NBA FRI 042409 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[axp59]

We're up BIG and now need to worry about regression.

Here's one that should require no thought whatsoever.

NBA [513] CLE GM3 -4?-110

This is a 1 vs 8 series. Let's not forget that. These two played in the same division and are 27 games apart. 27 games and the books are asking me to lay 4.5? I'll bite.

BOLTA

 

[easterntimezone]

Ax -

Wondering if it couldn't be out the realm of possibility that Detroit takes this game out of sheer pride, lays down for the next game @ home and is booted out of the playoffs when the series returns to Cleveland?

Finding this game a hard read only b/c Cleveland has punished Detroit psychologically in each "big" contest this season and in the playoffs so far - this is the last go 'round for the Pistons as configured (Wallace unlikely to return and likelihood of Hamilton traded is present) - there are no moral victories in ultimately losing a series, but for a once proud franchise, to be bested by a Midwestern rival w/o putting up a vestige of a fight is somewhat anathema to what Detroit used to represent.

Detroit pride (if it still exists) and LeBron's focus on finishing this series early is what methinks tomorrow boils down to...

 

[axp59]

ETZ, I think DET sees the writing on the wall and don't have a say in the matter. CLE is out on a mission. Don't let memories cloud the reality before you ETZ. This reminds me of those losing years when I first started all this. I recall thinking my beloved C's still had that run in them during Bird's latter years. They had too much pride and the history! Well, sometimes it's not pretty but teams die. I think we see DET gasping their last breath. Of course I could be totally off. LOL...I always say we're all guessing. BOL on your action ETZ.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

What you think about the Magic -3.5??

Could it be similar as with the Bulls? ("Beat the big fav away and now they have the pressure @ home")

 

[easterntimezone]

I think DET sees the writing on the wall and don't have a say in the matter. CLE is out on a mission. Don't let memories cloud the reality before you ETZ. This reminds me of those losing years when I first started all this. I recall thinking my beloved C's still had that run in them during Bird's latter years. They had too much pride and the history! Well, sometimes it's not pretty but teams die. I think we see DET gasping their last breath. Of course I could be totally off. LOL...I always say we're all guessing.

Ax -

Thanks for the feedback - definitely subscribe to Cleveland taking the series w/o question; just unsure as to whether or not it's in 4 (comfortably covering the side in each) or 5 is all - as much as the Cavaliers have stomped over the Pistons like a flimsy pylon, guess somewhat wary that one of these two Detroit home games may be where the Pistons don't win, but cover the spread.

If you've already locked it in, Ax - best of luck as always - may turn my attention elsewhere on the board (or may sit out altogether and continue to monitor MLB tomorrow)...

 

[axp59]

Tough call on ORL but that's my lean if I had to take a side. The trends point to an ORL cover but the stats analyses are showing different signals. Maybe the board can give me a new number by tipoff.

BOL

 

[Eagle123]

BOL on CLE -4.5 AX

 

[t20boss]

Nice pick w/the Cavs, pal. Couldn't agree more. :0corn Hope to get back in the discussions soon - have a daughter getting married this weekend, so been a bit busy. But already loving the bases...

 

[axp59]

BOL on CLE -4.5 AX

Let's get 'em Eagle. BOL to you also.

 

[axp59]

Nice pick w/the Cavs, pal. Couldn't agree more. :0corn Hope to get back in the discussions soon - have a daughter getting married this weekend, so been a bit busy. But already loving the bases...

Thanks boss and congratulations. My very best wishes goes out to your daughter and your new son-in-law. BOL with your action sir.

 

[Slicer]

Accuscore 11am Update-

NBA Playoff Record:

Sides: 7-11-1
Totals: 12-6-1

Tonight:

Clev 6.5 and 174.5
Hous 6.2 and 181.2
Orl 5.0 and 187.6

Trend Spot Plays: Unders of 3.0-3.9 variance are 25-31-2 (Plays that qualify currently are Clev @ 178, Hous @ 184.5, Orl @ 191)

Variance falls to 2.0-2.9 range are 33-27
Variance increase to 4.0-4.9 are 24-19-1

I'm on Clev and Orlando tonight, BOL to all.

 

[Griffin8s]

Goodday to everyone. Just a quick thought for you. Cavs want to beat Pistons by as many points as possible everytime they play. Can I see the Piston's taking 1 of these home games, of course I can. Do I see them taking this home game, No Way in this world. Cavs will want to lock at the very least this game so they know they can leave Det. either 4-0 or 3-1. Now you have to think does the Q and the NBA want to see game 5 of course they do, it's called GREED! Hope this is not a factor for us tonight but watch out for it in Game 4. GL as always.

 

[axp59]

Always good to hear the homer insight Gunny. Seriously, after watching the first 2 games, even if you don't play CLE, can you really put your hard earned cash on DET? It's CLE or no play IMHO. BOL

 

[Griffin8s]

Always good to hear the homer insight Gunny. Seriously, after watching the first 2 games, even if you don't play CLE, can you really put your hard earned cash on DET? It's CLE or no play IMHO. BOL

Man you read my mind I was even going to type how could you lay hard earned cash on Det.:mj07: Good luck to you Bro been having a tough week thats why haven't been around.

 

[axp59]

Man you read my mind I was even going to type how could you lay hard earned cash on Det.:mj07: Good luck to you Bro been having a tough week thats why haven't been around.

I hope everything is ok brother. If it's betting related then we'll get it back. If it's life related, I wish you well.

 

[LFTNUT]

AX, LIKE THE CLEV PICK!! I'M LOOKING AT HOUTON AND OVER. ANY COMMENTS? THAKS AND BOL

 

[rragga2727]

clev-5
hou-6
liking phl not enough to put it out there.
gl everyone

 

[Slicer]

Ax, I'm gunning for you in the MLB Contest :Kid1:

 

[axp59]

AX, LIKE THE CLEV PICK!! I'M LOOKING AT HOUTON AND OVER. ANY COMMENTS? THAKS AND BOL

Not liking the HOU game on either number but I'd lean HOU and the U if I had to take sides. No play for me.

BOL

 

[axp59]

Ax, I'm gunning for you in the MLB Contest :Kid1:

You already got me Slice. I'm showing a profit but the others have huge numbers. Steady income.