Some of our great cappers are anxiously pre-capping Monday's match-ups looking for possible value with the overnight lines. I have nothing yet but if you have thoughts...let it rip!
Ax
Ax
NBA MON 032309 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
Here you go Ax. I'll post the remaining 4 games once the lines come out.
Nothing is jumping out at me for tomorrows card yet, albeit not all of the lines are out yet.
ORL/NYK 213.5 Almost identical to last night
DEN/PHX 237 Does Den play Def., or run w/ the Suns?
PHI/POR 190 Which team(s) show up.
Still waiting on 4 others to be posted. Plenty of time to find the angles though.
Nothing is jumping out at me for tomorrows card yet, albeit not all of the lines are out yet.
ORL/NYK 213.5 Almost identical to last night
DEN/PHX 237 Does Den play Def., or run w/ the Suns?
PHI/POR 190 Which team(s) show up.
Still waiting on 4 others to be posted. Plenty of time to find the angles though.
Thanks Chris
I concur...there isn't anything that catches my eye. I'm going to do the other games after dinner and will post some buy-in numbers if value presents itself. We've some time.
I concur...there isn't anything that catches my eye. I'm going to do the other games after dinner and will post some buy-in numbers if value presents itself. We've some time.
- Mar 19, 2009
- 425
- 0
- 0
I don't know how it held up lately, but at the opening of season there were (at least) 5 times these home-and-home games showed up, and I remember tracking and playing it by going opposite of whatever the scores were in first game. So the play would be Magic cover and over. It went 5-0 sides and 4-1 totals (or 4-1 and 4-1) (if I remember correctly), because I think I had 3-1 with that system. Then I forgot about it, and you just reminded me
My first thought f?r Suns game (while watching them vs Wiz and listening to the commentary) was if I get it at 235, over no doubt. Neither team plays D and Suns let you score fast and alot cuz they can answer it. Something they had said must have triggered that idea.
This was posted by look in the old thread thought it would be helpfull
My first thought f?r Suns game (while watching them vs Wiz and listening to the commentary) was if I get it at 235, over no doubt. Neither team plays D and Suns let you score fast and alot cuz they can answer it. Something they had said must have triggered that idea.
This was posted by look in the old thread thought it would be helpfull
my numbers
CHI @ WAS 199
MIN @ ATL 189
ORL @ NYK 203
MEM @ MIA 199
PHI @ POR 189
DEN @ PHX 226
LAC @ BOS 201
now waiting for the rest of the lines!
from the lines that are out I like ORL @ NYK and DEN @ PHX ! Both Under :moon:
CHI @ WAS 199
MIN @ ATL 189
ORL @ NYK 203
MEM @ MIA 199
PHI @ POR 189
DEN @ PHX 226
LAC @ BOS 201
now waiting for the rest of the lines!
from the lines that are out I like ORL @ NYK and DEN @ PHX ! Both Under :moon:
Last edited:
Are those stats still available to you? I think that would be very helpful in looking at the ORL/NYK game. My initial thought on that game, no research done yet, is that game will go over. Orlando will be more focused on keeping up w/ the fast pace Dantoni will be trying to establish, and we all know that both Orlando and New York can put up the points.
I am leaning towards the over on the DEN/PHX game too, as Denver may ditch the defensive plan, and try to run and gun with Suns. Who knows, could be an over type of night. I am looking forward to seeing what everyone thinks. I'll work on the numbers in a bit, and get back with everyone.
- Mar 18, 2009
- 200
- 0
- 0
I'd agree with your leans on both of those going over. We know the Nuggets need as much motivation as they can get in terms of playing defense. When they see the Suns standing around waiting to get the ball back it'd probably make them do the same IMO.
ax.
ax.
bro.. i like your patience to wait for a good 1 unit games.. like that you not everyday pick a 1 unit game.. this makes you a master.. this has been a problem to me lately.. were sometimes i want fast money.. and i do crazy bets... in this job.. you have to be patience.. good for u bro..
ax.
bro.. i like your patience to wait for a good 1 unit games.. like that you not everyday pick a 1 unit game.. this makes you a master.. this has been a problem to me lately.. were sometimes i want fast money.. and i do crazy bets... in this job.. you have to be patience.. good for u bro..
Thanks Luigi. You can still play like I do for 1/20U. It gets it out of your system until you can make that 1U call.
Let's hope Monday's card gives us something!
Thanks Brother
Ax, what's up buddy? Want to thank you for the LAL play last night. Great 4th quarter!
Tomorrow I'm liking the Port/Phil game. I see a slow tempo with both teams in the 80's. b2b for phil too.
Tomorrow I'm liking the Port/Phil game. I see a slow tempo with both teams in the 80's. b2b for phil too.
- Mar 21, 2009
- 105
- 0
- 0
No, I'm trying to remember which games that were...
Bulls - Sixers 1-1 SUATS, 2-0 o/u
Knicks - Raptors in feb, 1-1 SUATS, 1-1 o/u
Nets - Heat in oct, 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 o/u
Nets - Raps in nov, 1-1SUATS, 1-1 o/u
Jazz - Clips 2-0 SUATS, 0-2 o/u
Suns - Clips 2-0 SUATS, 2-0 o/u
Didn't play all these (went against Clips each time), played Bulls, Raps, Nets...something like that...so this is probably my selective memory or that I just ran across this when it was hitting, because even when I did use it, it was just a notion on the fly as I tend to stay away from systems...just use them to confirm a play.
As for Nuggies, I think I might have heard something like "they will have no problem trying to run with the Suns" or "they can hold up in this tempo" during the commentary (several times probably, as they were talking with Amare and touching on many other things because the game itself was just a question of when will Suns push the pace and run away). It was something like that, but I remember saying to myself, Nuggets @Suns, over. I will still do the proper capping and if I get the good numbers, I'm on it.
Last edited:
- Mar 18, 2009
- 375
- 0
- 0
New Orleans took care of that latent blowout victory (they had been harboring) against the Warriors tonight so that may spell tight contests for the next couple involving them...
Based on initial impressions, I don't think the Orlando/New York game will be as close as the last game - maybe Orlando cranks up its so-called vaunted offense in concert w/ the defensive prowess that Van Gundy teams are supposedly famed for and sends the Knicks reeling?
Philadelphia @ Portland - gut feeling that Portland covers whatever the side spread is...
Be back later.
Based on initial impressions, I don't think the Orlando/New York game will be as close as the last game - maybe Orlando cranks up its so-called vaunted offense in concert w/ the defensive prowess that Van Gundy teams are supposedly famed for and sends the Knicks reeling?
Philadelphia @ Portland - gut feeling that Portland covers whatever the side spread is...
Be back later.
Last edited:
This was my first thought also. I'll have to find numbers to back this up.
Here are my numbers for Monday:
Wolves/Hawks 190
Bulls/Wiz 202
Grizz/Heat 193
Magic/Knicks 215.5
Clips/Celts 201.5
Nuggets/Suns 227.5
76ers/Blazers 191
The main one to catch my eye at first glance is the T'Wolves/Hawks. I think this could have good value as an under.
Wolves/Hawks 190
Bulls/Wiz 202
Grizz/Heat 193
Magic/Knicks 215.5
Clips/Celts 201.5
Nuggets/Suns 227.5
76ers/Blazers 191
The main one to catch my eye at first glance is the T'Wolves/Hawks. I think this could have good value as an under.
ax, ive been on the sidelines for a while and i just wanna thank you for all the insights that you've shared.:toast: ive read that you have been to cebu, nice place. i used to lived there for a while. 
here's something that caught my eye. min@atl 196.5
here's something that caught my eye. min@atl 196.5
JCW, if you look at the past numbers for MIN/ATL in ATL...we shouldn't get our hopes up. I do love this with the right number but it may just come out right where you have it @190 IMHO.
ax, ive been on the sidelines for a while and i just wanna thank you for all the insights that you've shared.:toast: ive read that you have been to cebu, nice place. i used to lived there for a while.
here's something that caught my eye. min@atl 196.5
thank you sir, I was in bacolod but never in cebu.
where did you get this number?
ax, ive been on the sidelines for a while and i just wanna thank you for all the insights that you've shared.:toast: ive read that you have been to cebu, nice place. i used to lived there for a while.
here's something that caught my eye. min@atl 196.5
I like
