NBA MON 032309 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[easterntimezone]

i am from boston. celtics is going to wreck clippers tomorrow by at least 15 pts.

Main reason: We finally have our starters back. No one fucks around when KG is in the game. The bench is going to play hard D during garbage time and continue to score. All the bench players are trying to compete for more minutes. They'll play hard even if Doc sits KG, pierce, Allen. I see a big blowout.

Clippers is just the clippers. Randolph is cancer to the team. B. davis doesn't try.

That's why vegas is having such a hard time coming up with numbers for this game.

Although I'm not as excited about this game, I definitely can see this occurring. Hard to place any faith in a team (Clippers) whose players show up only when they feel like it. Backdoor cover is a concern if double digit line is high (see Pacers, Grizzlies).

 

[easterntimezone]

the very least. see the line coming out (-12) or maybe I'm hoping.

C's this season coming off b2b W's on the road and first game back at home

4-0 SU win by average 14

I'm going to have my homer play anyway but this is a solid wager.

Don't forget that the Clippers beat the Celtics at the tail end of that LONG trip out west - would be confident in saying that the Celtics possess LONG memories.

 

[PickNPop]

Philadelphia's offensive sets: NONE; reliant on turnovers that they generate or are self-inflicted from the other team. Will they have the patience to play a disciplined game against a well-coached (albeit young) team like the Blazers who are at home which (to borrow a footballing/soccer term) is a fortress?

Portland is #6 is the league in fewest turnovers so that should definitely help the cause tomorrow!

And ax is absolutely right - your analysis is amazing!
:hail :hail :hail

 

[axp59]

What you've taught me Ax over the brief time we've interacted and while following your threads is DISCIPLINE - the high of gambling for most people is CHASING LOSSES (adrenalin rush), not the wins... And if you can get beyond that, you're halfway there.

Most likely what makes or breaks any person that chooses to do this for income. It's ok to satisfy that urge but one must feed that demon just enough to keep it under control.
The best thing for me today was to sit on the sidelines but I understand well that I have a little action junkie in me. I'll likely pay for it with the juice but it's no different from treating myself to a ballgame at Fenway where I'm likely to spend hundreds of dollars if I take both my grown boys with me.
My action bets are for entertainment only. It's when you see me going 1U on a card with 10 plays that it's time to stop. I see that a lot. While I am my brother's keeper, I am not his mother. Less that 10% will turn profits doing this and it's a struggle everyday not to join the 90% losing money.
Let's take this thread as an example. While we have many who participate, I can only imagine the countless lurkers and readers looking for plays. I'd like to think that 1 out of every 10 participating or lurking is turning a steady profit. What of the 9? I do my best to stress, one trip a day to the window is enough but most of the time, it falls on deaf ears. :bigear:

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Philadelphia's offensive sets: NONE; reliant on turnovers that they generate or are self-inflicted from the other team.

That's the key imho, they love to run down in transition for easy fastbreak points and had no problems running with Suns (albeit tired at the end) and GSW. The reason they lost those 2 (and are wiining against a run'n'gun "team" like Kings) (besides them being bad) is ball handling. Besides both home teams playing well at home they have good ball handlers in Nash (not really :mj1: , but that team likes to run like crazy and with ppl they have they can be worst att turning over and still win) and Ellis. I like Blake and the way he plays the court, the question is, will Sixers be able to stress out simple mistakes ? They can do it vs good PGs, but just looking over it, I see alot of home wins. They have 3 good away wins this year, vs Hawks, Rockets and Lakers, but everything else was lesser than good teams.
Portland is bottom in TOs, just a tiny bit above Heat and Orleans (with Pistons and Spurs leading the pack).
Portland has good transition D and if taking care of the ball, they have good chances to neutralise Sixers main weapon. Add the embarassing 20p loss away at Philly (where Blake got hurt in the begining) and you have a team that is willing to put a DD win.


I don't get the Magic line, just 5 seem so low now that Knicks have been cold from the 3p range. They won't be able to get anything done post against Howard, so how are they gonna keep it close ? Lotsa emotions last game (nearly a fight broke out), so that might carry over, but other than that... I do see public riding the Magic hard and that line should move up fast....



Edit: all spelling and statistical errors blamed on 4:25am euro time

 

[easterntimezone]

Portland is #6 is the league in fewest turnovers so that should definitely help the cause tomorrow!

:mj06:

PNP -

What Portland demonstrated to me on their road trip was their resiliency - it would be SO easy for young teams to be demoralized after the humiliation they suffered at the hands of a HOT Hawks team at home. Went to Indiana, took care of business. Then stayed competitive against LeBron down Aldridge and Batum - took 'em to OT. Kudos. Then to Milwaukee where Skiles has been keeping the injury-decimated Bucks barely breathing through smoke and mirrors (as to the question whether or not it was the Bulls personnel or Skiles, the answer is the former - as I pointed out in a retort in a post @ C*vers, Skiles willed himself into a player @ MSU - not the most athletically gifted, but hard-nosed, tenacious, TOUGH - wanted the Bulls to do that, but too many in love w/ the offensive end: Gordon, Thomas, etc.). Portland dealt w/ the Bucks handily - not w/o giving Milwaukee the means of creeping back, but never really threatening.

So now it comes back to Portland - young team back, bills to pay, family to reconnect w/ - letdown, right? Last 3 games on the road east hints to me NO...

 

[easterntimezone]

And ax is absolutely right

Thanks as well - BUT looking for more from you, bro'... 'Cause like I wrote last night, more (NOT less) information/opinions/etc. MATTERS and helps.

 

[easterntimezone]

Forgot to add that Blazers got taken to the shed back in January in Philadelphia: 100-79. Payback in mind? If they don't remember, McMillen will.

 

[easterntimezone]

Most likely what makes or breaks any person that chooses to do this for income. It's ok to satisfy that urge but one must feed that demon just enough to keep it under control.
The best thing for me today was to sit on the sidelines but I understand well that I have a little action junkie in me. I'll likely pay for it with the juice but it's no different from treating myself to a ballgame at Fenway where I'm likely to spend hundreds of dollars if I take both my grown boys with me.
My action bets are for entertainment only. It's when you see me going 1U on a card with 10 plays that it's time to stop. I see that a lot. While I am my brother's keeper, I am not his mother. Less that 10% will turn profits doing this and it's a struggle everyday not to join the 90% losing money.
Let's take this thread as an example. While we have many who participate, I can only imagine the countless lurkers and readers looking for plays. I'd like to think that 1 out of every 10 participating or lurking is turning a steady profit. What of the 9? I do my best to stress, one trip a day to the window is enough but most of the time, it falls on deaf ears. :bigear:

Ax -

:hail

If it's going to be a primary source of income, one has to DIVORCE himself from fan tendencies; gotta treat it like a business and business primary concern is capital.

Everyone would rather get rich quick... Who wouldn't? But the aphorism that it's a marathon always gets short shrift. Cliches are there for a reason, folks.

I once in a blue moon place a < $ 5 bet on a 6 to 8 game parlay for the hell of it. Have hit a couple on occasion, but mostly do so to sate the action junkie and stroke the ego - hopefully not to the point where arrogance supersedes quiet confidence.

 

[easterntimezone]

That's the key imho, they love to run down in transition for easy fastbreak points and had no problems running with Suns (albeit tired at the end) and GSW. The reason they lost those 2 (and are wiining against a run'n'gun "team" like Kings) (besides them being bad) is ball handling. Besides both home teams playing well at home they have good ball handlers in Nash (not really :mj1: , but that team likes to run like crazy and with ppl they have they can be worst att turning over and still win) and Ellis. I like Blake and the way he plays the court, the question is, will Sixers be able to stress out simple mistakes ? They can do it vs good PGs, but just looking over it, I see alot of home wins. They have 3 good away wins this year, vs Hawks, Rockets and Lakers, but everything else was lesser than good teams.
Portland is bottom in TOs, just a tiny bit above Heat and Orleans (with Pistons and Spurs leading the pack).
Portland has good transition D and if taking care of the ball, they have good chances to neutralise Sixers main weapon. Add the embarassing 20p loss away at Philly (where Blake got hurt in the begining) and you have a team that is willing to put a DD win.


I don't get the Magic line, just 5 seem so low now that Knicks have been cold from the 3p range. They won't be able to get anything done post against Howard, so how are they gonna keep it close ? Lotsa emotions last game (nearly a fight broke out), so that might carry over, but other than that... I do see public riding the Magic hard and that line should move up fast....



Edit: all spelling and statistical errors blamed on 4:25am euro time

Concur entirely on the 76ers; they THRIVE on chaos - and have NO legitimate 3 point shooters save for an aging Donyell Marshall (UConn stand up). Blazers don't get rattled and when all else fails, ball is in Roy's hands who plays at HIS tempo and no one else's - notice how he lulls his defender when he rocks back and forth, only to blow by suddenly or move either left or right to space himself for a J.

Orlando: wrote earlier to Ax that I think this game has the potential for a blowout; can't imagine that this game will be as tightly contested as in Orlando.

:toast:

 

[Ace_Ace]

Awesome work guys .
Thanks again for the hard work.

This is a stat I found :


Philly's last 18 games have been covered by the following side (last to latest) -


Fav-dog-fav-dog-fav-dog-fav-dog-fav-dog-fav-dog-fav-dog-fav-dog-fav-dog

Today Philly was fav against SACTOWN & covered as -5 road FAV


Philly is a +8 pt DOG against Portland

Will the streak contiue ?

:shrug:

 

[axp59]

Awesome work guys .
Thanks again for the hard work.

This is a stat I found :


Philly's last 18 games have been covered by the following side (last to latest) -


Fav-dog-fav-dog-fav-dog-fav-dog-fav-dog-fav-dog-fav-dog-fav-dog-fav-dog

Today Philly was fav against SACTOWN & covered as -5 road FAV


Philly is a +8 pt DOG against Portland

Will the streak contiue ?

:shrug:

ace, can you please explain? I'm lost here. Thanks

 

[easterntimezone]

Final note on the Blazers; when they go East, they don't change the TIME that their circadian rhythm runs on - i.e. they treat their stay on the East and Midwest as if they were still on the Left Coast. Meals, practice, sleep, etc. - all in the hopes that it doesn't affect them as violently when they're out on the road or when they return.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

my quick numbers

Bulls 199 (depending on Butler and injuries. I hope to see 207+ due to their high profile games and alot of winning vs good teams, but that feels like wishful thinking. I'm thinking it openst @204...)

Celts 192 and under (big fav, I imagine they wanna put up a show for the crowd after KG is back home. They score 100ish and keep Clips to mid 80s...sounds about right ?)


good night from me fellas


edit: :sadwave:

edit 2:

 

[axp59]

I love edit capabilities...

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Trying to figuer out which smilies to use, but im half a sleep alreayd... later all...bol all

 

[easterntimezone]

Trying to figuer out which smilies to use, but im half a sleep alreayd... later all...bol all

Likewise... :SIB

 

[ebxchange]

would Portland be a good play tomorrow ?

would Portland be a good play tomorrow ?

Will Phily be blown out tomorrow in Portland, since they won big tonight against the Kings ?

Possibility..... still looking into it a bit but my lean is Port -7.5

 

[easterntimezone]

I love edit capabilities...

Ax (PNP - and others) -

Gonna shut it down and take care of some last minute stuff before heading to sleep; going to tail and place 1/2 unit on the Hawks U - Timberwolves' tired legs (it'll be their 5th game in 7 days w/ an undermanned squad) may very well spell less baskets from the 'Wolves and a slower tempo to keep them remotely in contention in this game.

Haven't had a chance to check e-mail so if you replied, will get back to you tomorrow.

Catch up you guys in the morning.

 

[axp59]

NITE ETZ