Sorry friend, no offense was intended, it was tongue-in-cheek. Statements like "Computers are untrustworthy!" I believed were obvious in intention, but I'll be more careful in the future.
NBA MON 032309 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
Sorry friend, no offense was intended, it was tongue-in-cheek. Statements like "Computers are untrustworthy!" I believed were obvious in intention, but I'll be more careful in the future.
- Mar 18, 2009
- 375
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Minnesota/Atlanta:
The 'Wolves are what they are - McHale is living out the version of youth-originated hell that he laid upon his friend Wittman before Glen Taylor decided that kismet was in order. I still don't think they're a selfish unit (Telfair excepted), but hard to rely on kids to carry your wager through.
Hawks - I'm pretty sure their recent hot run coincides w/ Joe Johnson's stats enjoying an upward incline; Bibby, despite fishing for a big contract for next year, hasn't been as reliable a complement to Johnson although he's gone through sporadic stretches where his 3 point jumper is $.
Side - NO PLAY.
Have already placed a 1/2 unit on the U, will buy the remainder very shortly - this is predicated on the 'Wolves' young, but tired legs: AN EDUCATED GUESS is all that claim is, folks.
Chicago/Washington:
Bulls are an enigma - obvious they can score - Gordon, Thomas, Salmons - BUT they can't defend - and quietly shoved a coach (Skiles) who stresses defensive principles out the door in favor of another (Del Negro - another yeoman like player at NC State that enjoyed a comfortable journeyman's career in the NBA - Nate McMillen being the other) who also prefers 'em. Saddle him w/ assistants in Del Harris and Bernie Bickerstaff, neither of whom enjoyed a credible run as a head coach.
Washington - season was LONG over months ago; they're playing their youngsters to get them some experience. McGee w/ girth is promising - and hopefully dislodges the malcontent and oft-injured Haywood. Gotta be wearisome to think about Arenas as a teammate - injured and his reports of his return proving to be continually anticlimactic - his blog contents have been the most exciting part of Gilbert Arenas since... forever, it seems. Crittendon is NOT a true point and struggles mightily. Honest effort from Jamison and Butler's lingering injuries, however minor or major, speak to an overall resignation about the optimism or lack thereof.
Side - NO PLAY.
Total: Undecided - Bulls can score - and against a POROUS Washington defense, hardly a challenge. Will the Wizards be anemic once more offensively and will the Bulls comply by even playing a modicum of defense?
Be back w/ some other musings on the remainder or subset of games - Orlando/New York GUARANTEED (NOT the game, just the writeup).
The 'Wolves are what they are - McHale is living out the version of youth-originated hell that he laid upon his friend Wittman before Glen Taylor decided that kismet was in order. I still don't think they're a selfish unit (Telfair excepted), but hard to rely on kids to carry your wager through.
Hawks - I'm pretty sure their recent hot run coincides w/ Joe Johnson's stats enjoying an upward incline; Bibby, despite fishing for a big contract for next year, hasn't been as reliable a complement to Johnson although he's gone through sporadic stretches where his 3 point jumper is $.
Side - NO PLAY.
Have already placed a 1/2 unit on the U, will buy the remainder very shortly - this is predicated on the 'Wolves' young, but tired legs: AN EDUCATED GUESS is all that claim is, folks.
Chicago/Washington:
Bulls are an enigma - obvious they can score - Gordon, Thomas, Salmons - BUT they can't defend - and quietly shoved a coach (Skiles) who stresses defensive principles out the door in favor of another (Del Negro - another yeoman like player at NC State that enjoyed a comfortable journeyman's career in the NBA - Nate McMillen being the other) who also prefers 'em. Saddle him w/ assistants in Del Harris and Bernie Bickerstaff, neither of whom enjoyed a credible run as a head coach.
Washington - season was LONG over months ago; they're playing their youngsters to get them some experience. McGee w/ girth is promising - and hopefully dislodges the malcontent and oft-injured Haywood. Gotta be wearisome to think about Arenas as a teammate - injured and his reports of his return proving to be continually anticlimactic - his blog contents have been the most exciting part of Gilbert Arenas since... forever, it seems. Crittendon is NOT a true point and struggles mightily. Honest effort from Jamison and Butler's lingering injuries, however minor or major, speak to an overall resignation about the optimism or lack thereof.
Side - NO PLAY.
Total: Undecided - Bulls can score - and against a POROUS Washington defense, hardly a challenge. Will the Wizards be anemic once more offensively and will the Bulls comply by even playing a modicum of defense?
Be back w/ some other musings on the remainder or subset of games - Orlando/New York GUARANTEED (NOT the game, just the writeup).
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Ax
Can you have another thread with your picks - i would be interrested to see who you are on for each day.
Thanks
Can you have another thread with your picks - i would be interrested to see who you are on for each day.
Thanks
Very respectable what you guys do. I've been a lurker for a while. Hope I will have something to contribute toward playoffs or NFL.
Ax, I pm you at **ver under username NUNONG. Can you add me to your friend list if you don't mind? Would not want to miss all these valuable discussion. Thanks.
Ax, I pm you at **ver under username NUNONG. Can you add me to your friend list if you don't mind? Would not want to miss all these valuable discussion. Thanks.
1U MIN @ ATL U196
1/2U CHI @ WAS U208.5
1/2U ORL @ NYK U215.5
1/3U DEN @ PHX U238
BOL :kiss:
Joe
1/2U CHI @ WAS U208.5
1/2U ORL @ NYK U215.5
1/3U DEN @ PHX U238
BOL :kiss:
Joe
my 2 cents on the den/pho totals game: stay away! so much value on the other games.
Gut feeling is pho over. But i am not playing it!
Gut feeling is pho over. But i am not playing it!
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I love lawyers and I hate lawyers. OK, give me time to catch up, I'll be sneaking in and out most of the afternoon. If I have something constructive to add, I will. Thanks guys!
Dude I see the most value in this game :scared , so I had to play it! Wouldn't there be our little nice community/team it would be a full unit play or at least 1/2U! Just
have to trust my numbers :box2:
But I'm also a newb so I don't advice anybody to tail this one!
There is Ax you can tail! :thefinger
Just need action on this one, also for the ORL @ NYK game!
:00hour
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you're probably at minimum value with this number but I couldn't sit and hope it goes up. geez, tough one. I don't think this has bottomed out yet.
that atlanta line keeps dropping.......194.5 now.......i took the under for was/bulls game......but with the slice write-up im little nervous.....its tru bulls can score.....
Slice, I'm feeling better and better about my own card. Looking good bro :toast: ...Oh, I'm sorry...I meant S m o o t h ...LOL
Damn, keep us posted will ya? Can you let us know how your mathematical models stand up against the published lines and maybe just a short description of how you project games with these models. Thank you, always looking for an edge!!
hey ax i have the atl/minn game at 195 should i wait and see if it goes up a little or should i still take it at that
This was in the Professional Gamblers Newsletter this morning Regarding the Atlanta Game today...
We're forecasting the Hawks will win this game by roughly 10 points, maybe something like 95-85. We more or less agree with the posted pointspread (11.5) and moneyline, but we think the posted over/under line (196.5) is vulnerable. We think the total score in this game figures to be within three or four baskets of 180 points. We'd take the 'Under' in this game down to a posted line of 192.0.
~Milton
We're forecasting the Hawks will win this game by roughly 10 points, maybe something like 95-85. We more or less agree with the posted pointspread (11.5) and moneyline, but we think the posted over/under line (196.5) is vulnerable. We think the total score in this game figures to be within three or four baskets of 180 points. We'd take the 'Under' in this game down to a posted line of 192.0.
~Milton
Crockie, I'm weighing CHI heavily here and really think they can take advantage of this WAS team. This play was based mostly on the models I run and also, I'm getting almost neutral trends. The stats I come up with also falls in the range where it's hit about 70%. I'm still only in 1/2U on this so it's not my POD.
I try to stay away from just posting picks. There seems to be plenty of that anywhere one goes. I do post one POD a day for accountability. So many people get hung up on records and such that I felt I needed that to justify my request for feedback. Unfortunately, it is not here. We do post our plays here and I know it may be some work sorting things out and finding the play but this thread is mostly a workplace for us and as with any work space, it does tend to get messy at times but we always know where everything is.
GL..
joe, no disrepect intended on your pick.
I got burned by pho so many times picking under when they play at home.They play a lot faster at home. Denver does slightly play better D this year with chauncy. But i don't think as a team, they can control the suns' tempo at home.
denver and Pho are two teams on my list to stay away from.
I got burned by pho so many times picking under when they play at home.They play a lot faster at home. Denver does slightly play better D this year with chauncy. But i don't think as a team, they can control the suns' tempo at home.
denver and Pho are two teams on my list to stay away from.
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