NBA FRI 11-6-09 early thoughts - value hunting
- Thread starter Joe_Vienna
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- Mar 18, 2009
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Ax, I've seen you post this a couple times and talk about how much value out of 10,000 there is. Can you explain how you calculate this number?
Ax - where are u getting your lines?
My book has number way off from yours.
det/orl o/u 191.5 (not 194.5)
den/mia o/u201 (not 205.5)
noh -5 (not 4)
lac/gs 0/u215 (not 218)
My book has number way off from yours.
det/orl o/u 191.5 (not 194.5)
den/mia o/u201 (not 205.5)
noh -5 (not 4)
lac/gs 0/u215 (not 218)
CoFred, I am pressed for time but this is take from my post across the street "that was quick" date 082009.
It refers to the HOU/POR game 102709
Value calculations however is strictly based on current $$$ lines and the probabilty of an outcome occuring. Unfortunately, I have not the time to explain value caculations but there are vast resources on the net to explain it mathematically.
The basis is the current money line for a proposition. Most of the time this is -110. The other factor is the probability of that occurance coming to fruition. Plug those numbers into a formula and you will find your value.
Let's take that HOU +430 as an example. If HOU and POR played this game 100 times, I think HOU 'could' win 32 of those games. Winning only 32 times @ +430 would still give us a profit of $69 if we bet $100 for each game. Now look at this from the POR side at -470. Win 60% of the games and you still end up losing money.
hope this helps. It's easier to calculate with point spreads since both side are juiced at -110
All you need now is to figure out what the chances (in %) that each side will cover the spread. if one is 60% the other is NOT necessarilly 40%. If the line is even (without the hook), there is a chance that it falls right on the number.
BOL
- Mar 18, 2009
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You're looking at lines now that the West coast has acted upon earlier numbers..............they have changes and may continue to do so throughout the day.
The LAC/GS is an OVER play so that one has moved in your favour.
GLTU
I just checked my original post and the time stamp was 11xx am. Those were the current lines at the time I locked the plays. It looks like I missed out on the better number for the lac/gs play since i playe thed over @ 218 not the current 215.
Yes, this looks more accurate after some line moves.
Comp, do you have options to shop for numbers?
The hook (falling to even) will only increase the chance of it falling right on the number and not necessarily shift value from one side to the other. Going to 7.5 is another sotry and WILL increase the value.
BOL sir.
- FT -
Thank you for your plug on your thread. Much appreciated. BOL and continued success with your HT plays.
I wish I did. After licking my wounds from Was/Clev the other day, I'm tailing you (my assumption of risk entirely) on NO and LAC/GS over. I probably shouldn't but I'm too busy today for my own analysis, and I'm just interested in some action this evening. BOL
I'm sorry to hear that bro. The 2 plays you've made has positive risk/benefit ratios. No guarantees they or any plays cover but the benifits outway the risk. I wish you the very best and hope to cash these tickets with you.
- Mar 22, 2009
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My book has a 3 pt drop on DET/ORL 191.5, and a 4 pt drop on DEN/MIA 201.5.
Does this make these games over plays, or has the total moved closer to the actual combined score we are more likely to see?
Basically I am asking, since the value of the under is killed this does not mean there has been an appreciateble increase in value on the over.
Does this make these games over plays, or has the total moved closer to the actual combined score we are more likely to see?
Basically I am asking, since the value of the under is killed this does not mean there has been an appreciateble increase in value on the over.
The number which represent only public perception has no conection to the actual total outcome.
The under value isn't necessarily killed but it does diminish signinificantly and in turn increases the value on the over.
Take last night's CHI/CLE total. That was enough movement to go under with the play. It was an attractive O @ 187ish but in the 190ish, the value shifted to an Under play. This is not the case with every line move.
IMHO DEN/MIA is no value on either side of the total @ 201.5
It's your call on the other game. but I still wouldn't bet the over on it.
hope that helps
Guys no time today
Guys no time today
But Great Call on Utah last night.
I was so wrong way to go
Best to all, it is not luck you guys work hard
Guys no time today
But Great Call on Utah last night.
I was so wrong way to go
Best to all, it is not luck you guys work hard
Can you be more specifc about the Friday night lights factor because I'm not seeing any advantage and figure I must be missing something.
ATS numbers since 2006
Home favorites of 2 or less 17-19 (last season 9-8-0)
Home dogs of 2 or less 23-27-3 (last season 8-12-2)
Thanks,
Bart
