NBA FRI 121109 early thoughts - value hunting

[barts185]

Grandpa, agree with your assessment of this game. I have this game capped at about 205. Also I'd like to add that the referees for this game are C. Blair and K Mauer who are a combined 9-22 o/u and 1-10 o/u when the line is set above 205.

Are the ref stats something you track yourself, or are they available somewhere?

 

[barts185]

Found something else and made me take the under in the NYK/NOR game even after the line move.

When at home, NOR really tries to slow the pace down against high scoring teams.

To keep it at an even number, at home against teams averaging 100 or more

team=Hornets and H and oA(points)>100 and season>=2008

O/U: 3-19-0 (-10.1) avg total: 200.8

this season
O/U: 0-4-0 (-13.1) avg total: 209.1


Moving it up so that NYK barely qualifies, teams averaging 103 ppg or more

since the start of 2008
O/U: 1-14-0 (-13.5) avg total: 204.3

this season
O/U: 0-4-0 (-13.1) avg total: 209.1


This was on top of the trends showing NOR slowing the pace down at home when playing with same season revenge.

team=Hornets and H and P:L and total>= 200 and season>=2008
O/U: 0-5-0 (-19.0) avg total: 209.0

Combining the 2, since the start of last year, when playing at home with same season revenge against teams averaging 103 ppg or more

O/U: 1-8-0 (-13.1) avg total: 202.7

So, even though I missed the good number, taking under 205.5

Good Luck,
Bart

 

[pmdanne]

Are the ref stats something you track yourself, or are they available somewhere?

You can find them across the street.

 

[granpa]

Grandpa, agree with your assessment of this game. I have this game capped at about 205. Also I'd like to add that the referees for this game are C. Blair and K Mauer who are a combined 9-22 o/u and 1-10 o/u when the line is set above 205.

Thanks for the add'l info PM. Since I have other obligations tonight I think I'm going to lay off today. Tomorrow's another day. :0corn

GLTA - G

 

[barts185]

You can find them across the street.

Thanks - knew they had the ref assignments, didn't realize they actually had stats like that, but I see it now. Would love to see it not just for home team, but team by team when they are home and away.


I guess I like the NYK/NOR game under even more now that I see the 3 refs are a combined 0-11 at 205 and higher.

 

[40seven]

Two play and one lean

Two play and one lean

OKC/Mem Over 200

Minny / LAL Over 200

Last lean and possible late add but...who knows

The Spurs -8!


Ax where are you buddy?

FYI i will not play heavy Fav's any more and I will not play Road Favs who are Heavy Fav's especially!!!

 

[BillyBatts]

Uh oh

Uh oh

Wow, you guys have me on my Bulls over wager. Oh well, it was placed a few hours ago, so in the hands of the Gambling Gods now. :mj09:

I know the Bulls haven't scored many points as of late, but Golden State doen't play lock down "D" or anything, so at home I see the Bulls allowing the Warriors to run, and getting alot of cheap baskets themselves. BOL tonight fellas whoever you go with. Won't be a 3rd play for me, but still really like the Spurs under 188. :violin:

 

[axp59]

Ax where are you buddy?

FYI i will not play heavy Fav's any more and I will not play Road Favs who are Heavy Fav's especially!!!

Bro, didn't you play the Dog I sent you last night?

 

[40seven]

You know i did

You know i did

Bro, didn't you play the Dog I sent you last night?

That was what i needed.

So where is the dog tonight

 

[JCWhy]

didn't have time to cap todays games Hoping there is a play or too in here for me :00hour

 

[JBrilman]

Looking at the following today

Miami - havent beaten the Mavs since there 2006 finals win. another interesting stat is Mavs are 1-10 ATS and SU in there last 11 road games sandwchiched by home games

NOH -6.5 and Under - reasoning for under is above in this thread, I havent solidified my play on the spread yet but just NOH in this spot

 

[easterntimezone]

That was what i needed.

So where is the dog tonight

Last lean and possible late add but...who knows

The Spurs -8!

:idea:

 

[40seven]

As i told Ax last night

As i told Ax last night

:idea:

I am dense

 

[axp59]

That was what i needed.

So where is the dog tonight

Got a three dogs I'm looking at Forty. I'm waiting on some info plus a possible line move on a 4th game. Still a few hours left. Hang tight.kurby

 

[axp59]

:idea:

LOL ETZ

 

[40seven]

IMHO

IMHO

The play of the day is Chump's second play.

AH TR Under!:

 

[easterntimezone]

I am dense

40 -

R-E-D -> font color change wasn't spontaneous...

 

[grindstone]

Got a three dogs I'm looking at Forty. I'm waiting on some info plus a possible line move on a 4th game. Still a few hours left. Hang tight.kurby

Hey AX how are u buddy crazy day today, will start to cap.

 

[40seven]

Thanks man

Thanks man

Got a three dogs I'm looking at Forty. I'm waiting on some info plus a possible line move on a 4th game. Still a few hours left. Hang tight.kurby

Going bowling with my son soon but BOLTA.

Funny i can pickup a little languages when I travel but smiley faces still stump me

 

[easterntimezone]

Ax -

E-mail if/when you get a chance... Thanks.