Last night: 1-1 (-10)
YTD: 4-1 (+390)
Broke about even last night, but I feel good about taking a positive step this evening. Here's what I've got so far:
MIN +2 : Lots of talk about the T-Mac/Hill combo and the 2-0 start for the Magic, but Timberwolves play very tough at home and even though the season just started Tuesday, Orlando will be playing its 3rd game of the year tonight already, and they are on the road. On defense, the Wolves play a nice zone, and Orlando has nothing up front - Nesterovic isn't going to frighten Shaq any time soon, but he, Loren Woods, and Mark Jackson should easily outplay Pat Burke (who?), Andrew DeClerq, and a fat Shawn Kemp. Hill and McGrady can score in bunches, but so can Garnett and Hudson (and maybe Wally if he plays). Minnesota was 29-12 SU at home last year with basically the same team, so I don't think they should be getting points against many teams in the league, including the Magic.
DEN +6.5 : Houston has a lot of potential, but they shouldn't be favored by 6.5 points on the road against anybody right now. The 82 points they scored against the Pacers the other night breaks down like this: Francis - 39, Mobley - 22, rest of team - 21 points. That's not the way to win on the road, but with the Rockets' injury woes, and with Yao just not there yet, they don't have a lot of other options. In their first meeting in Denver last year (with Francis and Mobley in the lineup), the Nuggets whipped the Rockets 108-81. Denver is bad, but they should play tough in their home opener, just as they did Wednesday night in their season opener at Minnesota (see above for MIN record at home) where they fell by only 6 points. When Houston gets healthy, and Ming figures out the NBA game, watch out for the Rockets. But, for now, take advantage of their problems and go against them.
NO -3 : I am extremely disappointed to see this line today. I had really planned on making a lot of early season $$$ betting FOR an undervalued Bulls team that has made some real improvements since this time last year: Jalen and Donyell are great additions, Eddie Robinson is healthy, Jay Williams drafted (13 pts, 7 assists, 7 rebounds in his debut - Yao Ming would have loved to have missed some free throws and still end up with that stat line), Crawford, Hassell, Fizer and Chandler coming off the bench, etc. But, because of the Boston win, this team is way overvalued tonight in my opinion. I think the Hornets are one of the elite teams, at least in the East. Chicago should be much improved, but they can't play defense and as many points as Jalen can score, he cannot keep up with Baron, Mash, Wesley and Alexander by himself. Hopefully, the Hornets rout the Bulls and I can bet on the underdog Bulls next time, but this line is way too low, an extreme over-reaction to the Celtics game.
That should do it for tonight. Fighting the urge to take the Pacers (great depth and talent, but some injury problems right now) and Grizzlies (additions of Gooden and Giricek look very good, and I think the Stackhouse for Rip Hamilton trade is a step back for the Pistons) as I think those lines are a couple of points off, but at +7, not quite enough to make them a play for me. If either goes to 8, I probably won't be able to resist. No totals this early in the season. Good luck everybody. :shrug:
YTD: 4-1 (+390)
Broke about even last night, but I feel good about taking a positive step this evening. Here's what I've got so far:
MIN +2 : Lots of talk about the T-Mac/Hill combo and the 2-0 start for the Magic, but Timberwolves play very tough at home and even though the season just started Tuesday, Orlando will be playing its 3rd game of the year tonight already, and they are on the road. On defense, the Wolves play a nice zone, and Orlando has nothing up front - Nesterovic isn't going to frighten Shaq any time soon, but he, Loren Woods, and Mark Jackson should easily outplay Pat Burke (who?), Andrew DeClerq, and a fat Shawn Kemp. Hill and McGrady can score in bunches, but so can Garnett and Hudson (and maybe Wally if he plays). Minnesota was 29-12 SU at home last year with basically the same team, so I don't think they should be getting points against many teams in the league, including the Magic.
DEN +6.5 : Houston has a lot of potential, but they shouldn't be favored by 6.5 points on the road against anybody right now. The 82 points they scored against the Pacers the other night breaks down like this: Francis - 39, Mobley - 22, rest of team - 21 points. That's not the way to win on the road, but with the Rockets' injury woes, and with Yao just not there yet, they don't have a lot of other options. In their first meeting in Denver last year (with Francis and Mobley in the lineup), the Nuggets whipped the Rockets 108-81. Denver is bad, but they should play tough in their home opener, just as they did Wednesday night in their season opener at Minnesota (see above for MIN record at home) where they fell by only 6 points. When Houston gets healthy, and Ming figures out the NBA game, watch out for the Rockets. But, for now, take advantage of their problems and go against them.
NO -3 : I am extremely disappointed to see this line today. I had really planned on making a lot of early season $$$ betting FOR an undervalued Bulls team that has made some real improvements since this time last year: Jalen and Donyell are great additions, Eddie Robinson is healthy, Jay Williams drafted (13 pts, 7 assists, 7 rebounds in his debut - Yao Ming would have loved to have missed some free throws and still end up with that stat line), Crawford, Hassell, Fizer and Chandler coming off the bench, etc. But, because of the Boston win, this team is way overvalued tonight in my opinion. I think the Hornets are one of the elite teams, at least in the East. Chicago should be much improved, but they can't play defense and as many points as Jalen can score, he cannot keep up with Baron, Mash, Wesley and Alexander by himself. Hopefully, the Hornets rout the Bulls and I can bet on the underdog Bulls next time, but this line is way too low, an extreme over-reaction to the Celtics game.
That should do it for tonight. Fighting the urge to take the Pacers (great depth and talent, but some injury problems right now) and Grizzlies (additions of Gooden and Giricek look very good, and I think the Stackhouse for Rip Hamilton trade is a step back for the Pistons) as I think those lines are a couple of points off, but at +7, not quite enough to make them a play for me. If either goes to 8, I probably won't be able to resist. No totals this early in the season. Good luck everybody. :shrug:
