do.

Any thoughts would be appreciated but for this second my first pick on your guys thread will be

Cleveland Over 206 for 5 units...

1 unit= $50

Good Luck all.

ps--- Billy I hopped on the Detroit wagon already!

I like it -- i think that 202 open was pre-shaq injury line

 

[BillyBatts]

Thanks

Thanks

Thanks for the vote of confidence on the Pistons play,nice to see a few of you already on it . Seen a nice article the other day where road double digit dogs are hitting over 60% it said also they tend to do a little better the 2nd half of the year, please feel free to query. That isn't the main reason I'm on Detroit , but it helps
Outcast and colt- welcome and thanks for the positive feedback. These guys do a great job, and yes I agree with the raps over. Not sure if I will play it or not.

Updated leans
hawks and under
thunder under
suns over
rockets

Will check back in a bit.

 

[granpa]

Final Card

Final Card

Final Card for me tonight:

Butler/Valpo O 143.5
Niagara -3.5
Char/Mem U 194.5
Dal/Atl U 195

Good luck to everyone and see you at the window. :toast:

 

[barts185]

Seen a nice article the other day where road double digit dogs are hitting over 60% it said also they tend to do a little better the 2nd half of the year, please feel free to query.

Double digit dogs by season

line>=10 and site=away and season

ATS OU SU season
71-46-2 (0.8) 64-55-0 (2.2) 15-104 (-11.12) 2009
98-95-8 (-0.2) 98-98-5 (-0.7) 14-187 (-12.55) 2008
95-118-5 (-1.5) 99-113-6 (-2.1) 19-199 (-14.17) 2007
82-62-4 (0.8) 69-78-1 (-1.1) 25-123 (-10.99) 2006
74-65-2 (0.4) 70-69-2 (2.4) 17-124 (-11.31) 2005
88-82-4 (0.2) 83-87-4 (-1.5) 19-155 (-11.67) 2004
75-83-2 (-0.3) 83-74-3 (0.4) 16-144 (-11.90) 2003
72-75-1 (-0.1) 73-74-1 (-1.0) 16-132 (-12.39) 2002
84-75-4 (0.3) 76-84-3 (-0.5) 24-139 (-11.64) 2001
75-72-3 (-0.7) 77-70-3 (1.8) 12-138 (-12.53) 2000
81-78-1 (-0.5) 82-78-0 (-0.8) 12-148 (-12.57) 1999
58-45-6 (1.1) 57-51-1 (-0.5) 13-96 (-11.15) 1998
117-105-4 (0.1) 112-113-1 (0.0) 19-207 (-12.81) 1997
116-113-8 (-0.1) 110-123-4 (-0.7) 21-216 (-12.64) 1996
105-114-4 (-1.3) 106-113-4 (0.4) 20-203 (-13.87) 1995




Not sure what you define as the second half of the season since the allstar break is after the midway point.


Here's February and forward, doesn't seem to be that good to me, 2007 would have been a disaster.


line>=10 and site=away and (month=2 or month=3 or month=4 or month=5 or month=6) and season

ATS OU SU season
13-3-0 (4.6) 9-7-0 (0.7) 3-13 (-7.12) 2009
39-44-6 (-1.0) 33-55-1 (-4.5) 5-84 (-13.51) 2008
54-70-3 (-1.5) 63-62-2 (-1.0) 11-116 (-14.65) 2007
43-35-2 (0.6) 37-42-1 (-2.0) 11-69 (-11.25) 2006
36-39-1 (-0.6) 42-34-0 (3.9) 4-72 (-12.36) 2005
38-37-2 (-0.2) 39-35-3 (-0.0) 8-69 (-11.95) 2004
36-47-0 (-0.9) 44-38-1 (0.2) 7-76 (-12.52) 2003
35-34-0 (-0.2) 40-29-0 (1.7) 6-63 (-12.35) 2002
34-35-1 (0.2) 34-33-3 (0.7) 11-59 (-11.91) 2001
40-37-0 (-0.9) 36-41-0 (2.0) 4-73 (-12.78) 2000
39-40-1 (-0.5) 42-38-0 (-0.8) 5-75 (-12.75) 1999
58-45-6 (1.1) 57-51-1 (-0.5) 13-96 (-11.15) 1998
57-51-1 (0.3) 48-60-1 (-1.8) 8-101 (-12.88) 1997
63-58-3 (0.4) 63-59-2 (0.4) 14-110 (-12.44) 1996
57-69-1 (-1.8) 61-63-3 (0.5) 12-115 (-14.43) 1995

In case it meant regular season only.
February and forward, regular season only.
line>=10 and site=away and (month=2 or month=3 or month=4 or month=5 or month=6) and playoffs=0 and season

ATS OU SU season
13-3-0 (4.6) 9-7-0 (0.7) 3-13 (-7.12) 2009
36-35-6 (-0.2) 28-48-1 (-5.1) 5-72 (-12.84) 2008
54-65-3 (-1.2) 61-59-2 (-0.8) 11-111 (-14.29) 2007
39-34-2 (0.3) 35-39-1 (-1.7) 10-65 (-11.64) 2006
32-36-1 (-0.3) 37-32-0 (2.9) 3-66 (-12.19) 2005
37-34-2 (-0.0) 36-34-3 (-0.2) 8-65 (-11.85) 2004
33-38-0 (-0.7) 36-34-1 (0.0) 6-65 (-12.44) 2003
33-34-0 (-0.5) 39-28-0 (1.5) 5-62 (-12.69) 2002
34-35-1 (0.2) 34-33-3 (0.7) 11-59 (-11.91) 2001
40-37-0 (-0.9) 36-41-0 (2.0) 4-73 (-12.78) 2000
39-40-1 (-0.5) 42-38-0 (-0.8) 5-75 (-12.75) 1999
58-45-6 (1.1) 57-51-1 (-0.5) 13-96 (-11.15) 1998
57-51-1 (0.3) 48-60-1 (-1.8) 8-101 (-12.88) 1997
63-58-3 (0.4) 63-59-2 (0.4) 14-110 (-12.44) 1996
57-69-1 (-1.8) 61-63-3 (0.5) 12-115 (-14.43) 1995

 

[barts185]

Am I the only one who thinks that NOR still is slowing things down at home against high scoring teams?

 

[BillyBatts]

Added plays

Added plays

Adding

Hawks -3

Really like the under here as well


Might add one more out of these
Rockets
Suns over
and also Lakers under is a lean now

 

[Jig-Jag]

I like a few tonight, the Knicks is one of them. They have a very good chance tonight to snap their 8 game losing streak tonight at Washington. Pretty decent core the Knicks have if it gels together, David Lee is a monster and perimeter shooting shouldn't be a problem with Rod. House, Duhon. The over is a decent play too, considering the Knicks are giving up 111 points a game through this rough patch.

Leaning Over and Knicks

 

[40seven]

It seems to me that

It seems to me that

Every season has its angle and edge.

For years Unders were easier to pick, this year the teams getting points have an edge.

I have been watching that reality this year, it is an edge not a rule. But it has a definite tendency.

I almost used the word pattern, but I like edge.