NBA MON 032309 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
Slice, I hope you had a good day with your family.
I'm dying to find some overnight accu numbers. While I don't completely rely on these figures, they are very useful in narrowing down the games I cap. Slicer!!! if you see this early enough in the am, can you please post or email.
Thank you sir!
I'm dying to find some overnight accu numbers. While I don't completely rely on these figures, they are very useful in narrowing down the games I cap. Slicer!!! if you see this early enough in the am, can you please post or email.
Thank you sir!
Good Moring Ax, I pick one of your game NO Under to bet yeasterday and again :toast: :toast:
Thanks again, and locked to Min Under today.
Again, GLto us
Thanks again, and locked to Min Under today.
Again, GLto us
- Mar 18, 2009
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G man, i hear what ypor saying. Iam a Celtic fan also, old school. ( Bird and company) but if i recall last time da Clipp. were here we were 14/ 15 point fav. and we lost game out right. not saying its going to happen again but, i suggest you should run through some figures. NO DISRESPECT INTENDED. I hope the CEES beat them by ( 33 ) BIRDS #
OK won with OKC in a revenge matchup...There is 2 plays for MON 3/23/09 for the trend below.
Play on the FAV in revenge of a previous match up that they lost by 20pts or more. 15-1 SU/13-2-1 ATS since 01/01/2009
PLAY ON -- POR-7.5 and CHI-4
P:margin<=-20 and 20090101<=date and F
Play on the FAV in revenge of a previous match up that they lost by 20pts or more. 15-1 SU/13-2-1 ATS since 01/01/2009
PLAY ON -- POR-7.5 and CHI-4
P:margin<=-20 and 20090101<=date and F
PHI this season on a true on the road b2b where both games are away from home
0-4 SU losing by an average of 9 points
lost by 10 against ORL 11/06
lost by 2 SAS 1/3
lost by 15 OKC 3/8
lost by 10 PHO 3/18
Portland this season hosting a team on the tail end of a true road b2b
10-2 SU winning by an average of 9 points
but don't be fooled by this...take a close look
MIN won by 4 11/08
CHI won by 42 11/19
SAC won by 1 11/24
NOH won by 15 11/28
ORL lost by -1 12/09
TOR won by 13 12/27
CHA won by 14 1/28
OKC won by 14 2/11
MEM won by 4 2/18
IND won by 2 3/4
MIN won by 2 3/7
DAL lost by -4 3/11
that 42 point wins masks the reality and skews this average win number. given today's number of -7, they would only be 5-7 ATS in these SU wins.
All I'm saying is be careful before you unload on this game. This season in the NBA, teams coming off a long road trip of at least 5 games have been caught with their pants down on their first home game back. Sure SU is 20-10 but they are only winning by an average of 3 points. ATS is 16-13-1 with an average line of -3 and failing to cover this small number by simply winning by 3 (push).
Just be careful since I'm seeing a lot of excitement for POR here. First game back is a big letdown spot.
Damn, 100k. he must be one lucky well-informed guy.
thanks for the heads up. Clips also won in ATL by 20+ pts in the same month.
maybe the stars were aligned just right for them during those two game.
we'll see what the spread is for the C's tomorrow. maybe i'll stay away from betting on the game being a fanatic C fan and all. haha.
- Mar 18, 2009
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Ax -
Just checking back in before I go to sleep; thanks for running the numbers on this - that 42 point beatdown of the Bulls definitely throws a wrench in the works (the bell distribution really must look warped); if you get a chance since I am beginning to zone out, can you find out what sort of pattern San Antonio was in when they get beat heavily by Portland?; I know they won HUGE the next night versus the Clippers, but don't remember how their Rodeo road trip was structured this year.
Will definitely go back and explore the Orlando game more closely in light of this.
Thanks again and 'night.
ETZ, SAS was on Gm 1 of 3 on the road when they got beat by 18 in POR then came back on a b2b and absolutely put a beating on the Clipps by 28. They had a day rest and lost to the Mavs by 5 going 1-2 on this very short road trip. FYI, came home and killed the Wiz by 22 first game back at the AT&T.
Not sure if that was what you were looking for. If not let me know and I'll try to find out. Here's an interesting note from researching this. SAS games this season after they lose by at least 15 have gone under 4 of 5 times. the only over was a 2OT game in MIN on 11/5. That was the first...since, all 4 games have gone under by 23, 19, 16, 1. Taht last one was the same game where they beat the Clipps by 28.
If that wasn't what you were looking for. I still learned a lot.
My o/u plays for today are:
1) Minnesota/Atlanta under 196.5 (1.2 units)
2) Philadelphia/Portland under 190 (0.9 units)
3) Orlando/New York over 213.5 (0.6 units)
I put these games in a 2/3 system play also.
1) Minnesota/Atlanta under 196.5 (1.2 units)
2) Philadelphia/Portland under 190 (0.9 units)
3) Orlando/New York over 213.5 (0.6 units)
I put these games in a 2/3 system play also.
Transfered from Pro Hoops to follow the great Axp.
I agree on the Atlanta play.
I reckon Miami over 195 is a certainty vs Memphis. What about you goodself axp?
I agree on the Atlanta play.
I reckon Miami over 195 is a certainty vs Memphis. What about you goodself axp?
You make make sound like a magician
but thank you for the complimentI'm not comfortable making a call on the MEM/MIA game. If you only had MEM to cap...sure.. consistent, they lose 100-93 which takes this game under but without room for error or cushion whatsoever. Now throw Miami in the picture and you really don't know. They couldn't buy a win on the road recently until they beat are markedly improved DET which can't win at home on a Sunday BTW...
If you need action on this game because you are a homer for one of these teams, make it light. Otherwise, plenty of other vlaue on the board for today!
GL
You make make sound like a magician
I enjoy reading what other people think about games. You are quite a good read with your analysis.
The thing with Miami is that they play well at home, O Neal seems to be getting used to the side and producing numbers.
I might skip this one.
I think I might look at ORL -5.5, PHX -3.5, MIN/ATL U195 and hope CHI and/or BOS open with a low spread to cover.
I don't understand this number at all...well maybe I do but everything inside me tells me this is wrong. I think this one is in for a good size move.
