NBA Mon 031510- Early Thoughts & Value Hunting

[BillyBatts]

Plays

Plays

Posted Record
72-49 W/L
POD's 23-19 (0-3 L3:moon: )

Locked in

Knicks Under 209.5 POD

Jazz-10.5

Lakers Under 224

Clips -2.5


Best of luck fellas, let's kill the books!!:

 

[BillyBatts]

Bill and anyone else:

1. whose your NCAA favorite?
KANSAS
AND I THINK KENTUCKY WILL BE 1ST #1 SEED OUT
2. Who are your 2 through 4 seeds that you think have a shot?
I have W.Va in my Final Four, but still like KSU, GTown as possibilities as well

3. Real long shot to get to final four or elite 8?
Butler, Okie State, ODU, Richmond

My answers:

1. Duke - underrated (no scary athletic teams in their bracket)

2. Ohio State - steady and star power

3. Xavier - good matchups to get through a few games

Just my opinion:violin:

 

[barts185]

This sets up New York for totals play as road teams off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, with the total at 210 or higher are 41-14 UNDER the last 14 years.



The Boston Celtics didn?t show a great deal of energy in being handled by Cleveland 104-90 as seven point underdogs on Sunday afternoon. If that matchup didn?t bring out the best in the Celtics, it would not figure Detroit would either, especially playing their fifth game in a week. Home favorites with a 60 to 70 percent winning record, facing a club with a 25 to 40 percent losing record are 9-33 ATS since 1996.

I like these 2 alot...the 3rd play not as much.

First one I get close, second one, either there are more parameters or something is wrong. I'm guessing there are more parameters since this situation is going to come up a lot more often than 42 times since 1996.


site=away and p:margin>=10 and p:line>0 and total>=210 and season>=1996

SU: 18-31 (-3.1)
ATS: 28-20-1 (1.4) avg line: 4.5
O/U: 11-35-3 (-6.9) avg total: 216.0

since 2006, ou is 3-26-2

site=away and p:margin>=10 and p:line>0 and total>=210 and season>=2006

SU: 12-19 (-2.8)
ATS: 17-13-1 (1.1) avg line: 3.9
O/U: 3-26-2 (-11.7) avg total: 217.4



site=home and line<0 and .6<=tA(W)<=.7 and .25<=oA(W)<=.4 and season>=1996

SU: 487-93 (10.1)
ATS: 276-292-12 (-0.2) avg line: -10.3
O/U: 288-280-12 (0.1) avg total: 194.1

 

[cubboy]

GOOD LUCK GUYS

GOOD LUCK GUYS

PLAYING 2 GAMES TONIGHT..
WIZARDS +11
HORNETS +3.....:0corn .BILLY HOPE THE HANGOVER WASNT TO BAD THE OTHER DAY...:mj06:

 

[Ools]

First one I get close, second one, either there are more parameters or something is wrong. I'm guessing there are more parameters since this situation is going to come up a lot more often than 42 times since 1996.


site=away and p:margin>=10 and p:line>0 and total>=210 and season>=1996

SU: 18-31 (-3.1)
ATS: 28-20-1 (1.4) avg line: 4.5
O/U: 11-35-3 (-6.9) avg total: 216.0

since 2006, ou is 3-26-2

site=away and p:margin>=10 and p:line>0 and total>=210 and season>=2006

SU: 12-19 (-2.8)
ATS: 17-13-1 (1.1) avg line: 3.9
O/U: 3-26-2 (-11.7) avg total: 217.4



site=home and line<0 and .6<=tA(W)<=.7 and .25<=oA(W)<=.4 and season>=1996

SU: 487-93 (10.1)
ATS: 276-292-12 (-0.2) avg line: -10.3
O/U: 288-280-12 (0.1) avg total: 194.1

maybe the detroit 5th game in a week is included

 

[barts185]

one more for you:
NBA teams off a road loss by 10 points or more, against opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more (Clippers lost by 30 at San Antonio Saturday) are 66-34 OVER in next contest.

Can all these trends be off?? :shrug:

EDIT: Line is already up 3 from open -- probably toofar up river for me

To get close to 66-34, had to go to 2004

p:site=away and p:margin<=-10 and op:site=away and op:margin<=-20 and season>=2004

SU: 51-49 (1.1)
ATS: 47-52-1 (0.1) avg line: -1.0
O/U: 64-33-3 (4.7) avg total: 197.1

good cutoff point for effect since 2003 ou was 4-14.

season by season


ATS OU SU season
3-5-1 (3.0) 5-4-0 (10.4) 5-4 (4.56) 2009
12-10-0 (2.5) 17-5-0 (6.2) 14-8 (3.45) 2008
9-12-0 (-1.5) 12-8-1 (4.0) 10-11 (0.10) 2007
8-8-0 (-1.6) 7-9-0 (-2.0) 7-9 (-2.38) 2006
9-10-0 (-0.8) 13-6-0 (5.7) 8-11 (0.89) 2005
6-7-0 (0.0) 10-1-2 (6.1) 7-6 (0.85) 2004
9-9-0 (-2.2) 4-14-0 (-7.6) 9-9 (-1.94) 2003
13-6-0 (5.0) 10-9-0 (3.7) 15-4 (5.63) 2002
9-11-0 (-1.4) 9-10-1 (-0.5) 11-9 (-0.75) 2001
10-10-0 (0.2) 9-11-0 (0.9) 12-8 (1.40) 2000
11-7-0 (3.2) 13-5-0 (5.1) 12-6 (5.11) 1999
7-4-0 (4.1) 6-4-1 (-0.9) 9-2 (5.91) 1998
7-7-0 (0.2) 10-2-2 (3.8) 8-6 (2.93) 1997
9-7-1 (1.8) 13-3-1 (6.1) 10-7 (1.53) 1996
16-8-0 (5.8) 14-10-0 (2.2) 17-7 (7.88) 1995

 

[Joe_Vienna]

19 - 21 kurby
0 - 1 yesterday

Nuggets @ Rockets U216.5 (POD)

BOLTA :toast:
Joe

 

[BillyBatts]

PLAYING 2 GAMES TONIGHT..
WIZARDS +11
HORNETS +3.....:0corn .BILLY HOPE THE HANGOVER WASNT TO BAD THE OTHER DAY...:mj06:

Thanks man, but it was a little rough. Good time had by all though. Good luck tonight (even though you're opposite me on both plays)

 

[T OFF]

trends

trends

NEW YORK at PHILADELPHIA, 7:05 PM
NEW YORK: 8-0 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 4 days
PHILADELPHIA: 7-15 ATS as a favorite

DETROIT at BOSTON, 8:05 PM ET ESPN DETROIT: 17-7 ATS in March
BOSTON: 10-22 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5

DENVER at HOUSTON, 8:35 PM ET
DENVER: 2-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3HOUSTON: 14-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3

WASHINGTON at UTAH, 9:05 PM ET WASHINGTON: 21-8 UNDER in road games
UTAH: 12-3 ATS off a road loss

NEW ORLEANS at LA CLIPPERS, 10:35 PM ET NEW ORLEANS: 0-7 ATS in March
LA CLIPPERS: 10-3 OVER off 2+ consecutive road lossesLA

LAKERS at GOLDEN STATE, 10:35 PM ET ESPN LA LAKERS: 20-10 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3G
OLDEN STATE: 20-6 UNDER when playing with 2 days rest

 

[cubboy]

I SEEN THAT ..HEY AT LEAST ONE OF US WILL DO WELL...GOOD LUCK BUDDY

 

[40seven]

I feel pretty good

I feel pretty good

Had a nice weekend and got some work done today!!!


Nice card tonight BOLTA.

Stones +9!!! Celts win but do not cover no legs, no heart and every one plays hard in Boston, this one is close 4 or 5 points max not 9.


Jazz -10, come on Wiz 3 games and a day to travel, they suck and playing a mad team....Utah by 15-25.

Rocket's +3 They win!

Clippers -2 They win big. Hornets start to fade here...

Dub's just like the Stones, they may lose but they cover tooooooo many points.

BOLTA

 

[Gibson7]

Ok. 1-1 Yesterday.


Pistons +9

Nugs -2.5

Utah UNDER 204.. (seems like a trap)

Lakers OVER 224

Good Luck Fellas!!

 

[JBrilman]

UTAH UNDER 204

UTAH UNDER 204

Hey guys I just wanted to get a consensus of the forum on this play.

UTAH -11 is my only play so far I will probably parlay it with LAL ML -400 so it will pay around +130ish

I am looking at the numbers and they all say Under...

 

[barts185]

maybe the detroit 5th game in a week is included

Boston, not Detroit, is playing their 5th game in a week.

But even including that (edit - updated after I changed the rest parameter)

site=home and line<0 and .6<=tA(W)<=.7 and .25<=oA(W)<=.4 and rest+p:rest+pp:rest+ppp:rest+pppp:rest<=3 and season>=1996

SU: 41-12 (7.8)
ATS: 21-29-3 (-1.8) avg line: -9.7
O/U: 22-31-0 (0.2) avg total: 193.7