NBA FRI 032709 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[jlippens]

I'm really concerned with the Knicks defense of late as well. They've completely packed it in. I'd take the side (Hornets) before anything, and even though the Hornets play slow and shorthanded, I still don't like the Under here.

I do like the Bobcats U though.

 

[jlippens]

the refs scare the crap out of me for Charlotte at Philadelphia

The refs are something that I've never considered for hoops. Are you able to look at the matchups they've officiated--do they have a wide spread of teams? If refs usually stay to regions, it might skew predicted results in certain matchups.

I'm guessing you can look at average whistles per game? That might be a slightly better predictor than their o/u record.

 

[Ools]

the refs scare the crap out of me for Charlotte at Philadelphia

Was actually just looking at the NY refs and thought not too bad

 

[cubboy]

ax

ax

thats the only thing holding me back is the officials.gonna check a few more #s..

 

[Ools]

Illininbill is 2 unit under for philly and 1 unit for ov lakers

 

[cubboy]

foster is real ?????????????

 

[cubboy]

ALL 3 REFS AVREAGE GAME TOTALS ARE OVER 200

 

[axp59]

[856] TOTAL u188-110
(CHARLOTTE vrs PHILADELPHIA)

BOLTA

my only play tonight full 1U

 

[axp59]

Was actually just looking at the NY refs and thought not too bad

That's a good unders crew for NOH/NYK

 

[Flippa2HeadCoin]

Since you had a great time with Mr. Daniels,
I'd like to introduce you to Mr. Patron.
...Anejo Patron


char/phi = 189, 188
59%
41%

milw/orl = 198, 198
55%
45%

okl/tpr = 202, 201
69%
31%

minn/cavs = 190, 190.5
36%
64%

lal/nj = 205.5, 205.5
65%
35%

no/ny = 207, 205.5
72%
28%

bos/atl = 183, 184.5
52%
48%

lac/sas = 191, 192.5
57%
43%

den/dall = 208, 205.5
81%
19%

mem/sac = 206, 208
82%
18%

:dizzy:

 

[axp59]

The refs are something that I've never considered for hoops. Are you able to look at the matchups they've officiated--do they have a wide spread of teams? If refs usually stay to regions, it might skew predicted results in certain matchups.

I'm guessing you can look at average whistles per game? That might be a slightly better predictor than their o/u record.

I'm going to disregard the offs in this one jlipp. Since they rotate, can't really be too sure but I make it a point to look.

 

[Flippa2HeadCoin]

[856] TOTAL u188-110
(CHARLOTTE vrs PHILADELPHIA)

BOLTA

my only play tonight full 1U

Looks like we gotz a winner, already.

 

[cubboy]

when the tot is 185-194.5 foster is 9-5 poole is 7-9 wright is 7-4

 

[axp59]

Since you had a great time with Mr. Daniels,
I'd like to introduce you to Mr. Patron.
...Anejo Patron


char/phi = 189, 188
59%
41%

milw/orl = 198, 198
55%
45%

okl/tpr = 202, 201
69%
31%

minn/cavs = 190, 190.5
36%
64%

lal/nj = 205.5, 205.5
65%
35%

no/ny = 207, 205.5
72%
28%

bos/atl = 183, 184.5
52%
48%

lac/sas = 191, 192.5
57%
43%

den/dall = 208, 205.5
81%
19%

mem/sac = 206, 208
82%
18%

:dizzy:

Thanks Flippa...there are some weird numbers there. den/dal 82%O and number dropped 2.5

same story with NOH/NYK

ok, well i think i like my play here. GL. Flippa. Thank you

 

[axp59]

I wonder what my waitress thinks...damn, i usually fade her on FRI

 

[Ools]

my nba card:

philly und 188 - 2 units
dal -4 - 2 units
Clev -4.5 1q - 2 units
Char +5 - 1 units
lakers ov 205.5 - 1 unit

 

[mpnyc76]

what do you think about mavs over and sac over?

 

[axp59]

FWIW

leans over
OKC
LAL
LAC

leans under
CHA
BOS
MIN
NOH

rest is a toss up...

GL guys...off to dinner with the family

 

[cubboy]

good luck fellas..

 

[Crockie]

Hmmmm the line movement @ Dallas-Denver & New York-New Orleans looks scary...