NBA FRI 032009 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

First one I'm going to throw out there for a number that may be 'off' just a bit. Looking at minimum value for this since this is a hook off my buy-in number

Charlotte at Toronto U196

This is slowly getting money on the over and I think we might be able to wait and get a good number. It's a good start for a Friday.

 

[axp59]

Locked in

Memphis at New Orleans U188 for 1/2U. Will likely buy the rest when I finish capping this. This number is way off with the high side of a 3 possession cushion.

[812] TOTAL u188-110
(MEMPHIS vrs NEW ORLEANS)

 

[PickNPop]

* Over is 9-1 in TOR last 10 overall. :scared

The MEM/NO U188 looks good though. They can't buy a bucket lately.

 

[axp59]

That's it for now PnP...You know I only play one a day anyway and I'm locked in so unless I see something that forces me to buy my bet back and go with another, this may be it. The books look like they have good numbers for the rest of the lines published.

 

[axp59]

* Over is 9-1 in TOR last 10 overall. :scared

Exactly the reason why I expect it to go up.

 

[CoFred]

Hey Ax, I saw that you guys were talking about IWM888 over there and I wanted to tell you that I've been following him/her for about 6 months and he/she is an amazing capper. I initially found him/her in the soccer forums and they are great at soccer but I quickly realized that they can cap NBA just as well. The only problem is sometimes he/she doesn't post for a while or posts very little.

 

[axp59]

Hey Ax, I saw that you guys were talking about IWM888 over there and I wanted to tell you that I've been following him/her for about 6 months and he/she is an amazing capper. I initially found him/her in the soccer forums and they are great at soccer but I quickly realized that they can cap NBA just as well. The only problem is sometimes he/she doesn't post for a while or posts very little.

Yeah, that's why I really don't know 'her' but just read her post in the Box and she's got a mouth on her. LOL I call IWM888, the "mysterious capper"

but damn she's good, you think she can catch me? :mj23:

 

[CoFred]

Well she's got a higher % but a lot less plays. I wonder what her bankroll is like. She won't catch you in amount of wins above .500 but I wonder if her % would fall below yours after the same amount of games. %'s always seem to regress towards the mean.

 

[axp59]

I agree, as the sample nears the population, regression is inevitable particularly when the sample's success rate is so far off the mean. I think I've almost played 3x more...at least twice as much. But i cannot discount her success.

 

[axp59]

Core, you got a thought about the 2nd play? The one I locked in?

 

[CoFred]

Oh of course, as she and I both wouldn't discount yours. I really wish Bodog posted lines earlier so I could jump on the New Orleans line for tomorrow. They don't post totals until 11 or 11:30 on gameday.

 

[axp59]

Time to get another book. I'm not a big fan of Bodog to begin with.

 

[CoFred]

Yea I want to switch to either 5dimes or Bookmaker but I want to build up my bankroll a tad more on here so I can just withdraw everything at one time. It sounds stupid I know, but I don't want to withdraw less than I had in my account when I withrdrew last time.

 

[CoFred]

Hey Ax, what do you think about this game? You think it has a chance to stay under? I'm watching it and :shrug:

 

[axp59]

I think it will be close but we're good.

 

[grindstone]

Hey AX congrats on the under ATL/DALL game, I also had Atl- 5 and come in. Thanks again Bro your awesome will take a week off, will be in Virg on vacation but might have to check in once in a while. Will play that under Mem/NO thanks again for all your hard work

:00hour :toast: :jump: :spotting:

 

[axp59]

Hey AX congrats on the under ATL/DALL game, I also had Atl- 5 and come in. Thanks again Bro your awesome will take a week off, will be in Virg on vacation but might have to check in once in a while. Will play that under Mem/NO thanks again for all your hard work

:00hour :toast: :jump: :spotting:

You're crazy you know that! Don't check in on vacation man. Can you please tell the SEAL that a Jarhead is killing the books?

 

[CoFred]

Ax, did you say you had the over in the LA/GS game?

 

[grindstone]

You're crazy you know that! Don't check in on vacation man. Can you please tell the SEAL that a Jarhead is killing the books?

Your awesome man. GL luck with the rest of the week

:toast: :00hour

 

[easterntimezone]

Wow, didn't realize that a big game for Roy would involve 15 points by 3 minutes gone in the 4th although a 6 point deficit isn't insurmountable...

Raptors line of - 1 as a side looks suspect - they've had since Monday to stew over their 112-86 beatdown; this strangely looks similar to when the Raptors went to New York, got blindsided and came back 2 days later to wax the Knicks... The cliched phrase of forgetting a bad loss b/c there's a next game doesn't really hold any weight here b/c of the 4 day layoff. Would anticipate that public jumps on the Bobcats as an 'easy' cover given their lopsided victory over the Raptors on Monday as well as another win going away versus Sacramento in b/w. Pride is the paramount consideration in this case concerning Toronto; as badly as they've tripped over themselves this season, do they have enough pride in themselves as paid professionals to even out payback?

Will take a look at the other lines for both sides and totals shortly.