NBA FRI 121109 early thoughts - value hunting

[Ools]

Looking at ov Phl/Hou -- houston on streak of 6 straight unders and philly 2 straight. Line opened at 196 and quickly down to 194.5...just see the trend being bought into here.

also lean to Philly for game -- 3rd straight home game, 1st 2 loses with no covers...before that they covered 6 of last 8 on this losing streak...I'll take them here vs Houston team that will have 5 of last 6 games on road.

 

[Slicer]

I'll jump in tomorrow on NBA.

THERE WILL BE NO GEM OF THE DAY FRIDAY IN NCAA, nothing on the docket, so I'll start the week on Saturday.

 

[PJ12]

I'll jump in tomorrow on NBA.

THERE WILL BE NO GEM OF THE DAY FRIDAY IN NCAA, nothing on the docket, so I'll start the week on Saturday.

Under 129 in Cyclone game may be worth a look, jus sayin :toast:
Good stuff here tnks
GL

 

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

OOls-- I agree totally with your take on the Sixers total and side. That small line reminds me of Denver at Charlotte a few days ago, trap sort of line.

Also looking at
Pacers -3.5 (possible POD)
Bulls over 213.5
Blazers +9
Knicks +6.5
Bobs-Spurs under 186.5 (really like this one also)

Be back later to hopefully share some info :director:

 

[BillyBatts]

P.S

P.S

P.S--


Nice call on the NFL last night Frogger. :00hour

I mentioned some one else's name accidentally in the post I made last night on why I was taking the Browns. Hope we all stay hot here and have another winning nite, tonight. :box2:

 

[barts185]

Lean / wagers

Way too much interest on my part, need to cut this list down a lot.



Already bet CLE -3 first quarter.

Lean on CLE for the game.


Having to play CLE at home after they lost the last game (never mind the last 2) has not been a boon for the other team's W/L record.

The last 3 times they were at home after having lost 2
Beat PHO 109-92 as 9 point favorites.
Beat SAS 101-81 as 6 point favorites.
Beat ORL 112-102 as 7.5 point favorites.

This year the only game they've played at home after a loss was against DAL. 111-95 as 7 point favorites.

Other games of interest

NJN but was hoping money would come in on Indiana, which doesn't seem to be happening.

ATL - TOR horrible as a home team vs. winning teams but tight margin, some movement towards TOR, would definitely lay 2.5, maybe 3.

lean DAL, only really interested at +3, which isn't going to happen.

lean NOR, not sure about laying this many, although they have been good at same season revenge when playing at home.

Lean NYK/NOR under but did my analysis too late to get the good number, hate betting after a 3 (or more) point move.

Lean GSW/CHI under

Lean OKC +2

Lean CHA +7.5 and CHA/SAS over 188

Lean ORL/PHO under 214.5

 

[mikeyyy]

General Thanks

General Thanks

hey all, i started out rough with NBA tailing some losing picks in the beginning of the season, but heck, that's how it goes with gambling.

Anyway, of late, I've followed too many names to mention like Billy, Rander, and AX, and the recent tails have been pretty sweet :tongue

So I just wanted to make a general shout out of thanks for the hard work to those ...please keep up the good work for those who don't know how to cap basketball...I hope it's good positive energy for you guys who are helping those who are just piggy backing - thanks again!!

 

[BillyBatts]

You're welcome

You're welcome

hey all, i started out rough with NBA tailing some losing picks in the beginning of the season, but heck, that's how it goes with gambling.

Anyway, of late, I've followed too many names to mention like Billy, Rander, and AX, and the recent tails have been pretty sweet :tongue

So I just wanted to make a general shout out of thanks for the hard work to those ...please keep up the good work for those who don't know how to cap basketball...I hope it's good positive energy for you guys who are helping those who are just piggy backing - thanks again!!

Mikey, glad you've been doing well, it's always nice to hear that our work is being appreciated, especially from the guys such as yourself who masy not post, but check the thread on a regular basis.:00x15 Anytime you feel you may have something to offer, feel free to chime in. The more infor from all of us, the better this thread becomes. Continued success to yourself, and to us. :toast:

Bart--Looks like we're oppo on alot of our leans today :scared
I appreciate the trends on the Cavs, and will stay away from Portland for that reason.
But one that really makes me scratch my head is the Spurs-Bons over? I really like the under, the Bobs really have problems scoring on the road. And also, if you could give your thoughts on your Nets lean, I'd appreciate it. I know the Pacers are without Granger, but it is Friday night, which usually helps the Home teams that are small dogs or laying 4 or less points. :0corn

Really looking at the Bulls- GSW over 213.5
The Bulls have pretty much given up on thier coach, and it shows in thier defense. They have allowed 99 or more points in 9 out of the last 10 games. :scared That includes the other night to the Nets, and the only team that didn't score 99 or more against was vs Detroit at Chicago.

The Warriors Avg 105 points on the road, and there have been only 3 games this year so far with a Warriors game with a total this low.,
@ SA over 213.5
Vs Por (with Oden) u 207
@ Bos (one of the top def's) u 211
all 3 of these games were on a long road trip and thier 1st home game back, where they played 6 games in 8 days, and right around the time of the trade.

I see Golden St scoring in the 115 range, and see the young Bulls, on a Fri Night at home, to continue to lack defense and look to run.

 

[barts185]

Mikey, glad you've been doing well, it's always nice to hear that our work is being appreciated, especially from the guys such as yourself who masy not post, but check the thread on a regular basis.:00x15 Anytime you feel you may have something to offer, feel free to chime in. The more infor from all of us, the better this thread becomes. Continued success to yourself, and to us. :toast:

Bart--Looks like we're oppo on alot of our leans today :scared
I appreciate the trends on the Cavs, and will stay away from Portland for that reason.
But one that really makes me scratch my head is the Spurs-Bons over? I really like the under, the Bobs really have problems scoring on the road. And also, if you could give your thoughts on your Nets lean, I'd appreciate it. I know the Pacers are without Granger, but it is Friday night, which usually helps the Home teams that are small dogs or laying 4 or less points. :0corn

Really looking at the Bulls- GSW over 213.5
The Bulls have pretty much given up on thier coach, and it shows in thier defense. They have allowed 99 or more points in 9 out of the last 10 games. :scared That includes the other night to the Nets, and the only team that didn't score 99 or more against was vs Detroit at Chicago.

The Warriors Avg 105 points on the road, and there have been only 3 games this year so far with a Warriors game with a total this low.,
@ SA over 213.5
Vs Por (with Oden) u 207
@ Bos (one of the top def's) u 211
all 3 of these games were on a long road trip and thier 1st home game back, where they played 6 games in 8 days, and right around the time of the trade.

I see Golden St scoring in the 115 range, and see the young Bulls, on a Fri Night at home, to continue to lack defense and look to run.

Going down the list

CHA/SAS over - this actually is from someone who has been doing well, I didn't have an opinion on the game, but figured it was worth throwing out there to see what others thought. Sorry I don't have any better reasoning. I will say this, the average number of points scored in CHA road games this year is 174.8 (CHA has scored 83.2) in SAS home games 202.1 (SAS has scored 104.8) 104.8+83.2=188.0, pretty close to the total out there. Not saying this is the best way to come up with a total, but it's one way to explain the total that is out there.


NJ - just has to do with power ratings and that I think NJ has been playing better. I wanted a minimum of 5, and it would have been a small play, so it's a pass. Also, and I thought I went over this a couple of weeks ago (or maybe not, fuzzy on this), there does not seem to be any Friday night advantage to small home favorites, if anything it favors the road team

day= Friday and site=home and 0>line>-4 and season

ATS OU SU season
4-6-0 (-6.2) 6-3-1 (2.3) 4-6 (-3.70) 2009
17-19-0 (-2.0) 22-14-0 (1.0) 19-17 (0.42) 2008
15-22-1 (-3.8) 18-20-0 (-3.1) 19-19 (-1.21) 2007
22-19-0 (-0.4) 21-20-0 (-0.2) 24-17 (2.34) 2006
18-19-1 (0.4) 12-26-0 (-7.6) 21-17 (2.87) 2005
17-26-1 (-2.9) 24-20-0 (8.3) 19-25 (-0.39) 2004
25-22-0 (1.7) 25-22-0 (3.5) 28-19 (4.04) 2003
18-25-0 (-4.8) 27-15-1 (5.5) 19-24 (-2.37) 2002
17-20-0 (-2.7) 15-22-0 (-3.8) 18-19 (-0.30) 2001
8-20-0 (-5.0) 13-15-0 (-2.5) 10-18 (-2.46) 2000
21-13-0 (-0.5) 16-17-1 (-1.3) 21-13 (2.09) 1999
8-12-0 (-2.4) 7-13-0 (-3.9) 11-9 (0.00) 1998
23-18-1 (0.7) 16-24-2 (0.5) 26-16 (3.14) 1997
13-19-0 (-1.3) 18-14-0 (3.6) 15-17 (1.12) 1996
10-13-0 (-2.9) 14-9-0 (6.2) 11-12 (-0.30) 1995

So, over the course of the whole database, Friday night home favorites of 4 points or less are 236-273-4

Since 2005, 76-85-2

Since 2007, 36-47-1

Take Care,
Bart

 

[BillyBatts]

Thank as always for the Info, Bart.

Good luck tonight:00x1


Just locked these in. May have one more later but afraid these were going the wrong way so want to get the best number

Bulls over 213.5 for reasons stated above
Knicks +6.5

Not only has NY cover 4 out of the last 5, but theyve also won outright 4 outta 5 and think have turned the corner on thier season. It's not like those wins have come against easy competition either, beating the Suns, Hawks, and Blazers.
The Hornets have won 3 in a row, since Paul has been back, but have failed to cover in all 3, which I believe is the case tonight, is that the line is a little inflated since his return.
The Knicks are the more rested team, and have won the last 3 outright in this matchup. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Knicks win outright, and will gladly take the 6.5 :director:

 

[axp59]

So I just wanted to make a general shout out of thanks for the hard work to those ...please keep up the good work for those who don't know how to cap basketball...I hope it's good positive energy for you guys who are helping those who are just piggy backing - thanks again!!

Awesome Man. These guys on this thread are not only great cappers but also real class acts. :toast:

 

[granpa]

Really looking at the Bulls- GSW over 213.5
I see Golden St scoring in the 115 range, and see the young Bulls, on a Fri Night at home, to continue to lack defense and look to run.

I'm thinking under on this game. Chi has only hit the century mark once in their L10. I agree GS can put up points in bunches, but Chi has not been running so FG attempts are down & they know their offense can not keep up with GS style, so they have to slow the tempo. This looks just like NJ/GS Wed which fell well below the 218 line. Chi plays as though they've written off the season already and with Gordon gone they have no play makers. I don't see this one hitting 200, but GL since you've locked it in.

Granpa

 

[granpa]

Awesome Man. These guys on this thread are not only great cappers but also real class acts. :toast:

I second that motion!! :mj06:

 

[frogster]

BillyBats, glad it worked out for you in the Thursday night NFL. It's all aboaut contributing, that is the only thing that we have that Vegas does not, each other and the information that we contribute. I can't help you guys out on the NBA, as for NFL and NCAA football I can. I am working on the Bowl games now and will post when I am done in the NCAA forum. I will make sure you all know. GL and keep it up.

 

[jer6969]

thanks so much frogster

 

[ChumpChange]

One play so far for tonight ... Philly / Houston under 194.5 ... looks like my POD ... perhaps more plays later

good luck everyone

 

[granpa]

Atl/Tor Over

Atl/Tor Over

No one's biting on Atl/Tor O considering the line is lower than their last meeting and they put 261 in that one? Honestly it looks like a trap considering the outcome of their last meeting but the line is lower? 51 pts at the line in that one and both shot over 50% from the field. Anyone see a reason why Atl won't try to run Tor out of their own building?

 

[ChumpChange]

No one's biting on Atl/Tor O considering the line is lower than their last meeting and they put 261 in that one? Honestly it looks like a trap considering the outcome of their last meeting but the line is lower? 51 pts at the line in that one and both shot over 50% from the field. Anyone see a reason why Atl won't try to run Tor out of their own building?

Atlanta / Toro under 209.5 will "probably" be my second play for tonight ... my number crunching and analyzation puts the total at 205 ...

good luck with whatever you decide to do

 

[granpa]

Atlanta / Toro under 209.5 will "probably" be my second play for tonight ... my number crunching and analyzation puts the total at 205 ...

good luck with whatever you decide to do

Not laying anything on this since Tor has been completely unpredictable as of late. GL if you ride with it.

 

[pmdanne]

I'm thinking under on this game. Chi has only hit the century mark once in their L10. I agree GS can put up points in bunches, but Chi has not been running so FG attempts are down & they know their offense can not keep up with GS style, so they have to slow the tempo. This looks just like NJ/GS Wed which fell well below the 218 line. Chi plays as though they've written off the season already and with Gordon gone they have no play makers. I don't see this one hitting 200, but GL since you've locked it in.

Granpa

Grandpa, agree with your assessment of this game. I have this game capped at about 205. Also I'd like to add that the referees for this game are C. Blair and K Mauer who are a combined 9-22 o/u and 1-10 o/u when the line is set above 205.